KBank daily feb 1

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KBank daily feb 1

  1. 1. Capital Markets Research Feb 1, 2011Thai Stock Market Jan 31 Change US Market Jan 31 ChangeSET Index 964.1 -17.73 Dow Jones 11,891.93 +68.23Market Turnover (Bt mn) 21,292.24 -6,003.88 Nasdaq 2,700.08 +13.19Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) -883.64 -156.50 S&P 500 1,286.12 +9.78Thai Bond Market Jan 31 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 3.38 +5 bpTotal Return Index 200.50 +0.11 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.57 +2 bpTotal Market Turnover (Bt mn) NYMEX crude ($/b) 92.19 +2.85Change (bp) 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yrJan 31 (%) 2.05 2.11 2.27 2.54 2.96 3.21 3.40 3.63 3.85 4.05 4.15 4.22Change (bp) -1 0 -2 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 1 1 -1Interbank Rates Feb 01 Jan 28 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yrOvernight (%) 2.25 2.050-2.210 Jan 31 2.26250 2.28766 2.34750 2.40000 2.50000 2.57125 2.67219Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6mJan 31 2.25000 2.25000 - - Jan 31 0.27060 0.30900 0.46550THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6mJan 31 0.49345 0.62723 0.93188 1.42530 1.69804 1.92612 Jan 31 0.26000 0.30438 0.45381SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yrFeb 01 Bid/Ask 1.86/1.90 2.57/2.61 3.07/3.11 3.40/3.44 3.64/3.68 3.95/3.99 4.21/4.25KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m)(against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/ImportUSD 30.64 30.74 30.99 -0.30/1.80EUR 41.9638 42.1013 42.6300 -4.26/0.30GBP 49.1075 49.2675 49.8563 -2.18/1.16JPY 0.3716 0.3729 0.3798 -1.42/3.41KBank Technical Analysis Feb 01 Jan 31 Support Resistance Trend StrategyTHB (Onshore) 30.84 30.87 30.80 30.95 Sideway Sell USD near resistanceJPY 81.99 82.07 81.80 82.60 Sideway Buy USD near supportEUR/USD 1.3719 1.3685 1.3660 1.3760 Sideway Buy EUR near support Macro and Market Outlook • Crude oil price rose on the back of concerns about Egypt’s unrest and possible disruption of major transportation route • U.S. data continued to show positive signs, with personal spending up by 0.7% mom after a 0.3% climb in November but core inflation as measured from real spending fell to a record low • Thai domestic economy continued to see signs of a slower pace of expansion while trade and current accounts balances remained in surplus FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD rebounded to 1.369 as an early-estimate of inflation rate in the eurozone was at 2.4% in January, higher than the previous month’s 2.2% and the market’s forecast of 2.3% • USD/THB lowered to a close of 30.90 but, intraday, the pair rose to as high as 31.15. Baht later recovered some gains as U.S. economic data showed positive signs Economic News Update • Obama lost the second of four court challenges to his health-care law as a federal judge in Florida ruled that the measure went beyond the power of Congress to regulate commerce • China’s manufacturing growth slowed for a second month after the central bank raised interest rates and lenders’ reserve requirements to counter inflation and asset-bubble risks Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein wasobtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  2. 