K bank daily jan 19

Capital Markets Research
Jan 19, 2011
Thai Stock Market Jan 18 Change US Market Jan 18 Change
SET Index 1024.54 +1.35 Dow Jones 11,837.93 +50.55
Market Turnover (Bt mn) 26,163.00 +90.59 Nasdaq Jan 18 2,662.88 -4.39
Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) -377.69 +1,146.65 S&P 500 Jan 18 1,295.02 +1.78
Thai Bond Market Jan 18 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 3.37 +4 bp
Total Return Index 201.48 +0.18 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.59 +0 bp
Total Market Turnover (Bt mn) NYMEX crude ($/b) 91.38 -0.16
Yield Curve 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yr
Jan 18 (%) 1.95 2.02 2.26 2.56 2.85 3.06 3.20 3.51 3.77 3.90 4.02 4.17
Change (bp) 1 0 1 0 1 2 4 2 1 0 0 2
Interbank Rates Jan 19 Jan 17 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr
Overnight (%) 2.25 2.000-2.210 Jan 18 2.25750 2.27391 2.32500 2.38375 2.47109 2.55000 2.65000
Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6m
Jan 18 2.25000 2.25000 - - Jan 18 0.27110 0.31100 0.46800
THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6m
Jan 18 0.63475 0.75419 0.98083 1.32021 1.54915 1.78458 Jan 18 0.26063 0.30313 0.45469
SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yr
Jan 19 Bid/Ask 1.67/1.70 2.36/2.39 2.89/2.93 3.29/3.32 3.53/3.56 3.88/3.93 4.23/4.28
KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m)
(against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/Import
USD 30.22 30.32 30.57 0.10/2.16
EUR 40.4975 40.6313 41.1513 -2.41/1.13
GBP 48.3000 48.4600 49.0438 -1.49/1.42
JPY 0.3658 0.3670 0.3738 -0.40/3.92
KBank Technical Analysis Jan 19 Jan 18 Support Resistance Trend Strategy
THB (Onshore) 30.46 30.49 30.40 30.55 Sideway Sell USD near resistance
JPY 82.21 82.61 82.00 82.60 Sideway Sell USD near resistance
EUR/USD 1.3427 1.3379 1.3300 1.3500 Sideway Buy EUR near support

Macro and Market Outlook
• Global stocks were lifted on Tuesday, on the back of U.S. corporate earning results and promise
by European finance ministers that they would continue to examine ways to make the financial
aid fund more flexible and effective
• USD/CNY reference rate set at a record low since China let the yuan float in 2010 – market
anticipates stronger yuan and awaits talks between Hu Jintao and Obama
• Thai customs-cleared exports rose by 18.8% yoy in December, showing a deceleration from the
overall growth rate of 20.8% in Q4. Trade balance increased to $1,295mn from $408mn

FX Market Wrap
• EUR/USD rebounded to 1.3466 intraday after positive reports of investors’ confidence with
regards to the Eurozone’s economies. The pair closed lower down to 1.338, about 0.7% higher
• USD/THB closed lower to 30.47 amidst speculations of real flows of foreign capital while the
USD/JPY tested lower to 82.30 but failed to past

Economic News Update
• The fragile world economic recovery faces a heightened risk of a slowdown as developed
economies withdraw their fiscal stimulus measures while the economic fundamentals of the
United States weaken, says the United Nations
Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721)
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1
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

KBank Daily Update Jan 19, 2011

2009’s decline of 14.3%. Annual imports was recorded at
Macro and Market Outlook 36.5%, reflecting a strengthening domestic demand when
ZEW survey of investors confidence in economic growth (6mth forward)
compared to the heavy slump of 25.4% in 2009.
80
60
40
20
US Treasuries and Thai rates
0
-20 Treasuries snapped a two-day loss before a government
-40 report that economists said will show housing starts fell in
-60 December as the industry that triggered the recession
-80
struggles to recover.
05 06 07 08 09 10 11

