Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine No 231, April 2024
Before the open February 21 2017
1.
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Overseas/Overnight Markets
U.S. stock index futures fell, taking a cue from European and Asian
markets, as worries over global growth prospects and the outcome of
Greece’s private-sector bond swap later this week weigh on sentiment.
There is no U.S. economic data on the docket today.
European stocks dropped, with banks and resource stocks among the
`largest detractors. A report released this morning showed a 0.3% Q/Q
contraction in the euro-area economy in Q4, confirming an initial estimate
published on February 15. Large declines in investment, exports and
consumer spending were to blame for the overall GDP contraction. Also
weighing on investors was a memo from the Institute of International
Finance that warned that a disorderly default would cause the euro zone
more than 1 trillion euros ($1.36 trillion) in damage, Reuters reported. The
report also stated that a default would likely force Italy and Spain to seek
aid to prevent being engulfed in the region’s debt crisis.
Private investors that have declared their participation in Greece’s debt
restructuring hold about 20% of the bonds involved in a swap, the creditors’
stering committee said yesterday. The goal of the swap, which runs
through March 8, is to reduce the amount of privately-held Greek debt by
53.5% and help secure Greece’s second rescue package.
Asian stocks fell sharply, with miners among the top declines, following
global markets lower on growth concerns. The Hang Seng shed 2.2%,
while the Shanghai Composite fell 1.4%. Japan’s Nikkei gave up a more
modest 0.6%.
North American Market Highlights & Headlines
Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T) reported a 143% increase in quarterly earnings
on Monday as margins improved on lower costs. Aecon reported EPS of
$0.49, up from $0.20 a year ago. Revenue in the quarter was $790 million,
down from $841 million, and well shy of the $859 million consensus
estimate. Aecon's backlog stood at $2.39 billion at December 31, 2011.
Futures Market
Market Chg Last % Chg
S&P 500 5 2,353 0.20
NASDAQ 10 5,336 0.19
Dow Jones 66 20,654 0.32
Daily Market Summary
Market Chg Last % Chg Ytd Chg
S&P/TSX -26 15,839 (0.16) 3.60
Venture 1 844 0.07 10.70
Dow Jones 4 20,624 0.02 4.36
S&P 500 4 2,351 0.17 5.02
NASDAQ 24 5,839 0.41 8.46
Global Markets
Market Chg Last % Chg Ytd Chg
DAX 59 11,886 0.50 3.53
FTSE -16 7,284 (0.22) 1.98
Stoxx 600 1 372 0.33 3.00
Nikkei 130 19,381 0.68 1.40
Hang Seng -182 23,964 (0.76) 8.92
Commodities
Chg Last % Chg Ytd Chg
Gold -$8.78 $1,229.72 (0.71) 6.72
Oil $0.92 $54.32 1.69 (0.62)
Natural Gas -$0.09 $2.75 (3.17) (26.24)
F/X Rates
CDN$ Buys US$ Buys
US$ 0.7612 CDN$ 1.3137
Yen 86.56 Yen 113.72
Euro 0.7225 Euro 0.9493
Bond Yields
Market Chg Last % Chg Ytd Chg
CAN 3-MO 0.02 0.48 4.35 4.35
CAN 10-YR 0.05 1.76 2.63 2.03
U.S. 3-MO 0.00 0.51 - 3.06
U.S. 10-YR 0.04 2.46 1.70 0.47
All charts and data are sourced from
Bloomberg Finance L.P.
This publication is for distribution to Canadian
clients only.
Please refer to Appendix A of this report for
important disclosure information.
Overseas and Overnight Markets
U.S. stock index futures are pointing to a higher opening on the first trading day of the
week following the Presidents' Day holiday, with investors focused on recently released
earnings reports and upcoming economic data. On the data front, Markit is scheduled to
release its preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Indexes on manufacturing and services
activity in February at 9:45 a.m. Eastern Time.
Asian markets were mixed on Tuesday with the Japanese Nikkei Index gaining 0.7% as
exporters saw fractional gains on the back of a relatively weaker yen. Chinese mainland
markets finished higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.4%, while in Hong
Kong, the Hang Sang Index fell 0.8%.
European stocks are trading in positive territory after regional economic activity
unexpectedly rose to an almost six-year high. The region's Composite Purchasing
Managers' Index for February climbed to 56.0 from 54.4 in January according to IHS
Markit, with most of the rise attributable to the largest two economies in the region,
Germany and France, both reporting PMI readings above 56.0 for the month.
