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April 2014
May 2014
Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited
GLOBAL FLOWS IN A DIGITAL AGE:
HOW TRADE, FINANCE, PEOPLE, AND
DATA CONNECT THE WORLD ECONOMY
MCKINSEY GLOBAL INSTITUTE
Global flows
are growing and
knowledge-intensive
flows dominate
All flows are growing faster than GDP, with the exception of
people flows
Value and growth (%) of cross-border flow
2012 value (CAGR 2000-2012)
Goods
$17.5
trillion
Services
$4.4
trillion
Financial
$4
trillion
People
194 million
people
Data and
communication
21.2 million
megabits/sec
11% 10%
6%
2%
52%
2
Global flows of goods, services, and finance reached $25.9
trillion in 2012 – and could triple by 2025
SOURCE: Comtrade; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments; World Trade Organization; McKinsey Global
Institute analysis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1995 20121990
25.9
11.5
7.6
5.0
24.6
29.3
2005
17.0
2000
Goods, services, and financial flows;
share of GDP, 1980–2012
$ trillion, nominal; %
3
23% 25% 36% 44% 36%
Goods flows
Financial flows
Service flows
X % global GDP
Scenarios for global
flows in 2025
$ trillion, nominal
38% 44% 49%
8 13 18
10
13
16
36
44
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Slowdown
85
54
Gaining
momentum
Continuing
momentum
70
Total value of flows
Trillion USD
2.1
Foreign direct investment
R&D-intensive manufacturing
25.9
8.5
1.8
13.5All other flows
Business, financial, legal services
5.5%
10.9%
7.9%
7.0%
Growth rate
2002-12, %
SOURCE: Comtrade; World Development Indicators, World Bank; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments;
Telegography; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Knowledge-intensive flows are half of total flows,
and are growing faster than other types
4
Knowledge-
intensive
The vast majority of knowledge-intensive flows occur in
developed economies—with China as an outlier
Total knowledge-intensive inflows and outflows, 20121
Relative area corresponds to the portion of global inflows/outflows
Developed
Emerging
SOURCE: Comtrade; IMF Balance of Payments; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
1 A knowledge-intensive flow is a flow with embedded information, ideas, or expertise that is transferred when exchanged. Foreign direct investment is
classed as a knowledge-intensive flow because it often entails the transfer of embedded ideas, management expertise, and technology.
119 other
countries
United States China Germany
Netherlands Singapore Italy Canada Belgium Mexico Taiwan
SwedenMalaysiaBrazilRussiaIrelandIndiaSpainSwitzerland
South Korea
Hong Kong
(China)
FranceUnited KingdomJapan
Hungary Mauritius
Luxembourg
THA
AUS
AUT
POL
CZE
TUR
SAU
NOR
DNK
ISR
FIN
ARG
VNM
CHL
SVK
ZAF
ROM
UKR
PHL
PRT
5
Flow networks are
broadening and
deepening
Networks of global flows are expanding: Goods
SOURCE: Comtrade; World Development Indicators, World Bank; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments;
Telegography; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Regions US
United
States and
Canada
LA
Latin
America
WE
Western
Europe
EE
Eastern
Europe and
Central Asia
CH
China
region
NE
Northeast
Asia
AU
Australasia
OA
Other
Asia
ME
Middle East
and Africa
0.25–0.500.05–0.10 0.50–1.00 >1.000.10–0.250.02–0.05
% of
global GDP
Goods flows
1980
100% = $1.8 trillion
US
LA
WE
EE
CH
NE
AU
OA
ME
US
LA
WE
EE
CH
NE
AU
OA
ME
2011
100% = $17.2 trillion
7
10x
Cross-border Internet traffic flows are dispersing
rapidly
SOURCE: Comtrade; World Development Indicators, World Bank; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments;
Telegography; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
US
LA
WE
EE
CH
NE
AU
OA
ME
US
LA
WE
EE
CH
NE
AU
OA
ME
500,000–
1 million
50,000–
100,000
1 million–
5 million
>5 million100,000–
500,000
<50,000Bandwidth
Mbps
2008
100% = 29 million Mbps
2013
100% = 201 million Mbps
8
Cross-border bandwidth
Regions US
United
States and
Canada
LA
Latin
America
WE
Western
Europe
EE
Eastern
Europe and
Central Asia
CH
China
region
NE
Northeast
Asia
AU
Australasia
OA
Other
Asia
ME
Middle East
and Africa
7x
SOURCE: IHS Global Insight; Comtrade; Teleogeography; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments; World
Development Indicators; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Emerging economies’ share of total inflows and outflows
