Presentation given by me as speaker and panel member at Argus Global Gasoline 2019.

1. Understanding the naphtha-gasoline mix
to improve octane levels and fuel quality
Neil Watt
Crude and Refined Products, BB Energy
Argus Gasoline Conference
April 2019

2. Overview
1. Exploring current naphtha supply and demand dynamics
2. Looking at the difference between naphtha and ethanol in supplying incremental octanes
3. U.S gasoline background
4. What blends can be made to improve octane levels and fuel quality
5. Assessing product flows
April 2019 2

3. 1. Exploring current naphtha supply and demand
dynamics
April 2019 3

4. Cuts to Medium/Heavy grades, increasing light
production globally (Part I)
April 2019 4
•Increasing U.S light crude production2,5
•Cuts concentrated in medium/heavy
grades3
•Russia potentially reaches quota in April/
May4
•Mandated Canadian production cuts and
investment uncertainty
-1
-1
0
1
1
2
U.S Russia Iraq Canadian Heavy Saudi Arabia Venezuela Iran (ex
condensate)
Key Changes in Crude Production by Country from 2018 to 2019 YTD (Mbd)
(Canadian National Energy Board1, EIA2, Refinitiv3)

5. Cuts to Medium/Heavy grades, increasing light
production globally (Part II)
April 2019 5

6. Trend towards increasing production of light crude
in U.S (Part I)
April 2019 6
•Productivity in Permian, Eagle Ford stable while
Bakken improving5
•With increasing rig additions should continue
to see production increases through to year end
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
U.S Production Key Basins (kbd)
(EIA5)
Bakken Region Total
production
Eagle Ford Region Total
production
Permian Region Total
production
Lower 48 States Crude Production (kbd) (EIA2)
Dec-17 Dec-18 Δ YoY
API 40+ 5,301 6,581 1,280
API 50+ 925 1,020 95

7. Trend towards increasing production of light crude
in U.S (Part II)
April 2019 7
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21
Key Permian-USGC Pipeline Capacity Additions (kbd)
(Company Reports7-22)
Jupiter
Permian Gulf Coast Pipeline (ETP)
EPIC Crude pipeline (Texstar)
Gray Oak (P66/Enbridge)
EPIC - temporary NGL conversion (Texstar)
Cactus 2 (PAA)
Seminole NGL to Crude Conversion (ETP)

8. Increasing acceptance of light U.S grades (Part I)
April 2019 8

9. Increasing acceptance of light U.S grades (Part II)
April 2019 9
•Increasingly wide acceptance of U.S grades;
market increasingly resilient and responsive
•IMO 2020 Sulphur challenges
•WTI FOB premiums to screen to narrow with
logistics and WTI/Brent with it

10. Naphtha petchem economics (Part I)
April 2019 10

11. Naphtha petchem economics (Part II)
April 2019 11
New LPG Export Facilities Canada and U.S (Company Reports, Reporting23-27)
Name Company Country Capacity (kbd) Startup
Mariner East (Marcus Hook) ETP (SXL) U.S 275 Q1, 19
RIPET AltaGas Canada 35 Q2, 19
Enterprise Houston Ship Channel EPD U.S 175 Q3, 19
Galena Park Train 6 Targa U.S 100 Q3,Q9
Galena Park Train 7 Targa U.S 110 Q1, 20
Prince Rupert Pembina Canada 25 Q2, 20
Galena Park Train 8 Targa U.S 110 Q2, 20

12. Chinese Petrochemical Integration and PDH
Expansions
April 2019 12
•Increasingly integrated Chinese petchem
complex competing with less advantaged North
Asian crackers28
•5.7 Mtpa additional integrated ethylene
capacity29-33
•Over 2 Mtpa PDH capacity expansions this
year34-35

13. Plastic demand destruction: Some Drivers…
April 2019 13
Packaging represents ~ 30 vol% of plastics in use and ~40% of European plastics conversion demand36…
•Environmental activism goes mainstream ( e.g ”Blue Planet”37 and “Schools Climate Strike”38)
•Increasingly sustainability conscious consumers (e.g millennials39)
•UN: Plastic Ocean Waste resolution40
•China: pollution (“one of three major threats”) to be tackled by new agencies41
•EU: 100% recyclable and 25% recycled plastics by 202542
•California: First state to enact ban on single-use plastic bags at large retail stores43
•Scotland: 5 pence charge on carrier bags led to 80% reduction in bags used within a year.44 Similar policy
now in England

