Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No 231, April 2024
Before the open March 7 2017
1.
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Overseas/Overnight Markets
U.S. stock index futures fell, taking a cue from European and Asian
markets, as worries over global growth prospects and the outcome of
Greece’s private-sector bond swap later this week weigh on sentiment.
There is no U.S. economic data on the docket today.
European stocks dropped, with banks and resource stocks among the
`largest detractors. A report released this morning showed a 0.3% Q/Q
contraction in the euro-area economy in Q4, confirming an initial estimate
published on February 15. Large declines in investment, exports and
consumer spending were to blame for the overall GDP contraction. Also
weighing on investors was a memo from the Institute of International
Finance that warned that a disorderly default would cause the euro zone
more than 1 trillion euros ($1.36 trillion) in damage, Reuters reported. The
report also stated that a default would likely force Italy and Spain to seek
aid to prevent being engulfed in the region’s debt crisis.
Private investors that have declared their participation in Greece’s debt
restructuring hold about 20% of the bonds involved in a swap, the creditors’
stering committee said yesterday. The goal of the swap, which runs
through March 8, is to reduce the amount of privately-held Greek debt by
53.5% and help secure Greece’s second rescue package.
Asian stocks fell sharply, with miners among the top declines, following
global markets lower on growth concerns. The Hang Seng shed 2.2%,
while the Shanghai Composite fell 1.4%. Japan’s Nikkei gave up a more
modest 0.6%.
North American Market Highlights & Headlines
Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T) reported a 143% increase in quarterly earnings
on Monday as margins improved on lower costs. Aecon reported EPS of
$0.49, up from $0.20 a year ago. Revenue in the quarter was $790 million,
down from $841 million, and well shy of the $859 million consensus
estimate. Aecon's backlog stood at $2.39 billion at December 31, 2011.
Futures Market
Market Chg Last % Chg
S&P 500 -4 2,371 (0.17)
NASDAQ -11 5,351 (0.20)
Dow Jones -29 20,928 (0.14)
Daily Market Summary
Market Chg Last % Chg Ytd Chg
S&P/TSX 21 15,630 0.14 2.24
Venture -8 810 (1.00) 6.28
Dow Jones -51 20,954 (0.24) 6.03
S&P 500 -8 2,375 (0.33) 6.10
NASDAQ -22 5,849 (0.37) 8.66
Global Markets
Market Chg Last % Chg Ytd Chg
DAX 12 11,971 0.10 4.27
FTSE 4 7,354 0.05 2.96
Stoxx 600 -1 373 (0.14) 3.14
Nikkei -35 19,344 (0.18) 1.20
Hang Seng 85 23,681 0.36 7.64
Commodities
Chg Last % Chg Ytd Chg
Gold -$3.26 $1,222.03 (0.27) 6.05
Oil $0.30 $53.50 0.56 (3.48)
Natural Gas -$0.08 $2.82 (2.91) (24.30)
F/X Rates
CDN$ Buys US$ Buys
US$ 0.7458 CDN$ 1.3408
Yen 85.03 Yen 114.00
Euro 0.7051 Euro 0.9454
Bond Yields
Market Chg Last % Chg Ytd Chg
CAN 3-MO -0.01 0.48 (2.04) 4.35
CAN 10-YR 0.01 1.72 0.64 (0.12)
U.S. 3-MO 0.01 0.73 1.41 47.02
U.S. 10-YR 0.00 2.50 0.15 2.42
All charts and data are sourced from
Bloomberg Finance L.P.
This publication is for distribution to Canadian
clients only.
Please refer to Appendix A of this report for
important disclosure information.
Overseas and Overnight Markets
U.S. stock index futures are pointing to a lower open amidst growing concerns over U.S.
President Donald Trump's ability to implement economic policies. His legislation to
repeal and replace Obamacare received immediate criticism from the Democrats.
Asia stocks closed mixed as the U.S. started to take precautions to deal with North
Korea's recent missiles launch. China's Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong's
Hang Seng Index both closed higher despite concern of China slower growth. The Nikkei
225 Index dropped 0.18% as weakness in banks stocks outweighs oil stocks' strong
performance.
European stocks are lackluster on the back of French political uncertainty and mixed
corporate earnings. On the data front, German factory orders decreased 7.4% in
January from the previous month, reversing December's 5.2% increase.