eurozone Germany The Federal Reserve plans to purchase $6 billion to $8
billion of notes due from July 2013 to December 2014
Global stocks were lifted on Tuesday, partly on the back of
today as part of its plan to spur the economy. Housing
U.S. corporate earning results and promise by European
starts dropped 0.9 percent to a 550,000 annual rate,
finance ministers that they would continue to examine ways
according to the median estimate of economists surveyed
to make the financial aid fund more flexible and effective in
by Bloomberg News before the Commerce Department
containing debt problems. Europe – ZEW survey of
report.
investors’ confidence showed a third month of consecutive
increases in January. Germany’s reading for current The 10-year note yielded 3.38 percent as of 9:55 a.m. in
economic situation rose from 82.6 to 82.8 while economic Tokyo, according to data compiled by Bloomberg
sentiment rose from 4.3 to 15.4. Eurozone’s economic (Source: Bloomberg)
sentiment also gained from 15.5 to 25.4.
S&P Index (% )
USD/CNY Spot and Non-deliverable forwards
6.9 1350 4.5
1300
6.8 4.0
1250
6.7 3.5
1200
6.6 1150 3.0
6.5 1100
2.5
6.4 1050
1000 2.0
6.3
Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11
Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11
S&P Index 10yr Treasury yield
CNY NDF 6m CNY NDF 12m USD/CNY

The market continues to watch out for signals in foreign
currency trading after today’s meeting between Hu Jintao Thai interest rate: Local rates edged up slightly. Bond
and Barack Obama. This morning, the USD/CNY reference yields rose 1-2 bp while IRS yields were also partly lifted
rate is set at a record low since China let the yuan float after longer tenor swap points picked up.
again in 2010. It is announced at 6.5885 this morning while
For the shorter IRS tenors, rates continued to be affect by
the figure below also shows that the market is pricing the
the anomalies in the FX swap market. Nevertheless, the
future value of the yuan stronger – volatilities show more
market is expecting this condition to improve in February,
activities and differences of view.
as large amount of Korean bond funds come due, bringing
back USD liquidity.
Thai customs-cleared exports rose by 18.8% yoy in
December, showing a deceleration from the overall growth Satangs USD/THB Swap point curve
rate of 20.8% in Q4. This was primarily due to a 15
substantially high base in the year 2009 as well as the slow 13
down in the pace of economic recovery of trading partners’ 11
economies. Imports also decelerated to a growth of 11.5% 9
yoy. Trade balance in December increased to $1,295mn 7
from $408mn in November. 5
% yoy 3
80 4000 1
60 3000 -1
O/N T/N 1Wk 2Wk 1M 2M 3M 6M
40 2000
18/01/2011 1-day ago 1-m ago
20 1000
0 0
-20 -1000
-40 -2000
-60 -3000
Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10

Trade balance ($ mn, right axis) Export, % yoy Import, % yoy

2010 vs. 2010 – Annual exports growth was recorded at
28.1%, indicating a full recovery of Thailand’s exports after

2


FX Wrap Currency Movement
Tue 18-Jan-11 Mon 17-Jan-11 % Change
1.42
1.40 USD/THB 30.47 30.54 -0.23
1.38 USD/JPY 82.59 82.72 -0.16
1.36 EUR/USD 1.338 1.329 +0.69
1.34 GBP/USD 1.5959 1.5889 +0.44
1.32 USD/CHF 0.9638 0.9645 -0.07
1.30 USD/SGD 1.2825 1.2875 -0.39
1.28 USD/TWD 28.96 29.04 -0.26
Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11
USD/KRW 1,112.0 1,115.0 -0.27
EUR/USD
USD/PHP 44.50 44.35 +0.34
EUR/USD rebounded to as high as 1.3466 intraday after USD/IDR 9,049 9,055 -0.07
positive reports of investors’ confidence with regards to the USD/MYR 3.056 3.057 -0.03
Eurozone’s economies. The pair closed lower down to
1.338, about 0.7% higher than the previous close. USD/CNY 6.583 6.593 -0.15
Source: Reuters
Meanwhile, the pound also gained as higher inflation
.FX Consensus Forecast
stoked concerns but also expectations of sooner than
expected interest rate hike by the Bank of England, Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011
pushing the dollar lower against European currencies.
USD/JPY tested yesterday but failed to past 82.30. We USD/THB 30.47 28.30 28.00
expect range trade to continue for some time. USD/JPY 82.30 85.50 88.50
EUR/USD 1.34 1.30 1.30
37.50 80 GBP/USD 1.60 1.55 1.54
37.00 81 USD/CNY 6.59 6.47 6.30
36.50 82 USD/SGD 1.28 1.27 1.25
36.00 83 USD/IDR 9,043 8,860 8,825