%
Emerging economies are gaining share in
global flows
9
1 Emerging economies accounted for 65.4 percent of migrants in 2000 and 64.7 percent in 2010.
2 Measured by cross-border bandwidth.
26
9
22
10
18
Financial
(2002–12)
37
Goods
(2002–12)
39
Services
(2002–12)
32
Knowledge-intensive
(2002–11)1 33
Data and comms
(2005–13)
24
Developed
economy share
%
Growth in share,
base year–final year
Base year
76
68
63
61
67
Emerging markets’ share
of global GDP, 2012
39%
Goods trade among emerging markets (“South-South”) has
quadrupled its share of goods trade since 1990
SOURCE: The Direction of Trade, IMF; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Goods trade among countries
%; $ trillion
10
34
42
60 48
6 10
24
45
31
100% =
2012
17.5
2000
6.5
1990
3.3
North-South
Between developed markets
(North-North)
Between emerging markets
(South-South)
Digitization is
transforming
all global flows
SOURCE: iResearch, Telegeography, OCED, Bureau of Economic Analysis
The digital component of global flows is growing quickly
3.0
3.0
51.0
39.0
63.0
12.1
Calls
(Skype share of international calls)
Goods
(E-commerce share of
total goods trade)
Services
(Digitally-enabled share of
total services trade)
Category
(digital component)
2005
2013Share of selected cross-border flows that are digital
%
12
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Digital goods
Online platforms
Digital wrappers
13
Digitization is transforming global flows in
three ways
Online platforms enable businesses to attain
global reach that comparable offline businesses
have not achieved
SOURCE: Enterprise Surveys, World Bank, 2012; Australia Bureau of Statistics, 2012, 2007; eBay; McKinsey Global
Institute analysis
9797
78
10010010010010098100
4
15
2
11
18
14
25
4
12
16
United
States
FranceAustraliaUkraineSouth
Africa
PeruJordanIndonesiaIndiaChile
Share of eBay commercial sellers and offline SMEs that export, 2012
%
Traditional SMEs
eBay sellers
Emerging economies Developed economies
14
Flows matter
and country
connectedness
varies
Flows contribute 15 to 25 percent of GDP growth each year …
$250 billion–
450 billionAnnual increase in world GDP
from intensity of flows—worth
15–25% of world GDP growth
16
… and countries with more connections benefit more—with both
inflows and outflows mattering for growth
+40%Difference in impact of flows on
GDP growth for countries at the
center of the network compared
with ones at the periphery
17
SOURCE: Comtrade; IHS Global Insights; UN WTO; Telegeography; World Development Indicators, World Bank; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Country connectedness index and overall flows data, 2012
Rank of participation by flow as measured by trade intensity and share of world total
18
Connectedness of countries across flows varies, with
Germany at the top of the list
Rank Country Rank
change
Goods Services Financial People Data Flows
value
Flow
intensity (%)
Change
intensity
1 Germany 1 3 5 7 5 2 3,770 110 53
2 Hong Kong 1 4 3 14 1,437 546
3 United States -1 8 9 5 1 7 5,622 35 2
4 Singapore 1 2 3 4 18 5 1,198 436 8
5 United Kingdom -1 13 6 9 7 3 1,471 60 -26
6 Netherlands 2 6 7 15 29 1 1,213 157 39
7 France -1 9 10 36 15 4 1,581 60 8
8 Canada -1 16 22 13 9 18 1,381 76 -3
9 Russia 19 30 16 2 21 1,277 63
9 Italy 2 11 20 31 16 10 1,187 59 4
16 Saudi Arabia 19 20 29 19 8 44 729 103 40
20 South Korea 4 7 14 25 58 34 1,393 123
21 Japan -1 14 24 10 82 15 2,652 44 18
25 China 5 5 21 6 93 33 5,124 62 8
30 India 16 27 13 26 47 64 1,131 61 37
43 Brazil 15 39 40 18 115 38 757 34 11
49 South Africa -3 43 50 49 56 73 242 63 12
53 Morocco 26 57 42 79 41 63 91 95 46
Development Developed
Emerging
Connectivity Index
51+
26-50
11-25
1-10 <70%
70-99%
100%+Flow intensity
There were some surprises in our country-specific findings
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis 19
The United
Kingdom is highly
connected across all
flows but lags behind
in goods flows—its
flow intensity has
dropped sharply
Germany overtook the
United States as the
most connected country,
gaining in all flows
Russia is the most connected
emerging market, at 9th overall.
