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A labor market that works:
Connecting talent and
opportunity in the digital age
JUNE 4TH, 2015
Any use of this material without specific permission
of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited
McKinsey & Company | 1
Companies that adopt these technologies can increase revenue,
reduce costs, and improve profit margins by ~275 basis points
3
To capture the opportunity, we need to close the digital divide,
harness the data to inform education and training choices, address
data ownership and privacy, and rethink labor regulations and worker
benefits
4
Key messages
2
Online talent platforms could have enormous economic impact
and societal benefits
▪ Increase global GDP by $2.7 trillion by 2025
▪ Improve work outcomes for 540 million people
▪ Enhance innovation, creative destruction, and the overall skill mix
of economies
1 Online talent platforms improve transparency and efficiency in
labor markets by matching workers with traditional jobs, creating
digital marketplaces for freelance work, and enabling employers to
recruit and retain talent
McKinsey & Company | 2
Labor market challenges
are bigger than people
think
McKinsey & Company | 3SOURCE: BLS; OECD; UN; World Bank; ILO; national sources; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
30 to 45 percent of the working-age population is
economically underutilized in countries around the world
NOTE: Part-time employment data are not available for China, Brazil, and India. For Japan we use non-regular employment as a proxy. The percent of
people unemployed is lower than the unemployment rate because the latter has only the labor force in the denominator
1 Inactive, unemployed, and part-time
62 60 59 52
74 70
54
13 13 20
28 23 24 25 23 25
44
100% = 1,010
4
United
States
834139
5
United
Kingdom
202
6
4
Germany Japan
78
3
Brazil
41
5
China
54
4
2
India
%; million people UnemploymentInactive Full-timePart-time
77 1721 37 273 41 381
Working-age
population (age 15–64)
by status and country,
2013
Total number of
underutilized workers1
Million
~850
McKinsey & Company | 4
300 million youth worldwide are not in employment,
education or training
SOURCE: OECD; ILO; Eurostat; UN; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
7
14
14
17
23
24
35
43
52
53
54
Japan
Brazil
United States
United Kingdom
France
Ireland
Portugal
Italy
Greece
Spain
South Africa3
Youth unemployment rate, 2013 or latest
% of the labor force aged 15–24
Youth not in employment,
education or training
Thousand people, aged 15-24
6,409
871
121
717
104
90
1,728
451
6,954
6,721
821
~300 million
worldwide
McKinsey & Company | 5
1.5
1.8
5.5
4.2
1.7
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.2
Arts, design & entertainment
Maintenance & repair
Social services
Natural & social science
Architecture & engineering
Healthcare practitioners
18.7Construction & extraction
Cleaning & maintenance 10.7
Production
Food services
Computer & mathematical
Labor markets around the world suffer from skill shortages
and matching problems
SOURCE: Burning Glass; BLS; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Ratio of number of unemployed people to job postings in the United States, 2014
Too few
workers
Matching
problems?