35.50 84 USD/MYR 3.06 3.03 2.97

35.00 85
USD/PHP 44.38 43.00 42.00
1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan USD/KRW 1,113 1,093 1,050
JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/TWD 29.02 29.40 28.70
AUD/USD 1.00 0.99 0.96
NZD/USD 0.77 0.77 0.75
USD/THB closed lower to 30.47 amidst speculations of Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB
real flows of foreign capital. The baht saw some
Currency Pair Targets
strengthening in the afternoon yesterday, coinciding with
the Customs Department December trade report but its Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011
was probably due to some flows as trade balance reports USD/THB 30.47 28.30 28.0
were not key triggers in USD/THB movement during the
EUR/THB 40.93 40.0 37.0
past few months.
JPY/THB 37.03 34.70 29.5
30.80 GBP/THB 48.76 47.40 43.7
30.60 CNY/THB 4.63 4.78 4.2
30.40 AUD/THB 30.54 27.4 26.0
30.20 CHF/THB 31.71 29.6 27.7
Source: KBank, Bloomberg
30.00

29.80 KBank NEER Index
29.60 Current 99.10
1-Oct 13-Oct 25-Oct 6-Nov 18-Nov 30-Nov 12-Dec 24-Dec 5-Jan 17-Jan
YTD + 6.42%
USD/THB
vs 52 weeks ago + 6.04%
Continue to watch for Asian currencies movements for vs 1mth ago - 2.71%
near-term direction of the USD/THB. The Singapore dollar vs 1 week ago - 1.04%
rose to its strongest level yesterday is continuing to test
stronger this morning. USD/SGD closed lowest at 1.2825 vs 1 day ago - 0.35%
back in early November and end December last year. vs long term average + 11.44%
Meanwhile, the USD/TWD continues to test lower as well, Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange
rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade
possibly led by the expectations in yuan’s appreciation. competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation

3


Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BOT Bonds Jan 18
Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid-
Tenor Amt. Accepted
LB113A 2.07 2.07 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.09 2.09 2.09 1.85 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage
(yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%)
ratio
LB116A 2.71 2.60 2.50 2.39 2.28 2.17 2.06 1.95 1.59
CB11217C 0.08 25,000 1.980/2.010 1.991370 2.47
LB11NA 3.61 3.33 3.05 2.77 2.49 2.20 1.92 1.64 1.11
CB11421B 0.25 22,000 2.050/2.095 2.077060 2.06
LB123A 4.23 3.84 3.46 3.07 2.69 2.30 1.92 1.53 0.90
CB11721A 0.50 15,000 2.250/2.308 2.285460 2.65
LB12NA 5.35 4.72 4.10 3.47 2.85 2.22 1.59 0.97 0.09
Source: ThaiBMA
LB133A 5.95 5.20 4.44 3.69 2.94 2.18 1.43 0.67 -0.33
LB137A 6.53 5.65 4.77 3.90 3.02 2.14 1.26 0.39 -0.74 Auction Calendar of Government Bonds
LB13OA 6.97 6.00 5.03 4.05 3.08 2.11 1.14 0.16 -1.06 Tenor Amt.
Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark
LB143A 7.28 6.24 5.20 4.16 3.13 2.09 1.05 0.01 -1.28 (yrs) (Bt mn)
LB145A 7.77 6.60 5.44 4.28 3.12 1.95 0.79 -0.37 -1.78 LB17OA 7.09 10,000 19-Jan-11 10-Oct-17 -
LB145B 7.76 6.60 5.44 4.28 3.12 1.95 0.79 -0.37 -1.78 LB14NA 4.00 8,000 19-Jan-11 26-Nov-14 -
LB14DA 8.61 7.26 5.91 4.56 3.22 1.87 0.52 -0.83 -2.43 LB21DA 11.08 7,000 26-Jan-11 17-Dec-21 -
LB155A 9.35 7.81 6.28 4.74 3.21 1.67 0.13 -1.40 -3.19 Source: ThaiBMA
LB157A 9.21 7.71 6.22 4.72 3.22 1.72 0.23 -1.27 -3.02
Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds
LB15DA 10.20 8.46 6.71 4.97 3.23 1.48 -0.26 -2.00 -3.99
Tenor Amt.
LB167A 10.87 9.00 7.12 5.25 3.38 1.51 -0.37 -2.24 -4.36 Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark
(yrs) (Bt mn)
LB16NA 11.41 9.41 7.41 5.41 3.41 1.40 -0.59 -2.59 -4.84
BOT13NA 3.00 40,000 25-Jan-11 18-Nov-13 -
LB171A 11.49 9.49 7.48 5.47 3.47 1.46 -0.55 -2.55 -4.81
CB11224C 0.08 25,000 25-Jan-11 24-Feb-11 -
LB175A 12.05 9.91 7.77 5.64 3.50 1.37 -0.76 -2.90 -5.28
LB183A 13.15 10.75 8.36 5.97 3.57 1.18 -1.21 -3.61 -6.25 CB11428B 0.25 22,000 25-Jan-11 28-Apr-11 -
LB183B 12.86 10.53 8.21 5.89 3.57 1.25 -1.07 -3.38 -5.95 CB11728A 0.50 15,000 25-Jan-11 28-Jul-11 -
LB191A 13.84 11.28 8.73 6.17 3.61 1.06 -1.50 -4.05 -6.86 Source: ThaiBMA
LB196A 14.78 11.98 9.19 6.39 3.60 0.81 -1.98 -4.77 -7.81
LB198A 14.36 11.69 9.02 6.35 3.68 1.02 -1.65 -4.31 -7.23
LB19DA 14.94 12.14 9.35 6.56 3.76 0.97 -1.82 -4.61 -7.64 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months
during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury
LB213A 16.05 13.00 9.94 6.88 3.83 0.77 -2.28 -5.33 -8.63 cash balance.
LB214A 15.93 12.91 9.89 6.87 3.86 0.84 -2.17 -5.19 -8.45
LB22NA 17.99 14.47 10.95 7.44 3.92 0.41 -3.11 -6.62 -10.38
LB233A 18.07 14.54 11.02 7.50 3.98 0.46 -3.06 -6.58 -10.34
LB236A 19.52 15.64 11.75 7.87 3.99 0.11 -3.76 -7.64 -11.76
LB244A 19.66 15.75 11.84 7.94 4.04 0.14 -3.75 -7.65 -11.79
LB24DA 20.27 16.21 12.16 8.11 4.06 0.02 -4.03 -8.07 -12.36
LB267A 20.82 16.65 12.49 8.32 4.17 0.01 -4.15 -8.30 -12.70
LB283A 22.07 17.60 13.13 8.67 4.21 -0.25 -4.71 -9.16 -13.87
LB296A 23.79 18.90 14.00 9.12 4.23 -0.65 -5.53 -10.41 -15.53
LB383A 28.05 22.10 16.17 10.23 4.31 -1.62 -7.54 -13.45 -19.61
LB396A 29.38 23.11 16.84 10.58 4.33 -1.92 -8.16 -14.40 -20.88
Average 12.94 10.57 8.20 5.83 3.46 1.09 -1.27 -3.64 -6.25
Source: KBank, Bloomberg

