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Capital Markets Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Mar 7, 2011
Thai Stock Market                                                            US Market
                                                                         Mar 04                   Change               Mar 04            Change
SET Index                                                                995.91
                                                                             Dow Jones               +5.83          12,169.88                 -88.32
Market Turnover (Bt mn)                                               25,471.87
                                                                             Nasdaq                -376.37           2,784.67                 -14.07
Foreign Net Position (Bt mn)                                            -201.04
                                                                             S&P 500             +1,519.86           1,321.15                   -9.82
Thai Bond Market                                                         Mar 04
                                                                             US 10 yr T-note (%)  Change                  3.50                  -7 bp
Total Return Index                                                       200.64
                                                                             US 2yr T-note (%)       +0.04                0.69                  -8 bp
                                                                             NYMEX crude ($/b)                         103.67                  +1.75
Yield curve             1m        3m         6m       1yr          2yr         3yr       5yr         7yr       10yr       12yr       14yr        18yr
Mar 04 (%)             2.10      2.34      2.57      2.76         3.13        3.35      3.47        3.69       3.91       4.07       4.14        4.21
Chng 1D (bp)             +0        +1         +1       +0           -1          +0        +0          +0         +1         +0         -1          -1
Chng 5D (bp)             +0        +5         +8       +8           +1          -1         -1         +0         +2         +1         -1          -1
Interbank Rates         Mar 07       Mar 03             BIBOR            1w          1m           2m         3m        6m          9m         1yr
Overnight (%)             2.25    1.750-2.210           Mar 04        2.33750      2.46500 2.53250 2.60750 2.71000 2.76375 2.84750
Repurchase Rates         1-day          7-day           14-day             1m             SIBOR           1m               3m              6m
Mar 04                  2.25000        2.25000             -                -             Mar 04        0.27200         0.31450          0.47110
THBFIX (Ref.)       1m         2m        3m         6m         9m          1yr            LIBOR           1m               3m              6m
Mar 04            1.95335    2.10539 2.24230 2.47316 2.68454             2.87914          Mar 04        0.26000         0.30950          0.46250
SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore)                 1yr             2yr              3yr              4yr              5yr              7yr             10yr
Mar 07       Bid/Ask                2.70/2.74       3.08/3.12        3.39/3.43       3.65/3.69         3.85/3.89       4.15/4.19        4.36/4.40
KBank Counter Rates                              Buying                               Selling                   Premium/Discount (stgs/m)
(against THB)                       Sight Bill               T/T                         T/T                              Export/Import
USD                                   30.23                 30.33                      30.58                                 1.70/8.10
EUR                                  42.1950              42.3338                     42.8675                                0.94/6.82
GBP                                  49.0825              49.2450                     49.8350                                2.61/8.01
JPY                                  0.3654                0.3665                      0.3733                                2.09/8.56
KBank Technical Analysis                  Mar 07          Mar 04           Support        Resistance          Trend                Strategy
THB (Onshore)                              30.45            30.46            30.40            30.50          Sideway       Sell USD near resistance
JPY                                         82.3            82.26            82.00            82.60          Sideway       Sell USD near resistance
EUR/USD                                   1.3977           1.3982           1.3950           1.4100          Sideway        Buy EUR near support



                                                                                      Macro and Market Outlook
                   •    Crude oil price weakened stock market sentiments as Libya’s protests intensify
                   •    U.S. non-farm payrolls at 192K in February while unemployment rate fell to 8.9%
                   •    Eurozone summit on March 11 while leaders continue to debate over easing credit conditions
                        for Ireland and Greece. Fitch put Spain’s credit rating on negative watch


                                                                                                      FX Market Wrap
                    •   EUR/USD tested 1.40 intraday on Friday, its highest since early November last year. This was
                        despite the positive gains in the U.S. non-farm payrolls. The market is still betting on ECB’s
                        raising of interest rate and further clarity in EU’s solution to debt problems this week
                    •   USD/THB decline to 30.45, in line with most Asian currencies on the back of the dollar’s
                        weakness. This week, we expect the USD/THB to range between 30.35 and 30.70


                                                                                          Economic News Update
                   •    Premier Wen Jiabao’s pledge to stem inflation in China underscored forecasts for more interest-
                        rate increases as a jump in food and housing prices risks sparking public anger.


                   Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721)
                   via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours


                                www.twitter.com/KBankFX                                     www.facebook.com/KBankFX




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Mar 7, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                      th
                                                                                                                                 The eurozone Summit would be held on March 11 and
                  Macro and Market Outlook                                                                                       leaders are looking to confirm the extension of powers to
    U.S. stocks ended the week little changed, following                                                                         the EFSF (financial aid fund) to issue bonds and give loans
    declines on Friday amid the unrests in Libya and other                                                                       to troubled economies. Germany has yet to show new
    neighboring countries. At the same time, higher oil prices                                                                   comments, while the market speculates it is waiting to hear
    had also overshadowed positive economic data.                                                                                about other countries’ commitment before pledging more
     $/ounce                                                                                          $/barrel                   loans for weaker nations. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings put a
       1600
                                                                                                                                 negative watch on Spain’s AA+ credit rating on Friday,
                                                                                                          160
                                                                                                                                 citing weakness in the restructuring of banks and longer-
                                                                                                          140
       1400                                                                                                                      term weakness in fiscal health, although it praised Spain
                                                                                                          120
       1200                                                                                                                      for changes in its pension system.
                                                                                                          100
       1000                                                                                               80
                                                                                                          60
         800
                                                                                                          40                               US Treasuries and Thai rates
         600                                                                                            20
           Sep-08            Mar-09           Sep-09            Mar-10           Sep-10            Mar-11
                                                                                                                                 Treasuries held last week’s loss before a government
                                                                                                                                 report that economists said will show retail sales rose in
                                 Gold prices (LHS)                  WTI oil price (RHS)
                                                                                                                                 February, and as the U.S. prepared to sell 3-, 10- and 30-
                                                                                                                                 year debt. The difference between yields on 10-year notes
    Violence and protests continue in Libya, threatening a civil                                                                 and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, a gauge of
    war. Financial markets in Asia this morning has begun to                                                                     trader expectations for consumer prices, was 2.51
    show responses with stocks down and U.S. crude oil price                                                                     percentage points, about two basis points away from a 32-
    climbing to $105/barrel. Meanwhile, gold price increased                                                                     month high.
    from Friday’s close to $1,436/ounce this morning as well.
                                                                                                                                 Ten-year notes yielded 3.50 percent as of 9:40 a.m. in
    Economic data update –                                                                                                       Tokyo,    according   to   BGCantor    Market    Data.
                                                                                                                                 (Source: Bloomberg)
    U.S. non-farm payrolls in February was close to market’s
    forecast of 200,000 job gains, coming in at 192K. Private                                                                     S&P Index                                                                                              (% )
    payrolls added 222K jobs while the government is still                                                                        1400                                                                                                    4.0
    cutting jobs. At the same time, unemployment rate fell to                                                                     1300
    8.9% from 9.0% in January. While this number was                                                                                                                                                                                      3.5