Too much
unemployment
~4.0 million
job postings
~8.5 million
unemployed
people
McKinsey & Company | 6
Labor market fluidity – or the rate of job change – is
declining across countries
SOURCE: OECD; National Sources; McKinsey Global Institute
Share of people whose current job tenure is less than one year1
% of total employment,
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Brazil
United States
201310080604022000
Japan
Italy
France
Germany
United Kingdom
1 Proxy for labor market fluidity.
-3.7
0.3
-1.4
-1.7
-5.5
-1.6
-1.3
Declining labor
market fluidity
may contribute to
higher long-term
unemployment
and reduced
wage gains
Change,
2000–13
Percentage
points
McKinsey & Company | 7
Across countries, 37% of surveyed workers say their jobs do
not fully utilize their skills
SOURCE: LinkedIn Job Seeker Survey, 2014; N=1,510
% of respondents who selected “finding a better skill set fit,” “more challenging work,” and
“a more impactful role” as the three top factors enticing them to pursue a new job opportunity
n = 1,510
2727
36
393940
48
United
States
BrazilChinaUnited
Kingdom
IndiaGermanyJapan
All countries = 37
McKinsey & Company | 8
Online talent platforms
are part of the solution
McKinsey & Company | 9
Online talent platforms are a rapidly evolving set of
websites, apps, and tools that match workers with jobs
1 All companies are illustrative and not exhaustive, many span multiple functions
Digital talent
management tools to
streamline recruiting
and training
Online marketplaces
for contingent work
Examples
More transparent,
efficient matching of
individuals with
traditional jobs
McKinsey & Company | 10SOURCE: LinkedIn 2015, McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Country
Members,
million
United Kingdom 18
France 10
Italy 8
United States of America 115
India 31
Brazil 21
Canada 11
Mexico 7
China 9
Australia 7
364
296
218
161
102
64
13 14 2015122010 11
Compound
annual growth
rate, 2010–15 =
LinkedIn facilitated ~1 million hires in 2014
LinkedIn’s growth is an example of the rapid adoption of
online talent platforms
1 Compound annual growth rate
Geographic distribution of members – top 10
countries, 2015
Number of LinkedIn members by the first quarter
of each year
Million members
41.6%
McKinsey & Company | 11
The freelance economy is already large: 1 out of 8 workers in business
services are freelancer professionals
Self-employed professionals in business services1 as share of total
%, 2014 or latest2
SOURCE: Eurostat; BLS; OECD; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
1 Includes unincorporated self-employed individuals in information and communications, finance, professional, technical, and scientific services, and
administration that do not have any other employees
2 Based on data from 2011 for the US
28
26
11
7
7
8
8
9
9
10
11
14
15
16
18
Austria
Finland
Sweden
Denmark
Ireland
Germany
Portugal
Spain
Belgium
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Greece
Italy
France
United States
McKinsey & Company | 12
Online marketplaces for freelance work are small but
growing rapidly
SOURCE: “Freelancing in America”, an independent survey commissioned by Freelancers Union & Elance-oDesk;
McKinsey Global Institute analysis
1 Numbers represent most recent available data, between 2013 and 2015
2,500,000 freelancers
160,000 drivers
60,000 drivers
25,000 service providers
10,000 physicians
6,000 drivers
4,000 messengers
5,400 MBA consultants
1,000 personal shoppers
225 messengers
Platform Number of individuals in the US1
McKinsey & Company | 13
55% of part-time workers – and 30% of full-time workers --
would increase their hours for more pay
% of respondents of LinkedIn survey
SOURCE: LinkedIn global survey, 2015; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
NOTE: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.
7
38
55
31
54
15
No changeIncrease hours Decrease hours
Part-time employed
n = 704
Full-time employed
n = 11,918
McKinsey & Company | 14
Percent reduction in job search time due to use of
online talent platforms
% reduction in transition time
(n = 6,924)
Online talent platforms significantly reduce job search time
and improve job options
39
43
45
46
48
50
56
China
Germany
United States
Brazil
All countries =
Japan
India
United Kingdom
41
43
44
44
44
46
52
All countries =
China
United States
Japan
Germany
United Kingdom
India
Brazil
Respondents that say online talent platforms
broaden or improve job options
% of survey respondents
(n = 5,750)
SOURCE: LinkedIn global survey, 2015; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
45 47
McKinsey & Company | 15
Online talent platforms
have significant economic
benefits
McKinsey & Company | 16
Online talent platforms can boost GDP and employment
in at least five ways
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute
1 Increasing participation: Enabling inactive and
under-employed workers to new and/or flexible
work arrangements that increase hours worked
5 Reducing informality: Shifting individuals from
informal to formal employment with higher
productivity
4 Better matches: Helping individuals find jobs that
better fit their talent, raising productivity
3 New matches: Helping under-staffed companies
and unemployed jobseekers to find new types
of matches that were not available to them
2 Faster matches: Decreasing the duration
of unemployment by helping companies
and workers find each other faster
McKinsey & Company | 17SOURCE: MGI Online Talent Platform Model, McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Global GDP impact of online talent platforms by 2025, $ billion
Online talent platforms could increase global GDP by $2.7 trillion
by 2025 and raise employment by 72 million FTEs
1,270
700
335
2,700
290
Total impact,
2025
Higher
productivity
625
Reduced
unemployment
105
Higher
participation1
805
1 Includes increasing participation among people who currently do not work and increasing hours among part-time workers.
2 Full-time equivalents.
NOTE: Numbers may not sum due to rounding.