It is especially high on people
flows
South Korea and Japan are export
powerhouses but overall rank only
20th and 21st, respectively, due to
low people flows
Argentina dropped 6 places
—and 24 places on financial
flows—after its 2002 financial
crisis and sovereign default
Brazil gained 15 places from 1995
to 2012 due to services and financial
flows, but ranks only 43rd overall
Mauritius and Morocco
gained 28 and 26 places
respectively, the most of
any countries
Saudi Arabia gained
19 places from 1995 to
2012, largely due to
booming financial flows
China is ranked very high on
goods and financial flows but
overall is only 25th due to
very low people flows
India gained 16 places from
1995 to 2012 as net services
imports changed to exports
Singapore’s high connectivity
(4th overall) is mainly driven
by its trade intensity, given its
role as a waypoint
The United States ranks 3rd on the
connectedness index but, among
the large economies, has one of the
lowest flow intensities (36%)
relative to the size of its economy
South Africa ranks in the middle
of the pack on the world stage
but is in the top 3 sub-Saharan
African countries for all 5 flows
SOURCE: Comtrade; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments; World Development Indicators; McKinsey Global
Institute analysis
84
52
50
39
28
25
21
21
10
4
South Asia
Eastern Europe
and Central Asia
China region
Northeast Asia
Australasia
Western Europe
United States
and Canada
Africa and
Middle East
Latin America
Southeast Asia
Developed
Emerging
Country connectedness score by region, 20121
Average rank
Change in rank,
1995-20122
-1.0
-0.8
-2.2
0.4
5.0
0.7
10.0
-2.6
5.2
-0.4
LessconnectedMoreconnected
20
Advanced economies are the most connected regions
with emerging regions far behind
Key insights onthe United States
1. TheUSishighly connected, ranked third intheworld inoverall connectedness: itisfirstin
people flows, andtopteninall other flows
2. Despite large gains inconnectedness around theworld inthelast15years, theUSisstill
atthetopoftheranking
3. TheUSisthelargest producer ofknowledge-intensive flows and iscentral totheglobal
knowledge network
4. However, USflowintensity islow, even compared toother large economies.This
suggests room forgrowth
5. USflows aredominated byNAFTA countries and afewother large advanced
economies; there isabigopportunity todiversify trade partners
6. TheUnited States’leading position inpeople flows could beslipping: ithaslost share of
foreign students ,tourists, and business travelers
Thank you
Follow us on Twitter:
www.mckinsey.com/mgi
Download our reports:
@mckinsey_mgi
22

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Global flows in a digital age

  • 1. Speaker name Speaker title April 2014 May 2014 Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited GLOBAL FLOWS IN A DIGITAL AGE: HOW TRADE, FINANCE, PEOPLE, AND DATA CONNECT THE WORLD ECONOMY MCKINSEY GLOBAL INSTITUTE
  • 2. Global flows are growing and knowledge-intensive flows dominate
  • 3. All flows are growing faster than GDP, with the exception of people flows Value and growth (%) of cross-border flow 2012 value (CAGR 2000-2012) Goods $17.5 trillion Services $4.4 trillion Financial $4 trillion People 194 million people Data and communication 21.2 million megabits/sec 11% 10% 6% 2% 52% 2
  • 4. Global flows of goods, services, and finance reached $25.9 trillion in 2012 – and could triple by 2025 SOURCE: Comtrade; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments; World Trade Organization; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1995 20121990 25.9 11.5 7.6 5.0 24.6 29.3 2005 17.0 2000 Goods, services, and financial flows; share of GDP, 1980–2012 $ trillion, nominal; % 3 23% 25% 36% 44% 36% Goods flows Financial flows Service flows X % global GDP Scenarios for global flows in 2025 $ trillion, nominal 38% 44% 49% 8 13 18 10 13 16 36 44 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Slowdown 85 54 Gaining momentum Continuing momentum 70
  • 5. Total value of flows Trillion USD 2.1 Foreign direct investment R&D-intensive manufacturing 25.9 8.5 1.8 13.5All other flows Business, financial, legal services 5.5% 10.9% 7.9% 7.0% Growth rate 2002-12, % SOURCE: Comtrade; World Development Indicators, World Bank; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments; Telegography; McKinsey Global Institute analysis Knowledge-intensive flows are half of total flows, and are growing faster than other types 4 Knowledge- intensive