Company Headlines
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR-T), owner of the Burger King and Tim
Hortons fast-food chains, is reportedly nearing a deal to buy Popeyes Louisiana
Kitchen Inc. (PLKI-Q). The deal, which will likely value Popeyes at more than US$1.7
billion, is a bet by Oakville, Ont,-based Restaurant Brands that it can use its international
reach to introduce Popeyes' Louisiana-style fried chicken and buttermilk biscuits to more
diners globally. It also represents a small consolation prize for Restaurant Brands
shareholder 3G Capital, which lost a US$143 billion bid this week to merge its biggest
holding, food conglomerate Kraft Heinz Co (KHC-Q), with consumer products firm
Unilever Plc (UL-N).
Verizon Communications Inc (VZ-N) announced that it agreed to acquire the core
internet business of Yahoo Inc (YHOO-Q) for US$4.48 billion, about US$350 million
less than the original price. The deal will combine Yahoo's search, email and messenger
assets as well as advertising technology tools with Verizon's AOL unit. Under the
amended terms, Yahoo and Verizon will split cash liabilities related to some government
investigations and third-party litigation related to the breaches. Yahoo will continue to be
responsible for liabilities from shareholder lawsuits and Securities and Exchange
Commission investigations.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT-N) posted better-than-expected U.S. sales, aided by more
customer visits to stores and accelerating online activity. Wal-Mart said sales at U.S.
stores open at least a year rose 1.8%, excluding fuel price fluctuations, during the fourth
quarter ended on Jan. 31. Net income attributable to Wal-Mart fell to US$3.76 billion in
the fourth quarter ended Jan. 31 from US$4.57 billion a year earlier. Excluding items,
earnings per share of US$1.30 exceeded the analysts' average estimate of US$1.29,
according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Sources: Marketwatch, Bloomberg, The Canadian Press, WSJ, Globe and Mail, Financial Post,
NYT, FactSet,Thomson Reuters, StreetAccount, CNBC, RTT News)
February 21, 2017
2. Before the Open February 21, 2017
Page 2
Canadian Equities Upgrades - March 6
Weekly Canada Economic Calendar - February 20 to February 24, 2017
Date/Time Event Period Consensus Actual Prior
02/22/2017 08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Dec 0.60% -- 0.10%
02/22/2017 08:30 Retail Sales MoM Dec 0.00% -- 0.20%
02/23/2017 CFIB Business Barometer Feb -- -- 60.1
02/24/2017 08:30 CPI NSA MoM Jan 0.40% -- -0.20%
02/24/2017 08:30 CPI YoY Jan 1.60% -- 1.50%
02/24/2017 08:30 CPI Core- Common YoY% Jan -- -- 1.40%
02/24/2017 08:30 CPI Core- Median YoY% Jan -- -- 2.00%
02/24/2017 08:30 CPI Core- Trim YoY% Jan -- -- 1.60%
02/24/2017 08:30 Consumer Price Index Jan 128.7 -- 128.4
S&P/TSX Daily Performance
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17
Leaders - Prior Session
Company Ticker % Change
Crescent Point Energy Corp CPG-T 7.76
Winpak Ltd WPK-T 7.02
Sierra Wireless Inc SW-T 6.54
Boyd Group Income Fund BYD-U-T 3.33
Methanex Corp MX-T 3.00
Laggards - Prior Session
Company Ticker % Change
Yamana Gold Inc YRI-T -10.02
Air Canada AC-T -8.47
Boardwalk Real Estate Investment TrustBEI-U-T -6.69
Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM-T -5.89
Sandstorm Gold Ltd SSL-T -5.88
Canadian Equity Upgrades
Russel Metals Raised to Outperform at RBC Capital
Canadian Equity Downgrades
Laurentian Bank of Canada Cut to Hold at TD
Encana Cut to Hold at GMP
Today's Earnings – Canada
Richmont Mines Inc $0.05, Capital Power Corp $0.29, Ritchie Bros Auctioneers Inc
$0.27, Golden Star Resources Ltd -$0.01, Waste Connections Inc $0.65, Sandstorm
Gold Ltd $0.01, Dream Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust $0.23
3. Before the Open February 21, 2017
Page 3
Weekly U.S. Economic Calendar - February 20 to February 24, 2017
Date/Time Event Period Consensus Actual Prior
02/21/2017 09:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI Feb P 55.3 -- 55
02/21/2017 09:45 Markit US Services PMI Feb P 55.8 -- 55.6
02/21/2017 09:45 Markit US Composite PMI Feb P -- -- 55.8
02/22/2017 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 17-Feb -- -- -3.70%
02/22/2017 10:00 Revisions: Existing Home Sales
02/22/2017 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan 5.54m -- 5.49m
02/22/2017 10:00 Existing Home Sales MoM Jan 0.90% -- -2.80%
