IMPACT OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES ON THE PADDY PRODUCTION FROM 2007 TO 2014 – A CASE STUDY OF DISTRICT KULGAM, JAMMU AND KASHMIR

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SJIF Impact Factor: 4.924 Volume: 3 | Issue: 11 |November 2017
IMPACT OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES ON
THE PADDY PRODUCTION FROM 2007 TO 2014 – A CASE
STUDY OF DISTRICT KULGAM, JAMMU AND
KASHMIR
Mohd Asif Shah1
1Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) in
Economics,
Annamalai University,
Tamil Nadu, India.
ABSTRACT
In the present study, the researcher estimates the
association between the different socioeconomic variables
and the paddy production from 2007 to 2014 at the
household level in Kulgam, one of the districts of Jammu and
Kashmir. In the past few decades, agricultural sector in the
whole state and particularly in the district of Kulgam has
witnessed a heavy shift in the cropping pattern from food
crops to non-food crops (cash-crops). The horticultural sector
has been playing an important role in the State, largely by
contributing to the State Economy and turns to be the source
of livelihood for nearly thirty-three lakh people, but the
paddy production on the other hand has shown an opposite
trend. Paddy land is getting changed into the horticultural
land, as the farmers find it to be more remunerative. Kulgam,
which was once the major producer of rice in the State, and
was known to be the “Rice Bowl of Kashmir”, is now among
the least producers of rice. Farmers witnessed that sticking
only to the water-intensive crops proved to be non-beneficial
and they willingly shifted to the cash crops, like: apple,
almond, and walnut. Chi Square test has been used to find
out the association between the different socioeconomic
variables and the paddy production from 2007 to 2014.
KEYWORDS: Kashmir; Crop Diversification; Paddy;
Apple; Crop
INTRODUCTION
Crop diversification is a best strategy to
achieve the goals of development. It took the attention
of policy makers in the country during the recent years.
The approach envisages changes in production
activities of farm sector, to adjust to changes in
economic environment and to face the problems like
unemployment and depletion of natural resources
(Ramesh Chand, 1999). The main objective of this
approach is to raise per capita income by means of
opening of avenues for prolific employment
opportunities in farm and non-farm sectors and to
make the economic growth broad and stable in the
long-run (Amitabh Kundu, 2012). The success of the
policy lies in the identification of the particular crop
for the appropriate region-specific, diversification
choices, establishment of physical and institutional
infrastructure services and execution of suitable
strategies.
Another feature of this approach is to prepare
the farmers to grow excellent and profitable produce
based on both demand and supply in the long run
(Anjani Kumar et al., 2012). Diversification in
cropping pattern is likely to save the disintegration of
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EPRA International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research (IJMR) | ISSN (Online): 2455 -3662 | SJIF Impact Factor : 4.924
79
agriculture economy and environment of the study
area. Crop diversification acquires extraordinary
implication in this region because of the ecological and
environmental problems and depletion of the natural
resources. Crop diversification refers to the
competition between the crops growing in a region. If
there is eagerness in the competition, the higher will be
the extent of crop diversification; and less important
the competition, the better will be the trend in the
direction of crop specialization (where emphasis is on
one or two crops). Therefore crop diversification is an
idea which is contradictory to crop specialization. The
extent of crop diversification mainly depends on the
geo climatic/socio-economic conditions and
technological development in the area (Husain, 2000).
India is blessed with a varied set of regional,
agronomic, ecological, climatic, social and economic
attributes. As far the state of Jammu and Kashmir is
concerned, it is totally different regarding all these
features with the rest of the country. The economy of
Jammu & Kashmir principally depends on agriculture,
having about one-third of its population engaged with
this agriculture and allied sectors. The geography setup
of the area is restricting the growth of paddy
cultivation. The production of paddy is not increasing
in proportion to the cost involved in the farming, so in
this background of stagnation in paddy production,
which is not able to raise the level of employment in
the region, horticulture is a possible option for
exploration. The area is blessed with the appropriate
climatic zones for rising temperate, sub-tropical and
tropical fruits throughout the whole year. These fruits
are not only the supplement diet of the local people,
but also appear to be the main item of export to other
parts of India and rest of world (SP Sharma et al.,
2011). Kulgam which famous for the rice productivity
once used to be called as rice bowl of the Kashmir is
now amongst the least producers of rice (A. N. Raina,
2012). Paddy land is getting converted into
horticultural land as farmers seek to earn more revenue
against horticultural products (Mohmad Iqbal Reshi et
al., 2010). Farmers feel that sticking only to the water-
intensive crops like paddy in times of water-scarcity
might prove non-beneficial and they readily switch
over to cash crops like apple, almond and walnuts
(J&K Govt. Report, 2012).
THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVE
There are two ways by which the farmers go
for crop diversification; one is to go for substitution
and second way is to go for expansion. In the former
one the farmers go directly for substituting the crop by
new one, and in latter the farmers can go by increasing
the land area by bringing unwanted lands or by
clearing the forests under cultivation. But mostly the
farmers have adopted substitution method rather than
the expansion method in the study area. There are lots
of theories (Theory of Production and Costs, Prof.
Schultz Theory of Transforming Traditional
Agriculture) which discuss about the crop
diversification in detail, but the present study has used
the Theory of Profit Maximisation to understand the
issue very well.
METHODOLOGY
The researcher has made an attempt to
examine the ground realities in the study area to devise
a methodology and research design of the present study
by going through the existing literature meticulously in
the area of research. The present study is exploratory in
nature, mainly based on the primary data collected
from thorough field survey with structured interview
schedule and the units of analyses being the household
heads.
SAMPLING DESIGN
Among the three divisions (Jammu, Kashmir,
and Ladakh) of Jammu and Kashmir State, Kashmir
division chosen for the present study which is
dominated by the cultivation of apple. Kashmir
division if further divided into South, North and
Central parts, comprises of ten districts. Anantnag,
Kulgam, Shopian, and Pulwama form the Southern
part; while as Bandipora, Baramulla, and Kupwara
forms the Northern part and Budgam, Ganderbal and
Srinagar as the Central part of the region.
In all the ten districts of Kashmir region, both
apple and rice are extensively cultivated. Out of which,
the five districts which come under high productivity
group in case of both apple and rice production are:
Kulgam, Budgam, Anantnag, Pulwama, and
Baramulla. Kulgam district, which was once known as
the “Rice Bowl of Kashmir” has been chosen for
observing the rapid trend in the shifting of paddy
cultivation towards the apple cultivation over the last
few decades.
Primary data were obtained from the survey
samples by adopting stratified random sampling
method to choose the respondents from the selected
villages, with the help of an interview schedule by
implementing three-stage sampling procedure as
follows:
Stage I: Selection of all ten horticultural blocks of
district Kulgam. (Manzgam, Waripora, D.K. Marg,
Kulgam, Arreh, Kadder, Qazigund, Devsar, Qaimoh,
and Yaripora)
Stage II: Selection of thirty-four highly apple
populated orchardist villages from all ten blocks by the
number of villages in the respective blocks.
Stage III: Selection of total of 272 sample respondents
of the total thirty-four villages, eight sample
respondents from each village.

80
OBJECTIVES
The following objectives were set for the present
research:
1. To find out the association between the
different socioeconomic variables and the
paddy production from 2007 to 2014.
HYPOTHESES
1. There is an association between the attribute
(age) and the paddy production from 2007 to
2014.
2. There is no association between the attribute
(gender) and the paddy production from 2007
to 2014.
(educational qualification) and the paddy
production from 2007 to 2014.
(occupation) and the paddy production from
2007 to 2014.
(family type) and the paddy production from
2007 to 2014.
(family size) and the paddy production from
2007 to 2014.
(land owned) and the paddy production from
2007 to 2014.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The table 1 examines the association between
the dependent variable i.e. the production pattern in
case of paddy cultivation from 2007 to 2014, (whether
increased, or decreased, or did not change) and the
various independent variables (characteristics of the
household head) such as age, gender, educational
qualification, occupation, family type, family size and
land owned. Out of the total sample size, N=272
respondents, 118 respondents (43.4 per cent) depicted
an increase, 102 respondents (37.5 per cent) depicted
no change and the rest of 52 respondents (19.1 per
cent) depicted decrease in the paddy production over
the period.