72 47 25
2.0
Employment
increase
Million FTE2
GDP increase
% 0.9 0.6 0.5
New matches
Better matches
Reduced informality
Faster matches
McKinsey & Company | 18
GDP impact of online talent platforms by focus country, 2025
Percent
of GDP
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.9
1.1
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
1.2
0.8
1.5
2.4
1.9
2.3
1.7
1.5
2.0
Reduced
unemployment
Increased
productivity
All
countries
SOURCE: MGI Online Talent Platform Model
Higher
participation
0.5 0.5 0.9 1.9
512
68
70
78
485
222
69
1,504
GDP increase
(in USD bn)
4.1
0.8
0.7
0.9
12.9
11.3
2.7
33.3
2.7%
2.4%
1.9%
1.5%
1.7%
2.2%
1.6%
2.0%
Employment
increase (m; %)
The impact of online talent platforms differs across
countries
McKinsey & Company | 19SOURCE: MGI Online Talent Platforms Model
0.5%-0.9%<0.4% >0.9%
GDP 2-3%<2% >3%
Employment
NOTE: Numbers may not add up due to rounding.
Country
GDP
% of
GDP
Increased
participa-
tion
% of GDP
Faster
Matches
% of GDP
New
Matches
% of GDP
Better
Matches
% of GDP
Reduced
Informality
% of GDP
GDP
billion
Employment
% of Emp 1000 people
Spain 3.3 0.8 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 58 4.4 748
Greece 3.2 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 10 4.3 161
Portugal 2.5 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 7 3.2 140
Italy 2.5 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 52 3.1 734
United States 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.1 512 2.7 4,091
France 2.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.1 64 2.9 784
Belgium 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 12 2.7 120
Sweden 2.1 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.1 11 2.5 119
Finland 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 5 2.5 61
Denmark 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.1 6 2.4 67
Canada 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.1 41 2.4 436
United Kingdom 2.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.1 68 2.4 766
Australia 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 28 2.2 271
Germany 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 70 1.9 708
South Korea 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 39 1.8 416
Netherlands 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 14 1.8 147
Singapore 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 9 1.9 67
Japan 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 78 1.6 906
The impact of online talent platforms varies
across advanced economies
Reduced
unemployment Higher productivity
McKinsey & Company | 20
Country
GDP
% of
GDP
Increased
participa-
tion
% of GDP
Faster
Matches
% of GDP
New
Matches
% of GDP
Better
Matches
% of GDP
Reduced
Informality
% of GDP
GDP
billion
Employment
% of Emp 1000 people
South Africa 3.9 1.1 2.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 20 5.0 861
Colombia 3.1 0.9 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 25 3.7 946
Philippines 2.7 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.6 22 2.9 1,359
Russia 2.5 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 82 2.5 1,605
Hungary 2.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.4 7 2.9 110
Nigeria 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 20 2.6 1,889
Turkey 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 41 2.8 799
Brazil 2.4 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.6 69 2.6 2,686
Peru 2.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.8 12 2.0 320
Chile 2.3 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 12 2.8 210
Mexico 2.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 60 2.6 1,349
Poland 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.2 27 2.5 353
Indonesia 2.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.3 57 2.7 3,538
Kenya 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 3 2.4 536
Czech Republic 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 7 2.1 103
Malaysia 1.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 16 2.0 286
India 1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 222 2.2 11,343
Thailand 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 20 1.3 511
China 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 485 1.7 12,868
SOURCE: MGI Online Talent Platforms Model
NOTE: Numbers may not add up due to rounding.
Online talent platforms can also have
significant impact in developing countries
GDP
Employment
0.5%-0.9%<0.4% >0.9%
2-3%<2% >3%
Reduced
unemployment Higher productivity
McKinsey & Company | 21
230
200Higher participation
Better matches
Reduced informality
540
50
Reduced job search time
60
7
6
41
United Kingdom
Japan
Brazil
United States
India
China 92
Germany
8
21
77
SOURCE: MGI Digital Labor Model; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