  • 6. The vast majority of knowledge-intensive flows occur in developed economies—with China as an outlier Total knowledge-intensive inflows and outflows, 20121 Relative area corresponds to the portion of global inflows/outflows Developed Emerging SOURCE: Comtrade; IMF Balance of Payments; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 1 A knowledge-intensive flow is a flow with embedded information, ideas, or expertise that is transferred when exchanged. Foreign direct investment is classed as a knowledge-intensive flow because it often entails the transfer of embedded ideas, management expertise, and technology. 119 other countries United States China Germany Netherlands Singapore Italy Canada Belgium Mexico Taiwan SwedenMalaysiaBrazilRussiaIrelandIndiaSpainSwitzerland South Korea Hong Kong (China) FranceUnited KingdomJapan Hungary Mauritius Luxembourg THA AUS AUT POL CZE TUR SAU NOR DNK ISR FIN ARG VNM CHL SVK ZAF ROM UKR PHL PRT 5
  • 8. Networks of global flows are expanding: Goods SOURCE: Comtrade; World Development Indicators, World Bank; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments; Telegography; McKinsey Global Institute analysis Regions US United States and Canada LA Latin America WE Western Europe EE Eastern Europe and Central Asia CH China region NE Northeast Asia AU Australasia OA Other Asia ME Middle East and Africa 0.25–0.500.05–0.10 0.50–1.00 >1.000.10–0.250.02–0.05 % of global GDP Goods flows 1980 100% = $1.8 trillion US LA WE EE CH NE AU OA ME US LA WE EE CH NE AU OA ME 2011 100% = $17.2 trillion 7 10x
  • 9. Cross-border Internet traffic flows are dispersing rapidly SOURCE: Comtrade; World Development Indicators, World Bank; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments; Telegography; McKinsey Global Institute analysis US LA WE EE CH NE AU OA ME US LA WE EE CH NE AU OA ME 500,000– 1 million 50,000– 100,000 1 million– 5 million >5 million100,000– 500,000 <50,000Bandwidth Mbps 2008 100% = 29 million Mbps 2013 100% = 201 million Mbps 8 Cross-border bandwidth Regions US United States and Canada LA Latin America WE Western Europe EE Eastern Europe and Central Asia CH China region NE Northeast Asia AU Australasia OA Other Asia ME Middle East and Africa 7x
  • 10. SOURCE: IHS Global Insight; Comtrade; Teleogeography; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments; World Development Indicators; McKinsey Global Institute analysis Emerging economies’ share of total inflows and outflows % Emerging economies are gaining share in global flows 9 1 Emerging economies accounted for 65.4 percent of migrants in 2000 and 64.7 percent in 2010. 2 Measured by cross-border bandwidth. 26 9 22 10 18 Financial (2002–12) 37 Goods (2002–12) 39 Services (2002–12) 32 Knowledge-intensive (2002–11)1 33 Data and comms (2005–13) 24 Developed economy share % Growth in share, base year–final year Base year 76 68 63 61 67 Emerging markets’ share of global GDP, 2012 39%
  • 11. Goods trade among emerging markets (“South-South”) has quadrupled its share of goods trade since 1990 SOURCE: The Direction of Trade, IMF; McKinsey Global Institute analysis Goods trade among countries %; $ trillion 10 34 42 60 48 6 10 24 45 31 100% = 2012 17.5 2000 6.5 1990 3.3 North-South Between developed markets (North-North) Between emerging markets (South-South)
  • 13. SOURCE: iResearch, Telegeography, OCED, Bureau of Economic Analysis The digital component of global flows is growing quickly 3.0 3.0 51.0 39.0 63.0 12.1 Calls (Skype share of international calls) Goods (E-commerce share of total goods trade) Services (Digitally-enabled share of total services trade) Category (digital component) 2005 2013Share of selected cross-border flows that are digital % 12
  • 14. SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis Digital goods Online platforms Digital wrappers 13 Digitization is transforming global flows in three ways
  • 15. Online platforms enable businesses to attain global reach that comparable offline businesses have not achieved SOURCE: Enterprise Surveys, World Bank, 2012; Australia Bureau of Statistics, 2012, 2007; eBay; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 9797 78 10010010010010098100 4 15 2 11 18 14 25 4 12 16 United States FranceAustraliaUkraineSouth Africa PeruJordanIndonesiaIndiaChile Share of eBay commercial sellers and offline SMEs that export, 2012 % Traditional SMEs eBay sellers Emerging economies Developed economies 14
  • 17. Flows contribute 15 to 25 percent of GDP growth each year … $250 billion– 450 billionAnnual increase in world GDP from intensity of flows—worth 15–25% of world GDP growth 16
