1. DAILY I FOREX REPORT
19THMARCH 2013
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2. HEADLINES
Euro Sinks, Japanese Yen
Soars on Cyprus Bank Levy
Proposal
Dollar Finds Support As
S&P 500 Swoons On
Cyprus Bailout News
TRADING TIPS Forex News: Euro
Plummets As Cyprus
SELL EURUSD BELOW Bailout Stokes Bank Run
Fears
1.2880 tgs
Euro Broadly Sold After Cyprus Unveils
1.2860/1.2840 sl 1.2910
Bank Levy as Part of Bailout
Japanese Yen Soars as Eurozone Bank
SELL USDJPY BELOW Run Fears Spark Risk Aversion
94.30 tgt 94.10/93.90 Spotlight on Cyprus Parliament as EU
Rescue Terms are Put to a Vote
SL 94.60
The Euro is down against all of its major counterparts
as financial markets digest the terms of a bailout deal
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE for Cyprus emerged over the weekend. The proposal
ties a €10 billion international rescue package from
1.5145 Tgt the so-called “troika” (EU/ECB/IMF) to a levy on
Cyprus banks’ deposits. Holdings of up to €100,000
1.5165/1.5185 SL for both residents and non-residents are to be taxed at
6.7 percent tax while those above that threshold are to
1.5115 pay out 9.9 percent. The news is producing
widespread risk aversion, with haven flows buying the
Japanese Yen and US Dollar.
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8. ECONOMIC CALENDER
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Mon CNY Actual FDI (YoY)
Medium -4.8% -7.3%
Mar 18 (FEB)
GBP Rightmove House
00:01 Medium 1.2% 1.1%
Prices (YoY) (MAR)
GBP Rightmove House
00:01 Low 1.7% 2.8%
Prices (MoM) (MAR)
AUD New Motor
00:30 Vehicle Sales (MoM) Low 0.0% -2.2%
(FEB)
AUD New Motor
00:30 Vehicle Sales (YoY) Low 9.4% 10.9%
(FEB)
CNY China February
01:30 Medium
Property Prices
CHF SECO March
06:45 2013 Economic Medium
Forecasts
EUR Euro-Zone Trade
10:00 Low -3.9B -3.5B 10.8B
Balance (euros) (JAN)
EUR Euro-Zone Trade
10:00 Balance s.a. (euros) Low 9.0B 10.9B 10.3B
(JAN)
CAD International
12:30 Securities Transactions Low -1.92B
(Canadian dollar) (JAN)
EUR Cyprus
Parliament to Vote on
14:00 High
Deposit Levy for EU
Bailout Plan
USD NAHB Housing
14:00 Low 47 46
Market Index (MAR)
AUD RBA Policy
Tue
Mar 19
00:30 Meeting - March High
Minutes
CNY Conference Board
China February
02:00 Low
Leading Economic
Index
JPY Bank of Japan
04:00 Governor Shirakawa High
Steps Down
JPY Leading Index
05:00 Medium 96.3
(JAN F)
JPY Coincident Index
05:00 Low 92.0
(JAN F)
JPY Nationwide
05:30 Department Store Low 0.2%
Sales (YoY) (FEB)
9. JPY Tokyo Department
05:30 Store Sales (YoY) Low 0.5%
(FEB)
EUR EU 25 New Car
07:00 Low -8.7%
Registrations (FEB)
GBP Consumer Price
09:30 High 2.8% 2.7%
Index (YoY) (FEB)
GBP Core Consumer
09:30 Price Index (YoY) High 2.2% 2.3%
(FEB)
GBP Consumer Price
09:30 Medium 0.7% -0.5%
Index (MoM) (FEB)
GBP Producer Price
09:30 Index Output Core Medium 1.1% 1.4%
n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)