    positive, it would have to continue in such strong gains                                                                      1200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          3.0
    over the next few months in order to allow the market to                                                                      1100
    firmly believe in the U.S. recovery.                                                                                                                                                                                                  2.5
                                                                                                                                  1000
     '000                                     US Non-farm payrolls                                        %
         600                                                                                              11                        900                                                                                                2.0
         400                                                                                                                          Mar-10                  Jun-10                 Sep-10                 Dec-10                Mar-11
                                                                                                          10
         200                                                                                              9                                                      S&P Index                    10yr Treasury yield
           0
                                                                                                          8
        -200
        -400
                                                                                                          7                      Thai interest rate: The local rates markets were relatively
        -600                                                                                              6                      quiet on Friday but bond market saw some buying into the
        -800                                                                                              5                      mid-curve bonds still. FX swap market was less active oon
       -1000                                                                                              4                      Friday as well but swap points remained near their recent
            Jan-08          Jul-08       Jan-09        Jul-09        Jan-10        Jul-10        Jan-11                          highs as the market awaits MPC’s decision this
                                  increase in Non-farm payrolls          Unemployment rate                                       Wednesday afternoon.
                                                                                                                                 We expect the BoT to raise policy rate by 25bp during each
    U.S. factory orders for the month of January increased by                                                                    of the next 4 meetings, bringing to policy rate to 3.25% in
    3.1% mom, the quickest pace of gain since 2006. This was                                                                     July before pausing. At the moment, we still do not see the
    more than the previous month and the market’s                                                                                necessity of raising policy rate by 50bp but the risk of Bot
    expectation, boding well for manufacturing sectors and                                                                       doing so is not small, given the acceleration of global
    ongoing employment.                                                                                                          energy and food prices.

    Indonesia’s central bank held its policy rate unchanged at
                                                                                                                                      %                         Government bond yield curve had bear-flattened
    6.75% on Friday amid growing uncertainties in the global
                                                                                                                                     4.0
    economy. Inflation rate had recently climbed down by a                                                                           3.8
    slight margin and the central bank would likely continue                                                                         3.6
    rate hikes in the future. At the same time, Philippines’                                                                         3.4
    inflation rate in February also rose higher from 3.6% to                                                                         3.2
    4.3% (consensus 3.7%), signaling that the central bank                                                                           3.0
    would be forced to raise policy rate from 4.00% soon.                                                                            2.8
                                                                                                                                     2.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  TTM
    Economic data update – In Europe, policymakers                                                                                   2.4
    continue their debate over debt problems while Ireland and                                                                                 1y       2y       3y        4y       5y        6y       7y       8y       9y       10y
    EU’s Commissioner appealed leaders to allow for less strict                                                                                                       04-Mar-11                         31-Jan-11
    credit conditions for money loaned to Greece and Ireland.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Mar 7, 2011

                                             FX Wrap                                                                                                                    Currency Movement
                                                                                                                                                                  Fri 04-Mar-11              Thu 03-Mar-11                  % Change
       44                                                                                                31.3
                                                                                                         31.1                            USD/THB                      30.45                       30.47                        -0.07
       43                                                                                                30.9                            USD/JPY                      82.29                       82.39                        -0.12
                                                                                                         30.7
       42
                                                                                                         30.5                           EUR/USD                       1.399                       1.396                       +0.21

       41
                                                                                                         30.3                           GBP/USD                      1.6272                      1.6272                        +0.0
                                                                                                         30.1
                                                                                                                                         USD/CHF                     0.9255                      0.9316                        -0.65
       40                                                                                                29.9
                                                                                                         29.7                           USD/SGD                      1.2671                      1.2678                        -0.06
       39                                                                                                29.5                           USD/TWD                       29.38                       29.47                        -0.30
         1-Oct             1-Nov            1-Dec              1-Jan            1-Feb           1-Mar
                                                                                                                                        USD/KRW                      1,117.5                    1,113.40                      +0.37
                                EUR/THB (LHS)                  USD/THB onshore (RHS)
                                                                                                                                         USD/PHP                      43.28                       43.33                        -0.12
                                                                                                                                         USD/IDR                      9,040                       8,803                       +2.69
    EUR/USD tested 1.40 intraday on Friday, its highest since
    early November last year. This was despite the positive                                                                             USD/MYR                       3.028                       3.030                        -0.07
    gains in the U.S. non-farm payrolls. The market is still                                                                            USD/CNY                       6.567                       6.572                        -0.07
    betting on ECB’s raising of interest rate and further clarity                                                                  Source: Reuters
    in EU’s solution to debt problems this week.                                                                                                                     .FX Consensus Forecast

    The dollar index (weighted measure of the U.S. dollar                                                                                                                      Spot                  Jun 2011                Dec 2011
    against 6 other major currencies), declined to near its 4-
                                                                                                                                             USD/THB                          30.46                    30.00                   29.00
    month low on Friday, indicating substantial weakness for
    the near term.                                                                                                                           USD/JPY                          82.36                    85.00                   89.00
                                                                                                                                             EUR/USD                           1.40                     1.34                    1.35
       38.50                                                                                               80
                                                                                                                                             GBP/USD                           1.62                     1.60                    1.62
       38.00                                                                                               81
       37.50                                                                                                                                 USD/CNY                           6.57                     6.47                    6.30
                                                                                                           82
       37.00
                                                                                                                                             USD/SGD                           1.27                     1.26                    1.23
                                                                                                           83                                USD/IDR                          8,787                    8,900                   8,795
       36.50