In the age group of 21 to 40, the highest share
of 20 sample respondents (41.7 per cent of the row
total) show an increase in the paddy production over
the last seven years and the least share of 12 sample
respondents (25.0 per cent of the row total) show a
decrease in the paddy production over the last seven
years. Similarly, in the age group of 41 to 60, the
highest share of 78 sample respondents (45.3 per cent
of the row total) show an increase in the paddy
production over the last seven years and the least share
total) show a decrease in the paddy production over the
last seven years. But, in the age group with respondents
having age above 60 years, the highest share of 24
sample respondents (46.2 per cent of the row total)
depicted no change in the paddy production over the
last seven years and the least share of 8 sample
years.
The Chi Square test is used for finding out the
association between the attribute (age) and the
production pattern in case of paddy cultivation over the
last seven years. The result reveals that the calculated
chi-square value (3.10) at 4 degrees of freedom is >
0.05. Hence the null hypothesis is accepted. Therefore,
it can be concluded that there is no association between
the attribute (age) and the production pattern in case of
paddy cultivation over the last seven years.
In the case of gender, among the males, the
last seven years. And among the females the highest
share of 18 sample respondents (64.3 per cent of the
row total) depicted no change in the paddy production
over the last seven years and the least share of 2
sample respondents (7.1 per cent of the row total) show
a decrease in the paddy production over the last seven
years.
association between the attribute (gender) and the
chi-square value (9.89) at 4 degrees of freedom is
significant at 0.01 levels. Hence the null hypothesis is
rejected, and the alternative hypothesis is accepted.
Therefore, it can be concluded that there is an
association between the attribute (gender) and the
last seven years.
In the case of educational qualification,
considering illiterates, the highest share of 40 sample
respondents (50.0 per cent of the row total) show an
increase in the paddy production over the last seven
years and the least share of 14 sample respondents
(17.5 per cent of the row total) show a decrease in the
paddy production over the last seven years. Among the
respondents who have studied up to middle, the highest
show a decrease in the paddy production over the last
seven years. Among the respondents, who have studied

81
HSC, the highest share of 22 sample respondents (61.1
per cent of the row total) show an increase in the paddy
of 4 sample respondents (11.1 per cent of the row total)
seven years. But, the respondents who have studied up
to graduation, the highest share of 10 sample
years, a share of 6 sample respondents (27.3 per cent of
the row total) show a decrease in the paddy production
over the last seven years and a share of 6 sample
respondents (27.3 per cent of the row total) show no
change in the paddy production over the last seven
years. And finally among the sample respondents who
have studied PG or above, the highest share of 12
show an increase in the paddy production over the last
seven years, a share of 10 sample respondents (31.3 per
cent of the row total) show a decrease in the paddy
production over the last seven years and a share of 10
show no change in the paddy production over the last
seven years.
association between the attribute (educational
qualification) and the production pattern in case of
paddy cultivation over the last seven years. The result
reveals that the calculated chi-square value (16.72) at 8
degrees of freedom is significant at 0.01 levels. Hence
the null hypothesis is rejected, and the alternative
hypothesis is accepted. Therefore, it can be concluded
that there is an association between the attribute
(educational qualification) and the production pattern
in case of paddy cultivation over the last seven years.
In the case of occupational structure, among
the respondents practicing agriculture, the highest
seven years. But, among the respondents having
business as their main income generating source, the
last seven years. Similarly, among the respondents who
are in government service, the highest share of 32
cent of the row total) show a decrease in the paddy
production over the last seven years and a share of 20
seven years.
association between the attribute (occupation) and the
association between the attribute (occupation) and the
last seven years.
In the case of family type, among the nuclear
type household families, the highest share of 86 sample
paddy production over the last seven years. And among
the joint family type households, the highest share of
36 sample respondents (46.2 per cent of the row total)
seven years and the least share of 10 sample
years.
association between the attribute (family type) and the
association between the attribute (family type) and the
last seven years.
