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The Independent Market Observer
Economic Risk Factor Update
April 2024
Source: Institute for Supply Management, Haver Analytics
As of 4/3/2024
ISM Services: Services PMI Composite Index
Seasonally adjusted, 50+ = Increasing
The Service
Sector
Risk
Level
The Service Sector continued
• Service sector confidence fell in March, as the index dropped
from 52.6 in February to 51.4 in March.
• This marks two consecutive months of falling confidence.
• Despite the decline, service sector confidence still sits in
expansionary territory.
Risk
Level
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
As of 4/5/2024
All Employees: Total Nonfarm
% Change – Year to Year, Seasonally adjusted
Private
Employment:
Annual
Change
Risk
Level
Private Employment: Annual Change continued
• 303,000 jobs were added in March, following the strong
270,000 jobs that were added in February.
• This marks 39 consecutive months of job growth, highlighting
the current health of the labor market despite the challenges
created by inflation and the tight labor supply.
Risk
Level
Source: Haver Analytics
As of 4/1/2024
Spread Between 10-Year U.S. Treasury and 3-Month U.S. Treasury
Yield Curve
(10-Year Minus
3-Month
Treasury Rates)
Risk
Level
Yield Curve (10-Year Minus 3-Month Treasury Rates)
continued
• The yield curve inversion widened in March, due to a drop in
long-term interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield fell from
4.25% to 4.20%.
• The 3-month Treasury yield rose from 5.45% at the end of
February to 5.46% at the end of March.
• This marks 18 consecutive months with an inverted
3-month 10-year yield curve. While this doesn’t guarantee that
the economy will enter a recession, it’s a widely monitored
technical signal that could indicate further slowdowns.
Risk
Level
Source: The Conference Board/Haver Analytics
As of 3/26/2024
Conference Board: Consumer Confidence
% Change – Year to Year Seasonally adjusted, 1985=100
Consumer
Confidence:
Annual
Change
Risk
Level
Consumer Confidence: Annual Change continued
• Consumer confidence fell from 104.8 in February to 104.7
in March.
• Despite the decline, consumer confidence improved 0.67
percent on a year-over-year basis in March.
Risk
Level
Conclusion: Growth Continues but Risks Remain
• The data releases in March showed signs of continued
economic growth.
• The strong hiring growth signaled continued demand
for workers.
• Given the declines during the month, service sector and
consumer confidence are worth monitoring going forward.
• The path of recovery remains uncertain in the short term, and
caution is still warranted.
Risk
Level
Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-
looking statements that are based on our reasonable
expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions.
Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future
performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties,
which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not
indicative of future results.
Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against
loss in declining markets. All indices are unmanaged, and
investors cannot invest directly in an index.
The information contained herein is provided for
informational purposes only and is based upon sources
believed to be reliable. No guarantee is made as to the
completeness or accuracy of the information.
Disclosure

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Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]

  • 1. The Independent Market Observer Economic Risk Factor Update April 2024
  • 2. Source: Institute for Supply Management, Haver Analytics As of 4/3/2024 ISM Services: Services PMI Composite Index Seasonally adjusted, 50+ = Increasing The Service Sector Risk Level
  • 3. The Service Sector continued • Service sector confidence fell in March, as the index dropped from 52.6 in February to 51.4 in March. • This marks two consecutive months of falling confidence. • Despite the decline, service sector confidence still sits in expansionary territory. Risk Level
  • 4. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics As of 4/5/2024 All Employees: Total Nonfarm % Change – Year to Year, Seasonally adjusted Private Employment: Annual Change Risk Level
  • 5. Private Employment: Annual Change continued • 303,000 jobs were added in March, following the strong 270,000 jobs that were added in February. • This marks 39 consecutive months of job growth, highlighting the current health of the labor market despite the challenges created by inflation and the tight labor supply. Risk Level
  • 6. Source: Haver Analytics As of 4/1/2024 Spread Between 10-Year U.S. Treasury and 3-Month U.S. Treasury Yield Curve (10-Year Minus 3-Month Treasury Rates) Risk Level
  • 7. Yield Curve (10-Year Minus 3-Month Treasury Rates) continued • The yield curve inversion widened in March, due to a drop in long-term interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.25% to 4.20%. • The 3-month Treasury yield rose from 5.45% at the end of February to 5.46% at the end of March. • This marks 18 consecutive months with an inverted 3-month 10-year yield curve. While this doesn’t guarantee that the economy will enter a recession, it’s a widely monitored technical signal that could indicate further slowdowns. Risk Level
  • 8. Source: The Conference Board/Haver Analytics As of 3/26/2024 Conference Board: Consumer Confidence % Change – Year to Year Seasonally adjusted, 1985=100 Consumer Confidence: Annual Change Risk Level
  • 9. Consumer Confidence: Annual Change continued • Consumer confidence fell from 104.8 in February to 104.7 in March. • Despite the decline, consumer confidence improved 0.67 percent on a year-over-year basis in March. Risk Level
  • 10. Conclusion: Growth Continues but Risks Remain • The data releases in March showed signs of continued economic growth. • The strong hiring growth signaled continued demand for workers. • Given the declines during the month, service sector and consumer confidence are worth monitoring going forward. • The path of recovery remains uncertain in the short term, and caution is still warranted. Risk Level
  • 11. Certain sections of this commentary contain forward- looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. All indices are unmanaged, and investors cannot invest directly in an index. The information contained herein is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon sources believed to be reliable. No guarantee is made as to the completeness or accuracy of the information. Disclosure