The Triple Threat | Article on Global Resession | Harsh Kumar
Before the Open April 13 2017
1.
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Overseas/Overnight Markets
U.S. stock index futures fell, taking a cue from European and Asian
markets, as worries over global growth prospects and the outcome of
Greece’s private-sector bond swap later this week weigh on sentiment.
There is no U.S. economic data on the docket today.
European stocks dropped, with banks and resource stocks among the
`largest detractors. A report released this morning showed a 0.3% Q/Q
contraction in the euro-area economy in Q4, confirming an initial estimate
published on February 15. Large declines in investment, exports and
consumer spending were to blame for the overall GDP contraction. Also
weighing on investors was a memo from the Institute of International
Finance that warned that a disorderly default would cause the euro zone
more than 1 trillion euros ($1.36 trillion) in damage, Reuters reported. The
report also stated that a default would likely force Italy and Spain to seek
aid to prevent being engulfed in the region’s debt crisis.
Private investors that have declared their participation in Greece’s debt
restructuring hold about 20% of the bonds involved in a swap, the creditors’
stering committee said yesterday. The goal of the swap, which runs
through March 8, is to reduce the amount of privately-held Greek debt by
53.5% and help secure Greece’s second rescue package.
Asian stocks fell sharply, with miners among the top declines, following
global markets lower on growth concerns. The Hang Seng shed 2.2%,
while the Shanghai Composite fell 1.4%. Japan’s Nikkei gave up a more
modest 0.6%.
North American Market Highlights & Headlines
Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T) reported a 143% increase in quarterly earnings
on Monday as margins improved on lower costs. Aecon reported EPS of
$0.49, up from $0.20 a year ago. Revenue in the quarter was $790 million,
down from $841 million, and well shy of the $859 million consensus
estimate. Aecon's backlog stood at $2.39 billion at December 31, 2011.
Futures Market
Market Chg Last % Chg
S&P 500 -5 2,336 (0.22)
NASDAQ -8 5,365 (0.14)
Dow Jones -25 20,491 (0.12)
Daily Market Summary
Market Chg Last % Chg Ytd Chg
S&P/TSX -79 15,648 (0.50) 2.36
Venture 1 830 0.09 8.84
Dow Jones -59 20,592 (0.29) 4.20
S&P 500 -9 2,345 (0.38) 4.74
NASDAQ -31 5,836 (0.52) 8.42
Global Markets
Market Chg Last % Chg Ytd Chg
DAX -40 12,115 (0.33) 5.52
FTSE -38 7,311 (0.52) 2.35
Stoxx 600 -2 380 (0.43) 5.21
Nikkei -126 18,427 (0.68) (3.60)
Hang Seng -52 24,262 (0.21) 10.28
Commodities
Chg Last % Chg Ytd Chg
Gold -$0.10 $1,286.83 (0.01) 11.68
Oil $0.17 $53.28 0.32 (4.94)
Natural Gas -$0.03 $3.16 (0.82) (15.12)
F/X Rates
CDN$ Buys US$ Buys
US$ 0.7553 CDN$ 1.3240
Yen 82.44 Yen 109.16
Euro 0.7107 Euro 0.9409
Bond Yields
Market Chg Last % Chg Ytd Chg
CAN 3-MO 0.02 0.55 3.77 19.57
CAN 10-YR 0.00 1.51 0.13 (12.26)
U.S. 3-MO 0.00 0.80 (0.01) 61.34
U.S. 10-YR 0.00 2.24 (0.08) (8.46)
All charts and data are sourced from
Bloomberg Finance L.P.
This publication is for distribution to Canadian
clients only.
Please refer to Appendix A of this report for
important disclosure information.
Overseas and Overnight Markets
U.S. stock index futures are pointing to a lower open on the back of President Trump's
comments on the dollar strength. On the data front, the jobless claims came out at 234k,
which is lower than the consensus estimate of 245k.