2. KBank Daily Update Feb 1, 2011 accounts balance remained in surplus, which should Macro and Market Outlook prevent any large rebound in the USD/THB. $/barrel US$, mn Current account (Trade balance + Services) and BOP 100 6000 95 5000 4000 90 3000 85 2000 80 1000 75 0 70 -1000 65 -2000 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Arabian Gulf Dubai Fateh WTI oil price (RHS) Dated Brent Trade balance Services and transfers Balance of Payments Crude oil price rose higher yesterday on the back of concerns of social unrests in Egypt which threatens the important transportation route – the Suez canal. Global US Treasuries and Thai rates stocks ended little changed on Monday as investors weigh positive economic data releases with the geopolitical uncertainties. Treasuries held a loss from yesterday as Asian stocks advanced before an industry report that economists said % yoy 8 will show manufacturing in the U.S. grew in January for an 18th month. 6 4 The difference between two- and 30-year yields was near the widest ever as investors demanded compensation on 2 their long- maturity holdings for the prospect of rising 0 inflation. The spread was 4.01 percentage points, versus -2 the record of 4.04 percentage points set Jan. 28. -4 Benchmark 10-year notes yielded 3.38 percent as of 10:13 2007 2008 2009 2010 a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. Personal income % yoy Personal spending % yoy (Source: Bloomberg) S&P Index (bp) U.S. data update – consumer spending rose more than 1350 300 estimated in December (0.7%mom vs. 0.3% in November) 1300 280 while personal income rose 0.1% mom (0.2% in 1250 November). Meanwhile, the ISM business confidence 260 1200 indicator rose to 68.8, its highest level since 1988. More 240 1150 signs are indicating a gradual improvement in the U.S. 220 1100 economy but core inflation, as measured from the personal 1050 200 consumption basket, rose by only 0.7% yoy (flat month-on- 1000 180 month), the lowest pace since the record began in 1960. Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 % YoY % YoY 12 24 S&P Index 2-10 Spread (bps, RHS) 10 19 8 14 6 Thai interest rate: Bond and IRS yields decline slight 9 4 4 yesterday (1-3bp lower), still capped on gains by the USD 2 liquidity shortage in the FX swap market. However, yields -1 0 -2 -6 remained higher than that of the previous week’s, reflecting -4 -11 market’s continued pricing in of further policy rate hike by -6 -16 the BoT. We expect that the FX wap market would return to -8 -21 normalcy if the market is convinced, somewhere in the 05 06 07 08 09 10 future, that trouble in Egypt would not spread or have a Private Consumtption Index (left axis) Private Investment Index(right axis) wide scale effect. Thai economic data update – domestic economy continued to see signs of a slower pace of expansion, bp Government bond yield change % especially for the private consumption and investment 12 5.0 indicators. Nevertheless, tourism sector still looked bright 10 4.5 while farm income index continued to show growth. 8 4.0 External trade sector still looks rather positive but some 6 3.5 signs of slowdown cannot be avoided as the global 4 3.0 economy sees a moderation in growth and the Thai baht 2 2.5 was among the 3 top gainers in Asia against the USD. 0 2.0 Exports grew by 18.6% in December while imports rose by 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 20.0 yrs 8.8%, both showing signs of deceleration from previous Spread (left axis) 1-Feb-11 25-Jan-11 month’s high growth rates. Trade balance and current 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  3. 