Leadership and management in times of turbulence and uncertainty

1. Leading and Managing in Times of
Turbulence and Uncertainty
Kayode Adebiyi, FCA, MBA
December 2016

2. Our Roadmap
Introduction
Resolving
Wicked
problems
and
dilemmas
Managing
YOU
Finance
function in
times like
this.
Recap, Q &
A and
closing

3. Aviation Turbulence vs Corporate turbulence

5. Thunderstorms
• More common in the
warm season
• Very dangerous to
aviation
• Should be avoided!!

6. Weather radar principle:
The radar does detect:
Rainfall
• Wet hail and wet turbulence
• Ice crystals, dry hail and dry snow.
The radar does NOT detect:
• Clouds, fog or wind (droplets are too small, or no precipitation at all) Clear air
turbulence
Man knows NOT his time!

8. CONDITIONS INSIDE THE AIRCRAFT
LIGHT MODERATE SEVERE
 Liquids are
shaking but not
splashing out of
cups
 Carts can be
maneuvered with
little difficulty
 Passengers may
feel a light strain
against seatbelts
 Liquids are
splashing out of
cups
 Difficulties to walk
or stand without
balancing or
holding on to
something. Carts
are difficult to
maneuver
 Passengers feel
definite strain
against seat belt
 Items are falling
over unsecured
objects are tossed
about.
 Walking is
impossible
Passengers are
forced violently
against seat belts
Can lead to crisis, catastrophe, calamity, disaster

9. Air Turbulence
Air currents that vary greatly over
short distances, these may range
from mild eddies that cause
bumpiness…to strong currents of
relatively large dimensions that can
structurally damage an aircraft or
injure its passengers. One clearest
characteristic of turbulence is
disorder!

10. Reduced Visibility = increased
uncertainty
• Fog
• Haze
• Snow
• White out
• Blowing dust
• Affected by sun angle and
direction
• Aircrew must increase vigilance
during these conditions

11. Dehydration
• The loss of water through the skin, lungs
and kidneys never ceases
• Loss increases as the humidity drops with
increasing altitude
• Symptoms are dryness of the tissues and
resulting irritation of the eyes, nose and
throat since they contain caffeine and other
chemicals
Strategies
• Drink plenty of fluids
• Increase air flow (vents and windows)
• If the search objective allows, reduce
temperature by climbing to higher altitude

12. the aircraft
• Turbulence is directly proportional to:
Speed of the aircraft.
Wing area
• Turbulence is inversely proportional to:
Weight of the aircraft
Smaller aircraft benefit from slower speeds and
smaller wing areas…but that is offset by a
lighter weight!
That is why what is light turbulence by 737
Captain may be described as moderate
turbulence in a Piper Cherokee!

13. Flying Strategies
• Don’t fly at high elevation during the
hottest part of the day
• Carefully calculate weight
• Reduce load:
-Less fuel
-Crew of three instead of four
-Less baggage

15. Business Strategy in turbulent environment
 Now and Future
 Cannot see the horizon
 Foggy & volatile environment
 Various independent factors
 Fog of the future
 Defy predictability

16. Favorite Aviation Titbits
• Flying is not dangerous; crashing is
dangerous.
• A thunderstorm is never as bad on
the inside as it appears on the
outside. It's worse!
• The probability of survival is equal
to the angle of arrival.
• Flying is the perfect vocation for a
man who wants to feel like a boy, but
not for one who still is.

17. Favorite Aviation Titbits
• Except you are the lead dog, the
view never changes
• The higher you go, the harder will be
the fall …. But don't worry, the view
from the top is worth it all.
• There are Old pilots and there are
Bold Pilots. However, There Are No
Old, Bold Pilots

18. • Deconstructing Leadership and Management

20. Leadership vs. Management
Leadership is about influencing people to follow
 Management focuses on maintaining systems and
processes
Managers maintain direction
 Leaders create positive change
Leadership is influence

22. Management is …..Leadership is …..
Ensuring the bar is cleared…Setting the bar…then…Raising The
bar

23. You don’t have to hold a position to be a
leader……
•“Leadership is a
•performing art – a
•collection of practices
•and behaviours rather
•than a position.”
Source: Kouzes,J and Posner, B (2005) The Leadership Challenge. John Wiley, San
Francisco. P 10.

