The two most common ways a schedule is analyzed outside of a weekly scheduling status review In Earned Value Management the Schedule Variance is the difference between the amount of work performed versus work scheduled and is usually outlined in the monthly Contract Performance Report. Monte Carlo Simulation is the most common form of Schedule Risk Assessment. It gives confidence in a schedule’s executability and insight into tasks just off the critical path that are most likely to become critical
JCL Analysis --- Dice is a comprehensive model created by Booz Allen Hamilton as an initial response to NASA’s emerging area of Joint Confidence Level analysis. <ul><li>This lack of integration has tangible consequences </li></ul><ul><ul><li>When cost growth is identified, it almost always implies schedule growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>When the schedule growth is identified, it almost always implies cost growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>When risks are identified, they almost always imply both cost and schedule growth </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Program managers lose their opportunity to mitigate cost and schedule growth when these functions aren’t integrated </li></ul>Dice is a targeted development effort to construct a JCL engine for the purpose of meeting NASA’s core JCL objectives. Dice - provides a framework for integrating cost, schedule and risk using existing artifacts to produce a cohesive analysis
Dice Provides Unparalleled Insight Into the Relationships Between Cost, Schedule and Risk <ul><li>Dice provides a range of potential cost and schedule outcomes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Includes range of costs by year </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Allows PMs to set reserves based on confidence levels – required by DoD/IC/NASA </li></ul><ul><li>Shows relationship between cost and schedule </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Reveals the range of potential costs for any schedule outcome and vice versa </li></ul></ul><ul><li>All analysis is provided at every level of cost and schedule </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Enables risk-based management of subcontracts; mitigates cost growth from change orders </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Dice also shows a probabilistic critical path </li></ul><ul><li>Demonstrates the secondary and tertiary effects of risks by integrating them into the schedule and cost estimate </li></ul>
Today we will introduce to you an innovative scheduling analysis utilizing basic scheduling concepts recommended for all projects The Status Impact Analysis automates a scheduling principle and only requires you to collect status as you normally would Earned Value Schedule Risk Assessment Status Impact Analysis Resource Loaded or Assigned Fixed Cost Schedule Set Event Triggers Transfer Previous Status WBS Structure set at the Control Account Level Set Pessimistic, Optimistic, & Most Likely Durations for Each Activity Process Current Status Process for Collecting Actuals on a Monthly Basis Identify Risk Assignments Highlight Impacts Implement a Monthly Change Control Process Assign Probability Distribution Curves Print Status Impact Report Collect Status Assign Values as required for special conditions Perform Risk Analysis Calculations
The Status Impact Analysis informs the project team of what activity is taking longer, who is adding more predecessors, and which milestone dates are being altered The Status Impact Analysis focuses the project manager on the areas impacting the project and ultimately the project finish date Status Impact Analysis doesn’t supplant other schedule analysis techniques but rather enhances and/or confirms their analyses
Unlike a what-if analysis or an analysis of planned vs. actual, Status Impact analysis identifies the direct cause of the impacts to the schedule Has the duration increased? Was there a change in the predecessors? Are milestone dates being altered?
Status Impact analyzes and compares changes from the previous status cycle in relation to the current status cycle Schedule from Previous Status Cycle Schedule from Current Status Cycle
Identifying which adjustments are impacting the schedule rather than the activities being impacted by the status allows greater insight to the direct cause of the impact “ Critical paths have either a zero or negative total float, and schedule activities on a critical path are called ‘critical activities.’ Adjustments to activity durations, logical relationships, leads and lags, or other schedule constraints may be necessary to produce network paths with a zero or positive total float” (PMBOK)
Ideally, adjustments that occur on the Critical Path should receive immediate attention since this could affect the overall completion date of the project Critical Path Analysis is used to predict total project duration by assessing which sequence of activities (path) has the least amount of scheduling flexibility (float).
Tracking adjustments to activities’ increased durations, added predecessors, and delayed milestones finish dates alert the project team to what is impacting the schedule Analysis of the full schedule will assist you as the critical path potentially changes and the near critical path may become the critical path.
Status Impact Analysis identifies what activity is causing the delay, the reason why, and the degree of impact to the project finish date the What the How the Degree
By accenting the critical activities, a more focused analysis of the Status Impact Report can occur as you assess the impacts to the schedule Critical activities compose the critical path, which needs the proper network logic built into the schedule
Without a properly defined network logic, the critical path becomes the activity with the longest duration and emphasizes the need to track non-critical activities The example illustrates two scenarios which would create a schedule with broken logic: - One task spanning the duration of the project causing it to be the critical path - The Lead has created an open-ending schedule areas resulting in a “to do” list and the absence of any network logic
Status Impact Analysis can be run on schedules based on deterministic durations or a schedule which has implemented risk based PERT analysis <ul><li>Use a three-point estimate to represent the uncertainty in durations (optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Beta (Pessimistic+ 4 * most likely + Optimistic) / 6 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Triangular (Pessimistic+ most likely + Optimistic) / 3 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>PERT calculates the average duration and its standard deviation for each activity </li></ul><ul><li>Computes the completion date for the total project by adding the average duration of the activities along the PERT critical path, which is the longest path through the network using those averages. PERT critical path may be different from tradition critical path. </li></ul><ul><li>Real schedules have many parallel paths and convergence points, so PERT is not an appropriate method for examining risk in real schedules. </li></ul>
The Status Impact Report provides schedule analysis at a fraction of the time it would take manually to produce the reports Statusing of 50 Activities and Milestones Statusing of 150 Activities and Milestones Statusing of 500 Activities and Milestones Amount of time per week Number of hours per Year Cost per year (based on $100 bill rate) 21. 5 hours 65 hours . 25 minutes 1 hour & 15 minutes 4 hours $2,150 $6,500 . $21,700 217 hours
Status Impact Tool is the solution Booz Allen Hamilton developed to enable Status Impact Analysis
The toolbar enables the user to navigate through each of the functions required to produce the Status Impact Report Show Status Impact View Transfer Current Status to Previous Status Highlight impacts to the schedule Remove highlighting from the schedule Generate Reports Modify Status Impact Settings Print Preview of Status Impact Report
An indicator will appear in the Status Impact column if one of the following criteria is met after processing the schedule status Activity Duration Increased Predecessor added to an Activity or Milestone causing the Finish Date to occur later than planned Predecessor added to an Activity causing the Finish Date to occur later than planned AND Activity Duration Increased Milestone to occur later than planned Milestone to occur earlier than planned Newly added Activities and Milestones