KBank Rich – Cheap Model
30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00

-10.00

-20.00

-30.00 3 mth avg
Now
-40.00
LB296A
LB113A

LB116A
LB11NA

LB123A

LB133A
LB137A

LB145B

LB14DA
LB155A

LB15DA

LB167A
LB16NA

LB175A

LB183B
LB191A

LB196A

LB198A
LB19DA

LB213A

LB24DA
LB267A

LB283A

LB396A

Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields

4


Cooperation could also serve as a forum for financial
Economic News Update regulation reform to prevent future meltdowns, he said..
(Source: Bloomberg)
UN pushes for current account goal: The
fragile world economic recovery faces a heightened risk of
a slowdown as developed economies withdraw their fiscal
stimulus measures while the economic fundamentals of the
United States weaken, says the United Nations.

A weakening dollar also is increasing volatility in the world
financial markets, the UN added in its report, "The World
Economic Situation and Prospects".

It proposed reinforcing a framework laid out by the G20
economies in setting targets for trade and service income
surpluses and deficits in large economies.

The US has recovered from its longest and deepest
recession since World War II, but has nonetheless
experienced the slowest pace of recovery in history.

Although output has returned to pre-crisis levels, it will take
four years for a full recovery of employment.

Growth in many European economies will remain low as it
is weighted down by fiscal cuts while some economies slip
into a recession. Japanese growth was expected to
decelerate, the report noted.

Although developing economies will continue to lead global
economic output, their growth is likely to decline to 6% from
2011-12, following 7% in 2010, the report projected.

It expects the world economy to grow 3.1% this year,
slowing from 3.6% in 2010, before picking up to 3.5% in
2012.

Nagesh Kumar, the chief economist with the United
Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia-Pacific
(Escap), said the global imbalance widened in 2010, driven
by US and European policies to pump money into their
economies causing their currencies to depreciate.

"Unless the global imbalance is addressed, the risk of a
new crisis to the world economy remains. But we should
not focus too much on foreign exchange, meaning
pressuring China to revalue the yuan, which is pegged to
the dollar," said Dr Kumar.

The world economy runs the risk of weakening demand if
the US continues to pursue a weak dollar policy, which
hurts its consumer power but may increase exports, he
said.