       36.00                                                                                               84                               USD/MYR                            3.03                     3.02                    2.96
                                                                                                                                             USD/PHP                          43.38                    42.90                   42.00
       35.50                                                                                               85
               1-Jan             16-Jan              31-Jan                15-Feb             2-Mar                                         USD/KRW                           1,117                    1,092                   1,050
                                 JPY/THB (LHS)                  USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis)                                                USD/TWD                           29.41                    28.80                   28.25
    USD/THB decline to 30.45, in line with most Asian                                                                                        AUD/USD                           1.01                     1.00                    0.98
    currencies on the back of the dollar’s weakness. This                                                                                    NZD/USD                           0.74                     0.76                    0.75
    week, we expect the USD/THB to range between 30.35                                                                             Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB
    and 30.70
                                                                                                                                                                       Currency Pair Targets
                                                                                                                                                                               Spot              Jun 2011                    Dec 2011
        31.20
        31.00                                                                                                                                USD/THB                           0.37                     0.35                    0.33
        30.80                                                                                                                                EUR/THB                          42.56                    40.20                   39.15
        30.60
        30.40                                                                                                                                JPY/THB                          49.49                    48.00                   46.98
        30.20                                                                                                                                GBP/THB                           4.64                     4.64                    4.60
        30.00
                                                                                                                                             CNY/THB                          30.87                    30.00                   28.42
        29.80
        29.60                                                                                                                                AUD/THB                          22.47                    22.80                   21.75
             1-Dec         16-Dec         31-Dec      15-Jan           30-Jan       14-Feb       1-Mar
                                                                                                                                             CHF/THB                          24.05                    23.81                   23.58
                                                       USD/THB                                                                     Source: KBank, Bloomberg

                                                                                                                                 KBank NEER Index
                                                                                                                                 Current                                                                         98.32
                                                                                                                                 YTD                                                                           + 5.58%
                                                                                                                                 vs 52 weeks ago                                                               + 3.09%
                                                                                                                                 vs 1mth ago                                                                   + 0.10%
                                                                                                                                 vs 1 week ago                                                                 - 0.01%
                                                                                                                                 vs 1 day ago                                                                  + 0.00%
                                                                                                                                 vs long term average                                                         + 10.48%
                                                                                                                                 Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange
                                                                                                                                 rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade
                                                                                                                                 competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Mar 7, 2011

         Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized                                                                                                         Auction results of BoT bonds                                                                                        Mar 04
    Yield shift (bps)         -40       -30           -20          -10             0               +10         +20             +30          +40                                                                                                                                         Bid-
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Tenor              Amt.                      Accepted
         LB116A               2.63      2.58          2.52         2.46          2.40              2.34        2.29            2.23         1.92                     Symbol                                                                                            Avg. Yield (%) coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                                        (yrs)            (Bt mn)                    Range (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ratio
          LB11NA              3.57      3.34          3.11         2.88          2.65              2.42        2.19            1.96         1.47
                                                                                                                                                                     CB11322A                          0.04              95,000                     2.063/2.080          2.072720       1.23
           LB123A             4.17      3.83          3.49         3.15          2.80              2.46        2.12            1.78         1.18
                                                                                                                                                                     Source: ThaiBMA
          LB12NA              5.28      4.71          4.13         3.56          2.98              2.41        1.83            1.26         0.43
                                                                                                                                                                     Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds
           LB133A             6.07      5.35          4.63         3.91          3.20              2.48        1.76            1.04         0.08
           LB137A             6.57      5.75          4.92         4.10          3.27              2.45        1.62            0.80        -0.28                                                       Tenor              Amt.
                                                                                                                                                                     Symbol                                                                    Auction Date            Maturity Date Remark
                                                                                                                                                                                                        (yrs)            (Bt mn)
          LB13OA              6.99      6.07          5.15         4.23          3.31              2.39        1.47            0.55        -0.62
           LB143A             7.50      6.48          5.45         4.43          3.40              2.38        1.35            0.33        -0.94                     CB11407C                          0.08              25,000                     08-Mar-11            07-Apr-11       -
           LB145A             7.86      6.75          5.64         4.53          3.42              2.31        1.20            0.09        -1.27                     CB11609B                          0.25              20,000                     08-Mar-11            09-Jun-11       -
           LB145B             7.85      6.74          5.63         4.52          3.41              2.30        1.20            0.09        -1.27                     CB11908A                          0.50              12,000                     08-Mar-11            08-Sep-11       -
          LB14DA              8.68      7.39          6.09         4.80          3.50              2.21        0.91            -0.38 -1.93                           Source: ThaiBMA
           LB155A             9.44      7.96          6.47         4.99          3.51              2.03        0.54            -0.94 -2.67                           Auction Calendar of Government Bonds
           LB157A             9.30      7.85          6.41         4.96          3.52              2.08        0.63            -0.81 -2.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Tenor              Amt.
          LB15DA              10.23 8.54              6.85         5.16          3.47              1.78        0.09            -1.59 -3.53                           Symbol                                                                    Auction Date            Maturity Date Remark
                                                                                                                                                                                                        (yrs)            (Bt mn)
           LB167A             10.87 9.05              7.24         5.42          3.60              1.79       -0.03 -1.84 -3.91                                      LB316A                            20.62             6,000                      16-Mar-11            20-Jun-31       -
          LB16NA              11.42 9.48              7.53         5.58          3.64              1.69       -0.25 -2.20 -4.39                                                                                                                                                          -
                                                                                                                                                                     LB14NA                            4.00              8,000                      16-Mar-11            26-Nov-14
           LB171A             11.49 9.54              7.58         5.63          3.68              1.73       -0.22 -2.17 -4.37
                                                                                                                                                                     LB17OA                            7.09              10,000                     30-Mar-11            10-Oct-17       -
           LB175A             12.00 9.92              7.84         5.76          3.69              1.61       -0.47 -2.55 -4.88
                                                                                                                                                                     Source: ThaiBMA
           LB183A             13.29 10.90 8.51                     6.12          3.74              1.35       -1.03 -3.42 -6.05
           LB183B             13.02 10.70 8.38                     6.06          3.74              1.42       -0.90 -3.22 -5.78
           LB191A             13.79 11.29 8.79                     6.28          3.78              1.28       -1.22 -3.71 -6.46
           LB196A             14.70 11.96 9.22                     6.48          3.75              1.01       -1.72 -4.46 -7.44
           LB198A             14.53 11.86 9.18                     6.50          3.83              1.15       -1.52 -4.19 -7.11
          LB19DA              14.83 12.09 9.36                     6.62          3.88              1.15       -1.59 -4.32 -7.30
           LB213A             15.96 12.96 9.96                     6.96          3.96              0.97       -2.03 -5.02 -8.26
           LB214A             15.84 12.88 9.92                     6.96          4.01              1.05       -1.90 -4.86 -8.06
          LB22NA              17.91 14.45 10.99 7.54                             4.08              0.63       -2.82 -6.27 -9.97
           LB233A             18.31 14.76 11.22 7.67                             4.13              0.59       -2.95 -6.49 -10.28
           LB236A             19.43 15.61 11.79 7.97                             4.15              0.34       -3.48 -7.29 -11.35
           LB244A             19.54 15.70 11.86 8.02                             4.18              0.35       -3.49 -7.32 -11.40
          LB24DA              20.14 16.15 12.16 8.18                             4.19              0.21       -3.77 -7.75 -11.98
           LB267A             20.65 16.55 12.45 8.35                             4.25              0.15       -3.94 -8.03 -12.37
           LB283A             22.32 17.80 13.28 8.77                             4.26          -0.25 -4.76 -9.26 -14.01
           LB296A             23.60 18.76 13.93 9.09                             4.27          -0.56 -5.38 -10.20 -15.27
           LB383A             28.37 22.35 16.35 10.35 4.35                                     -1.64 -7.63 -13.61 -19.84
           LB396A             29.15 22.94 16.75 10.56 4.37                                     -1.81 -7.99 -14.15 -20.57
          Average             13.26 10.86 8.47                     6.07          3.68              1.28       -1.11 -3.50 -6.14
    Source: KBank, Bloomberg