Asian stocks ended mixed after the dollar stumbled and President Donald Trump's
comments that his administration will not label China a currency manipulator. The Nikkei
225 Index fell for a third consecutive session amid a stronger yen. The Shanghai
Composite Index ended flat despite positive trade data while Hong Kong's Hang Seng
Index was down 0.21%.
European stocks are drifting lower as the dollar sagged following U.S. President Donald
Trump's comments that the greenback is getting too strong and he preferred the Federal
Reserve to keep interest rates low.
Company Headlines
Loblaw Inc. (L-T) said that it plans to open 30 new stores and renovate more than 500
existing stores as it continues to adapt to changes in the food retail sector. The grocery
and pharmacy giant said the investment includes the continued roll out of its Click &
Collect e-commerce, improved health and wellness services, and the inclusion of fresh
food at select Shoppers Drug Mart locations. Loblaw said the moves will invest about
$1.3 billion into the economy and create an estimated 10,000 retail, trade and
construction jobs.
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM-N) said its first-quarter profit rose 17% as a boost from
trading helped results for the nation’s biggest bank by assets. The New York bank
reported a profit of US$6.45 billion, or US$1.65 a share. That compared with a profit of
US$5.52 billion, or US$1.35 a share, in the same period of 2016. J.P. Morgan’s trading
revenue increased 13% to US$5.82 billion from US$5.17 billion in the first quarter of
2016. Fixed-income trading revenue climbed 17% thanks in part to higher activity in
trading government bonds and other securities closely tied to interest rates. Equities
trading revenue edged up 1.9%.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-N) plans to sell nine million shares of Wells Fargo
(WFC-N) to keep its ownership below 10%. Berkshire sold 7.1 million shares as
of Wednesday and intends to sell another 1.9 million in the near future. According to the
company, these sales are not being made because of investment or valuation
considerations. Berkshire didn’t sell any Wells Fargo shares following the bank’s sales-
tactics scandal last fall and Berkshire's Chairman Warren Buffett has praised Wells
Fargo’s current chief executive.
Sources: Marketwatch, Bloomberg, The Canadian Press, WSJ, Globe and Mail, Financial Post,
NYT, FactSet,Thomson Reuters, StreetAccount, CNBC, RTT News)
April 13, 2017
2. Before the Open April 13, 2017
Page 2
Canadian Equities Upgrades - March 6
Weekly Canada Economic Calendar - April 10 to April 14, 2017
Date/Time Event Period Consensus Actual Prior
04/10/2017 08:15 Housing Starts Mar 214.5k 253.7k 214.3k
04/10/2017 10:00 Bloomberg Nanos Confidence 7-Apr -- 58.9 58.7
04/12/2017 08:30 Teranet/National Bank HPI MoM Mar -- 0.90% 1.00%
04/12/2017 08:30 Teranet/National Bank HP Index Mar -- 204.05 202.25
04/12/2017 08:30 Teranet/National Bank HPI YoY Mar -- 13.50% 13.40%
04/12/2017 10:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision 12-Apr 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
04/12/2017 10:00
Bank of Canada Releases April
Monetary Policy Report
04/13/2017 08:30 New Housing Price Index MoM Feb -- 0.40% 0.10%
04/13/2017 08:30 New Housing Price Index YoY Feb -- 3.30% 3.10%
04/13/2017 08:30 Manufacturing Sales MoM Feb -0.70% -0.20% 0.60%
S&P/TSX Daily Performance
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17
Leaders - Prior Session
Company Ticker % Change
BlackBerry Ltd BB-T 15.38
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN-T 6.27
Shaw Communications Inc SJR/B-T 4.81
Interfor Corp IFP-T 3.17
Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd KL-T 2.91
Laggards - Prior Session