14. Plastic demand destruction: Business Response
April 2019 14
•Major companies adopting increasingly
ambitious sustainability targets45-53…including
biggest plastic polluters
•World’s largest plastic straw producer
investing in bioplastics production54

15. Naphtha Demand Trends of Major Consumers
April 2019 15
•Rising demand in China (increasingly not
marketable naphtha)
•Stagnant demand growth or decline in other
major demand centers recently55, 56

16. 2. Looking at the difference between naphtha and
ethanol on supplying incremental octanes
April 2019 16

17. Comparison of naphtha and ethanol specifications
April 2019 17
Density (SG) Sulphur (ppm) Aromatics (vol %) Olefins (vol %) IBP (deg C ) T10 deg C (deg C ) T50 deg C (deg C ) T90 deg C (deg C ) FBP (deg C ) RON RVP (kpa)
Ethanol 0.791 0 0 0 80.0 78.5 78.5 78.5 78.5 113 180
Amuay Heavy Naphtha 0.749 176 11.5 1.07 85.0 99.7 119.2 147.2 171.1 56 16
Arzew Naphtha 0.725 4 12.75 1.3 33.7 48.5 107.6 166.8 181.6 51 37
Bonny Condensate 0.692 15 5 0.1 30.4 43.7 64.0 121.3 199.6 74 85
Huelva 0.732 190 11.2 0.4 41.2 68.9 103.6 132.5 156.4 66 37
Jose NGL 0.662 10 2.85 0.6 33.3 41.0 49.1 85.9 120.4 72 88
La Pampilla 0.718 130 5 1.06 41.9 67.9 94.7 123.9 162.4 66 41
Mamonal 0.727 198 8.4 4.9 45.8 69.3 106.4 148.2 173.8 65 35
Milazzo LCN 0.726 11 18.5 23.1 37.0 52.4 92.0 154.7 184.0 88 54
Open Spec Naphtha 0.672 67 0.046 0.008 34.2 55.5 68.0 82.0 153.0 69 78
Punta Cardon 0.678 14.4 0.21 0.5 33.9 48.3 62.5 88.6 128.4 66 71
Skikda Splitter 0.687 5 3.9 0.5 35.0 47.8 73.3 128.3 157.8 62 70

18. Naphtha Reforming
April 2019 18
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
Jan-13
Aug-13
Mar-14
Oct-14
May-15
Dec-15
Jul-16
Feb-17
Sep-17
Apr-18
Nov-18
Utilisation of Available Reforming Capacity, U.S and PADD III
(EIA57, BB Energy proprietary data and estimates28)
US
PADD III
14.80%
14.90%
15.00%
15.10%
15.20%
15.30%
15.40%
15.50%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2018 2019 2020
CDU and Reforming Capacity Additions in U.S, Euro, Asia
(BB Energy proprietary data28)
Reforming (kbd) CDU (kbd) Reforming/CDU Installed Capacity (%)

19. Ethanol Blends: Octane Gain (Part I)
April 2019 19
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
RON
Ethanol Blend (vol%)
Ethanol Blends and Octane
(Stein58)
98 Ron Blendstock
95 Ron Blendstock
92 Ron Blendstock
88 Ron Blendstock
82 Ron Blendstock
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Octane Blend Gain
Ethanol Blend (vol%)
Octane Blend Gain/Ethanol (vol%)
(Derived from Stein58)
95 Ron Blendstock
92 Ron Blendstock
88 Ron Blendstock
82 Ron Blendstock

20. Ethanol Blends: Octane Gain (Part II)
April 2019 20
•Olefins/aromatics composition significantly
influences ethanol octane blend gain60
•Ethanol octane blend gain differential 1.7
between high/low aromatics with identical
starting neat Octane60
80
85
90
95
100
105
0 10 15 30
RON
Ethanol (vol%)
Ron and Ethanol by Ratio Aromatics/Olefins
(Derived from CRC59)
2 Aromatics/Olefins
3 Aromatics/Olefins
5 Aromatics/Olefins

