Cmb seminar khun kitti 2011 12-15

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Cmb seminar khun kitti 2011 12-15

  1. 1. FX / Rates Market Movement Updates December 2011 1
  2. 2. EURUSD Movement Debt problem in Europe will still weigh on its currency, at least in the first half of 2012. Source : Reuters 2
  3. 3. USDTHB Movement 1996-2011 This year high and low of USDTHB is only 1.6 baht, narrowest range since 1997. USDTHB Spot Source : Reuters 3
  4. 4. USDTHB Movement 2011 Technically, 29.5 seems to be good support while 31.5 is also strong resistance. However, looking from market sentiment, there is possibility we may see THB weaken to 32-33 first before coming back down. USDTHB Spot Source : Reuters 4
  5. 5. USDTHB Movement 2011 THB spot is well correlated with SET index... (When SET weakens, THB weakens) USDTHB Spot SET Index Source : Reuters 5
  6. 6. USDTHB Movement 2011 And also EUR. (When EUR weakens, THB weakens) USDTHB Spot EURUSD Spot Source : Reuters 6
  7. 7. Crude Oil Movement NYMEX crude oil should still trade in uptrend, roughly 75-110 range next year. Source : Reuters 7
  8. 8. Gold Movement Gold recently got hurt from ‘no QE3’ from U.S. while implication from Europe is confusing. $1,500 should be strong (and last) support. Source : Reuters 8
  9. 9. THB and USD Interest Rate We should still see soft rate environment as least in the first half of 2012. 5Y THB IRS 5Y USDIRS Source : Reuters 9
  10. 10. Kingdom of Thailand 5Y CDS 10
  11. 11. Disclaimer“This document is intended to provide material information relating to investment or product in discussion and for reference during discussion,presentation or seminar only. It does not represent or constitute an advice, offer, contract, recommendation or solicitation and should not be relied on assuch. In preparation of this document, KASIKORNBANK Public Company Limited (“KBank”) has made several crucial assumptions and relied heavilyon the financial and other information made available from public sources, and thus KBank assumes no responsibility and makes no representations withrespect to accuracy and/or completeness of the information described herein. Before making your own independent decision to invest or enter intotransaction, the recipient of the information (the "Recipient") shall review information relating to service or products of KBank including economic andmarket situation and other factors pertaining to the transaction as posted in KBank’s website at URL http://www.kasikornbankgroup.com and in otherwebsites including to review all other information, documents prepared by other institutions and consult financial, legal or tax advisors each time. TheRecipient understands and acknowledges that the investment or execution of the transaction is the transaction with low liquidity and that KBank shallassume no liability for any loss or damage incurred by the Recipient arising out of such investment or execution of the transaction. Each Recipientincluding its employee or officer who receives this document or a copy of the document represents and agrees not to reproduce, distribute or provide it inwhole or in part to any other person and agrees to keep confidential all information contained therein.In the case of derivative products, where the Recipient provides incomplete or inaccurate information to KBank, KBank may not be capable of deliveringinformation relating to investment or derivative products appropriate to the genuine need of the Recipient. The Recipient also acknowledges andunderstands that the information so provided by KBank does not represent the expected yield or consideration to be received by the Recipient arising outof the execution of the transaction. Further the Recipient should be aware that the transaction can be highly risky as the markets are unpredictable andthere may be inadequate regulations and safeguards available to the Recipient.KBank reserves the rights to amend either in whole or in part of information so provided herein at any time as it deems fit and the Recipientacknowledges and agrees with such amendment. Where there is any inquiry, the Recipient may seek further information from KBank or in case ofmaking complaint, the Recipient can contact KBank at (662) 888 8822.” 11

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