1
1
4
5
10
9.1
8.1
18.5
14.2
11.2
16.1
12.5
x % of the working-age population1 x % of the working-age population
1 People aged 15-64. Numbers may not add up due to rounding.
People who can benefit from online talent
platforms by impact mechanism
Million people, 2025
People who can benefit from online talent
platforms by country
Million people, 2025
Up to 540 million people around the world could benefit
from improved job outcomes
McKinsey & Company | 22
Online talent platforms may have significant long-term
economic benefits as well
Improved effectiveness of spending on labor market
programs and education
Enhanced innovation and entrepreneurship
Improved skill mix and human capital development
of economies
Increased productivity through company impact
McKinsey & Company | 23
Online talent platforms
create value for
companies
McKinsey & Company | 24
Poor talent management increases employee turnover –
adding to recruiting and hiring costs
SOURCE: LinkedIn Job Seeker survey, 2014; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
20
20
22
27
30
Lack of challenge in the job
Dissatisfaction with
compensation/benefits
Lack of rewards/recognition
for my contributions
Unsatisfactory leadership
of senior management
Lack of opportunities
for advancement
Survey question: “Which of the following contributed to your
decision to leave your previous employer?”
% of respondents (n = 29,825)
Top performers are
2.5x more
productive than the
average worker
Attrition costs are
up to 2X the salaries
of knowledge
workers
McKinsey & Company | 25
Online talent platforms create value for companies by improving recruiting and
talent acquisition, talent management, and long-term planning
Recruiting
and talent
acquisition
Example providers, 2015
▪ More efficiently filter candidates
▪ Use more data to assess candidate fit
▪ Find better quality candidates
▪ Tailor cultivation approach to each offeree
▪ Discover hard-to-find, niche talent
Managing
individual
and group
talent
▪ Form more effective teams and groups
▪ Tailor onboarding and training
▪ Find internal expertise and knowledge
Planning for
the future
▪ Anticipate and plan for future talent needs
▪ Predict and optimize attrition
▪ Plan succession paths
McKinsey & Company | 26
The potential impact is driven by different mechanisms
in different types of companies
Low Medium High
Recruiting
Managing
talent
Planning
for the
future
Impact mechanism
Plan for succession paths
Anticipate and plan for future talent needs
Predict and optimize attrition
Find internal expertise and knowledge
Form more effective teams and groups
Personalize training & learning opportunities
Tailor onboarding
Use candidate data for better assessment
More efficiently filter to select interviewees
Discover hard-to-find, niche talent
Tailor cultivation approach to each offeree
Find better quality candidates
Total profit impact, bps
Prof.
services
540
Hospital
230
Bank
255
Manu-
facturing
120390
High
tech Retail
110
Total
profit
increase
bps
40
45
20
15
35
10
1
10
5
10
5
80
275
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis
None
McKinsey & Company | 27
Cost reduction2, %
Output
increase1, %
Incremental impact of online talent platforms
Em-
ployees
2,000
5,000
10,000
100,000
10,000
15,000
Profit impact, bpsRevenues
$0.5 billion
$2.5 billion
$2.4 billion
$31.7 billion
$11.1 billion
$2.8 billion
Online talent platforms can increase revenue by up to 9
percent and reduce costs by up to 7 percent
9
7
4
3
3
2
5
6
4
6
7
4 120
255
110
540
230
390
1 Includes productivity gains in front- and middle-office workers, which can translate into revenue or other increased output opportunities
2 Includes productivity effect in middle- and back-office workers and savings in recruiting, interviewing time, training, onboarding, and attrition costs
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis
Hospital
Professional
services
Manu-
facturing
Bank
High Tech
Retail
Model
company
5% 5% 275
bpsAverage
McKinsey & Company | 28
Capturing the opportunity
McKinsey & Company | 29
Policymakers:
Capturing the
opportunity
1 Create universal access to digital
infrastructure and digital literacy skills
29
4 Rethink labour regulations and provision of
worker benefits for freelance workers
3 Establish legal and regulatory frameworks for
data ownership, privacy, and data security
2 Open public databases and statistics to
facilitate skill forecasting and planning
McKinsey & Company | 30
Individuals:
Navigating the new
world of work
1 Broader choices, greater agency. 38% of survey
respondents say online talent platforms enabled
them to get jobs they would not have found
3 Finding the right job. Hires from online talent
platforms are 8X more likely to be in their role two
years later than other hires
2 More informed decisions. More transparency on
skills demanded, credentials needed, and job
placement record of schools and training providers
30
4 Flexible work arrangements. Increasing
participation for some; choosing to be your own
boss for others
McKinsey & Company | 31
Companies:
Rethinking talent