3. KBank Daily Update Feb 1, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Mon 31-Jan-11 Fri 28-Jan-11 % Change 1.42 1.40 USD/THB 30.90 31.03 -0.42 1.38 USD/JPY 82.07 82.10 -0.04 1.36 EUR/USD 1.369 1.361 +0.57 1.34 GBP/USD 1.6015 1.5860 +0.98 1.32 1.30 USD/CHF 0.9438 0.9416 +0.23 1.28 USD/SGD 1.2791 1.2846 -0.43 1.26 USD/TWD 29.03 29.05 -0.07 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 USD/KRW 1,119.3 1,115.6 +0.33 EUR/USD USD/PHP 44.22 44.08 +0.32 EUR/USD rebounded to 1.369 as an early-estimate of USD/IDR 9,043 9,023 +0.22 inflation rate in the eurozone was at 2.4% in January, USD/MYR 3.060 3.054 +0.20 higher than the previous month’s 2.2% and the market’s forecast of 2.3%. This marks the second month that USD/CNY 6.602 6.582 +0.30 Source: Reuters inflation rate had exceeded the ECB’s policy target of .FX Consensus Forecast 2.0%. The market is speculating that Europe’s interest rate may have to rise much earlier than previous thought, Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 supporting the euro vs the greenback as the Fed is expected to keep policy rate unchanged till year-end. USD/THB 30.90 28.30 28.00 USD/JPY 82.05 86.00 89.00 38.00 80 EUR/USD 1.37 1.30 1.31 37.50 GBP/USD 1.61 1.55 1.60 82 37.00 USD/CNY 6.60 6.45 6.30 36.50 84 USD/SGD 1.28 1.27 1.23 36.00 USD/IDR 9,039 8,900 8,800 86 35.50 USD/MYR 3.06 3.02 2.96 35.00 88 USD/PHP 44.21 42.60 41.50 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb USD/KRW 1,117 1,090 1,050 JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/TWD 29.03 28.80 28.60 AUD/USD 1.00 0.99 0.97 USD/JPY closed at 82.07, still in range trade and likely to remain supported in the near-term amid the uncertainties in NZD/USD 0.77 0.77 0.76 the global markets. Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB 31.30 Currency Pair Targets 31.10 Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 30.90 USD/THB 31.18 28.30 28.0 30.70 30.50 EUR/THB 42.38 40.0 37.0 30.30 30.10 JPY/THB 37.90 34.70 29.5 29.90 GBP/THB 49.35 47.40 43.7 29.70 29.50 CNY/THB 4.73 4.78 4.2 1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan AUD/THB 30.89 27.4 26.0 USD/THB CHF/THB 33.11 29.6 27.7 Source: KBank, Bloomberg USD/THB lowered to a close of 30.90, similar to Thursday’s level. Intraday, the pair rose to as high as 31.15 KBank NEER Index but the baht later recovered some gains as U.S. economic Current 97.99 data showed positive signs, and baht followed the euro and other risky assets stronger. YTD + 5.23% vs 52 weeks ago + 4.16% China fixed its reference rate at a record high again today, vs 1mth ago - 2.51% reaffirming its move towards letting the yuan appreciate vs 1 week ago + 0.37% against the greenback. The reference rate is at 6.6860 today vs. 6.5891 on Monday. vs 1 day ago + 0.00% vs long term average + 10.17% Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  4. 4. KBank Daily Update Feb 1, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT Bonds Jan 28 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 No auctions on Jan 31st LB113A 2.09 2.11 2.13 2.15 2.16 2.18 2.20 2.22 1.98 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB116A 2.70 2.61 2.51 2.42 2.32 2.23 2.13 2.04 1.69 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB11NA 3.59 3.32 3.05 2.78 2.51 2.25 1.98 1.71 1.19 CB11215A 0.04 85,000 2.080/2.143 2.130440 0.96 LB123A 4.19 3.82 3.45 3.08 2.71 2.34 1.97 1.60 0.98 Source: ThaiBMA LB12NA 5.35 4.74 4.13 3.52 2.90 2.29 1.68 1.07 0.20 LB133A 6.02 5.28 4.54 3.80 3.06 2.32 1.59 0.85 -0.14 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB137A 6.59 5.72 4.86 4.00 3.13 2.27 1.41 0.55 -0.57 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark LB13OA 7.02 6.06 5.10 4.14 3.19 2.23 1.27 0.31 -0.89 (yrs) (Bt mn) LB143A 7.38 6.36 5.33 4.31 3.29 2.26 1.24 0.22 -1.05 CB11303DA 0.08 25,000 