            KBank Rich – Cheap Model
                                   40.00

                                   30.00

                                   20.00

                                   10.00

                                     0.00

                                  -10.00

                                  -20.00

                                  -30.00                                                                                                                                                                                                            3 mth avg
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Now
                                  -40.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     LB296A
                                             LB113A

                                                      LB116A
                                                               LB11NA

                                                                        LB123A

                                                                                 LB133A
                                                                                          LB137A

                                                                                                    LB145B

                                                                                                             LB14DA
                                                                                                                      LB155A

                                                                                                                               LB15DA

                                                                                                                                        LB167A
                                                                                                                                                 LB16NA

                                                                                                                                                          LB175A

                                                                                                                                                                   LB183B
                                                                                                                                                                            LB191A

                                                                                                                                                                                     LB196A

                                                                                                                                                                                              LB198A
                                                                                                                                                                                                       LB19DA

                                                                                                                                                                                                                LB213A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         LB24DA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  LB267A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           LB283A


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              LB396A




            Source: Bloomberg, KBank                                                                                      The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Mar 7, 2011

                      Economic News Update
    Inflation Endangering China ‘Dream’
    Spurs Wen Price Pledge: Premier Wen Jiabao’s
    pledge to stem inflation in China underscored forecasts for
    more interest-rate increases as a jump in food and housing
    prices risks sparking public anger.

    Wen, in his opening speech to the annual National
    People’s Congress conclave in Beijing two days ago, said
    that reining in consumer and property prices is the nation’s
    top priority. That will be welcome to fruit vendor Song
    Zhiqiang, 56, of the southwestern city of Guiyang, who
    says: “My rent’s doubled in a year and my family’s food
    budget has increased to 3,000 yuan,” or $456, from 1,200
    yuan.

    Policy makers’ 4 percent inflation target for this year was
    exceeded by almost a percentage point in February,
    according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News
    survey. Without higher deposit rates to encourage saving,
    and a stronger currency to ease import costs, the risk is
    that price pressures will keep escalating in coming months.

    For their part, investors have signaled diminished concern
    that Wen’s government will tighten monetary policy so fast
    that it will hobble growth in the world’s fastest-expanding
    major economy. The benchmark Shanghai Composite
    Index of stocks has climbed in five of the past six weeks,
    closing on March 4 at the highest level since mid-
    November.

    Additional increases in benchmark interest rates and
    banks’ reserve requirements may help to bring price
    pressures under control, Maguire said. Nomura Holdings
    Inc. forecasts 0.75 percentage point of interest-rate
    increases by year-end, along with gains in banks’ reserve
    ratios.

    Wen didn’t set any lending target for banks. New loans
    topped a 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) ceiling last year and
    the central bank said Feb. 17 that it will develop a wider
    measure of credit growth and liquidity, including off-balance
    sheet lending, local and foreign-currency loans, and bond
    and stock sales.

    “Exorbitant” house price increases in some cities are a top
    public concern, Wen told the thousands of lawmakers
    gathered in Beijing, adding that the government will curb
    speculation and “adjust and improve” real-estate tax
    policies. The budget for this year shows a 35 percent
    increase in spending on low-income housing.

    At the congress, official reports confirmed targets of 4
    percent inflation and 8 percent economic growth for this
    year and showed that the nation will spend more on the
    internal police force than the armed forces.
    In his speech, Wen said that keeping prices stable is the
    “top priority in macroeconomic control” for this year and the                                                                                           Market Strategists:
    government aims to narrow the widening gap between rich
    and poor “as soon as possible.” (Source: Bloomberg)                                                                                                     Nalin Chutchotitham
                                                                                                                                                            Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
                                                                                                                                                            Tel: 02-470-3235




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Mar 7, 2011

                                                                                                       Economic Calendar
          Date / Time                   Country                                       Event                                      Period            Consensus                  Actual                  Prior                 Revised

       03/04/2011 08:00                      PH             Consumer Price Index (YoY)                                             FEB                  3.70%                  4.30%                  3.50%                    3.60%
       03/04/2011 08:00                      PH             Consumer Price Index NSA (MoM)                                         FEB                  0.60%                  1.10%                  0.80%                      --
       03/04/2011 10:02                      ID             Money Supply - M1 (YoY)                                                JAN                     --                 21.70%                 17.40%                   17.40%
       03/04/2011 10:03                      ID             Money Supply - M2 (YoY)                                                JAN                     --                 17.40%                 15.30%                   15.30%
       03/04/2011 11:01                      MA             Current Account Balance                                                 4Q                     --                  23.9B                  19.9B                      --
       03/04/2011 12:35                      ID             Bank Indonesia Reference Rate                                        Mar-04                 6.75%                  6.75%                  6.75%                      --