management
31
2 Build the capabilities within HR to enable
advanced analytics
1 Digitize and redesign recruiting, training,
performance review and operating processes
3 Develop more granular talent forecasting and
talent pipeline management
4 Manage the company's external talent brand
McKinsey & Company | 32
Thank you
Follow us on Twitter:
www.mckinsey.com/mgi
Download our reports:
@mckinsey_mgi

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McKinsey Global Institute Report - A labor market that works: Connecting talent and opportunity in the digital age

  • 1. A labor market that works: Connecting talent and opportunity in the digital age JUNE 4TH, 2015 Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited
  • 2. McKinsey & Company | 1 Companies that adopt these technologies can increase revenue, reduce costs, and improve profit margins by ~275 basis points 3 To capture the opportunity, we need to close the digital divide, harness the data to inform education and training choices, address data ownership and privacy, and rethink labor regulations and worker benefits 4 Key messages 2 Online talent platforms could have enormous economic impact and societal benefits ▪ Increase global GDP by $2.7 trillion by 2025 ▪ Improve work outcomes for 540 million people ▪ Enhance innovation, creative destruction, and the overall skill mix of economies 1 Online talent platforms improve transparency and efficiency in labor markets by matching workers with traditional jobs, creating digital marketplaces for freelance work, and enabling employers to recruit and retain talent
  • 3. McKinsey & Company | 2 Labor market challenges are bigger than people think
  • 4. McKinsey & Company | 3SOURCE: BLS; OECD; UN; World Bank; ILO; national sources; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 30 to 45 percent of the working-age population is economically underutilized in countries around the world NOTE: Part-time employment data are not available for China, Brazil, and India. For Japan we use non-regular employment as a proxy. The percent of people unemployed is lower than the unemployment rate because the latter has only the labor force in the denominator 1 Inactive, unemployed, and part-time 62 60 59 52 74 70 54 13 13 20 28 23 24 25 23 25 44 100% = 1,010 4 United States 834139 5 United Kingdom 202 6 4 Germany Japan 78 3 Brazil 41 5 China 54 4 2 India %; million people UnemploymentInactive Full-timePart-time 77 1721 37 273 41 381 Working-age population (age 15–64) by status and country, 2013 Total number of underutilized workers1 Million ~850
  • 5. McKinsey & Company | 4 300 million youth worldwide are not in employment, education or training SOURCE: OECD; ILO; Eurostat; UN; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 7 14 14 17 23 24 35 43 52 53 54 Japan Brazil United States United Kingdom France Ireland Portugal Italy Greece Spain South Africa3 Youth unemployment rate, 2013 or latest % of the labor force aged 15–24 Youth not in employment, education or training Thousand people, aged 15-24 6,409 871 121 717 104 90 1,728 451 6,954 6,721 821 ~300 million worldwide
  • 6. McKinsey & Company | 5 1.5 1.8 5.5 4.2 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.2 Arts, design & entertainment Maintenance & repair Social services Natural & social science Architecture & engineering Healthcare practitioners 18.7Construction & extraction Cleaning & maintenance 10.7 Production Food services Computer & mathematical Labor markets around the world suffer from skill shortages and matching problems SOURCE: Burning Glass; BLS; McKinsey Global Institute analysis Ratio of number of unemployed people to job postings in the United States, 2014 Too few workers Matching problems? Too much unemployment ~4.0 million job postings ~8.5 million unemployed people
  • 7. McKinsey & Company | 6 Labor market fluidity – or the rate of job change – is declining across countries SOURCE: OECD; National Sources; McKinsey Global Institute Share of people whose current job tenure is less than one year1 % of total employment, 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Brazil United States 201310080604022000 Japan Italy France Germany United Kingdom 1 Proxy for labor market fluidity. -3.7 0.3 -1.4 -1.7 -5.5 -1.6 -1.3 Declining labor market fluidity may contribute to higher long-term unemployment and reduced wage gains Change, 2000–13 Percentage points
  • 8. McKinsey & Company | 7 Across countries, 37% of surveyed workers say their jobs do not fully utilize their skills SOURCE: LinkedIn Job Seeker Survey, 2014; N=1,510 % of respondents who selected “finding a better skill set fit,” “more challenging work,” and “a more impactful role” as the three top factors enticing them to pursue a new job opportunity n = 1,510 2727 36 393940 48 United States BrazilChinaUnited Kingdom IndiaGermanyJapan All countries = 37
  • 9. McKinsey & Company | 8 Online talent platforms are part of the solution