GBP Producer Price
09:30 Index Output n.s.a. Medium 1.8% 2.0%
(YoY) (FEB)
GBP Retail Price Index
09:30 Medium 3.3% 3.3%
(YoY) (FEB)
GBP DCLG UK House
09:30 Low 2.4% 3.3%
Prices (YoY) (JAN)
GBP Producer Price
09:30 Index Input n.s.a. Low 1.5% 1.3%
(MoM) (FEB)
GBP Producer Price
09:30 Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) Low 0.8% 1.8%
(FEB)
GBP Producer Price
09:30 Index Output Core Low 0.3% 0.2%
n.s.a. (MoM) (FEB)
GBP Producer Price
09:30 Index Output n.s.a. Low 0.4% 0.2%
(MoM) (FEB)
GBP Retail Price Index
09:30 Low
(FEB)
GBP Retail Price Index
09:30 Ex Mort Int.Payments Low 3.2% 3.3%
(YoY) (FEB)
GBP Retail Price Index
09:30 Low 0.8% -0.4%
(MoM) (FEB)
EUR German ZEW
10:00 Survey (Economic High 48.1 48.2
Sentiment) (MAR)
EUR Euro-Zone ZEW
10:00 Survey (Economic Medium 42.4
Sentiment) (MAR)
EUR German ZEW
10:00 Survey (Current Medium 6 5.2
Situation) (MAR)
EUR Euro-Zone
10:00 Construction Output Low -1.7%
s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
EUR Euro-Zone
10:00 Construction Output Low -4.8%
w.d.a. (YoY) (JAN)
10. USD Building Permits
12:30 Medium 2.1% -0.6%
(MoM) (FEB)
USD Housing Starts
12:30 Medium 2.8% -8.5%
(MoM) (FEB)
CAD Manufacturing
12:30 Shipments (MoM) Low 0.6% -3.1%
(JAN)
CAD Wholesale Sales
12:30 Low 0.4% -0.9%
(MoM) (JAN)
USD Building Permits
12:30 Low 923K 904K
(FEB)
USD Housing Starts
12:30 Low 915K 890K
(FEB)
NZD Current Account
21:45 Medium -2.950B -4.418B
Balance (4Q)
NZD Current Account
21:45 Low -4.9% -4.7%
Deficit-GDP Ratio (4Q)
AUD Westpac Leading
23:30 Low 0.2%
Index (MoM) (JAN)
Wed USD Federal Reserve
High
Mar 20 FOMC Meeting
AUD DEWR Internet
00:00 Skilled Vacancies Low -0.7%
(MoM) (FEB)
EUR German Producer
07:00 Medium 1.5% 1.7%
Prices (YoY) (FEB)
EUR German Producer
07:00 Low 0.2% 0.8%
Prices (MoM) (FEB)
EUR Euro-Zone
09:00 Current Account n.s.a. Low 27.0B
(euros) (JAN)
EUR Euro-Zone
09:00 Current Account s.a. Low 13.9B
(euros) (JAN)
GBP Bank of England
Releases Monetary
09:30 High
Policy Committee
Minutes
GBP Jobless Claims
09:30 High -5.0K -12.5K
Change (FEB)
GBP Average Weekly
09:30 Earnings (3M/YoY) Medium 1.5% 1.4%
(JAN)
GBP Claimant Count
09:30 Medium 4.7% 4.7%
Rate (FEB)
GBP Employment
09:30 Medium 140K 154K
Change (3M/3M) (JAN)
GBP ILO
09:30 Unemployment Rate Medium 7.8% 7.8%
(3M) (JAN)
GBP Weekly Earnings
09:30 exBonus (3M/YoY) Low 1.5% 1.3%
(JAN)
11. CHF ZEW Survey
10:00 Medium 10
(Expectations) (MAR)
USD MBA Mortgage
11:00 Low -4.7%
Applications (MAR 15)
GBP U.K. Chancellor
12:30 Osborne Presents 2013 High
Budget to Parliament
CAD Teranet/National
13:00 Low -0.3%
Bank HPI (MoM) (FEB)
CAD Teranet/National
13:00 Low 2.7%
Bank HPI (YoY) (FEB)
CAD Teranet/National
13:00 Low 153
Bank HP Index (FEB)
USD DOE Cushing OK
14:30 Crude Inventory (MAR Low -1526K
15)
USD DOE U.S. Crude
14:30 Oil Inventories (MAR Low 2624K
15)
USD DOE U.S.
14:30 Distillate Inventory Low 83K
(MAR 15)
USD DOE U.S.
