Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Global flows in a digital age

8,083 views

Published on

One in three goods crosses national borders, and more than one-third of financial investments are international transactions. And in the next decade, global flows could triple, powered by rising prosperity and participation in the emerging world. In a new McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report, "Global flows in a digital age: How trade, finance, people, and data connect the world economy," scenarios show that global flows could reach $54 trillion to $85 trillion by 2025.

Published in: Business
  • DOWNLOAD THAT BOOKS INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT (2019 Update) ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { http://bit.ly/2m6jJ5M } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full EPUB Ebook here { http://bit.ly/2m6jJ5M } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full doc Ebook here { http://bit.ly/2m6jJ5M } ......................................................................................................................... Download PDF EBOOK here { http://bit.ly/2m6jJ5M } ......................................................................................................................... Download EPUB Ebook here { http://bit.ly/2m6jJ5M } ......................................................................................................................... Download doc Ebook here { http://bit.ly/2m6jJ5M } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ................................................................................................................................... eBook is an electronic version of a traditional print book that can be read by using a personal computer or by using an eBook reader. (An eBook reader can be a software application for use on a computer such as Microsoft's free Reader application, or a book-sized computer that is used solely as a reading device such as Nuvomedia's Rocket eBook.) Users can purchase an eBook on diskette or CD, but the most popular method of getting an eBook is to purchase a downloadable file of the eBook (or other reading material) from a Web site (such as Barnes and Noble) to be read from the user's computer or reading device. Generally, an eBook can be downloaded in five minutes or less ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks .............................................................................................................................. Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .....BEST SELLER FOR EBOOK RECOMMEND............................................................. ......................................................................................................................... Blowout: Corrupted Democracy, Rogue State Russia, and the Richest, Most Destructive Industry on Earth,-- The Ride of a Lifetime: Lessons Learned from 15 Years as CEO of the Walt Disney Company,-- Call Sign Chaos: Learning to Lead,-- StrengthsFinder 2.0,-- Stillness Is the Key,-- She Said: Breaking the Sexual Harassment Story That Helped Ignite a Movement,-- Atomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones,-- Everything Is Figureoutable,-- What It Takes: Lessons in the Pursuit of Excellence,-- Rich Dad Poor Dad: What the Rich Teach Their Kids About Money That the Poor and Middle Class Do Not!,-- The Total Money Makeover: Classic Edition: A Proven Plan for Financial Fitness,-- Shut Up and Listen!: Hard Business Truths that Will Help You Succeed, ......................................................................................................................... .........................................................................................................................
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • ACCESS that WEBSITE Over for All Ebooks (Unlimited) ......................................................................................................................... DOWNLOAD FULL PDF EBOOK here { http://bit.ly/2m6jJ5M } ......................................................................................................................... DOWNLOAD FULL EPUB Ebook here { http://bit.ly/2m6jJ5M } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { http://bit.ly/2m6jJ5M } ......................................................................................................................... Download EPUB Ebook here { http://bit.ly/2m6jJ5M }
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • DOWNLOAD FULL BOOKS, INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ,DOWNLOAD FULL. PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ,DOWNLOAD FULL. EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ,DOWNLOAD FULL. doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ,DOWNLOAD FULL. PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ,DOWNLOAD FULL. EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ,DOWNLOAD FULL. doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks ......................................................................................................................... Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult,
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • DOWNLOAD FULL BOOKS, INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ,DOWNLOAD FULL. PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ,DOWNLOAD FULL. EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ,DOWNLOAD FULL. doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ,DOWNLOAD FULL. PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ,DOWNLOAD FULL. EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ,DOWNLOAD FULL. doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yyxo9sk7 } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks ......................................................................................................................... Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult,
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • DOWNLOAD FULL BOOKS, INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/yxufevpm } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yxufevpm } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yxufevpm } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. PDF EBOOK here { https://tinyurl.com/yxufevpm } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. EPUB Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yxufevpm } ......................................................................................................................... 1.DOWNLOAD FULL. doc Ebook here { https://tinyurl.com/yxufevpm } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks ......................................................................................................................... Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult,
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here