Company Headlines
PrivateBancorp (PVTB-O) has moved up the date for its shareholders to vote on a deal
that could see CIBC (CM-T) buy the Chicago-based lender. The U.S. bank announced
that its special meeting to vote on the acquisition is now expected to be held on or about
May 4. Previously, a shareholder vote scheduled for last December was postponed to
June 29 after shares of PrivateBancorp rose above the value implied in the proposed
takeover deal, which was announced last June.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM-N) plans to spend about $20 billion on refineries,
petrochemical plants and other projects in and around the Gulf of Mexico. Exxon
Mobil outlined the 11-project spending plan, largely aimed at creating new outlets for
U.S. natural gas. It came after a meeting with analysts last week in which he said
Exxon is poised to nearly double its production from U.S. shale basins in the next
decade.
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM-N) and Salesforce.com Inc (CRM-
N) agreed to mingle their artificial-intelligence technologies in a bid to boost sales of
data-analytics offerings. The companies announced plans to offer integrated AI services
that weave the broad human-like conversation and learning capabilities of
IBM’s Watson with Salesforce’s more sales-oriented Einstein technology. IBM and
Salesforce aren’t sharing revenue, but rather plan to continue selling their AI services
independently.
Sources: Marketwatch, Bloomberg, The Canadian Press, WSJ, Globe and Mail, Financial Post,
NYT, FactSet,Thomson Reuters, StreetAccount, CNBC, RTT News)
March 7, 2017
2. Before the Open March 7, 2017
Page 2
Canadian Equities Upgrades - March 6
Weekly Canada Economic Calendar - March 06 to March 10, 2017
Date/Time Event Period Consensus Actual Prior
03/06/2017 10:00 Bloomberg Nanos Confidence 3-Mar -- 57.4 58.1
03/07/2017 08:30 Int'l Merchandise Trade Jan 0.75b 0.81b 0.45b
03/07/2017 10:00 Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA Feb 58.5 -- 57.2
03/08/2017 08:15 Housing Starts Feb 200.0k -- 207.4k
03/08/2017 08:30 Labor Productivity QoQ 4Q 0.40% -- 1.20%
03/08/2017 08:30 Building Permits MoM Jan 3.00% -- -6.60%
03/09/2017 08:30 Capacity Utilization Rate 4Q 82.50% -- 81.90%
03/09/2017 08:30 New Housing Price Index MoM Jan 0.10% -- 0.10%
03/09/2017 08:30 New Housing Price Index YoY Jan -- -- 3.00%
03/10/2017 08:30 Unemployment Rate Feb 6.80% -- 6.80%
03/10/2017 08:30 Net Change in Employment Feb -5.0k -- 48.3k
03/10/2017 08:30 Full Time Employment Change Feb -- -- 15.8
03/10/2017 08:30 Part Time Employment Change Feb -- -- 32.4
03/10/2017 08:30 Participation Rate Feb -- -- 65.9
S&P/TSX Daily Performance
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17
Leaders - Prior Session
Company Ticker % Change
Kelt Exploration Ltd KEL-T 5.34
Northland Power Inc NPI-T 4.60
Baytex Energy Corp BTE-T 4.57
ShawCor Ltd SCL-T 4.06
Peyto Exploration & Development CorpPEY-T 3.88
Laggards - Prior Session
Company Ticker % Change
Pretium Resources Inc PVG-T -6.91
B2Gold Corp BTO-T -6.47
Torex Gold Resources Inc TXG-T -6.13
IAMGOLD Corp IMG-T -5.91
Endeavour Mining Corp EDV-T -5.89
Canadian Equity Upgrades
Canadian Utilities Raised to Outperform at National Bank
Scotiabank Raised to Outperform at CIBC
Canadian Equity Downgrades
Major Drilling Cut to Hold at Paradigm Capital
Today's Earnings – Canada
Enercare Inc $0.15, Baytex Energy Corp -$0.13, Imvescor Restaurant Group Inc
$0.05, Mogo Finance Technology Inc -$0.27, EcoSynthetix Inc -$0.03, Aecon Group
Inc $0.40, Great Canadian Gaming Corp $0.31, Cardiome Pharma Corp -$0.16, DH
Corp $0.56, Whitecap Resources Inc $0.04, Centric Health Corp -$0.01, CanWel
Building Materials Group Ltd $0.04, Trilogy Energy Corp -$0.11, Alaris Royalty Corp