14:30 Gasoline Inventories Low -3571K
(MAR 15)
EUR Euro-Zone
15:00 Consumer Confidence Medium -23.2 -23.6
(MAR A)
USD Fed Releases
18:00 Summary of Economic High
Projections
USD Federal Open
18:00 Market Committee Rate High 0.25% 0.25%
Decision (MAR 20)
USD Fed's Bernanke
Holds Press
18:30 High
Conference in
Washington
NZD Gross Domestic
21:45 High 0.9% 0.2%
Product (QoQ) (4Q)
NZD Gross Domestic
21:45 High 2.3% 2.0%
Product (YoY) (4Q)
JPY Merchandise
23:50 Trade Balance Total Medium -¥855.9B -¥1629.4B
(Yen) (FEB)
JPY Adjusted
23:50 Merchandise Trade Low -¥1099.4B -¥678.9B
Balance (Yen) (FEB)
JPY Foreign Buying
23:50 Japan Bonds (Yen) Low -¥838.2B
(MAR 15)
JPY Foreign Buying
23:50 Japan Stocks (Yen) Low ¥1121.9B
(MAR 15)
JPY Japan Buying
23:50 Foreign Bonds (Yen) Low ¥764.4B
(MAR 15)
12. JPY Japan Buying
23:50 Foreign Stocks (Yen) Low -¥269.6B
(MAR 15)
JPY Merchandise
23:50 Trade Exports (YoY) Low -1.2 6.4
(FEB)
JPY Merchandise
23:50 Trade Imports (YoY) Low 14.9 7.3
(FEB)
Thu AUD CBAHIA House
00:00 Low 65.8
Mar 21 Affordability (4Q)
AUD RBA Foreign
Exchange Transaction
00:30 Low 393M
(Australian dollar)
(FEB)
CNY HSBC Flash
01:45 Manufacturing PMI Medium 50.9 50.4
(MAR)
NZD Credit Card
02:00 Medium 0.4%
Spending (YoY) (FEB)
NZD Credit Card
02:00 Spending s.a. (MoM) Medium -2.5%
(FEB)
JPY All Industry Activity
04:30 Medium -1.3% 1.8%
Index (MoM) (JAN)
JPY Supermarket
05:00 Low -4.7%
Sales (YoY) (FEB)
CHF Trade Balance
07:00 Medium 2.13B
(Swiss franc) (FEB)
CHF Exports (MoM)
07:00 Low 3.70%
(FEB)
CHF Imports (MoM)
07:00 Low -0.5%
(FEB)
JPY Convenience
07:00 Store Sales (YoY) Low -0.9%
(FEB)
CHF Money Supply M3
08:00 Low 9.20%
(YoY) (FEB)
EUR French
Purchasing Manager
08:00 Low 44.2 43.9
Index Manufacturing
(MAR P)
EUR French
Purchasing Manager
08:00 Low 44.0 43.7
Index Services (MAR
P)
EUR German
Purchasing Manager
08:30 Medium 50.5 50.3
Index Manufacturing
(MAR A)
EUR German
Purchasing Manager
08:30 Medium 55.0 54.7
Index Services (MAR
A)
EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
09:00 Medium 48.2 47.9
Index Composite (MAR
A)
13. EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
09:00 Medium 48.2 47.9
Index Manufacturing
(MAR A)
EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
09:00 Medium 48.2 47.9
Index Services (MAR
A)
GBP PSNB ex
09:30 Medium 8.0B -11.4B
Interventions (FEB)
GBP Public Finances
09:30 (PSNCR) (Pounds) Medium -12.0B -35.6B
(FEB)
GBP Public Sector Net
09:30 Borrowing (Pounds) Medium 8.2B -9.9B
(FEB)
GBP Retail Sales (YoY)
09:30 Medium 1.2% 0.2%
(FEB)
GBP Retail Sales
09:30 w/Auto Fuel (YoY) Medium 0.5% -0.6%
(FEB)
GBP Retail Sales
09:30 Low 0.6% -0.5%
(MoM) (FEB)
GBP Retail Sales
09:30 w/Auto Fuel (MoM) Low 0.4% -0.6%
(FEB)
GBP CBI Trends
11:00 Low 17 20
Selling Prices (MAR)
GBP CBI Trends Total
11:00 Low -15 -14.0
Orders (MAR)
CAD Retail Sales
12:30 Medium 0.8% -2.1%
(MoM) (JAN)
USD Initial Jobless
12:30 Medium 344K 332K
Claims (MAR 16)
CAD Retail Sales Less
12:30 Low 0.3% -0.9%
Autos (MoM) (JAN)
USD Continuing Claims
12:30 Low 3063K 3024K
(MAR 9)
USD Markit US PMI
12:58 Medium 54.8
Preliminary (MAR)
USD House Price Index
13:00 Medium 0.7% 0.6%
(MoM) (JAN)
USD Existing Home
14:00 Medium 1.6% 0.4%
Sales (MoM) (FEB)
USD Leading Indicators
14:00 Medium 0.3% 0.2%
(FEB)
USD Philadelphia Fed.
14:00 Medium -3 -12.5
(MAR)
USD API Monthly
14:00 Low
Statistical Report
USD Existing Home
14:00 Low 5.00M 4.92M
Sales (FEB)
14. USD EIA Natural Gas
14:30 Storage Change (MAR Low -145
15)
NZD ANZ NZ Job Ads
21:00 Low -1.5%
(MoM) (FEB)
NZD Net Migration s.a.
21:45 Low 350
(FEB)
AUD Conference Board
23:00 Medium -0.1%
Leading Index (JAN)
CNY MNI March Flash
Fri
Mar 22
01:35 Business Sentiment Low
Indicator
EUR German IFO -
09:00 Business Climate Medium 107.8 107.4
(MAR)
EUR German IFO -
09:00 Current Assessment Medium 110.5 110.2
(MAR)
EUR German IFO -
09:00 Medium 105.0 104.6
Expectations (MAR)
USD Fed's Raskin
12:45 Speaks on Labor Low
Market in Washington
USD Fed Revisions of
16:00 Low
Industrial Production
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