  • 10. McKinsey & Company | 9 Online talent platforms are a rapidly evolving set of websites, apps, and tools that match workers with jobs 1 All companies are illustrative and not exhaustive, many span multiple functions Digital talent management tools to streamline recruiting and training Online marketplaces for contingent work Examples More transparent, efficient matching of individuals with traditional jobs
  • 11. McKinsey & Company | 10SOURCE: LinkedIn 2015, McKinsey Global Institute analysis Country Members, million United Kingdom 18 France 10 Italy 8 United States of America 115 India 31 Brazil 21 Canada 11 Mexico 7 China 9 Australia 7 364 296 218 161 102 64 13 14 2015122010 11 Compound annual growth rate, 2010–15 = LinkedIn facilitated ~1 million hires in 2014 LinkedIn’s growth is an example of the rapid adoption of online talent platforms 1 Compound annual growth rate Geographic distribution of members – top 10 countries, 2015 Number of LinkedIn members by the first quarter of each year Million members 41.6%
  • 12. McKinsey & Company | 11 The freelance economy is already large: 1 out of 8 workers in business services are freelancer professionals Self-employed professionals in business services1 as share of total %, 2014 or latest2 SOURCE: Eurostat; BLS; OECD; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 1 Includes unincorporated self-employed individuals in information and communications, finance, professional, technical, and scientific services, and administration that do not have any other employees 2 Based on data from 2011 for the US 28 26 11 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 14 15 16 18 Austria Finland Sweden Denmark Ireland Germany Portugal Spain Belgium United Kingdom Netherlands Greece Italy France United States
  • 13. McKinsey & Company | 12 Online marketplaces for freelance work are small but growing rapidly SOURCE: “Freelancing in America”, an independent survey commissioned by Freelancers Union & Elance-oDesk; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 1 Numbers represent most recent available data, between 2013 and 2015 2,500,000 freelancers 160,000 drivers 60,000 drivers 25,000 service providers 10,000 physicians 6,000 drivers 4,000 messengers 5,400 MBA consultants 1,000 personal shoppers 225 messengers Platform Number of individuals in the US1
  • 14. McKinsey & Company | 13 55% of part-time workers – and 30% of full-time workers -- would increase their hours for more pay % of respondents of LinkedIn survey SOURCE: LinkedIn global survey, 2015; McKinsey Global Institute analysis NOTE: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. 7 38 55 31 54 15 No changeIncrease hours Decrease hours Part-time employed n = 704 Full-time employed n = 11,918
  • 15. McKinsey & Company | 14 Percent reduction in job search time due to use of online talent platforms % reduction in transition time (n = 6,924) Online talent platforms significantly reduce job search time and improve job options 39 43 45 46 48 50 56 China Germany United States Brazil All countries = Japan India United Kingdom 41 43 44 44 44 46 52 All countries = China United States Japan Germany United Kingdom India Brazil Respondents that say online talent platforms broaden or improve job options % of survey respondents (n = 5,750) SOURCE: LinkedIn global survey, 2015; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 45 47
  • 16. McKinsey & Company | 15 Online talent platforms have significant economic benefits
  • 17. McKinsey & Company | 16 Online talent platforms can boost GDP and employment in at least five ways SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute 1 Increasing participation: Enabling inactive and under-employed workers to new and/or flexible work arrangements that increase hours worked 5 Reducing informality: Shifting individuals from informal to formal employment with higher productivity 4 Better matches: Helping individuals find jobs that better fit their talent, raising productivity 3 New matches: Helping under-staffed companies and unemployed jobseekers to find new types of matches that were not available to them 2 Faster matches: Decreasing the duration of unemployment by helping companies and workers find each other faster
  • 18. McKinsey & Company | 17SOURCE: MGI Online Talent Platform Model, McKinsey Global Institute analysis Global GDP impact of online talent platforms by 2025, $ billion Online talent platforms could increase global GDP by $2.7 trillion by 2025 and raise employment by 72 million FTEs 1,270 700 335 2,700 290 Total impact, 2025 Higher productivity 625 Reduced unemployment 105 Higher participation1 805 1 Includes increasing participation among people who currently do not work and increasing hours among part-time workers. 2 Full-time equivalents. NOTE: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. 72 47 25 2.0 Employment increase Million FTE2 GDP increase % 0.9 0.6 0.5 New matches Better matches Reduced informality Faster matches