Global flows in a digital age

  1. 1. Speaker name Speaker title April 2014 May 2014 Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited GLOBAL FLOWS IN A DIGITAL AGE: HOW TRADE, FINANCE, PEOPLE, AND DATA CONNECT THE WORLD ECONOMY MCKINSEY GLOBAL INSTITUTE
  2. 2. Global flows are growing and knowledge-intensive flows dominate
  3. 3. All flows are growing faster than GDP, with the exception of people flows Value and growth (%) of cross-border flow 2012 value (CAGR 2000-2012) Goods $17.5 trillion Services $4.4 trillion Financial $4 trillion People 194 million people Data and communication 21.2 million megabits/sec 11% 10% 6% 2% 52% 2
  4. 4. Global flows of goods, services, and finance reached $25.9 trillion in 2012 – and could triple by 2025 SOURCE: Comtrade; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments; World Trade Organization; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1995 20121990 25.9 11.5 7.6 5.0 24.6 29.3 2005 17.0 2000 Goods, services, and financial flows; share of GDP, 1980–2012 $ trillion, nominal; % 3 23% 25% 36% 44% 36% Goods flows Financial flows Service flows X % global GDP Scenarios for global flows in 2025 $ trillion, nominal 38% 44% 49% 8 13 18 10 13 16 36 44 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Slowdown 85 54 Gaining momentum Continuing momentum 70
  5. 5. Total value of flows Trillion USD 2.1 Foreign direct investment R&D-intensive manufacturing 25.9 8.5 1.8 13.5All other flows Business, financial, legal services 5.5% 10.9% 7.9% 7.0% Growth rate 2002-12, % SOURCE: Comtrade; World Development Indicators, World Bank; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments; Telegography; McKinsey Global Institute analysis Knowledge-intensive flows are half of total flows, and are growing faster than other types 4 Knowledge- intensive
  6. 6. The vast majority of knowledge-intensive flows occur in developed economies—with China as an outlier Total knowledge-intensive inflows and outflows, 20121 Relative area corresponds to the portion of global inflows/outflows Developed Emerging SOURCE: Comtrade; IMF Balance of Payments; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 1 A knowledge-intensive flow is a flow with embedded information, ideas, or expertise that is transferred when exchanged. Foreign direct investment is classed as a knowledge-intensive flow because it often entails the transfer of embedded ideas, management expertise, and technology. 119 other countries United States China Germany Netherlands Singapore Italy Canada Belgium Mexico Taiwan SwedenMalaysiaBrazilRussiaIrelandIndiaSpainSwitzerland South Korea Hong Kong (China) FranceUnited KingdomJapan Hungary Mauritius Luxembourg THA AUS AUT POL CZE TUR SAU NOR DNK ISR FIN ARG VNM CHL SVK ZAF ROM UKR PHL PRT 5
  7. 7. Flow networks are broadening and deepening
  8. 8. Networks of global flows are expanding: Goods SOURCE: Comtrade; World Development Indicators, World Bank; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments; Telegography; McKinsey Global Institute analysis Regions US United States and Canada LA Latin America WE Western Europe EE Eastern Europe and Central Asia CH China region NE Northeast Asia AU Australasia OA Other Asia ME Middle East and Africa 0.25–0.500.05–0.10 0.50–1.00 >1.000.10–0.250.02–0.05 % of global GDP Goods flows 1980 100% = $1.8 trillion US LA WE EE CH NE AU OA ME US LA WE EE CH NE AU OA ME 2011 100% = $17.2 trillion 7 10x
  9. 9. Cross-border Internet traffic flows are dispersing rapidly SOURCE: Comtrade; World Development Indicators, World Bank; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments; Telegography; McKinsey Global Institute analysis US LA WE EE CH NE AU OA ME US LA WE EE CH NE AU OA ME 500,000– 1 million 50,000– 100,000 1 million– 5 million >5 million100,000– 500,000 <50,000Bandwidth Mbps 2008 100% = 29 million Mbps 2013 100% = 201 million Mbps 8 Cross-border bandwidth Regions US United States and Canada LA Latin America WE Western Europe EE Eastern Europe and Central Asia CH China region NE Northeast Asia AU Australasia OA Other Asia ME Middle East and Africa 7x
  10. 10. SOURCE: IHS Global Insight; Comtrade; Teleogeography; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments; World Development Indicators; McKinsey Global Institute analysis Emerging economies’ share of total inflows and outflows % Emerging economies are gaining share in global flows 9 1 Emerging economies accounted for 65.4 percent of migrants in 2000 and 64.7 percent in 2010. 2 Measured by cross-border bandwidth. 26 9 22 10 18 Financial (2002–12) 37 Goods (2002–12) 39 Services (2002–12) 32 Knowledge-intensive (2002–11)1 33 Data and comms (2005–13) 24 Developed economy share % Growth in share, base year–final year Base year 76 68 63 61 67 Emerging markets’ share of global GDP, 2012 39%
  11. 11. Goods trade among emerging markets (“South-South”) has quadrupled its share of goods trade since 1990 SOURCE: The Direction of Trade, IMF; McKinsey Global Institute analysis Goods trade among countries %; $ trillion 10 34 42 60 48 6 10 24 45 31 100% = 2012 17.5 2000 6.5 1990 3.3 North-South Between developed markets (North-North) Between emerging markets (South-South)
  12. 12. Digitization is transforming all global flows
  13. 13. SOURCE: iResearch, Telegeography, OCED, Bureau of Economic Analysis The digital component of global flows is growing quickly 3.0 3.0 51.0 39.0 63.0 12.1 Calls (Skype share of international calls) Goods (E-commerce share of total goods trade) Services (Digitally-enabled share of total services trade) Category (digital component) 2005 2013Share of selected cross-border flows that are digital % 12
