AITPM 2014 National Conference presentation

1. Miaad Khayatian
Tim Eldridge
Paul Fisher
Rapid assessment
of future transport needs
for Perth

2. Presentation structure
1. Background
2. Approach
3. Methodology
4. Outcomes
5. Summary & conclusion
6. Acknowledgement

3. Background Perth & Peel Regions
Metropolitan
Region Scheme
Grew out of
Stephenson
Hepburn Plan
Population
2014: 1.8 m
2031: 2.6 m
2052: 3.5 m

4. Background Scenarios
Directions 31 sets out 3 development scenarios:
• Polycentric city
• Development concentrated around regional
activity centres
• Dispersed
• Business as usual – suburban sprawl
• Semi-polycentric
• Hybrid of the two

5. Background Urban Economic Study
DoP appointed Pracsys to deliver economic
study of 3 scenarios.
Main cost drivers:
• Water
• Energy
• Transport
GHD undertook transport component

6. Background Urban Economic Study
Study is in two phases:
1. Proof of concept (finished)
2. More detailed analysis (under way)

7. Approach Type of model
• Time & budget constraints
• Rapid, low cost, high level output required
• Conventional modelling not suitable
Rapid assessment approach
• Trip generation
• Demand per corridor
• Existing capacity
• Required infrastructure

8. Methodology Trip generation
DoP and Pracsys generated
• 621 employment zones
• 175 residential zones
• Home – work trips (gravity model)
GHD generated
• 56 zones mapped to the Pracsys zones
• Total morning peak trip numbers

9. Methodology Travel corridors
• Spiderweb diagram
• Travel corridors v planning corridors
• Adjust trips to corridors

10. Methodology Screenlines
Screenlines placed strategically across corridors
42 screenlines in proof of concept study
140 screenlines in detailed study

11. Methodology Capacity and shortfall
At each screenline:
a) Calculate demand
From spiderweb diagram
b) Calculate existing capacity
Road, rail, bus
c) Shortfall = demand – existing capacity

12. Methodology Spreadsheet model

13. Methodology Required infrastructure
Infrastructure recommendations
informed by:
• 2031 Public Transport Master Plan
• Moving People
• Moving Freight
• Other forward planning

14. Methodology Required infrastructure
New infrastructure suggested
1.Additional road and freeway lanes where
already planned
2.Better utilisation of existing roads
3.Improved heavy rail capacity
4.Bus lanes and bus rapid transit
5.New light rail
6.New heavy rail

15. Methodology Required infrastructure

16. Outcomes PT mode share
Proof of concept 2011 2031 2052
Current 10%
Modelling outcome 40% 60%
Agency target 14% 19%

17. Outcomes Costs
Scenario
Population
Polycentric
($ billion)
Semi-polycentric
($ billion)
Dispersed
($ billion)
Current to
2.6 million
14.86 17.01 14.18
2.6 to 3.5
million
17.90 21.60 34.84
Total 32.76 38.61 49.02

18. Outcomes Some key points
• CBD environs will remain largest
employment centre
• Up to 2.6 M population, current PT
planning is adequate
• After 2.6 M, new links needed rapidly
• Northern suburbs railway will hit capacity
before 2031 – new East Wanneroo railway
required
• North / central corridor (Mirrabooka to
CBD) is a weak link

19. Outcomes Some key points
• Legacy railways have excess capacity
• Extra capacity needs to be achieved from
existing roads
• Spatial location of population and
employment is key to good transport
outcomes.

20. Conclusion Proof of concept
Rapid, low cost, high level assessment of
infrastructure requirement
• Three development scenarios with two
population targets
• Method relies on simple arithmetic and
engineering judgement – agreed with
transport agencies
• Proof of concept model is coarse-grained
but results pass sanity test
• Mode share skewed to PT

21. Conclusion Next steps
• More fine-grained analysis under way
• Revised population / employment
distribution
• More zones, corridors and screenlines
• Mode share needs attention

22. Acknowledgements
• Department of Planning, Western Australia
• Pracsys
• Department of Transport
• Public Transport Authority
• Main Roads Western Australia

23. Email: paul.fisher@ghd.com
www.ghd.com