MWG Big Data & Media - Nick North (GfK UK)
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MWG Big Data & Media - Nick North (GfK UK)
- 1. BIG, REAL TIME AND CONNECTED Nick North global lead of media & entertainment November 2012 Big, Real Time and Connected | MWG | © GfK 2012earbeiten 1
- 2. GfK Delivers Knowledge for Decision-Making Companies need to make decisions. Knowledge is the basis for decision-making. Big, Real Time and Connected | MWG | © GfK 2012earbeiten 2
- 3. Agenda – the impact of big data everywhere Big, Real Time and Connected | MWG | © GfK 2012earbeiten 3
- 4. Sharing our lives through multi-dimensional media usage A dyschronic world of near infinite choice, transportability, real-time targeting, convergence and simultaneous use When the number of possible outcomes is greater than the number of possible observations, meaningful conclusions become more difficult Big, Real Time and Connected | MWG | © GfK 2012earbeiten 4
- 5. Measuring content across TV Return Path Data platforms New tools to measure the Opt-in heterogeneity of the digital audience and cross-platform TV Meter cross-media consumption Reference data (loyalty, Panel Data geographic, Cookie Site traffic. integrati Mobile In real time. customer data, on Meter Online Panel panel Social media. advertising Panel logs, etc.) Permissions Mobile server data Big, Real Time and Connected | MWG | © GfK 2012earbeiten 5
- 6. Benefits of real time TV intelligence Marketing • Quality of service • Deep and longtail audience tracking • Real time service • Quality of experience • Ad viewer validation management • Retention optimisation • Carriage deals • Cross/up-sell targeting • VOD / entertainment • Real time ad targeting sales tracking Engineering • Content discovery • Selling “zeros” Commercial Operators Advertisers Big, Real Time and Connected | MWG | © GfK 2012earbeiten 6
- 7. Social intelligence? Available ≠ Valuable If you’re making decisions purely Thousands based on social media analysis… 12,000 Britain‟s Got Talent The Voice 10,000 UK Audience Size The 8,000 EastEnders Apprentice Thousands 2,500 The Big Bang 6,000 Theory 2,000 4,000 Question Homeland Audience Size The Simpsons Time The Inbetweeners 1,500 2,000 Beverly Hills Top Gear Made in 90210 One Tree Hill Crimewatch Chelsea Family Guy 0 1,000 Tweets 500 South Park The Young Scrubs Ones Star Wars Blackadder … don’t. 0 facebook fans Big, Real Time and Connected | MWG | © GfK 2012earbeiten 7
- 8. Geo Intelligence – everything happens somewhere Most data has a spatial home component, most of our too far devices are geo- Buy flowers connected Meet for a drink Spatial context is key to analyze behaviour and intention Lunch Gym The ‚where„ is needed to analyse the ‚what„ and work Meeting understand the ‚why„ Location, movement and taxonomy influence predictive analytical performance Big, Real Time and Connected | MWG | © GfK 2012earbeiten 8
- 9. Our connected devices music player have become .... camera map & guide address book eReader calendar photo album scrap book friend finder calculator best buy advisor watch sports companion ... our alarm clock exobrains. Big, Real Time and Connected | MWG | © GfK 2012earbeiten 9
- 10. Our connected devices now.... Store our memories Reduce our attention span Maintain our friendships Guide our choices Limit our focus Project our digital selves Create shallow (Start to) address our needs hyperconnectivity Through great effort on our part Big, Real Time and Connected | MWG | © GfK 2012earbeiten 10
- 11. Machine Enhanced Choices How our exobrains will shape our future behaviour Feelings statistical analysis Past actions Future intentions prediction behaviour Information Memories behavioural tracking input process output Trust in the machine Big, Real Time and Connected | MWG | © GfK 2012earbeiten Faith Proof 11
- 12. Barriers to the Singularity Which, if any, of the following best describe your reasons for choosing not to share things online or engage in online activities on social networks or other websites? (UK, October, 2012) Fear All 16-34 55+ I am worried about my privacy 48.2 109 98 It risks theft of my identity or cyberfraud 27.8 85 115 I don't want people to send me things that might offend me 13.7 72 136 I'm not sure whether people will like what I share 8.6 158 66 Rejection It's not an important part of my life 40.2 80 119 I've got better things to do with my time 33.9 74 121 Increases unwanted junk mail and spam messages 26.1 77 129 If I have something important to say, I'll say it in person 24.2 69 131 My views are personal and I am not interested in sharing them 23.7 75 132 SharingTime and Connected |impersonal Big, Real online is too MWG | © GfK 2012earbeiten 13 97 108 12
- 13. Challenges for brands • Build trust • Help us choose the things that we will value • Deliver real consumer benefit and sufficient consumer control • Smart analytical tools • Intelligent targeting Big, Real Time and Connected | MWG | © GfK 2012earbeiten 13
- 14. Why do people give me socks for Christmas? • Garbage In, Garbage Out • While our digital intelligence is still in its infancy, we will still need to ask the right questions to make better decisions Big, Real Time and Connected | MWG | © GfK 2012earbeiten 14
- 15. THANK YOU nick.north@gfk.com Big, Real Time and Connected | MWG | © GfK 2012earbeiten 15
Editor's Notes
- We help companies around the world understand the dynamics of their marketplace and how their customers behave and make decisions
- how 'big data' will change our understanding of the media consumerhow real time audience analytics will shape programming and media tradinghow and why customer data and return path data will play a role in audience measurement in the futurehow location will be a standard analysis variable for media consumptionwhy "available" does not equal "valuable“ (the metrics of conveniencechanging advertising trading business models and the risk to the future of research panelsIN an ideal world, lots of data. Produced by exobrain, an appropriate piece of software for what I want to talk about.Context is key to analysing behaviourMovement and location.