02/22/2017 14:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes 1-Feb -- -- --
02/23/2017 08:30 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Jan -0.03 -- 0.14
02/23/2017 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims 18-Feb 240k -- 239k
02/23/2017 08:30 Continuing Claims 11-Feb 2065k -- 2076k
02/23/2017 09:00 House Price Purchase Index QoQ 4Q -- -- 1.50%
02/23/2017 09:00 FHFA House Price Index MoM Dec 0.40% -- 0.50%
02/23/2017 09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 19-Feb -- -- 48.1
02/23/2017 11:00 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Feb 9 -- 9
02/24/2017 10:00 New Home Sales Jan 571k -- 536k
02/24/2017 10:00 New Home Sales MoM Jan 6.50% -- -10.40%
02/24/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb F 96 -- 95.7
02/24/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. Current Conditions Feb F -- -- 111.2
02/24/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. Expectations Feb F -- -- 85.7
02/24/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Feb F -- -- 2.80%
02/24/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Feb F -- -- 2.50%
S&P 500 Daily Performance
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17
Leaders - Prior Session
Company Ticker % Change
Kraft Heinz Co/The KHC-US 10.74
VF Corp VFC-US 4.59
Colgate-Palmolive Co CL-US 4.32
Mallinckrodt PLC MNK-US 4.27
Skyworks Solutions Inc SWKS-US 4.24
Laggards - Prior Session
Company Ticker % Change
Campbell Soup Co CPB UN -6.51
Flowserve Corp FLS UN -4.80
General Mills Inc GIS UN -3.75
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH UN -3.68
Centene Corp CNC UN -3.51
U.S. Equity Upgrades
Community Health Systems Raised to Neutral at Mizuho
Viper Energy Partners Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James
Eaton Vance Raised to Neutral at BofAML
U.S. Equity Downgrades
Lear and Moody's Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
Freeport Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank
Today's Earnings – U.S.
Ecolab Inc $1.27, Westlake Chemical Corp $0.79, Momenta Pharmaceuticals Inc -
$0.23, Scripps Networks Interactive Inc $1.07, Home Depot Inc/The $1.33, Exact
Sciences Corp -$0.38, New Residential Investment Corp $0.56, Advance Auto Parts
Inc $1.09, Wal-Mart Stores Inc $1.29, Macy's Inc $1.96, Newmont Mining Corp $0.31,
Newfield Exploration Co $0.37, Depomed Inc $0.36, FirstEnergy Corp $0.39, Ixia
$0.18, XPO Logistics Inc $0.20, Whiting Petroleum Corp -$0.32, Macquarie
Infrastructure Corp $0.40, First Solar Inc $0.98, Concho Resources Inc -$0.08, Dycom
Industries Inc $0.68, Medallion Financial Corp -$0.71, Basic Energy Services Inc -
$1.22
4. Before the Open February 21, 2017
Page 4
Appendix A - Important Information
General Research Disclaimer
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opinions and other information in this document are subject to change without notice. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and
related entities are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. and/or its affiliated persons or companies may hold a position in the securities mentioned, including options,
futures and other derivative instruments thereon, and may, as principal or agent, buy or sell such securities. Affiliated persons or
companies may also make a market in and participate in an underwriting of such securities.
Full disclosures for all companies covered by TD Securities Inc. can be viewed at
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Research Ratings
Action List BUY: The stock’s total return is expected to exceed a minimum of 15%, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months and
it is a top pick in the Analyst’s sector.
BUY: The stock’s total return is expected to exceed a minimum of 15%, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months.
SPECULATIVE BUY: The stock’s total return is expected to exceed 30% over the next 12 months; however, there is material event risk
associated with the investment that could result in significant loss.
HOLD: The stock’s total return is expected to be between 0% and 15%, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months.
TENDER: Investors are advised to tender their shares to a specific offer for the company’s securities.
REDUCE: The stock’s total return is expected to be negative over the next 12 months.
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5. Before the Open February 21, 2017
Page 5
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