  14. 14. SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis Digital goods Online platforms Digital wrappers 13 Digitization is transforming global flows in three ways
  15. 15. Online platforms enable businesses to attain global reach that comparable offline businesses have not achieved SOURCE: Enterprise Surveys, World Bank, 2012; Australia Bureau of Statistics, 2012, 2007; eBay; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 9797 78 10010010010010098100 4 15 2 11 18 14 25 4 12 16 United States FranceAustraliaUkraineSouth Africa PeruJordanIndonesiaIndiaChile Share of eBay commercial sellers and offline SMEs that export, 2012 % Traditional SMEs eBay sellers Emerging economies Developed economies 14
  16. 16. Flows matter and country connectedness varies
  17. 17. Flows contribute 15 to 25 percent of GDP growth each year … $250 billion– 450 billionAnnual increase in world GDP from intensity of flows—worth 15–25% of world GDP growth 16
  18. 18. … and countries with more connections benefit more—with both inflows and outflows mattering for growth +40%Difference in impact of flows on GDP growth for countries at the center of the network compared with ones at the periphery 17
  19. 19. SOURCE: Comtrade; IHS Global Insights; UN WTO; Telegeography; World Development Indicators, World Bank; McKinsey Global Institute analysis Country connectedness index and overall flows data, 2012 Rank of participation by flow as measured by trade intensity and share of world total 18 Connectedness of countries across flows varies, with Germany at the top of the list Rank Country Rank change Goods Services Financial People Data Flows value Flow intensity (%) Change intensity 1 Germany 1 3 5 7 5 2 3,770 110 53 2 Hong Kong 1 4 3 14 1,437 546 3 United States -1 8 9 5 1 7 5,622 35 2 4 Singapore 1 2 3 4 18 5 1,198 436 8 5 United Kingdom -1 13 6 9 7 3 1,471 60 -26 6 Netherlands 2 6 7 15 29 1 1,213 157 39 7 France -1 9 10 36 15 4 1,581 60 8 8 Canada -1 16 22 13 9 18 1,381 76 -3 9 Russia 19 30 16 2 21 1,277 63 9 Italy 2 11 20 31 16 10 1,187 59 4 16 Saudi Arabia 19 20 29 19 8 44 729 103 40 20 South Korea 4 7 14 25 58 34 1,393 123 21 Japan -1 14 24 10 82 15 2,652 44 18 25 China 5 5 21 6 93 33 5,124 62 8 30 India 16 27 13 26 47 64 1,131 61 37 43 Brazil 15 39 40 18 115 38 757 34 11 49 South Africa -3 43 50 49 56 73 242 63 12 53 Morocco 26 57 42 79 41 63 91 95 46 Development Developed Emerging Connectivity Index 51+ 26-50 11-25 1-10 <70% 70-99% 100%+Flow intensity
  20. 20. There were some surprises in our country-specific findings SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis 19 The United Kingdom is highly connected across all flows but lags behind in goods flows—its flow intensity has dropped sharply Germany overtook the United States as the most connected country, gaining in all flows Russia is the most connected emerging market, at 9th overall. It is especially high on people flows South Korea and Japan are export powerhouses but overall rank only 20th and 21st, respectively, due to low people flows Argentina dropped 6 places —and 24 places on financial flows—after its 2002 financial crisis and sovereign default Brazil gained 15 places from 1995 to 2012 due to services and financial flows, but ranks only 43rd overall Mauritius and Morocco gained 28 and 26 places respectively, the most of any countries Saudi Arabia gained 19 places from 1995 to 2012, largely due to booming financial flows China is ranked very high on goods and financial flows but overall is only 25th due to very low people flows India gained 16 places from 1995 to 2012 as net services imports changed to exports Singapore’s high connectivity (4th overall) is mainly driven by its trade intensity, given its role as a waypoint The United States ranks 3rd on the connectedness index but, among the large economies, has one of the lowest flow intensities (36%) relative to the size of its economy South Africa ranks in the middle of the pack on the world stage but is in the top 3 sub-Saharan African countries for all 5 flows
  21. 21. SOURCE: Comtrade; International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments; World Development Indicators; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 84 52 50 39 28 25 21 21 10 4 South Asia Eastern Europe and Central Asia China region Northeast Asia Australasia Western Europe United States and Canada Africa and Middle East Latin America Southeast Asia Developed Emerging Country connectedness score by region, 20121 Average rank Change in rank, 1995-20122 -1.0 -0.8 -2.2 0.4 5.0 0.7 10.0 -2.6 5.2 -0.4 LessconnectedMoreconnected 20 Advanced economies are the most connected regions with emerging regions far behind
  22. 22. Key insights onthe United States 1. TheUSishighly connected, ranked third intheworld inoverall connectedness: itisfirstin people flows, andtopteninall other flows 2. Despite large gains inconnectedness around theworld inthelast15years, theUSisstill atthetopoftheranking 3. TheUSisthelargest producer ofknowledge-intensive flows and iscentral totheglobal knowledge network 4. However, USflowintensity islow, even compared toother large economies.This suggests room forgrowth 5. USflows aredominated byNAFTA countries and afewother large advanced economies; there isabigopportunity todiversify trade partners 6. TheUnited States’leading position inpeople flows could beslipping: ithaslost share of foreign students ,tourists, and business travelers
  23. 23. Thank you Follow us on Twitter: www.mckinsey.com/mgi Download our reports: @mckinsey_mgi 22

×