24. Leaders!
• The manager accepts the status quo; the leader
challenges it.
• Leaders disrupt. Managers stabilize
• Leaders encourage their organizations to dance to
forms of music yet to be heard
• Failing organizations are usually over managed and
under-led.
• Manage the leadership/management split to avoid
damage!
• Leadership is for those with more attractors than
detractors

25. What Do Managers and Leaders
Do?
Lessons
• In a stable, high-competition environment, good management
is paramount
• In a dynamic, uncertain environment, leadership is key
Kotter, John P. "What Leaders Really
Do.” Harvard Business Review (1990)
Function Managers Leaders
Deciding what to do Planning and
budgeting
Setting
direction
Creating networks
of people
Organizing and
staffing
Aligning
people
Ensure that tasks
are accomplished
Controlling and
problem-solving
Motivating and
inspiring

26. Results-Based Leadership
Effective Leadership =
Attributes x Results
Skills
Values
Motives
Competencies
Behaviors
Style
Action
Programs
Projects
Goals
Initiatives
Strategy
Source - David Ulrich: Results-Based Leadership

28. What’s Different
in Turbulent
Times?

29. The “New Normal” Turbulence Characteristics

30. Some Differences
• Harsh and unforgiving economic
environment
• Number of externally-imposed
changes goes up
• Rate of externally-imposed changes
goes up
• Urgency becomes crisis
• Emphasis on “Just do it”
• Long-term sacrificed to short-term
• Unintended consequences multiply
• Downward spiral in performance
• Intense focus on financials
• Operational & behavioral domains
neglected
• Quantitative displaces qualitative
• Authority and decision-making
centralizes
• Politics become fierce
• Stakeholders neglected
© Fred Nickols 2013 30

31. YOU
Other
Stuff
Family
Friends Work
When it rains, it pours!

32. • Hidden benefits of uncertainty

33. Creativity Booster
• If necessity is the mother of invention, then
frustration is the father of creativity
• Hunger is a good cook!
• Creativity requires the courage to let go of
certainties

34. Levels change

35. Leadership Development

36. Reality Check

37. Humility, SWOT, Competitive
Advantage

38. Permanence of impermanence
• Every advantage is temporary
• No condition is permanent
• In fair weather, prepare for foul
• We never know the worth of water until the
well is dry
• Success today is no guarantee of success
tomorrow

39. EOD

40. Managing You

41. Performance equation

42. Managing YOU

45. Exercise
• Those who think they have not time for
exercise will sooner or later find time for
illness.
• When you are not practising, remember
someone somewhere is practising, and when
you meet him he will win.
• Which one will your schedule accommodate?
To exercise one hour a day or be dead 24
hours a day.

46. Health
is the state of well being in which all of
the components of health are in balance.
are broken down into six
major categories.
• To be truly healthy; you must take care of all
components.

47. Wellness: Striving for Optimal Health
• Wellness is
• Many components of health can be affected
by other components.
• If one is weak; it can affect your overall health.

48. Being the best we can in every area of
our HEALTH makes up our well-being,
also known as our WELLNESS.
6
Components
of Health
Wellnes
s=

49. •Wellness is a
continuum
ranging from
death to optimal
health.
•You can choose
your behaviors
to move closer
to optimal
health.

50. Stress – balance issue

52. Stress is not a death sentence!
• Stress is not to be avoided. To avoid all
sources of stress is impossible. . . for anyone
who is alive.
• Neither is stress always damaging
• There is no such thing as work-life balance.
Everything worth fighting for unbalances your
life.
• There are work-life choices, and you make
them, and they have consequences.

55. Stress: what doesn’t work (1)
Our bodies are designed to help us survive.
Crisis: lion is near
Body’s reaction:
send blood to
muscle groups
and RUN!