01-Feb-11 03-Mar-11 - LB145A 7.94 6.79 5.64 4.50 3.35 2.20 1.06 -0.09 -1.49 CB11506C 0.25 22,000 01-Feb-11 06-May-11 - LB145B 7.93 6.79 5.64 4.49 3.35 2.20 1.06 -0.09 -1.48 CB11804B 0.50 15,000 01-Feb-11 04-Aug-11 - LB14DA 8.74 7.40 6.07 4.74 3.40 2.07 0.74 -0.59 -2.18 CB12202A 1.00 50,000 01-Feb-11 02-Feb-12 - LB155A 9.51 7.98 6.46 4.94 3.42 1.90 0.39 -1.13 -2.90 BOT142A 3.00 15,000 11-Feb-11 15-Feb-14 - LB157A 9.37 7.89 6.40 4.92 3.44 1.96 0.48 -1.00 -2.73 - BOT152A 4.00 15,000 22-Feb-11 24-Feb-11 LB15DA 10.35 8.62 6.89 5.16 3.44 1.71 -0.01 -1.74 -3.72 Source: ThaiBMA LB167A 10.94 9.08 7.23 5.37 3.52 1.66 -0.19 -2.04 -4.15 LB16NA 11.49 9.51 7.52 5.54 3.56 1.57 -0.41 -2.39 -4.63 LB171A 11.58 9.59 7.60 5.61 3.62 1.63 -0.35 -2.34 -4.58 LB175A 12.11 9.99 7.87 5.76 3.64 1.53 -0.59 -2.70 -5.07 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months LB183A 13.20 10.82 8.44 6.06 3.69 1.31 -1.06 -3.44 -6.06 during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury cash balance. LB183B 12.90 10.60 8.29 5.99 3.69 1.39 -0.91 -3.22 -5.77 LB191A 13.87 11.33 8.79 6.25 3.71 1.17 -1.37 -3.91 -6.69 LB196A 14.82 12.04 9.27 6.49 3.72 0.95 -1.83 -4.60 -7.62 LB198A 14.64 11.92 9.21 6.49 3.77 1.06 -1.65 -4.37 -7.33 LB19DA 14.92 12.14 9.37 6.59 3.81 1.04 -1.73 -4.51 -7.53 LB213A 16.06 13.02 9.98 6.94 3.91 0.87 -2.16 -5.19 -8.48 LB214A 15.95 12.95 9.95 6.95 3.95 0.96 -2.04 -5.03 -8.27 LB22NA 18.04 14.55 11.05 7.56 4.07 0.58 -2.91 -6.40 -10.13 LB233A 18.11 14.61 11.11 7.61 4.11 0.62 -2.87 -6.37 -10.11 LB236A 19.55 15.69 11.83 7.97 4.12 0.26 -3.59 -7.44 -11.54 LB244A 19.67 15.79 11.91 8.03 4.16 0.28 -3.59 -7.46 -11.58 LB24DA 20.29 16.26 12.24 8.21 4.19 0.18 -3.84 -7.86 -12.12 LB267A 20.79 16.65 12.51 8.37 4.23 0.10 -4.03 -8.16 -12.54 LB283A 22.04 17.59 13.14 8.70 4.26 -0.18 -4.61 -9.04 -13.72 LB296A 23.75 18.88 14.01 9.14 4.28 -0.58 -5.44 -10.29 -15.39 LB383A 27.96 22.05 16.15 10.26 4.37 -1.52 -7.40 -13.27 -19.39 LB396A 29.28 23.05 16.82 10.60 4.39 -1.82 -8.03 -14.23 -20.67 Average 12.99 10.64 8.28 5.93 3.58 1.23 -1.12 -3.47 -6.07 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  5. 5. KBank Daily Update Feb 1, 2011 Economic News Update The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 52.9 from 53.9 in December, the China Federation of Logistics and Obama Health-Care Reform Act Ruled Purchasing said in a statement on its website. That was Unconstitutional: U.S. President Barack Obama less than the median estimate of 53.5 in a Bloomberg lost the second of four court challenges to his health-care News survey of 11 economists. law as a federal judge in Florida ruled that the measure went beyond the power of Congress to regulate commerce. Premier Wen Jiabao aims to sustain growth while intensifying a campaign against real-estate speculation and U.S. District Judge Roger Vinson in Pensacola declared fighting inflation that may have accelerated last month after the entire law invalid today in a 78-page opinion in a suit storms disrupted food supplies. The World Bank estimates brought by 26 states. He said a provision requiring that China’s economy will expand 8.7 percent this year, Americans over 18 to obtain insurance coverage violated three times the pace of the U.S., as developing economies the U.S Constitution. The U.S. Justice Department said it continue to outperform richer nations. will appeal. China’s economy expanded 9.8 percent in the fourth Florida sued on behalf of 13 states on March 23, the day quarter from a year earlier, faster than the 9.6 percent gain Obama signed into law the Patient Protection and in the previous