  • 18. … and countries with more connections benefit more—with both inflows and outflows mattering for growth +40%Difference in impact of flows on GDP growth for countries at the center of the network compared with ones at the periphery 17
  • 19. SOURCE: Comtrade; IHS Global Insights; UN WTO; Telegeography; World Development Indicators, World Bank; McKinsey Global Institute analysis Country connectedness index and overall flows data, 2012 Rank of participation by flow as measured by trade intensity and share of world total 18 Connectedness of countries across flows varies, with Germany at the top of the list Rank Country Rank change Goods Services Financial People Data Flows value Flow intensity (%) Change intensity 1 Germany 1 3 5 7 5 2 3,770 110 53 2 Hong Kong 1 4 3 14 1,437 546 3 United States -1 8 9 5 1 7 5,622 35 2 4 Singapore 1 2 3 4 18 5 1,198 436 8 5 United Kingdom -1 13 6 9 7 3 1,471 60 -26 6 Netherlands 2 6 7 15 29 1 1,213 157 39 7 France -1 9 10 36 15 4 1,581 60 8 8 Canada -1 16 22 13 9 18 1,381 76 -3 9 Russia 19 30 16 2 21 1,277 63 9 Italy 2 11 20 31 16 10 1,187 59 4 16 Saudi Arabia 19 20 29 19 8 44 729 103 40 20 South Korea 4 7 14 25 58 34 1,393 123 21 Japan -1 14 24 10 82 15 2,652 44 18 25 China 5 5 21 6 93 33 5,124 62 8 30 India 16 27 13 26 47 64 1,131 61 37 43 Brazil 15 39 40 18 115 38 757 34 11 49 South Africa -3 43 50 49 56 73 242 63 12 53 Morocco 26 57 42 79 41 63 91 95 46 Development Developed Emerging Connectivity Index 51+ 26-50 11-25 1-10 <70% 70-99% 100%+Flow intensity
  • 20. There were some surprises in our country-specific findings SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis 19 The United Kingdom is highly connected across all flows but lags behind in goods flows—its flow intensity has dropped sharply Germany overtook the United States as the most connected country, gaining in all flows Russia is the most connected emerging market, at 9th overall. It is especially high on people flows South Korea and Japan are export powerhouses but overall rank only 20th and 21st, respectively, due to low people flows Argentina dropped 6 places —and 24 places on financial flows—after its 2002 financial crisis and sovereign default Brazil gained 15 places from 1995 to 2012 due to services and financial flows, but ranks only 43rd overall Mauritius and Morocco gained 28 and 26 places respectively, the most of any countries Saudi Arabia gained 19 places from 1995 to 2012, largely due to booming financial flows China is ranked very high on goods and financial flows but overall is only 25th due to very low people flows India gained 16 places from 1995 to 2012 as net services imports changed to exports Singapore’s high connectivity (4th overall) is mainly driven by its trade intensity, given its role as a waypoint The United States ranks 3rd on the connectedness index but, among the large economies, has one of the lowest flow intensities (36%) relative to the size of its economy South Africa ranks in the middle of the pack on the world stage but is in the top 3 sub-Saharan African countries for all 5 flows
  • 21. SOURCE: Comtrade; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments; World Development Indicators; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 84 52 50 39 28 25 21 21 10 4 South Asia Eastern Europe and Central Asia China region Northeast Asia Australasia Western Europe United States and Canada Africa and Middle East Latin America Southeast Asia Developed Emerging Country connectedness score by region, 20121 Average rank Change in rank, 1995-20122 -1.0 -0.8 -2.2 0.4 5.0 0.7 10.0 -2.6 5.2 -0.4 LessconnectedMoreconnected 20 Advanced economies are the most connected regions with emerging regions far behind
  • 22. Key insights onthe United States 1. TheUSishighly connected, ranked third intheworld inoverall connectedness: itisfirstin people flows, andtopteninall other flows 2. Despite large gains inconnectedness around theworld inthelast15years, theUSisstill atthetopoftheranking 3. TheUSisthelargest producer ofknowledge-intensive flows and iscentral totheglobal knowledge network 4. However, USflowintensity islow, even compared toother large economies.This suggests room forgrowth 5. USflows aredominated byNAFTA countries and afewother large advanced economies; there isabigopportunity todiversify trade partners 6. TheUnited States’leading position inpeople flows could beslipping: ithaslost share of foreign students ,tourists, and business travelers
  • 23. Thank you Follow us on Twitter: www.mckinsey.com/mgi Download our reports: @mckinsey_mgi 22