In the case of family size, in the group of
households having family size below 5, the highest
row total) show an increase in the paddy production
seven years. Similarly, among the households in the
group of 6-10 the highest share of 38 sample
paddy production over the last seven years. And,
among the households having the family size of above

82
10, 18 sample respondents (45.0 per cent of the row
total) show an increase in the paddy production over
the last seven years, 18 sample respondents (45.0 per
cent of the row total) depicted no change in the paddy
seven years.
association between the attribute (family size) and the
chi-square value (7.376) at 4 degrees of freedom is >
0.05. Hence the null hypothesis is accepted. Therefore,
it can be concluded that there is no association between
the attribute (family size) and the production pattern in
case of paddy cultivation over the last seven years.
In case of land owned, considering the group
of households having land size below 2 Kanals, 4
cent of the row total) depicted no change in the paddy
depicted a decrease in the paddy production over the
last seven years. Among the respondents who have
been having the land size of 3 to 4 Kanals, the highest
sample respondents (8.0 per cent of the row total) show
a decrease in the paddy production over the last seven
years. Among the respondents, who have land size of 5
to 8 Kanals, the highest share of 44 sample respondents
(40.7 per cent of the row total) show an increase in the
paddy production over the last seven years, a share of
32 sample respondents (29.6 per cent of the row total)
seven years and the least share of 32 sample
respondents (29.6 per cent of the row total) show no
change in the paddy production over the last seven
years. Among the respondents who have land size of 9
to 16 Kanals, the highest share of 44 sample
paddy production over the last seven years. And among
the sample respondents who have land size of above 16
Kanals, the highest share of 8 sample respondents
paddy production over the last seven years, and the rest
of the 4 sample respondents (33.3 per cent of the row
last seven years.
association between the attribute (land owned) and the
association between the attribute (land owned) and the
last seven years.
REFERENCES
1. Hussain M. 2000. Systematic Geography of J&K. New
Delhi: Rawat Publication. 113-125.
2. Joshi, P.K., Ahok Gulati, P.S. Birthal and
Laxmi Tewari. 2003. “Agricultural
Diversification in South Asia: Patterns,
Determinants and Policy Implication.”
International Food Policy Research Institute,
Washington, D.C., U.S.A. MSSD Discussion
paper No. 57.
3. Kumar, Anjani, Pramod Kumar and Alakh
N.Sharma. 2012. “Crop Diversification in
Eastern India: Status and Determinants”. Indian
Journal of Agricultural Economics. Vol. 67,
No.4, Oct-Dec, pp. 600-616.
4. Kumar, Anjani, Pramod Kumar and Alakh
N.Sharma. 2012. “Crop Diversification in
Eastern India: Status and Determinants”. Indian
Journal of Agricultural Economics. 67(4): 600-
616.
5. Kundu, Amitabh. 2006. “Changing Agrarian System
and Rural Urban Linkages” In Handbbok of
Agriculture in India, ed. Shovan Roy. 183-202.
New Delhi: Oxford University Press.
6. Raina, A. N. 2012. Geography of Jammu & Kashmir
State. Pacca Danga, Jammu: Radha Krishan
Anand & Co.
7. Ramesh Chand. 1999. “Emerging Crisis in Punjab
Agriculture: Severity and Options for Future”,
Economic and Political Weekly. 34(13): A2-
A10.
8. Reshi, Mohmad Iqbal, Muzaffer Ahmad Malik
and Vijay Kumar. 2010. “Assessment of
Problems and Prospects of Apple Production and
Marketing in Kashmir Valley, India.” Journal of
Environmental Research and Development. Vol.
4, April-June.
9. Shah, Mohd Shah., and A. Anbuvel. (2016)
“Cropping Pattern Change in Jammu &
Kashmir-A Case Study of District Kulgam.”

83
Golden Research Thoughts (GRT-IMRJ), 6(6):
1-8.
10. Shah, Mohd Shah., and A. Anbuvel. (2016)
“Determinants Crop Diversification in Jammu &
Kashmir-A Case Study of District Kulgam.”
Indian Streams Research Journal (ISJR-IMRJ),
6(10): 70-77.
11. Singh, R. S. (2005). “Marketing of citrus fruits in
Mid Hills of Jammu & Kashmir.”In Prasad,
Jagdish, ed. Encyclopedia of Agricultural
Marketing. New Delhi: Mittal Publications.
12. Swaminathan, M. S. Abdul Aziz Zargar, Anwar
Alam and Nagendra Sharma. 2008.
“Towards food secure Jammu, Kashmir and
Ladakh”. Epiolgue, (13): 10-13.