three months. Affordable Care Act, legislation intended to provide the U.S. with almost universal health-care coverage. Seven The central bank has raised benchmark interest rates twice states joined the suit last year, and six this year. Virginia since mid-October and pushed banks’ reserve sued separately on March 23 and Oklahoma filed its own requirements to the highest level in more than two decades suit on Jan. 21. to drain money from the financial system. The government also last month expanded measures to cool the real-estate “Regardless of how laudable its attempts may have been to market, including by raising minimum down-payment accomplish these goals in passing the act, Congress must requirements for second-home purchases. operate within the bounds established by the Constitution,” Vinson, 70, wrote. “This case is not about whether the act The PMI is released by the Beijing-based logistics is wise or unwise legislation. It is about the constitutional federation and the National Bureau of Statistics and gives role of the federal government.” He declined to issue an an indication of manufacturing activity by surveying more order blocking enforcement of the law. than 820 companies in 20 industries, including energy, metallurgy, textiles, automobiles and electronics. The ruling by Vinson, who was named to the federal bench in 1983 by President Ronald Reagan, a Republican, would The central bank indicated in a Jan. 30 report that capital be appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals in Atlanta. An inflows and higher labor and resource costs may add to appeals court in Richmond, Virginia, is already slated in inflation pressures. Tools for reining in liquidity and credit May to hear challenges to two conflicting lower-court growth include interest rates, bill sales and bank reserve rulings in that state, one upholding the legislation, the other requirements, the People’s Bank of China said. invalidating part of it. Policy makers aim to hold growth in M2, the broadest “We strongly disagree with the court’s ruling today and measure of money supply, at about 16 percent this year. continue to believe -- as other federal courts have found -- Last year, the actual 19.7 percent gain compared with a that the Affordable Care Act is constitutional,” Tracy target of 17 percent. Local-currency lending totaled 7.95 Schmaler, U.S. Justice Department spokeswoman, said in trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion) in 2010, exceeding the an e-mailed statement. “There is clear and well-established government’s 7.5 trillion yuan ceiling. legal precedent that Congress acted within its constitutional The latest measures to cool the property market include authority in passing this law.” increasing down-payment requirements for second homes The U.S. Supreme Court may ultimately be asked to to 60 percent from 50 percent and trials of property taxes in consider the issue. Of the four courts that have ruled on the Shanghai and Chongqing. (Source: Bloomberg) health-care act, two found that Congress exceeded its authority, while two didn’t. Vinson is the first to invalidate the entire act. “The judge has confirmed what many of us knew from the start: Obamacare is an unprecedented and unconstitutional infringement on the liberty of the American people,” Florida Governor Rick Scott, a Republican, said in a statement. (Source: Bloomberg) Market Strategists: Nalin Chutchotitham China’s Manufacturing Growth Slows as Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com Policy Tightens: China’s manufacturing growth Tel: 02-470-3235 slowed for a second month in January after the central bank raised interest rates and lenders’ reserve requirements to counter inflation and asset-bubble risks. 