  • 19. McKinsey & Company | 18 GDP impact of online talent platforms by focus country, 2025 Percent of GDP 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.2 0.8 1.5 2.4 1.9 2.3 1.7 1.5 2.0 Reduced unemployment Increased productivity All countries SOURCE: MGI Online Talent Platform Model Higher participation 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.9 512 68 70 78 485 222 69 1,504 GDP increase (in USD bn) 4.1 0.8 0.7 0.9 12.9 11.3 2.7 33.3 2.7% 2.4% 1.9% 1.5% 1.7% 2.2% 1.6% 2.0% Employment increase (m; %) The impact of online talent platforms differs across countries
  • 20. McKinsey & Company | 19SOURCE: MGI Online Talent Platforms Model 0.5%-0.9%<0.4% >0.9% GDP 2-3%<2% >3% Employment NOTE: Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Country GDP % of GDP Increased participa- tion % of GDP Faster Matches % of GDP New Matches % of GDP Better Matches % of GDP Reduced Informality % of GDP GDP billion Employment % of Emp 1000 people Spain 3.3 0.8 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 58 4.4 748 Greece 3.2 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 10 4.3 161 Portugal 2.5 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 7 3.2 140 Italy 2.5 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 52 3.1 734 United States 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.1 512 2.7 4,091 France 2.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.1 64 2.9 784 Belgium 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 12 2.7 120 Sweden 2.1 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.1 11 2.5 119 Finland 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 5 2.5 61 Denmark 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.1 6 2.4 67 Canada 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.1 41 2.4 436 United Kingdom 2.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.1 68 2.4 766 Australia 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 28 2.2 271 Germany 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 70 1.9 708 South Korea 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 39 1.8 416 Netherlands 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 14 1.8 147 Singapore 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 9 1.9 67 Japan 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 78 1.6 906 The impact of online talent platforms varies across advanced economies Reduced unemployment Higher productivity
  • 21. McKinsey & Company | 20 Country GDP % of GDP Increased participa- tion % of GDP Faster Matches % of GDP New Matches % of GDP Better Matches % of GDP Reduced Informality % of GDP GDP billion Employment % of Emp 1000 people South Africa 3.9 1.1 2.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 20 5.0 861 Colombia 3.1 0.9 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.5 25 3.7 946 Philippines 2.7 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.2 0.6 22 2.9 1,359 Russia 2.5 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 82 2.5 1,605 Hungary 2.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.4 7 2.9 110 Nigeria 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 20 2.6 1,889 Turkey 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 41 2.8 799 Brazil 2.4 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.6 69 2.6 2,686 Peru 2.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.8 12 2.0 320 Chile 2.3 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 12 2.8 210 Mexico 2.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 60 2.6 1,349 Poland 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.2 27 2.5 353 Indonesia 2.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.3 57 2.7 3,538 Kenya 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 3 2.4 536 Czech Republic 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 7 2.1 103 Malaysia 1.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 16 2.0 286 India 1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 222 2.2 11,343 Thailand 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 20 1.3 511 China 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 485 1.7 12,868 SOURCE: MGI Online Talent Platforms Model NOTE: Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Online talent platforms can also have significant impact in developing countries GDP Employment 0.5%-0.9%<0.4% >0.9% 2-3%<2% >3% Reduced unemployment Higher productivity
  • 22. McKinsey & Company | 21 230 200Higher participation Better matches Reduced informality 540 50 Reduced job search time 60 7 6 41 United Kingdom Japan Brazil United States India China 92 Germany 8 21 77 SOURCE: MGI Digital Labor Model; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 1 1 4 5 10 9.1 8.1 18.5 14.2 11.2 16.1 12.5 x % of the working-age population1 x % of the working-age population 1 People aged 15-64. Numbers may not add up due to rounding. People who can benefit from online talent platforms by impact mechanism Million people, 2025 People who can benefit from online talent platforms by country Million people, 2025 Up to 540 million people around the world could benefit from improved job outcomes