"The US has been facing a pertinent current account deficit
while China accumulates a surplus. We should bring them
to a certain central rate, say minus or plus 3% of gross
domestic product. This structural adjustment would help the
global economy on a sustainable growth path," he said.

Having a current account target in place would also serve Market Strategists:
as a first step toward reforming the global reserve system,
which now largely uses the greenback to protect its assets. Nalin Chutchotitham
Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
Tel: 02-470-3235

5


Economic Calendar
Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised

01/18/2011 04:00 SK Department Store Sales YoY DEC -- 11.60% 10.10% --
01/18/2011 04:00 SK Discount Store Sales YoY DEC -- 2.90% 1.70% --
01/18/2011 07:01 UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence DEC 44 53 45 --
01/18/2011 07:01 UK RICS House Price Balance DEC -44% -39% -44% --
01/18/2011 09:00 CH Actual FDI (YoY) DEC 11.20% 15.60% 38.20% --
01/18/2011 11:30 JN Industrial Production (MoM) NOV F -- 1.00% 1.00% --

01/18/2011 11:30 JN Industrial Production YOY% NOV F -- 5.80% 5.80% --
01/18/2011 11:30 JN Capacity Utilization (MoM) NOV F -- 1.60% -2.30% --
01/18/2011 12:30 JN Nationwide Dept. Sales (YoY) DEC -- -1.50% -0.50% --
01/18/2011 12:30 JN Tokyo Dept. Store Sales (YoY) DEC -- -0.30% 0.30% --
01/18/2011 13:00 JN Machine Tool Orders (YoY) DEC F -- 64.00% 63.50% --
01/18/2011 15:30 HK Unemployment Rate SA DEC 4.00% 4.00% 4.10% --
01/18/2011 15:30 TH Customs Exports (YoY) DEC 16.30% 18.80% 28.50% --
01/18/2011 15:30 TH Customs Imports (YoY) DEC 10.30% 11.50% 35.30% --
01/18/2011 15:30 TH Customs Trade Balance DEC $800M $1295M $408M --
01/18/2011 16:16 TH Total Car Sales DEC -- 93122 78874 --
01/18/2011 16:30 UK CPI (MoM) DEC 0.70% 1.00% 0.40% --
01/18/2011 16:30 UK CPI (YoY) DEC 3.40% 3.70% 3.30% --
01/18/2011 16:30 UK Core CPI YOY DEC 2.70% 2.90% 2.70% --
01/18/2011 16:30 UK Retail Price Index DEC 228.4 228.4 226.8 --
01/18/2011 16:30 UK RPI (MoM) DEC 0.70% 0.70% 0.40% --
01/18/2011 16:30 UK RPI (YoY) DEC 4.80% 4.80% 4.70% --
01/18/2011 16:30 UK RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) DEC 4.80% 4.70% 4.70% --
01/18/2011 16:38 UK DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) NOV -- 4.00% 5.50% --
01/18/2011 17:00 GE Zew Survey (Current Situation) JAN 83.7 82.8 82.6 --
01/18/2011 17:00 EC ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) JAN 16.6 25.4 15.5 --
01/18/2011 17:00 GE ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) JAN 7 15.4 4.3 --
01/18/2011 17:00 IT Current Account (mlns euro) NOV -- -5007M -2580M --
01/18/2011 20:30 US Empire Manufacturing JAN 12.5 11.92 10.57 9.89
01/18/2011 21:00 CA Bank of Canada Rate Jan-18 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% --
01/18/2011 21:00 US Total Net TIC Flows NOV -- $39.0B $7.5B $15.1B
01/18/2011 21:00 US Net Long-term TIC Flows NOV $40.0B $85.1B $27.6B $28.9B
01/18/2011 22:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index JAN 17 16 16 --
01/19/2011 05:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence Jan-16 -40 -43 -40 --
01/19/2011 06:00 VN Vietnam Consumer Confidence DEC -- 146.8 131.2 --
01/19/2011 06:30 AU Westpac Consumer Confidence s.a. (MoM) JAN -- -5.70% 0.20% 0.30%
01/19/2011 06:30 AU Westpac Consumer Confidence Index JAN -- 104.6 111 --
01/19/2011 06:50 JN Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) NOV 0.50% 0.60% 0.50% 0.30%
01/19/2011 07:00 AU DEWR Skilled Vacancies MoM JAN -- -4.60% -1.00% -4.00%
01/19/2011 11:00 JN Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) DEC -- -- 0.80% --
01/19/2011 16:00 EC Euro-Zone Current Account nsa NOV -- -- -2.3B --
Source: Bloomberg

6

K bank daily jan 19

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