KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti 2012 02-17


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KBank CMB Seminar Khun Kitti 2012 02-17

  1. 1. Market Movement Updates February 2012 1
  2. 2. USDTHB Spot : 2007-Feb 2012 6.7 Baht (22% Range)Source : Reuters 2
  3. 3. USDTHB Spot : 2011-Feb 2012 2.3 Baht (7% Range)Source : Reuters 3
  4. 4. USDTHB Spot : Min-Max of Each Year 2005 Range 38.30 41.60 (3.30) 2006 Range 35.80 39.00 (3.20) 2007 Range 33.00 35.80 (2.80) 2008 Range 31.50 34.80 (3.30) 2009 Range 33.10 36.10 (3.00) 2010 Range 29.50 33.20 (3.70) 2011 Range 29.50 31.40 (1.90) 2012 (Jan-Feb)Range 30.65 32.00 (1.35) 4
  5. 5. EURUSD Spot : 2007-2011 0.4125 (31% Range)Source : Reuters 5
  6. 6. EURUSD Spot : 2011-Feb 2012 0.2275 (17% Range)Source : Reuters 6
  7. 7. EURUSD Spot : Min-Max of Each Year 2005 Range 1.1640 1.3580 (0.1940) 2006 Range 1.1825 1.3365 (0.1540) 2007 Range 1.2865 1.4965 (0.2100) 2008 Range 1.2330 1.6035 (0.3708) 2009 Range 1.2455 1.5140 (0.2685) 2010 Range 1.1875 1.4280 (0.2405) 2011 Range 1.2860 1.4935 (0.2075) 2012 (Jan-Feb)Range 1.2625 1.3320 (0.0695) 7
  8. 8. USDJPY Movement In continued bearish tone since 2007 but a rebound is possible. Source : Reuters 8
  9. 9. USDTHB Movement Dropped below 31.0 after Fed news, next support 30.75. Source : Reuters 9
  10. 10. Crude Oil Movement Brent crude oil rebounded from 110 area to 118 from tension in Iran. Source : Reuters 10
  11. 11. Gold Movement Gold rose from QE hope from $1,650 to $1,760 but dropped to $1,720 after good nonfarm payroll number. Source : Reuters 11
  12. 12. Copper Movement Recovered from better sentiment in Europe but dropped this week after Moody’s downgrade of 9 European sovereigns. Source : Reuters 12
  13. 13. THB and USD Interest Rate THB Long-term rose after Dr.Prasarn comment that rate is already accommodative. 10Y THB IRS 10Y USDIRS Source : Reuters 13
  14. 14. Italy 10Y Bond Yield The sentiment is better from Greece debt talk hope, rate dropped below 6% now. Source : Reuters 14
  15. 15. What is interesting in the market now? Client who can borrow cheap foreign currency loan (USD, JPY, etc) can now swap into cheap THB funding. For example, client who can borrow 5Y at LIBOR+1% now can swap into THB funding with interest rate THBFIX-0.3% !!! This is due to the imbalance market where a lot of clients need to swap from THB funding into USD funding in order to invest offshore or to match with their USD income flow. For FX hedging, we still recommend clients to buy PUT option (for exporters) or buy CALL option (for importer) as we expect fierce swing in the spot similar to what we have seen last year while the premium is still cheap and not reflect the real spot move. 15
  16. 16. Disclaimer“This document is intended to provide material information relating to investment or product in discussion and for reference during discussion,presentation or seminar only. It does not represent or constitute an advice, offer, contract, recommendation or solicitation and should not be relied on assuch. In preparation of this document, KASIKORNBANK Public Company Limited (“KBank”) has made several crucial assumptions and relied heavilyon the financial and other information made available from public sources, and thus KBank assumes no responsibility and makes no representations withrespect to accuracy and/or completeness of the information described herein. Before making your own independent decision to invest or enter intotransaction, the recipient of the information (the "Recipient") shall review information relating to service or products of KBank including economic andmarket situation and other factors pertaining to the transaction as posted in KBank’s website at URL http://www.kasikornbankgroup.com and in otherwebsites including to review all other information, documents prepared by other institutions and consult financial, legal or tax advisors each time. TheRecipient understands and acknowledges that the investment or execution of the transaction is the transaction with low liquidity and that KBank shallassume no liability for any loss or damage incurred by the Recipient arising out of such investment or execution of the transaction. Each Recipientincluding its employee or officer who receives this document or a copy of the document represents and agrees not to reproduce, distribute or provide it inwhole or in part to any other person and agrees to keep confidential all information contained therein.In the case of derivative products, where the Recipient provides incomplete or inaccurate information to KBank, KBank may not be capable of deliveringinformation relating to investment or derivative products appropriate to the genuine need of the Recipient. The Recipient also acknowledges andunderstands that the information so provided by KBank does not represent the expected yield or consideration to be received by the Recipient arising outof the execution of the transaction. Further the Recipient should be aware that the transaction can be highly risky as the markets are unpredictable andthere may be inadequate regulations and safeguards available to the Recipient.KBank reserves the rights to amend either in whole or in part of information so provided herein at any time as it deems fit and the Recipientacknowledges and agrees with such amendment. Where there is any inquiry, the Recipient may seek further information from KBank or in case ofmaking complaint, the Recipient can contact KBank at (662) 888 8822.” 16