56. Stress: what doesn’t work (2)

57. The Problem with Dodging Bullets?
You’re going to get hit!

58. So what works? Choose the Right Luggage
Dodge
Bullets

59. What works? Wear Bulletproof
Armour

60. Bulletproof Armour comes from
Self Change

61. Put on your armour by changing three
things!
Attitude Thinking Behaviour

62. Stress busters
• “This too shall pass”
• - Blessed are the flexible for they shall
not be bent out of shape.
• - “Angels fly because they take themselves
lightly”
• If you don’t like something, change it. If you
cant change it, change the way you think
about it.
• Life is a bitch but every dog has its day
.

66. The way we treat a headache here is to divert
your attention to something else.
Creative diversion!

67. You can cope!
• Laughter is instant vacation
• Everything is worse when faced alone
• Sometimes you have to accept the fact that
certain things will never go back to how they
used to be
• Storms don’t last forever

70. Reframing
Changing the frame,
changes the meaning

71. Reframing
• By changing the frame, you radically change
the range of possibilities
• If you change the way you look at things, the
things you look at change

72. See the bigger picture

73. Time Management
• The bad news is time flies. The good news is
you’re the pilot.
• If you have a deadline, something must die!
• Either you run your day or your day runs you!
• Managing your time without managing your priorities is like
shooting randomly and calling whatever you hit a target
• Manage your focus, manage your energy

74. I’m sorry you had a rough day at the
office, but you have the wrong house.
Your home,
Your stronghold!

78. Your money
• Finance is the art of passing money from hand to
hand until it finally disappears
• If you can’t control your money, making more
money won’t help
• The best way to appreciate your job is to imagine
yourself without one
• You will always have plenty of money if you let
the rest of the world go buy
• The secret of success is your head up, your
overhead down

80. Critical Competencies
for times of turbulence
and uncertaintyWhen in “fight or flight” moments of an emergency,
more information leads to decreased anxiety.

84. 1 N = 3 P
(One negative
statement is equal to
three
positive statements)
Vince Covello, PhD, Speaker
National Public Health
Leadership Development
Network
April, 2003
Risk Communication Communication

85. Amazing! Words only 7%

86. Who do you like most?

87. Communication dilemmas
• Non-verbal communication will always trump words
• Speak in such a way that others love to listen to you;
listen in such a way that others love to speak to you
• A man always has two reasons for doing anything: the
good reason and the real reason
• You will never get a second chance to make a first
impression.
• In a mad world, only the mad are sane
• There is a pleasure in being mad which none but
madmen know

89. Managing people
When in “fight or flight” moments of an emergency,
more information leads to decreased anxiety.

90. The 7 Questions Employees Ask
In “Normal Environment”
1. What’s my job?
2. How am I doing?
3. What’s our job (the goals and
objectives of my work group)?
4. Does anybody care (whether or not
I do a good job...are there
consequences/rewards)?
5. How are we (our work group)
doing?
6. What are the goals of our
organization?
7. How can I help?
In “A Changing Environment”
1. Will I have the same job?
2. Can I do anything to prepare for changing job
expectations?
3. What’s happening with my work group (in
terms of job function)?
4. Will it make a difference (to my job security)
if I take a new job within the company?
5. What can we do to help redefine our work
group’s jobs?
6. What are the growth goals of our
organization?
7. What can I do to help meet the needs of our
company now?

91. What you can do

94. Parable of Change

100. Change parable (7)

103. Sometimes we don’t notice that the carpet has shifted
…until we fall over!

104. Change is dancing on the shifting carpet
•“ Instead of seeing the rug
• being pulled from under
• us, we can learn to dance
• on a shifting carpet”
•Thomas Crum, 1987

105. Change lessons
• In times of rapid change, experience could be
your worst enemy
• It is not the strongest of the species that
survives nor the most intelligent that survives.
It is the one that is most adaptable to change
• When you are through changing, you are
through

106. Leadership + Strategy in
Turbulence: the basics

107. What is Strategy
• “Strategic thinking is the art of outdoing an adversary,
knowing that the adversary is trying to do the same to
you.”
• “It is also the art of finding ways to cooperate, even
when others are motivated by self-interest, not
benevolence.
• It is the art of convincing others, and even yourself, to
do what you say. It is the art of interpreting and
revealing information.
• It is the art of putting yourself in others shoes so as to
predict and influence what they will do.”
The Art of Strategy, Dixit and Nalebuff, W.W. Norton, 2008.

