Pedro.ribeiro

Predictable Project Surprises
Bridging Risk Perception Gaps
Presented by

Pedro C. Ribeiro, MBA, PMP
President, Stratech/TheProjectOffice

STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
turning vision into reality through projects®
www.theprojectoffice.net
© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007

Pedro C Ribeiro, MBA, PMP

Pedro C Ribeiro is President of Stratech/TheProjectOffice which
specializes in project management and risk management consulting
and training. A former Director of Ernst & Young Consulting, Unisys
and EDS he has over 25 years of executive and consulting
experience with global organizations. He holds an M.B.A. from The
Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, having participated in
the Project Management Program of the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology (M.I.T.) and in the Managing Business Transformation
Program of the Harvard Business School. He is a certified Project
Management Professional PMP, a Director for Central & South
America PMI Risk Management SIG, a member of ISO 31000
International Risk Management Working Group, and a Board
Director of PMI Educational Foundation. He has conducted
presentations, executive workshops and seminars in Latin America,
United States and Europe and has contributed to publications
including PMI Today, Chief Project Officer and PM World Today.
Pedro Ribeiro lives in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
He can be reached at pedrocribeiro@yahoo.com


Presentation Summary
• In many projects that fail there are early
warning signs that the project will run into
trouble.
• However,many times, these signs are ignored
and organizations end up not recognizing the
early signs of failure until it is too late.
• This presentation will explore the challenges
of Predictable Project Surprises, Risk
Perception Gaps, research, tools and ideas
on how to identify early warning signs of
project trouble.

Agenda
• Project Failure: The Good and the Bad News
• Predictable Project Surprises, Project
Catastrophes and Risk Perception Gaps
• A real case: The Unfold of a Project Catastrophe
• Applying Project Catastrophe Mapping (PCM)
• Results of PCM Workshops
• Conclusions


Projects Fail For Many Reasons...
– Expectations were not realistic, not
managed, or poorly communicated.
– Requirements were unclear,
contradictory, ambiguous, or there
was a lack of agreement and priority
– Lack of resources, resource conflicts,
or poor resource planning.
– Risks were poorly identified or not
managed. Source:
Center for Business Practices

– ..... Troubled Projects Research:
Project Failure or Project Recovery
2006


...however,independently
of why a project failed...
A Key Question:
Was it a
complete
surprise for all
project team
members ?...


Good News!...


...rarely a surprise.
• Some people in the
organization knew it.
• The grapevine knew it...may
be well in advance.
• Some project team members
knew it and tried to warn the
organization.
The Dead Fish of Failure…
It sits on the table of far too many projects… Source:
The Wisdom of Grapevines
Everybody smells it right away. by Pedro C Ribeiro, MBA, PMP
- Tim Lister


The Silence Fails Study
• 90% of employees know far
in advance when projects
are doomed.
• 82% of employees say that
there are significant
organization-wide initiatives
underway in their workplace
that will likely to fail.
Source:
• 78% of employees say that The Silence Fails Study
Vital Smarts and The Concours Group - 2006
they are personnaly
working on a “doomed”
project right now.

The bad news is that some of these
potential early warnings go
sometimes unnoticed...
• “71 % of surveyed employees say
that they try to speak up about their
concerns to key decision makers but
do not feel they are heard
• 19% don’t event attempted to speak”
• 85% of all project failures can be
attributed to “organizational silence”.
Source:
The Silence Fails Study
Vital Smarts and The Concours Group - 2006


....at all levels...
“There is a large disconnect
between senior management
and project sponsors on one
hand ,and project managers
and their teammates on the
other.They are not
communicating”.
Source:
PCI Global Survey 2004
Does your organization support, ignore or
obstruct project management?


...leading to
Predictable Surprises
“Predictable surprises are
events that catch leaders
off guard even though they
had all the information
necessary to anticipate
them”.
“Predictable surprises occur
regularly in organizations Source:
public and private” M.Bazerman and M.Watkins
Predictable Surprises
HBS Press 2004


Predictable Project Surprise – PPS

A sudden project status
change, or "discontinuity”
in project expected or
actual results, that take an
organization by surprise,
when project team
members, already
expected it, and tried to
warn the organization.
Source:
Project Catastrophes and Risk Percetion Gaps
How to avoid Predictable Project Surprises
by Pedro C Ribeiro , MBA, PMP


Predictable Project Surprises
behave similarly to Catastrophes
• Catastrophe Theory - Branch of topology
developed by René Thom to qualitatively
describe events characterized by major
abrupt changes. Catastrophes are
discontinuous transitions that occurs when a
system suddenly jumps, or is perceived to
jump, from one state to another, such as the
collapse of a bridge, a stock market crash or
change in perceptions.