21. Ethanol Blends: RVP
April 2019 21
•Significant decreases in RVP occur beyond
20%61
•Very small decrease from E10 to E15

22. 3. U.S Gasoline Background
April 2019 22

23. U.S Gasoline Background: Tier III (Part I)
April 2019 23
•EPA estimated only 15% of the pool would have
a compliance cost of around 1-2 cpg67
•But in December 2017, average sulfur of the U.S
gasoline pool was 22.4 ppm vs 10 ppm limit68
•Small refinery exemption expires this year69
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Compliance Cost (cpg)
Sulfur over 10 ppm Tier 3 Threshold (ppm)
Tier 3 Estimated Compliance Costs by Sulfur Excess vs EPA Estimates
(EPA67, BB Energy estimates)
Compliance Cost (Standard Tier 3)
Compliance Cost (Early Tier 3)
10% Production (EPA Estimate)
55% Production (EPA Estimate)
15% Production (EPA Estimate)

24. U.S Gasoline Background: Tier III (Part IIa)
April 2019 24
•Decrease in sulfur along with olefins => less
octane + ethanol octane blend gain less
•More hydrotreatment capacity planned,
tendency to increase severity of hydrotreatment
likely to continue28
•Winter RFG 3 ppm higher than summer grade69
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sulfur VWA (ppm)
Olefins VWA (vol%)
U.S Gasoline Pool Characteristics Tier 3
(EPA69)
Olefins VWA (vol%)
Sulfur VWA (ppm)

25. U.S Gasoline Background: Tier III (Part IIb)
April 2019 25
•Decrease in sulfur along with olefins => less
octane + ethanol octane blend gain less
•More hydrotreatment capacity planned,
tendency to increase severity of hydrotreatment
likely to continue28
•Winter RFG 3 ppm higher than summer grade69
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sulfur VWA (ppm)
Olefins and Aromatics VWA (vol%)
U.S Gasoline Pool Characteristics 2013-2017
(EPA69)
Aromatics VWA (vol%)
Olefins VWA (vol%)
Sulfur VWA (ppm)

26. U.S Gasoline Background: Octane Supply
April 2019 26
•Tighter sulfur standards => degrades octane in
catcracker stream
•Insignificant octane related capacity additions
and available reforming capacity
•Imbalance of light crude/condensate with lower
octane gasoline fraction
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
U.S Cumulative Alky and Hydro Capacity Additions 2016 to 2021 (kbd)
(BB Energy proprietary data23)
Gasoline/Naphtha
Hydrotreaters
Alkylation Units

27. U.S Gasoline Background: Octane Demand (Part I)
April 2019 27
•Efficiency standards + trend for higher horsepower
•Uncertainty over 2021/25 efficiency standards63
(legal cases probably not settled until 2021)
•Lobbying activity for 95 Ron standard64
•Increased export demand for octane out of USG,
i.e Mexico
200
210
220
230
240
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Horsepower (HP)
Real World Fuel Efficiency (mpg)
Horsepower and Efficiency by Model Year
(EPA62)
Real-World FE (mpg)
Horsepower (HP)

28. U.S Gasoline Background: Octane Demand (Part II)
April 2019 28
Significant emissions reduction impact from
higher efficiency (with political dimensions)
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
440
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real World CO2 (g/mil)
Real World Fuel Efficiency (mpg)
CO2 Emissions per mile and Efficiency by Model Year
(EPA62)
Real-World FE (mpg)
Real-World CO2 (g/
mi)

29. U.S Gasoline Background: Octane Demand (Part III)
April 2019 29
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
Premium differentials to Regular and Midgrade
(EIA66)
Premium-Regular (cpg) Premium-Midgrade (cpg)
8.50%
9.00%
9.50%
10.00%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%
12.00%
12.50%
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
Jan-12 Aug-12 Mar-13 Oct-13 May-14 Dec-14 Jul-15 Feb-16 Sep-16 Apr-17 Nov-17 Jun-18
Evolution of U.S Premium Grade Sales
(EIA65)
Premium Gasoline Sales (kbd) Premium Portion of Pool (%)