Reports
1. Agricultural Production Department. (2012-13),
Government of Jammu and Kashmir.
2. Government of Jammu and Kashmir. (2012-13), Digest
of Statistics, Directorate of Economics and Statistics.
3. Ph.D. Research Bureau Compiled from National
Horticulture Board. (2010-11), Government of India.
Table 1
Impact of the Socio-Economic Variables on the Paddy Production from 2007 to 2014.
Variables
Paddy Production from 2007 to 2014
Total
Increased Decreased Did not Change
Age
21 to 40 20
(41.7)
12
(25.0)
16
(33.3)
48
(100.0)
41 to 60 78
(45.3)
32
(18.6)
62
(36.0)
172
(100.0)
Above 60 20
(38.5)
8
(15.4)
24
(46.2)
52
(100.0)
Total 118
(43.4)
52
(19.1)
102
(37.5)
272
(100.0)
Chi-Square df P-Value
3.10 4 0.54 NS
Gender
Male 110
(45.1)
50
(20.5)
84
(34.4)
244
(100.0)
Female 8
(28.6)
2
(7.1)
18
(64.3)
28
(100.0)
Total 118
(43.4)
52
(19.1)
102
(37.5)
272
(100.0)
9.89 2 0.001 S
EducationalQualification
Illiterate 40
(50.0)
14
(17.5)
26
(32.5)
80
(100.0)
Middle 34
(33.3)
18
(17.6)
50
(49.0)
102
(100.0)
HSC 22
(61.1)
4
(11.1)
10
(27.8)
36
(100.0)
Graduation 10
(45.5)
6
(27.3)
6
(27.3)
22
(100.0)
PG/Other 12
(37.5)
10
(31.3)
10
(31.3)
32
(100.0)
Total 118
(43.4)
52
(19.1)
102
(37.5)
272
(100.0)
16.72 8 0.001 S
Occupational
Structure
Agriculture 42
(35.6)
22
(18.6)
54
(45.8)
118
(100.0)
Business 44
(53.7)
10
(12.2)
28
(34.1)
82
(100.0)
Government Service 32
(44.4)
20
(27.8)
20
(27.8)
72
(100.0)
Total 118
(43.4)
52
(19.1)
102
(37.5)
272
(100.0)
12.76 4 0.01 S

84
Table 1 Contd...
Variables
Paddy Production from 2007 to 2014
Total
Increased Decreased Did not Change
Typeof
Family
Nuclear 86
(44.3)
42
(21.6)
66
(34.0)
194
(100.0)
Joint 32
(41.0)
10
(12.8)
36
(46.2)
78
(100.0)
Total 118
(43.4)
52
(19.1)
102
(37.5)
272
(100.0)
4.59 2 0.10 NS
SizeoftheFamily
Below 5 62
(39.7)
38
(24.4)
56
(35.9)
156
(100.0)
6-10 38
(50.0)
10
(13.2)
28
(36.8)
76
(100.0)
Above 10 18
(45.0)
4
(10.0)
18
(45.0)
40
(100.0)
Total 118
(43.4)
52
(19.1)
102
(37.5)
272
(100.0)
4.59 2 0.10 NS
SizeofLandOwned
Below 2 4
(40.0)
2
(20.0)
4
(40.0)
10
(100.0)
3-4 22
(44.0)
4
(8.0)
24
(48.0)
50
(100.0)
5-8 44
(40.7)
32
(29.6)
32
(29.6)
108
(100.0)
9-16 44
(47.8)
14
(15.2)
34
(37.0)
92
(100.0)
Above 16 4
(33.3)
0 8
(66.7)
12
(100.0)
Total 118
(43.4)
52
(19.1)
102
(37.5)
272
(100.0)
19.40 8 0.01 S
Source:Computed
Note: Figures in parentheses indicate percentage to the row total.
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IMPACT OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES ON THE PADDY PRODUCTION FROM 2007 TO 2014 – A CASE STUDY OF DISTRICT KULGAM, JAMMU AND KASHMIR

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IMPACT OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES ON THE PADDY PRODUCTION FROM 2007 TO 2014 – A CASE STUDY OF DISTRICT KULGAM, JAMMU AND KASHMIR