• Project Catastrophe: A discontinuous
transition that occurs when a project status
suddenly jumps, or is perceived to jump,
from one status to another. The project
suddenly collapses leaving us wondering Source:
what went wrong. How to avoid Predictable Project Surprises


Project Catastrophes may unfold due to
unadressed differences in Risk Perceptions
• Perceived Project Risk Level
– An individual’s subjective assessment of a
project’s risk level (likelihood and
consequence), before risk responses.
• Perceived Risk Response Capability
– An individual’s subjective assessment of
an organization’s competence
( technology, processes and people) to
effectively formulate, plan and execute risk
responses to perceived project risks.
• Expected Project Results
– An individual’s expectations with regard to
the feasibility of achieving project
objectives as a result of Perceived Risk
Levels and Risk Response Capability.
Source:

Risk Perceptions
depend on many factors
Perceived Risk Response Capability

LOW HIGH

Mission
HIGH

Impossible...
Perceived Risk Level

..OR

..A Walk in
LOW

the Park

Risk Perception Map (RPM) Source:

How Project Catastrophes unfold
The International Telecom Project…
A Pattern of Project Catastrophe

• A global services corporation
entering a major global bid in
South America.
• The company did not match all bid
requirements, but..
• The international bid team did an
excellent job in preparing a
proposal, and winning the bid … ITP

…the project that would save
the Quarter and the Fiscal Year…

Management Expectations


Client Expectations


Project Team Expectations


Project Results

- I knew it from day one - How could this happen?
- Remember, I warned you... - You did not say that...
- Nobody listened... - If I knew that I would...


Project Catastrophe Mapping (PCM)
A visual brainstorming tool Risk Perception Map (RPM)

designed to help identifying LOW HIGH

and discussing project Risk
Perception Gaps and

HIGH
Catastrophes.
Project Catastrophe Map (PCM)

LOW
Source:


Mapping Risk Perceptions
ITP Early Warnings during Concept/Planning


LOW HIGH

Mission
HIGH

Impossible

T

Piece M
LOW

of
Cake C Difference in Perceived Residual Risks

Residual Risk: A risk that remains after risk
Risk Perception Map (RPM) responses have been implemented PMBOK 3rd Edition


A Risk Management Divide
Official Processes and Tools PERCEIVED RISK LEVEL

Official Unnoficial
Risk Identification Risk Identification

Official Unnoficial
Risk Analysis Risk Analysis

Official Unnofficial
Planned Assessment of
Risk Responses Cababilities

PERCEIVED RISK RESPONSE CAPABILITIES
Source:
The Wisdom of Grapevines
turning vision into reality through projects® by Pedro C Ribeiro, MBA, PMP

Barriers to detecting
Risk Perception Gaps
• Risk is a Four Letter Word
• Organization Culture.
• Pressure for Results HELP!
• Attitutes towards Risk
• Methodology=Filling forms
• Technical Jargon
• Best Software, Hardware
...and little Peopleware
• Unclear Risk Decision Rights Source:


ITP Early Warnings during Execution


LOW HIGH

T
Mission Big
HIGH

Impossible Challenge

M

Piece
LOW

of
Cake C

Risk Perception Map (RPM)


ITP End game


LOW HIGH

T
Mission Big
HIGH

Impossible Challenge

C M

Piece
LOW

of
Cake



Mapping Project Catastrophes
Understanding Scenarios and Consequences
Per
cei
ved
l

R is
ve

kR
Le

esp
ons
sk

e Ca
Ri

pab
ilit y
d
iv e

A
rce
Pe

B

Expected
Project
Results

C
Source:


Agenda
• Project Failure: The Good and the Bad News
• Predictable Project Surprises, Projec
Catastrophes and Risk Perception Gaps
• A real case: The Unfold of a Project Catastrophe
• Applying Project Catastrophe Mapping (PCM)
• Results of PCM Workshops
• Conclusions


Workshop Results
ORG1 NPB: HEM

LOW HIGH

HIGH

45 % 60 %

10 %
LOW



Workshop Results
ORG2 PB: ECF

LOW HIGH

HIGH

68% 16 %

70 %
LOW



Risk Management and Communications

Opportunity

PMNetwork July 2007


Summary
Learn to Recognize Risk Perception Gaps
– Early warnings always precede project surprises and project
surprises are often the result of ignoring available signs of risk.
Listen to your Project Team
– Project Catastrophes starts forming when the real project risk
identification and analysis start happening only in the cafeteria,
after hours or during informal conversations and not during your
official risk reviews.
Prepare your organization to detect looming Project Catastrophes
– Unaddressed Risk Perception Gaps breed Project Catastrophes
and are detrimental to project teamwork and commitment.
PCM can complement Risk Identification and Lessons Learned
- Recognizing early formation Project Catastrophes is an opportunity
for project management continuous improvement....


Thank You
Contact Information

Pedro C. Ribeiro, MBA, PMP
Stratech/TheProjectOffice
www.TheProjectOffice.net
e-mail: pedrocribeiro@yahoo.com


Pedro.ribeiro

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