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  6. 6. KBank Daily Update Feb 1, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 01/31/2011 04:00 SK Business Survey- Manufacturing FEB -- 91 92 -- 01/31/2011 04:00 SK Business Survey- Non-Manufacturing FEB -- 84 87 -- 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Service Industry Output YoY DEC -- 2.10% 3.60% 3.80% 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Industrial Production Mfg(YoY) DEC -- 9.90% 10.60% 10.90% 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Industrial Production (MoM) DEC 2.60% 2.80% 1.40% 1.50% 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Industrial Production (YoY) DEC 9.90% 9.80% 10.40% 10.70% 01/31/2011 06:00 SK Leading Index (YoY) DEC -- 2.30% 2.60% 2.50% 01/31/2011 06:50 JN Industrial Production (MoM) DEC P 2.80% 3.10% 1.00% -- 01/31/2011 06:50 JN Industrial Production YOY% DEC P 4.40% 4.60% 5.80% -- 01/31/2011 09:00 TA HSBC Taiwan Manufacturing PMI JAN -- 59.8 54.7 -- 01/31/2011 09:00 PH GDP (YoY) 4Q 6.00% 7.10% 6.50% 6.30% 01/31/2011 09:00 SI Unemployment Rate (sa) 4Q 2.10% 2.20% 2.10% -- 01/31/2011 09:00 PH GDP sa (QoQ) 4Q 1.50% 3.00% -0.50% -0.80% 01/31/2011 09:00 SI Credit Card Bad Debts DEC -- 17.2M 13.4M -- 01/31/2011 09:00 PH Annual GDP (YoY) Dec-31 7.00% 7.30% 0.90% 1.10% 01/31/2011 09:00 SI Credit Card Billings DEC -- 3205.2M 2872.2M -- 01/31/2011 09:00 SI Bank Loans & Advances (YoY) DEC -- 14.70% 14.50% -- 01/31/2011 11:00 JN Vehicle Production (YoY) DEC -- -5.10% -6.70% -- 01/31/2011 12:00 JN Housing Starts (YoY) DEC 4.60% 7.50% 6.80% -- 01/31/2011 12:00 JN Annualized Housing Starts DEC 0.859M 0.861M 0.847M -- 01/31/2011 14:00 GE Retail Sales (MoM) DEC 2.00% -0.30% -2.40% -1.90% 01/31/2011 14:00 GE Retail Sales (YoY) DEC 1.10% -1.30% 2.00% 2.60% 01/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Exports YOY% DEC -- 18.60% 28.70% -- 01/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Exports in US$ Million DEC -- $17220M $17584M -- 01/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Imports YOY% DEC -- 8.80% 35.00% -- 01/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Imports in US$ Million DEC -- $15911M $17094M -- 01/31/2011 14:30 TH Total Trade Balance DEC -- $1310M $490M -- 01/31/2011 14:30 TH Current Account Balance (USD) DEC $2075M $1750M $1019M -- 01/31/2011 14:30 TH Overall Balance in US$ Million DEC -- $2263M $820M -- 01/31/2011 14:30 TH Business Sentiment Index DEC -- 51.6 52.5 -- 01/31/2011 15:00 TA GDP - Constant Prices (YoY) 4Q P 6.00% 6.48% 9.80% -- 01/31/2011 17:00 EC Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) JAN 2.30% 2.40% 2.20% -- 01/31/2011 20:30 US Personal Income DEC 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 0.40% 01/31/2011 20:30 US Personal Spending DEC 0.50% 0.70% 0.40% 0.30% 01/31/2011 20:30 US PCE Core (MoM) DEC 0.10% 0.00% 0.10% -- 01/31/2011 20:30 US PCE Core (YoY) DEC 0.80% 0.70% 0.80% -- 01/31/2011 20:30 US PCE Deflator (YoY) DEC 1.30% 1.20% 1.00% 1.10% 01/31/2011 21:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager JAN 64.5 68.8 66.8 -- 01/31/2011 22:00 US NAPM-Milwaukee JAN -- 57 62 -- 01/31/2011 22:30 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity JAN 15 10.9 12.8 15.8 02/01/2011 06:00 SK Consumer Price Index (YoY) JAN 3.80% 4.10% 3.50% -- Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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