- And when we look at the current trends, we see growth of connected TV, of transportability of content and control across a growing number of connected devices in the home.everything coincides with everything else. That’s becausepopular cultural time has collapsed in on itself. There’s a crisis of overavailabilty — nothing dies. It comes back as a box set retrospective or on YouTube. TV is increasingly social, participatoryTV is among top three topics of conversationWe know that word of mouth hugely influential on consumer behaviourVast volumes of social media is TV relatedWhat we supposeThat social media can enrich the viewing experienceThat social media can enhance content discoveryWhat we don’t knowWhat meaning or value can be placed upon a Facebook “like”? How representative or influential are social media? Do tweets have disproportionate influence on a broadcaster’s decision-making process?And just how prevalent are these new behaviours?
- Neutral unbiased measurements. History repeating itselfPreviously: Only samples representative of the universe, all information gathered with permissionComscore et al:Sharp practices well documented of distributors installing tracking tech without permission, big panels, poor qualityBabies, bathwater, and a logical fallacyA fundamental change in mindset among digital generation. Recognition of the inadequacy of classic sample sizes for meaningful measurement, leading to a rejection of sampling theory itself (baby and bathwater)Measurement of viewer behaviour is ‘audience measurement’. Some audience measurement is used for advertising trading. Logical fallacy: all ad trading services require high quality representative samples, therefore all audience measurement services require rep samples.Using RPD to replicate an old business model (TV advertising trading currency), not really thinking about the core benefits to the data owner itself.
- Uselessness of trendrrChart showing fb and twitter non relationshipIf you’re making decisions based on sma purely, don’t.
- Through great effort on our part Investment of time in our second selves 100,000 years a month on FacebookStatus updates, photo sharing, life loggingTrust in machine memoryOur lives measured by facebook timelinesField Trip app, starting to predict need.
- We come to rely on FB, pinterest, etc. as ways of preserving our thoughts, feelings and memories. We trust machine memory more than our own. Extending beyond, this there is a trend towards a system weaving all data together – our memories, the track of our previous actions, in our connected lives - to anticipate consumers' needs before those needs are expressed.At the same time, we still think we know best. For how long will this make sense to assert this? We have yet to put our faith in machine recommendation, to externalise our sense of self-direction. And we shield ourselves from this perceived threat to our own identities with DO NOT TRACK and digital non-participation. The moment this is overcome will be the singularity (greater-than-human superintelligence) – and it is already starting to happen. But there continues to be resistance. And rightly so today.
- We are reluctant to trust the machines. But this is changing with new digital natives. Well illustrated by the fear of theft vs the fear of de-friending – indicating a stronger sense of digital identity among young.Benefits of investing in our digital identities are unproven to the older consumers. At what cost does this luddism come? What impact on their economic prosperity? Remember, internet access adds €500 GDP per capita over last 15 years. What would digital super-intelligence add? What will the singularity be worth economically?
- We trust netflix, but not an advertiserWhat roles for brands?Brands must overcome resistance, by delivering real consumer benefit and without abusing trustHelp us choose the things we wantWhere do we draw the line between need and want? It should be measured and managed.Smart analytics and intelligent targeting, and a sufficient degree of consumer control
- To see just how far we’ve come, but how far we’ve yet to go:Christmas is round the corner: Who would we trust to buy us the best present? A brand? Our partners? Our colleagues at work? A machine? And the quality of the choice is largely based on the quality of the information available.Maybe I can live with the socks, if it means not giving up information I don’t want to share.While our digital intelligence is still in its infancy, we will still need to ask the questions – about our wishes, our intentions – to understand.By bringing survey response together with the customer data, the connected data we have now, we aim to provide a deeper understanding of the consumer across all touchpoints. In this way, on behalf of our clients we start to be able to quantify the real benefit of digital intelligence.Thanks.