       03/04/2011 14:30                      TH             Forward Contracts                                                    Feb-25                    --                  $17.7B                $19.3B                      --
       03/04/2011 14:30                      TH             Foreign Reserves                                                     Feb-25                    --                 $179.2B               $176.0B                      --
       03/04/2011 15:00                      UK             Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year                                         FEB                  -2.50%                 -2.80%                -2.40%                      --
       03/04/2011 15:00                      UK             Halifax House Prices sa (MoM)                                          FEB                  -0.50%                 -0.90%                 0.80%                      --
       03/04/2011 15:20                      TA             Foreign Exchange Reserves-US$B                                         FEB                     --                $390.69B               $387.11B                     --
       03/04/2011 15:59                      UK             New Car Registrations (YoY)                                            FEB                     --                  -7.70%               -11.50%                      --
       03/04/2011 17:01                      MA             Exports YoY%                                                           JAN                  4.50%                  3.00%                  4.60%                      --
       03/04/2011 17:01                      MA             Imports YoY%                                                           JAN                 14.60%                 13.50%                 11.50%                      --
       03/04/2011 17:01                      MA             Trade Balance                                                          JAN                   9.40B                 9.19B                  9.69B                      --
       03/04/2011 18:22                      ID             Foreign Reserves                                                       FEB                     --                 $99.62B               $95.33B                      --
       03/04/2011 18:23                      ID             Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln)                                           FEB                     --                 843.37T               827.04T                      --
       03/04/2011 20:30                      US             Change in Nonfarm Payrolls                                             FEB                   196K                   192K                   36K                      63K
       03/04/2011 20:30                      US             Change in Private Payrolls                                             FEB                   200K                   222K                   50K                      68K
       03/04/2011 20:30                      US             Change in Manufact. Payrolls                                           FEB                    25K                    33K                   49K                      53K
       03/04/2011 20:30                      US             Unemployment Rate                                                      FEB                  9.10%                  8.90%                  9.00%                      --
       03/04/2011 20:30                      US             Avg Hourly Earning MOM All Emp                                         FEB                  0.20%                  0.00%                  0.40%                      --
       03/04/2011 20:30                      US             Avg Hourly Earning YOY All Emp                                         FEB                  1.90%                  1.70%                  1.90%                      --
       03/04/2011 20:30                      US             Avg Weekly Hours All Employees                                         FEB                    34.3                  34.2                   34.2                      --
       03/04/2011 22:00                      CA             Ivey Purchasing Managers Index                                         FEB                    51.4                  69.3                   41.4                      --
       03/04/2011 22:00                      US             Factory Orders                                                         JAN                  2.00%                  3.10%                  0.20%                    1.40%
       03/07/2011 05:30                      AU             AiG Perf of Construction Index                                         FEB                     --                   44.6                   40.2                      --
       03/07/2011 06:50                      JN             Official Reserve Assets                                                FEB                     --                $1091.5B               $1093.0B                     --
       03/07/2011 07:30                      AU             ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)                                           FEB                     --                  1.20%                  2.40%                      --
       03/07/2011 08:00                      PH             Budget Deficit/Surplus                                                 DEC                     --                     --                   0.5B                      --
       03/07/2011 12:00                      JN             Coincident Index CI                                                  JAN P                   105.9                    --                  103.5                      --
       03/07/2011 12:00                      JN             Leading Index CI                                                     JAN P                   102.3                    --                  101.4                      --
       03/07/2011 12:30                      AU             Foreign Reserves                                                       FEB                     --                     --                  40.8B                      --
       03/07/2011 15:00                      TA             CPI YoY%                                                               FEB                  1.10%                     --                  1.11%                      --
       03/07/2011 15:00                      TA             Total Trade Bal in US$ Billion                                         FEB                  $0.87B                    --                 $1.88B                      --
       03/07/2011 15:00                      TA             Total Exports (YoY)                                                    FEB                 18.30%                     --                 16.60%                      --
       03/07/2011 15:00                      TA             Total Imports (YoY)                                                    FEB                 20.00%                     --                 21.90%                      --
       03/07/2011 15:00                      TA             WPI YoY%                                                               FEB                  1.75%                     --                  1.64%                      --
       03/07/2011 16:00                      SI             Foreign Reserves                                                       FEB                     --                     --                $227.11B                     --
       03/07/2011 16:30                      MA             Foreign Reserves                                                     Feb-28                    --                     --                $109.60B                     --
       03/07/2011 16:30                      EC             Sentix Investor Confidence                                            MAR                     17.2                    --                   16.7                      --
    Source: Bloomberg




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         6
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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KBank Multi Asset Strategies oct 2011 (English)
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K bank daily mar 7