  • 23. McKinsey & Company | 22 Online talent platforms may have significant long-term economic benefits as well Improved effectiveness of spending on labor market programs and education Enhanced innovation and entrepreneurship Improved skill mix and human capital development of economies Increased productivity through company impact
  • 24. McKinsey & Company | 23 Online talent platforms create value for companies
  • 25. McKinsey & Company | 24 Poor talent management increases employee turnover – adding to recruiting and hiring costs SOURCE: LinkedIn Job Seeker survey, 2014; McKinsey Global Institute analysis 20 20 22 27 30 Lack of challenge in the job Dissatisfaction with compensation/benefits Lack of rewards/recognition for my contributions Unsatisfactory leadership of senior management Lack of opportunities for advancement Survey question: “Which of the following contributed to your decision to leave your previous employer?” % of respondents (n = 29,825) Top performers are 2.5x more productive than the average worker Attrition costs are up to 2X the salaries of knowledge workers
  • 26. McKinsey & Company | 25 Online talent platforms create value for companies by improving recruiting and talent acquisition, talent management, and long-term planning Recruiting and talent acquisition Example providers, 2015 ▪ More efficiently filter candidates ▪ Use more data to assess candidate fit ▪ Find better quality candidates ▪ Tailor cultivation approach to each offeree ▪ Discover hard-to-find, niche talent Managing individual and group talent ▪ Form more effective teams and groups ▪ Tailor onboarding and training ▪ Find internal expertise and knowledge Planning for the future ▪ Anticipate and plan for future talent needs ▪ Predict and optimize attrition ▪ Plan succession paths
  • 27. McKinsey & Company | 26 The potential impact is driven by different mechanisms in different types of companies Low Medium High Recruiting Managing talent Planning for the future Impact mechanism Plan for succession paths Anticipate and plan for future talent needs Predict and optimize attrition Find internal expertise and knowledge Form more effective teams and groups Personalize training & learning opportunities Tailor onboarding Use candidate data for better assessment More efficiently filter to select interviewees Discover hard-to-find, niche talent Tailor cultivation approach to each offeree Find better quality candidates Total profit impact, bps Prof. services 540 Hospital 230 Bank 255 Manu- facturing 120390 High tech Retail 110 Total profit increase bps 40 45 20 15 35 10 1 10 5 10 5 80 275 SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis None
  • 28. McKinsey & Company | 27 Cost reduction2, % Output increase1, % Incremental impact of online talent platforms Em- ployees 2,000 5,000 10,000 100,000 10,000 15,000 Profit impact, bpsRevenues $0.5 billion $2.5 billion $2.4 billion $31.7 billion $11.1 billion $2.8 billion Online talent platforms can increase revenue by up to 9 percent and reduce costs by up to 7 percent 9 7 4 3 3 2 5 6 4 6 7 4 120 255 110 540 230 390 1 Includes productivity gains in front- and middle-office workers, which can translate into revenue or other increased output opportunities 2 Includes productivity effect in middle- and back-office workers and savings in recruiting, interviewing time, training, onboarding, and attrition costs SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute analysis Hospital Professional services Manu- facturing Bank High Tech Retail Model company 5% 5% 275 bpsAverage
  • 29. McKinsey & Company | 28 Capturing the opportunity
  • 30. McKinsey & Company | 29 Policymakers: Capturing the opportunity 1 Create universal access to digital infrastructure and digital literacy skills 29 4 Rethink labour regulations and provision of worker benefits for freelance workers 3 Establish legal and regulatory frameworks for data ownership, privacy, and data security 2 Open public databases and statistics to facilitate skill forecasting and planning
  • 31. McKinsey & Company | 30 Individuals: Navigating the new world of work 1 Broader choices, greater agency. 38% of survey respondents say online talent platforms enabled them to get jobs they would not have found 3 Finding the right job. Hires from online talent platforms are 8X more likely to be in their role two years later than other hires 2 More informed decisions. More transparency on skills demanded, credentials needed, and job placement record of schools and training providers 30 4 Flexible work arrangements. Increasing participation for some; choosing to be your own boss for others
  • 32. McKinsey & Company | 31 Companies: Rethinking talent management 31 2 Build the capabilities within HR to enable advanced analytics 1 Digitize and redesign recruiting, training, performance review and operating processes 3 Develop more granular talent forecasting and talent pipeline management 4 Manage the company's external talent brand
  • 33. McKinsey & Company | 32 Thank you Follow us on Twitter: www.mckinsey.com/mgi Download our reports: @mckinsey_mgi