$0.38, Tourmaline Oil Corp $0.16, Gibson Energy Inc -$0.02, American Hotel Income
Properties REIT LP $0.11, ECN Capital Corp $0.07, Cargojet Inc $0.75, Chinook
Energy Inc -$0.03, Raging River Exploration Inc $0.05, Agellan Commercial Real
Estate Investment Trust $0.29
3. Before the Open March 7, 2017
Page 3
Weekly U.S. Economic Calendar - March 06 to March 10, 2017
Date/Time Event Period Consensus Actual Prior
03/06/2017 10:00 Factory Orders Jan 1.00% 1.20% 1.30%
03/06/2017 10:00 Factory Orders Ex Trans Jan -- 0.30% 2.40%
03/06/2017 10:00 Durable Goods Orders Jan F 1.00% 2.00% 1.80%
03/06/2017 10:00 Durables Ex Transportation Jan F 0.10% 0.00% -0.20%
03/06/2017 10:00 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Jan F -- -0.10% -0.40%
03/06/2017 10:00 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Jan F -- -0.40% -0.60%
03/07/2017 08:30 Trade Balance Jan -$48.5b -$48.5b -$44.3b
03/07/2017 15:00 Consumer Credit Jan $17.250b -- $14.160b
03/08/2017 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 3-Mar -- -- 5.80%
03/08/2017 08:15 ADP Employment Change Feb 189k -- 246k
03/08/2017 08:30 Nonfarm Productivity 4Q F 1.50% -- 1.30%
03/08/2017 08:30 Unit Labor Costs 4Q F 1.60% -- 1.70%
03/08/2017 08:30 Revisions: Productivity and Costs
03/08/2017 10:00 Wholesale Inventories MoM Jan F -0.10% -- -0.10%
03/08/2017 10:00 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Jan 0.50% -- 2.60%
03/09/2017 07:30 Challenger Job Cuts YoY Feb -- -- -38.80%
03/09/2017 08:30 Import Price Index MoM Feb 0.10% -- 0.40%
03/09/2017 08:30 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM Feb 0.10% -- 0.00%
03/09/2017 08:30 Import Price Index YoY Feb 4.40% -- 3.70%
03/09/2017 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims 4-Mar 238k -- 223k
03/09/2017 08:30 Continuing Claims 25-Feb 2062k -- 2066k
03/09/2017 09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 5-Mar -- -- 49.8
03/09/2017 12:00 Household Change in Net Worth 4Q -- -- $1593b
03/10/2017 08:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Feb 190k -- 227k
03/10/2017 08:30 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision Feb -- -- --
03/10/2017 08:30 Change in Private Payrolls Feb 190k -- 237k
03/10/2017 08:30 Change in Manufact. Payrolls Feb 9k -- 5k
03/10/2017 08:30 Unemployment Rate Feb 4.70% -- 4.80%
03/10/2017 08:30 Average Hourly Earnings MoM Feb 0.30% -- 0.10%
03/10/2017 08:30 Average Hourly Earnings YoY Feb 2.80% -- 2.50%
03/10/2017 08:30 Average Weekly Hours All Employees Feb 34.4 -- 34.4
03/10/2017 08:30 Labor Force Participation Rate Feb -- -- 62.90%
03/10/2017 08:30 Underemployment Rate Feb -- -- 9.40%
03/10/2017 14:00 Monthly Budget Statement Feb -$170.0b -- $51.3b
S&P 500 Daily Performance
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17
Leaders - Prior Session
Company Ticker % Change
Range Resources Corp RRC-US 4.13
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp COG-US 3.53
Southwestern Energy Co SWN-US 2.98
Netflix Inc NFLX-US 2.01
Marathon Oil Corp MRO-US 1.79
Laggards - Prior Session
Company Ticker % Change
Kohl's Corp KSS UN -4.69
CSRA Inc CSRA UN -4.28
Frontier Communications Corp FTR UW -3.83
First Solar Inc FSLR UW -3.70
Transocean Ltd RIG UN -3.55
U.S. Equity Upgrades
Stericycle Upgraded to Neutral at Goldman
Steven Madden Added to Value Creator SMID Focus List at Citi
U.S. Equity Downgrades
Novartis Cut to Underperform at BNP Paribas
Today's Earnings – U.S.
Navistar International Corp -$0.47, Dick's Sporting Goods Inc $1.30, Lumos Networks
Corp $0.05, Urban Outfitters Inc $0.56, H&R Block Inc -$0.53
4. Before the Open March 7, 2017
Page 4
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5. Before the Open March 7, 2017
Page 5
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