  • 1. Capital Markets Research Mar 7, 2011 Thai Stock Market US Market Mar 04 Change Mar 04 Change SET Index 995.91 Dow Jones +5.83 12,169.88 -88.32 Market Turnover (Bt mn) 25,471.87 Nasdaq -376.37 2,784.67 -14.07 Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) -201.04 S&P 500 +1,519.86 1,321.15 -9.82 Thai Bond Market Mar 04 US 10 yr T-note (%) Change 3.50 -7 bp Total Return Index 200.64 US 2yr T-note (%) +0.04 0.69 -8 bp NYMEX crude ($/b) 103.67 +1.75 Yield curve 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yr Mar 04 (%) 2.10 2.34 2.57 2.76 3.13 3.35 3.47 3.69 3.91 4.07 4.14 4.21 Chng 1D (bp) +0 +1 +1 +0 -1 +0 +0 +0 +1 +0 -1 -1 Chng 5D (bp) +0 +5 +8 +8 +1 -1 -1 +0 +2 +1 -1 -1 Interbank Rates Mar 07 Mar 03 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr Overnight (%) 2.25 1.750-2.210 Mar 04 2.33750 2.46500 2.53250 2.60750 2.71000 2.76375 2.84750 Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6m Mar 04 2.25000 2.25000 - - Mar 04 0.27200 0.31450 0.47110 THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6m Mar 04 1.95335 2.10539 2.24230 2.47316 2.68454 2.87914 Mar 04 0.26000 0.30950 0.46250 SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yr Mar 07 Bid/Ask 2.70/2.74 3.08/3.12 3.39/3.43 3.65/3.69 3.85/3.89 4.15/4.19 4.36/4.40 KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m) (against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/Import USD 30.23 30.33 30.58 1.70/8.10 EUR 42.1950 42.3338 42.8675 0.94/6.82 GBP 49.0825 49.2450 49.8350 2.61/8.01 JPY 0.3654 0.3665 0.3733 2.09/8.56 KBank Technical Analysis Mar 07 Mar 04 Support Resistance Trend Strategy THB (Onshore) 30.45 30.46 30.40 30.50 Sideway Sell USD near resistance JPY 82.3 82.26 82.00 82.60 Sideway Sell USD near resistance EUR/USD 1.3977 1.3982 1.3950 1.4100 Sideway Buy EUR near support Macro and Market Outlook • Crude oil price weakened stock market sentiments as Libya’s protests intensify • U.S. non-farm payrolls at 192K in February while unemployment rate fell to 8.9% • Eurozone summit on March 11 while leaders continue to debate over easing credit conditions for Ireland and Greece. Fitch put Spain’s credit rating on negative watch FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD tested 1.40 intraday on Friday, its highest since early November last year. This was despite the positive gains in the U.S. non-farm payrolls. The market is still betting on ECB’s raising of interest rate and further clarity in EU’s solution to debt problems this week • USD/THB decline to 30.45, in line with most Asian currencies on the back of the dollar’s weakness. This week, we expect the USD/THB to range between 30.35 and 30.70 Economic News Update • Premier Wen Jiabao’s pledge to stem inflation in China underscored forecasts for more interest- rate increases as a jump in food and housing prices risks sparking public anger. Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 2. KBank Daily Update Mar 7, 2011 th The eurozone Summit would be held on March 11 and Macro and Market Outlook leaders are looking to confirm the extension of powers to U.S. stocks ended the week little changed, following the EFSF (financial aid fund) to issue bonds and give loans declines on Friday amid the unrests in Libya and other to troubled economies. Germany has yet to show new neighboring countries. At the same time, higher oil prices comments, while the market speculates it is waiting to hear had also overshadowed positive economic data. about other countries’ commitment before pledging more $/ounce $/barrel loans for weaker nations. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings put a 1600 negative watch on Spain’s AA+ credit rating on Friday, 160 citing weakness in the restructuring of banks and longer- 140 1400 term weakness in fiscal health, although it praised Spain 120 1200 for changes in its pension system. 100 1000 80 60 800 40 US Treasuries and Thai rates 600 20 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Treasuries held last week’s loss before a government report that economists said will show retail sales rose in Gold prices (LHS) WTI oil price (RHS) February, and as the U.S. prepared to sell 3-, 10- and 30- year debt. The difference between yields on 10-year notes Violence and protests continue in Libya, threatening a civil and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, a gauge of war. Financial markets in Asia this morning has begun to trader expectations for consumer prices, was 2.51 show responses with stocks down and U.S. crude oil price percentage points, about two basis points away from a 32- climbing to $105/barrel. Meanwhile, gold price increased month high. from Friday’s close to $1,436/ounce this morning as well. Ten-year notes yielded 3.50 percent as of 9:40 a.m. in Economic data update – Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. (Source: Bloomberg) U.S. non-farm payrolls in February was close to market’s forecast of 200,000 job gains, coming in at 192K. Private S&P Index (% ) payrolls added 222K jobs while the government is still 1400 4.0 cutting jobs. At the same time, unemployment rate fell to 1300 8.9% from 9.0% in January. While this number was 3.5 positive, it would have to continue in such strong gains 1200 3.0 over the next few months in order to allow the market to 1100 firmly believe in the U.S. recovery. 