110. Business and battlefield

118. The Secret
• Honour your father and mother so that your
days may be long on earth. Hone your
leadership and strategy so that your days may
be long in business
• Beware of an old man in a profession where
men usually die young
• The strategy is the secret. The secret is the
strategy

119. Leadership + Strategy in turbulence: Wicked
Problems and Organizational Dilemmas

120. Problem solving and decision making:
What is the big deal?
• Problem solving…
– Is bridging the gap between
the way things are and the
way they ought to be
– It is focused on the past
• Usually analytical
• Operational
• Done at lower levels
• A problem is
– A present unsatisfactory state that
needs to be changed to a desired
state as soon as possible
– Some deviation from the expected
standard which prevent the
achievement of objectives
• Decision making…
– Is a broader concept
– It is the act of making a choice
between two or more options
– It is focused on the future
• Often creative
• Directional
• Done at senior levels
• Problem solving is therefore
– part of decision making
– a subset of decision making

122. THE PROBLEM-SOLVING PROCESS
. 1
Resolving the problem
Satisfice: settle for a solution
that is good enough rather than
he best possible.
2
Solving the problem
Optimize: systematically
(scientifically) identify the solution
with the best combination of benefits.
3
Dissolving the problem
Idealize: change the situation
so that the problem no longer
exists.

123. 123
It’s a VUCA World!
• A problem well stated is a problem half-solved
• It is better to solve the right problem the
wrong way than to solve the wrong problem
the right way
• “We are moving from a world of problems, to
a world of dilemmas”

124. 124
VUCA
Volatility
Uncertainty
Complexity
Ambiguity
Increasing rate of
change
Less clarity about
the future
Multiplicity of
decision factors
There may be no
“right answer”
A term originated by a US
Military College to describe the
new challenges facing leaders.

125. Increasing
uncertainty about
solution to problem
TAME
WICKED
CRITICAL
CALCULATIVE/
RATIONAL
NORMATIVE/
EMOTIONAL
Soft power
COERCION
/
PHYSICAL
Hard power
COMMAND:
Provide Answer
MANAGEMENT
Organize Process
LEADERSHIP:
Ask Questions
Increasing
requirement
for
collaborative
compliance/
resolution
Wicked, Critical and Tame problems

126. WHAT KIND OF PROBLEM IS IT?
DO YOU KNOW HOW TO SOLVE THIS PROBLEM?
YES NO
NO
IS IT A CRISIS?
YES
DOES ANYONE KNOW TO SOLVE THIS?
YES NO
WICKED PROBLEM
ACT AS A LEADER
ASK QUESTIONS & USE CLUMSY SOLUTIONS
CRITICAL PROBLEM
ACT AS A COMMANDER
BE DECISIVE
PROVIDE ANSWERS
TAME PROBLEM
ACT AS A MANAGER
USE S.O.Ps.

128. Critical Problems

129. WICKED PROBLEMS
Predicaments that cannot be definitively
resolved — and attempts to fix them often
generate more trouble.
– Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber

130. SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS = “MESS”
 No unique “correct” view of the issue
 Most problems connected to other
problems
 Data often uncertain or missing
 Multiple value conflicts
 Cultural or political constraints
 Economic constraints

131.  Consequences difficult to predict
 Considerable ambiguity
 Great resistance to change
 Limited time
 No central authority
 Those seeking to solve the problem are
likely also causing it
SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS = “MESS”

132. Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu) 132

133. Rosemary Hayes (rhayes@ou.edu) 133

134. DAVID
and
GOLIATH
Can be intimidating!

135. Like cancer cells, wicked problems can
multiply unintelligently!

136. Compounded by “enemy” actions

137. Baseline

138. Strategic leadership in turbulence
Leader’s mindset and skill set

139. Leader’s mindset

140. Leader’s mind-set
• Don't Think There Are No Crocodiles Because the Water Is
Calm.
• Follow the River and You Will Find the Sea. (French Proverb)
• “If you have to eat a frog, don’t spend too long
looking at it!” (Mark Twain)
• “Anyone can eat an elephant, provided that they take it one
bite at a time”
• You cannot cross the same river twice! Don’t get burned twice
by the same flame!
• Old ideas rarely solve new problems. Get comfortable with
experimentation
• Beware of a man with only one book!
• The only job you start at the top is when you dig a grave.