30. 4. What Blends can be made to improve octane
levels and fuel quality
April 2019 30

31. E15 (U.S): Blend Benefits
April 2019 31
Ethanol superior octane booster:
•high RON
• economic benefit
•benign environmental effects
•decreases sulfur in gasoline pool
•slightly lower RVP than E1061
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Ethanol Toluene MTBE Methanol Reformate C4 Alkylate
Sulfur (ppm)
RON
Gasoline Blend Components Sulfur and RON
RON
Sulfur (ppm)
Specification Density (SG) Sulphur (ppm) Aromatics (vol %) Olefins (vol %) Benzene (vol %) RON RVP (kpa)
Ethanol 0.791 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 113 180
Toluene 0.82 1 0.98 1.0% 0.0% 120 20
MTBE 0.746 1 0.01 1.0% 0.0% 117 60
Methanol 0.78 1 0 0.0% 0.0% 113 475
Reformate 0.8301 3 0.681 1.0% 2.0% 102 24
C4 0.575 2 0.01 1.0% 0.2% 95 380
Alkylate 0.6979 2 0.021 1.0% 0.2% 94 50

32. E15 (U.S): Practical Considerations (Part I)
April 2019 32
• Benefits to the consumer relatively small
compared to total outlay on fuel costs
• Lack of availability and price visibility
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Estimated E15 Savings (cent/mile)
Ethanol and RBOB flat price (cent/gal)
E15 Savings and flat price
(EIA66, E85Prices70, BB Energy estimates)
Ethanol (cent/gal)
RBOB (cent/gal)
E15 Saving cent/mile

33. E15 (U.S): Practical Considerations (Part II)
April 2019 33
•Small portion of the fleet estimated to be
E15 approved by manufacturer
•High cost of adoption and opportunity cost
to retail stations74, 75
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
% New sales and Estimated proportion of fleet E15 approved by manufacturer
(Bureau of Transportation Statistics71, NADA72, OICA73, BB Energy estimates)
% E15 Approved
Vehicles/Total Fleet
% New Sales E15
Approved by
Manufacturer

34. E10 (China): Implementation Practicalities
April 2019 34
•In 2018 2.9 MTpa ethanol was blended at a rate
of 2.1 %77
•~ 15 MTpa required
•Lack of production capacity
•Trade war uncertainty78
•Possibility of significant imports and/or scaling
back of program
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Ethanol Needed 2018 Capacity Planned Capacity Gap
2020 E10 China Ethanol Supply and Demand MTpa
(Kejun76, USDA77)

35. E10 (China): Potential Impacts of E10
April 2019 35
• 200-300 kbd of MTBE eventually displaced
•Reduced environmental impact from MTBE
•U.S ethanol to make up for shortfalls => higher U.S
pump prices/RINs/ethanol and poorer distribution
economics harming demand growth
•Reduced demand from MTBE =>bearish MTBE
precursors and LPG/naphtha
Ethanol MTBE
Density (SG) 0.791 0.746
Sulphur (ppm) 0 1
Aromatics (vol %) 0 0.01
Olefins (vol %) 0.0% 1.0%
IBP (deg C ) 80 55
RON 113 117
RVP (kpa) 180 60

36. 5. Assessing product flows
April 2019 36
• Substantial additional production capacity
in Asia
• Improved blending economics for gasoline
exports to Latin America out of China with
E10
•Tier 3 issues shifts USGC production
•Move to IMO 2020, rising bunker costs

37. Conclusion: Key Points
•Crude slate lighter; a trend towards more naphtha supply
•Naphtha demand outlook challenged- feedstock competition, plastics demand destruction, China petchem
integration
•Lack of reforming capacity and spare utilization to convert naphtha to reformate
•Regulatory changes creating challenges in octane supply
•Ethanol blends at higher than 10 % present some attractive possibilities for meeting octane demands
•Ultimately E15 is logistically, structurally challenged; likely to require time and support to uptake significantly
under current conditions
•Short term feasibility of full E10 implementation in China questionable given domestic production gap
•Shift to E10 in China likely to lead to higher exports to Latam, impacting USGC competitiveness, pull on
ethanol
April 2019 37

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April 2019 38

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April 2019 39

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April 2019 40

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April 2019 41

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