2.5 1000 '000 US Non-farm payrolls % 600 11 900 2.0 400 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 10 200 9 S&P Index 10yr Treasury yield 0 8 -200 -400 7 Thai interest rate: The local rates markets were relatively -600 6 quiet on Friday but bond market saw some buying into the -800 5 mid-curve bonds still. FX swap market was less active oon -1000 4 Friday as well but swap points remained near their recent Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 highs as the market awaits MPC’s decision this increase in Non-farm payrolls Unemployment rate Wednesday afternoon. We expect the BoT to raise policy rate by 25bp during each U.S. factory orders for the month of January increased by of the next 4 meetings, bringing to policy rate to 3.25% in 3.1% mom, the quickest pace of gain since 2006. This was July before pausing. At the moment, we still do not see the more than the previous month and the market’s necessity of raising policy rate by 50bp but the risk of Bot expectation, boding well for manufacturing sectors and doing so is not small, given the acceleration of global ongoing employment. energy and food prices. Indonesia’s central bank held its policy rate unchanged at % Government bond yield curve had bear-flattened 6.75% on Friday amid growing uncertainties in the global 4.0 economy. Inflation rate had recently climbed down by a 3.8 slight margin and the central bank would likely continue 3.6 rate hikes in the future. At the same time, Philippines’ 3.4 inflation rate in February also rose higher from 3.6% to 3.2 4.3% (consensus 3.7%), signaling that the central bank 3.0 would be forced to raise policy rate from 4.00% soon. 2.8 2.6 TTM Economic data update – In Europe, policymakers 2.4 continue their debate over debt problems while Ireland and 1y 2y 3y 4y 5y 6y 7y 8y 9y 10y EU’s Commissioner appealed leaders to allow for less strict 04-Mar-11 31-Jan-11 credit conditions for money loaned to Greece and Ireland. 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 3. KBank Daily Update Mar 7, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Fri 04-Mar-11 Thu 03-Mar-11 % Change 44 31.3 31.1 USD/THB 30.45 30.47 -0.07 43 30.9 USD/JPY 82.29 82.39 -0.12 30.7 42 30.5 EUR/USD 1.399 1.396 +0.21 41 30.3 GBP/USD 1.6272 1.6272 +0.0 30.1 USD/CHF 0.9255 0.9316 -0.65 40 29.9 29.7 USD/SGD 1.2671 1.2678 -0.06 39 29.5 USD/TWD 29.38 29.47 -0.30 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar USD/KRW 1,117.5 1,113.40 +0.37 EUR/THB (LHS) USD/THB onshore (RHS) USD/PHP 43.28 43.33 -0.12 USD/IDR 9,040 8,803 +2.69 EUR/USD tested 1.40 intraday on Friday, its highest since early November last year. This was despite the positive USD/MYR 3.028 3.030 -0.07 gains in the U.S. non-farm payrolls. The market is still USD/CNY 6.567 6.572 -0.07 betting on ECB’s raising of interest rate and further clarity Source: Reuters in EU’s solution to debt problems this week. .FX Consensus Forecast The dollar index (weighted measure of the U.S. dollar Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 against 6 other major currencies), declined to near its 4- USD/THB 30.46 30.00 29.00 month low on Friday, indicating substantial weakness for the near term. USD/JPY 82.36 85.00 89.00 EUR/USD 1.40 1.34 1.35 38.50 80 GBP/USD 1.62 1.60 1.62 38.00 81 37.50 USD/CNY 6.57 6.47 6.30 82 37.00 USD/SGD 1.27 1.26 1.23 83 USD/IDR 8,787 8,900 8,795 36.50 36.00 84 USD/MYR 3.03 3.02 2.96 USD/PHP 43.38 42.90 42.00 35.50 85 1-Jan 16-Jan 31-Jan 15-Feb 2-Mar USD/KRW 1,117 1,092 1,050 JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/TWD 29.41 28.80 28.25 USD/THB decline to 30.45, in line with most Asian AUD/USD 1.01 1.00 0.98 currencies on the back of the dollar’s weakness. This NZD/USD 0.74 0.76 0.75 week, we expect the USD/THB to range between 30.35 Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB and 30.70 Currency Pair Targets Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 31.20 31.00 USD/THB 0.37 0.35 0.33 30.80 EUR/THB 42.56 40.20 39.15 30.60 30.40 JPY/THB 49.49 48.00 46.98 30.20 GBP/THB 4.64 4.64 4.60 30.00 CNY/THB 30.87 30.00 28.42 29.80 29.60 AUD/THB 22.47 22.80 21.75 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan 14-Feb 1-Mar CHF/THB 24.05 23.81 23.58 USD/THB Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank NEER Index Current 98.32 YTD + 5.58% vs 52 weeks ago + 3.09% vs 1mth ago + 0.10% vs 1 week ago - 0.01% vs 1 day ago + 0.00% vs long term average + 10.48% Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 4. KBank Daily Update Mar 7, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT bonds Mar 04 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB116A 2.63 2.58 2.52 2.46 2.40 2.34 2.29 2.23 1.92 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB11NA 3.57 3.34 3.11 2.88 2.65 2.42 2.19 1.96 1.47 CB11322A 0.04 95,000 2.063/2.080 2.072720 1.23 LB123A 4.17 3.83 3.49 3.15 2.80 2.46 2.12 1.78 1.18 Source: ThaiBMA LB12NA 5.28 4.71 4.13 3.56 2.98 2.41 1.83 1.26 0.43 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB133A 6.07 5.35 4.63 3.91 3.20 2.48 1.76 1.04 0.08 LB137A 6.57 5.75 4.92 4.10 3.27 2.45 1.62 0.80 -0.28 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB13OA 6.99 6.07 5.15 4.23 3.31 2.39 1.47 0.55 -0.62 LB143A 7.50 6.48 5.45 4.43 3.40 2.38 1.35 0.33 -0.94 CB11407C 0.08 25,000 08-Mar-11 07-Apr-11 - LB145A 7.86 6.75 5.64 4.53 3.42 2.31 1.20 0.09 -1.27 CB11609B 0.25 20,000 08-Mar-11 09-Jun-11 - LB145B 7.85 6.74 5.63 4.52 3.41 2.30 1.20 0.09 -1.27 CB11908A 0.50 12,000 08-Mar-11 08-Sep-11 - LB14DA 8.68 7.39 6.09 4.80 3.50 2.21 0.91 -0.38 -1.93 Source: ThaiBMA LB155A 9.44 7.96 6.47 4.99 3.51 2.03 0.54 -0.94 -2.67 Auction Calendar of Government Bonds LB157A 9.30 7.85 6.41 4.96 3.52 2.08 0.63 -0.81 -2.50 Tenor Amt. LB15DA 10.23 8.54 6.85 5.16 3.47 1.78 0.09 -1.59 -3.53 Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB167A 10.87 9.05 7.24 5.42 3.60 1.79 -0.03 -1.84 -3.91 LB316A 20.62 6,000 16-Mar-11 20-Jun-31 - LB16NA 11.42 9.48 7.53 5.58 3.64 1.69 -0.25 -2.20 -4.39 - LB14NA 4.00 8,000 16-Mar-11 26-Nov-14 LB171A 11.49 9.54 7.58 5.63 3.68 1.73 -0.22 -2.17 -4.37 LB17OA 7.09 10,000 30-Mar-11 10-Oct-17 - LB175A 12.00 9.92 7.84 5.76 3.69 1.61 -0.47 -2.55 -4.88 Source: ThaiBMA LB183A 13.29 10.90 8.51 6.12 3.74 1.35 -1.03 -3.42 -6.05 LB183B 13.02 10.70 8.38 6.06 3.74 1.42 -0.90 -3.22 -5.78 LB191A 13.79 11.29 8.79 6.28 3.78 1.28 -1.22 -3.71 -6.46 LB196A 14.70 11.96 9.22 6.48 3.75 1.01 -1.72 -4.46 -7.44 LB198A 14.53 11.86 9.18 6.50 3.83 1.15 -1.52 -4.19 -7.11 LB19DA 14.83 12.09 9.36 6.62 3.88 1.15 -1.59 -4.32 -7.30 LB213A 15.96 12.96 9.96 6.96 3.96 0.97 -2.03 -5.02 -8.26 LB214A 15.84 12.88 9.92 6.96 4.01 1.05 -1.90 -4.86 -8.06 LB22NA 17.91 14.45 10.99 7.54 4.08 0.63 -2.82 -6.27 -9.97 LB233A 18.31 14.76 11.22 7.67 4.13 0.59 -2.95 -6.49 -10.28 LB236A 19.43 15.61 11.79 7.97 4.15 0.34 -3.48 -7.29 -11.35 LB244A 19.54 15.70 11.86 8.02 4.18 0.35 -3.49 -7.32 -11.40 LB24DA 20.14 16.15 12.16 8.18 4.19 0.21 -3.77 -7.75 -11.98 LB267A 20.65 16.55 12.45 8.35 4.25 0.15 -3.94 -8.03 -12.37 LB283A 22.32 17.80 13.28 8.77 4.26 -0.25 -4.76 -9.26 -14.01 LB296A 23.60 18.76 13.93 9.09 4.27 -0.56 -5.38 -10.20 -15.27 LB383A 28.37 22.35 16.35 10.35 4.35 -1.64 -7.63 -13.61 -19.84 LB396A 29.15 22.94 16.75 10.56 4.37 -1.81 -7.99 -14.15 -20.57 Average 13.26 10.86 8.47 6.07 3.68 1.28 -1.11 -3.50 -6.14 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 5. KBank Daily Update Mar 7, 2011 Economic News Update Inflation Endangering China ‘Dream’ Spurs Wen Price Pledge: Premier Wen Jiabao’s pledge to stem inflation in China underscored forecasts for more interest-rate increases as a jump in food and housing prices risks sparking public anger. Wen, in his opening speech to the annual National People’s Congress conclave in Beijing two days ago, said that reining in consumer and property prices is the nation’s top priority. That will be welcome to fruit vendor Song Zhiqiang, 56, of the southwestern city of Guiyang, who says: “My rent’s doubled in a year and my family’s food budget has increased to 3,000 yuan,” or $456, from 1,200 yuan. Policy makers’ 4 percent inflation target for this year was exceeded by almost a percentage point in February, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Without higher deposit rates to encourage saving, and a stronger currency to ease import costs, the risk is that price pressures will keep escalating in coming months. For their part, investors have signaled diminished concern that Wen’s government will tighten monetary policy so fast that it will hobble growth in the world’s fastest-expanding major economy. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index of stocks has climbed in five of the past six weeks, closing on March 4 at the highest level since mid- November. Additional increases in benchmark interest rates and banks’ reserve requirements may help to bring price pressures under control, Maguire said. Nomura Holdings Inc. forecasts 0.75 percentage point of interest-rate increases by year-end, along with gains in banks’ reserve ratios. Wen didn’t set any lending target for banks. New loans topped a 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) ceiling last year and the central bank said Feb. 17 that it will develop a wider measure of credit growth and liquidity, including off-balance sheet lending, local and foreign-currency loans, and bond and stock sales. “Exorbitant” house price increases in some cities are a top public concern, Wen told the thousands of lawmakers gathered in Beijing, adding that the government will curb speculation and “adjust and improve” real-estate tax policies. The budget for this year shows a 35 percent increase in spending on low-income housing. At the congress, official reports confirmed targets of 4 percent inflation and 8 percent economic growth for this year and showed that the nation will spend more on the internal police force than the armed forces. In his speech, Wen said that keeping prices stable is the “top priority in macroeconomic control” for this year and the Market Strategists: government aims to narrow the widening gap between rich and poor “as soon as possible.” (Source: Bloomberg) Nalin Chutchotitham Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com Tel: 02-470-3235 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 6. KBank Daily Update Mar 7, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 03/04/2011 08:00 PH Consumer Price Index (YoY) FEB 3.70% 4.30% 3.50% 3.60% 03/04/2011 08:00 PH Consumer Price Index NSA (MoM) FEB 0.60% 1.10% 0.80% -- 03/04/2011 10:02 ID Money Supply - M1 (YoY) JAN -- 21.70% 17.40% 17.40% 03/04/2011 10:03 ID Money Supply - M2 (YoY) JAN -- 17.40% 15.30% 15.30% 03/04/2011 11:01 MA Current Account Balance 4Q -- 23.9B 19.9B -- 03/04/2011 12:35 ID Bank Indonesia Reference Rate Mar-04 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% -- 03/04/2011 14:30 TH Forward Contracts Feb-25 -- $17.7B $19.3B -- 03/04/2011 14:30 TH Foreign Reserves Feb-25 -- $179.2B $176.0B -- 03/04/2011 15:00 UK Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year FEB -2.50% -2.80% -2.40% -- 03/04/2011 15:00 UK Halifax House Prices sa (MoM) FEB -0.50% -0.90% 0.80% -- 03/04/2011 15:20 TA Foreign Exchange Reserves-US$B FEB -- $390.69B $387.11B -- 03/04/2011 15:59 UK New Car Registrations (YoY) FEB -- -7.70% -11.50% -- 03/04/2011 17:01 MA Exports YoY% JAN 4.50% 3.00% 4.60% -- 03/04/2011 17:01 MA Imports YoY% JAN 14.60% 13.50% 11.50% -- 03/04/2011 17:01 MA Trade Balance JAN 9.40B 9.19B 9.69B -- 03/04/2011 18:22 ID Foreign Reserves FEB -- $99.62B $95.33B -- 03/04/2011 18:23 ID Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln) FEB -- 843.37T 827.04T -- 03/04/2011 20:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls FEB 196K 192K 36K 63K 03/04/2011 20:30 US Change in Private Payrolls FEB 200K 222K 50K 68K 03/04/2011 20:30 US Change in Manufact. Payrolls FEB 25K 33K 49K 53K 03/04/2011 20:30 US Unemployment Rate FEB 9.10% 8.90% 9.00% -- 03/04/2011 20:30 US Avg Hourly Earning MOM All Emp FEB 0.20% 0.00% 0.40% -- 03/04/2011 20:30 US Avg Hourly Earning YOY All Emp FEB 1.90% 1.70% 1.90% -- 03/04/2011 20:30 US Avg Weekly Hours All Employees FEB 34.3 34.2 34.2 -- 03/04/2011 22:00 CA Ivey Purchasing Managers Index FEB 51.4 69.3 41.4 -- 03/04/2011 22:00 US Factory Orders JAN 2.00% 3.10% 0.20% 1.40% 03/07/2011 05:30 AU AiG Perf of Construction Index FEB -- 44.6 40.2 -- 03/07/2011 06:50 JN Official Reserve Assets FEB -- $1091.5B $1093.0B -- 03/07/2011 07:30 AU ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) FEB -- 1.20% 2.40% -- 03/07/2011 08:00 PH Budget Deficit/Surplus DEC -- -- 0.5B -- 03/07/2011 12:00 JN Coincident Index CI JAN P 105.9 -- 103.5 -- 03/07/2011 12:00 JN Leading Index CI JAN P 102.3 -- 101.4 -- 03/07/2011 12:30 AU Foreign Reserves FEB -- -- 40.8B -- 03/07/2011 15:00 TA CPI YoY% FEB 1.10% -- 1.11% -- 03/07/2011 15:00 TA Total Trade Bal in US$ Billion FEB $0.87B -- $1.88B -- 03/07/2011 15:00 TA Total Exports (YoY) FEB 18.30% -- 16.60% -- 03/07/2011 15:00 TA Total Imports (YoY) FEB 20.00% -- 21.90% -- 03/07/2011 15:00 TA WPI YoY% FEB 1.75% -- 1.64% -- 03/07/2011 16:00 SI Foreign Reserves FEB -- -- $227.11B -- 03/07/2011 16:30 MA Foreign Reserves Feb-28 -- -- $109.60B -- 03/07/2011 16:30 EC Sentix Investor Confidence MAR 17.2 -- 16.7 -- Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.