Cmb seminar khun kitti 2011 12-15


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Cmb seminar khun kitti 2011 12-15

  1. 1. FX / Rates Market Movement Updates December 2011 1
  2. 2. EURUSD Movement Debt problem in Europe will still weigh on its currency, at least in the first half of 2012. Source : Reuters 2
  3. 3. USDTHB Movement 1996-2011 This year high and low of USDTHB is only 1.6 baht, narrowest range since 1997. USDTHB Spot Source : Reuters 3
  4. 4. USDTHB Movement 2011 Technically, 29.5 seems to be good support while 31.5 is also strong resistance. However, looking from market sentiment, there is possibility we may see THB weaken to 32-33 first before coming back down. USDTHB Spot Source : Reuters 4
  5. 5. USDTHB Movement 2011 THB spot is well correlated with SET index... (When SET weakens, THB weakens) USDTHB Spot SET Index Source : Reuters 5
  6. 6. USDTHB Movement 2011 And also EUR. (When EUR weakens, THB weakens) USDTHB Spot EURUSD Spot Source : Reuters 6
  7. 7. Crude Oil Movement NYMEX crude oil should still trade in uptrend, roughly 75-110 range next year. Source : Reuters 7
  8. 8. Gold Movement Gold recently got hurt from ‘no QE3’ from U.S. while implication from Europe is confusing. $1,500 should be strong (and last) support. Source : Reuters 8
  9. 9. THB and USD Interest Rate We should still see soft rate environment as least in the first half of 2012. 5Y THB IRS 5Y USDIRS Source : Reuters 9
  10. 10. Kingdom of Thailand 5Y CDS 10
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