141. So how do you address wicked problems?
• First, recognize th
Leader’s mindset
• Recognize that elegant solutions won’t work
• Think in shades of gray, not just black and white
• Consider the pragmatic utility of clumsy solutions
• Sometimes you have to lose the small battles in
order to win the war
• The presence of wickedness makes the
incremental/iterative approach most appealing
• Methodologies and organizational techniques can
help control the degree of wickedness

142. Collaborate

143. Ask questions, assume nothing
• What if?
• The higher you go, the more questions matter
• Why? What? How? When? Which? Who
• A paradigm shift occurs when a question is
asked inside the current paradigm that can
only be answered from outside it.
• If you do not know how to ask the right
question, you discover nothing.

144. Face it!

146. Meet Challenges Head-On
• What elephant?
• Avoiding a problem is
not likely to make it go
away
• More likely to grow out
of control if not
addressed

147. The Accountant in turbulent times

148. Mindset can become a prison!
A man in a hot air balloon realized he was lost in
southwestern Ohio. He reduced altitude and
spotted a woman below. He descended a bit
and shouted, “Excuse me, can you help me? I
promised a friend…

149. Mindset can become a prison!
…I would meet him an hour ago, but I don’t
know where I am.”
The woman replied, “You’re in a hot air balloon
hovering approximately 30 feet above the
ground. You’re between 40 and 41 degrees
north latitude and between 59 and 60 degrees
west longitude.”
“You must be an accountant,” said the
balloonist.

150. Mindset can become a prison!
“I am,” replied the woman,
“How did you know?”
“Well,” answered the balloonist, “everything you
told me is technically correct but I’ve no idea
what to make of your information and I’m still
lost. Frankly, you’ve not been much help at
all. If anything you’ve delayed my trip.”

152. Remember!
• "Not everything that can be counted counts,
and not everything that counts can be
counted." - Albert Einstein.
• A good decision is based on knowledge, not
on numbers - Plato
• Risk comes from not knowing what you are
doing - Albert Einstein.

153. Strategic issues
• Take interest in strategy. No need to think outside
the box, simply realize that thee is no box.
• Increased focus on strategic issues vis-a-vis
operational issues
• A strategic issue is a fundamental challenge
affecting the organization's mandate, mission,
product, service delivery or clients
• Unleash strategic insight on activities and
reporting

154. Drivers of Value

156. Why Strategic insight?
support the businesses units to
develop effective and
competitive strategies for
growth
Raise the profile of Finance as a
partner
Working with Operations to
leverage financial insight to
find new ways of doing
business
Leveraging the insight that comes
through understanding, not only the
numbers but the drivers behind the
figures to drive better business
performance
driving a more competitive
finance function,
establishing risk management
strategies

157. 157
Introduction
1
Managing YOU
2
Competencies
3
Strategy in
turbulence
4
Finance
function in
turbulent
times 5
Five
themes
RECAP •Aviation turbulence vs corporate
turbulence
•Deconstructing leadership and
management
•Signs of the times
•Anchor (Knowledge
+ Resilience)
•You (ready…go?)
•Time
•Stress
•Frame
•Money
•Home
•Health and Wellness•Communications
•Managing people
•Change OR DIE!
•Problem
solving and
decision
making
•Problem
solving
process
•Resolving
wicked
problems
•Problems vs
dilemmas
•Clumsy
solutions
•Drivers of value
•Insight
•Efficiency
•Control

158. Albert
Einstein’s
Theory
A = X + Y +
Z
A = Success
X = Work
Y = Play
Z = Keeping your mouth

159. 08033181225
kydadebiyi@yahoo.com