Company Ticker % Change
Bombardier Inc BBD/B-T -6.33
Teck Resources Ltd TECK/B-T -5.87
Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM-T -5.69
Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp LIF-T -5.20
Bonavista Energy Corp BNP-T -5.16
Canadian Equity Upgrades
Birchcliff Energy Upgraded to Top Pick at Cormark
Blackberry Upgraded to Sector Perform at Scotia
Canadian Equity Downgrades
N/A
Today's Earnings – Canada
DealNet Capital Corp -$0.01, Madalena Energy Inc -$0.03, Rye Patch Gold Corp
$0.01, Cronos Group Inc -$0.01, Leucrotta Exploration Inc -$0.01
3. Before the Open April 13, 2017
Page 3
Weekly U.S. Economic Calendar - April 10 to April 14, 2017
Date/Time Event Period Consensus Actual Prior
04/10/2017 10:00 Labor Market Conditions Index Change Mar 0.8 0.4 1.5
04/11/2017 06:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Mar 104.7 104.7 105.3
04/11/2017 10:00 JOLTS Job Openings Feb 5650 5743 5625
04/12/2017 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 7-Apr -- 1.50% -1.60%
04/12/2017 08:30 Import Price Index MoM Mar -0.20% -0.20% 0.40%
04/12/2017 08:30 Import Price Index YoY Mar 4.00% 4.20% 4.80%
04/12/2017 08:30 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM Mar 0.00% 0.20% 0.30%
04/12/2017 08:30 Export Price Index MoM Mar 0.00% 0.20% 0.30%
04/12/2017 08:30 Export Price Index YoY Mar -- 3.60% 3.20%
04/12/2017 14:00 Monthly Budget Statement Mar -$167.0b -$176.2b -$108.0b
04/13/2017 08:30 PPI Final Demand MoM Mar 0.00% -0.10% 0.30%
04/13/2017 08:30 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Mar 0.20% 0.00% 0.30%
04/13/2017 08:30 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM Mar 0.20% 0.10% 0.30%
04/13/2017 08:30 PPI Final Demand YoY Mar 2.40% 2.30% 2.20%
04/13/2017 08:30 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Mar 1.80% 1.60% 1.50%
04/13/2017 08:30 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY Mar -- 1.70% 1.80%
04/13/2017 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims 8-Apr 245k 234k 235k
04/13/2017 08:30 Continuing Claims 1-Apr 2024k 2028k 2028k
04/13/2017 09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 9-Apr -- -- 50.2
04/13/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. Sentiment Apr P 96.5 -- 96.9
04/13/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. Current Conditions Apr P -- -- 113.2
04/13/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. Expectations Apr P -- -- 86.5
04/13/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Apr P -- -- 2.50%
04/13/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Apr P -- -- 2.40%
S&P 500 Daily Performance
1950
2050
2150
2250
2350
2450
Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17
Leaders - Prior Session
Company Ticker % Change
HP Inc HPQ-US 2.74
DXC Technology Co DXC-US 2.49
Tyson Foods Inc TSN-US 2.23
Whole Foods Market Inc WFM-US 1.70
PepsiCo Inc PEP-US 1.68
Laggards - Prior Session
Company Ticker % Change
Tractor Supply Co TSCO-US -8.32
Fastenal Co FAST-US -8.05
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX-US -5.43
Nucor Corp NUE-US -4.33
Broadcom Ltd AVGO-US -3.84
U.S. Equity Upgrades
NuStar Raised to Neutral at Credit Suisse
Skywest Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James
U.S. Equity Downgrades
Automotive Properties Cut to Hold at Industrial Alliance
Today's Earnings – U.S.
First Republic Bank/CA $1.01, PNC Financial Services Group Inc/The $1.84,
JPMorgan Chase & Co $1.52, Wells Fargo & Co $0.97, Citigroup Inc $1.24, Tonix
Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp -$1.30
4. Before the Open April 13, 2017
Page 4
Appendix A - Important Information
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5. Before the Open April 13, 2017
Page 5
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