Economic Risk Factor Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
Before the open February 27 2017
1.
bbbsb
Overseas/Overnight Markets
U.S. stock index futures fell, taking a cue from European and Asian
markets, as worries over global growth prospects and the outcome of
Greece’s private-sector bond swap later this week weigh on sentiment.
There is no U.S. economic data on the docket today.
European stocks dropped, with banks and resource stocks among the
`largest detractors. A report released this morning showed a 0.3% Q/Q
contraction in the euro-area economy in Q4, confirming an initial estimate
published on February 15. Large declines in investment, exports and
consumer spending were to blame for the overall GDP contraction. Also
weighing on investors was a memo from the Institute of International
Finance that warned that a disorderly default would cause the euro zone
more than 1 trillion euros ($1.36 trillion) in damage, Reuters reported. The
report also stated that a default would likely force Italy and Spain to seek
aid to prevent being engulfed in the region’s debt crisis.
Private investors that have declared their participation in Greece’s debt
restructuring hold about 20% of the bonds involved in a swap, the creditors’
stering committee said yesterday. The goal of the swap, which runs
through March 8, is to reduce the amount of privately-held Greek debt by
53.5% and help secure Greece’s second rescue package.
Asian stocks fell sharply, with miners among the top declines, following
global markets lower on growth concerns. The Hang Seng shed 2.2%,
while the Shanghai Composite fell 1.4%. Japan’s Nikkei gave up a more
modest 0.6%.
North American Market Highlights & Headlines
Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T) reported a 143% increase in quarterly earnings
on Monday as margins improved on lower costs. Aecon reported EPS of
$0.49, up from $0.20 a year ago. Revenue in the quarter was $790 million,
down from $841 million, and well shy of the $859 million consensus
estimate. Aecon's backlog stood at $2.39 billion at December 31, 2011.
Futures Market
Market Chg Last % Chg
S&P 500 -2 2,363 (0.10)
NASDAQ -12 5,332 (0.22)
Dow Jones -21 20,766 (0.10)
Daily Market Summary
Market Chg Last % Chg Ytd Chg
S&P/TSX -248 15,533 (1.57) 1.61
Venture -3 836 (0.38) 9.69
Dow Jones 11 20,822 0.05 5.36
S&P 500 4 2,367 0.15 5.74
NASDAQ 10 5,845 0.17 8.59
Global Markets
Market Chg Last % Chg Ytd Chg
DAX 3 11,807 0.02 2.85
FTSE 2 7,246 0.03 1.45
Stoxx 600 -1 369 (0.30) 2.06
Nikkei -176 19,107 (0.91) (0.04)
Hang Seng -41 23,925 (0.17) 8.75
Commodities
Chg Last % Chg Ytd Chg
Gold -$2.70 $1,254.45 (0.22) 8.87
Oil $0.52 $54.51 0.95 (1.66)
Natural Gas -$0.11 $2.67 (4.26) (28.22)
F/X Rates
CDN$ Buys US$ Buys
US$ 0.7623 CDN$ 1.3118
Yen 85.73 Yen 112.46
Euro 0.7202 Euro 0.9447
Bond Yields
Market Chg Last % Chg Ytd Chg
CAN 3-MO 0.00 0.47 - 2.17
CAN 10-YR 0.02 1.62 1.06 (5.64)
U.S. 3-MO 0.00 0.50 - 1.03
U.S. 10-YR 0.02 2.33 0.77 (4.70)
All charts and data are sourced from
Bloomberg Finance L.P.
This publication is for distribution to Canadian
clients only.
Please refer to Appendix A of this report for
important disclosure information.
Overseas and Overnight Markets
U.S. stock index futures are pointing to a lower opening ahead of a key speech by
President Donald Trump in which he is expected to lay out his plans for tax and
healthcare reform and infrastructure spending.
Asian markets ended the trading session in negative territory with the Japanese Nikkei
Index leading the decline after closing 0.9% lower, hurt by a stronger yen. In China, the
Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8%, while in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index shed
0.2%.
European stocks are trading broadly lower amid investor disappointment over potential
deals unravelling. Deutsche Boerse AG and London Stock Exchange Group Plc dragged
financial services firms lower as a deal between the two market operators headed
toward collapse.
Company Headlines
TransCanada Corp (TRP-T) announced that it has offered to sell stakes in two natural
gas pipelines that serve the U.S. Northeast to TC PipeLines LP (TCP-N), U.S. based
master limited partnership in which it holds a 27% stake. TransCanada said it would sell
its 49.3% stake in the Iroquois gas transmission system and the remaining 11.8% stake
it holds in the Portland natural gas transmission system. Financial terms of the deal were
not disclosed.
Husky Energy Inc (HSE-T) is reportedly considering paring down its stakes in some of
its Eastern Canadian offshore assets, in a move that could fetch several billion dollars.
Husky's offshore assets include White Rose, seen as its crown jewel in the region, as
well as Flemish Pass and Terra Nova. Husky could potentially sell down stakes in Terra
Nova, where it has a 13% working interest, and Flemish Pass. It is also reportedly
considering paring down ownership in White Rose
Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT-N) is reportedly running a new price-comparison test in at
least 1,200 U.S. stores and squeezing packaged goods suppliers in a bid to close a
pricing gap with German-based discount grocery chain Aldi and other U.S. rivals like
Kroger Co (KR-N). Wal-Mart launched the price test across 11 Midwest and
Southeastern states such as Iowa, Illinois and Florida, focusing on price competition in
the grocery business that accounts for 56% of the company's revenue, said vendor
sources with direct knowledge of the matter. Wal-Mart's tests are aimed at finding the
right price point across a range of products that will attract more shoppers, and then
adjusting prices as needed.
Sources: Marketwatch, Bloomberg, The Canadian Press, WSJ, Globe and Mail, Financial Post,
NYT, FactSet,Thomson Reuters, StreetAccount, CNBC, RTT News)
February 27, 2017
2. Before the Open February 27, 2017
Page 2
Canadian Equities Upgrades - March 6
Weekly Canada Economic Calendar - February 27 to March 03, 2017
Date/Time Event Period Consensus Actual Prior
02/27/2017 10:00 Bloomberg Nanos Confidence 24-Feb -- -- 57.7
02/28/2017 08:30 Industrial Product Price MoM Jan 0.50% -- 0.40%
02/28/2017 08:30 Raw Materials Price Index MoM Jan 1.20% -- 6.50%
03/01/2017 07:00 MLI Leading Indicator MoM Jan -- -- 0.60%
03/01/2017 08:30 Current Account Balance 4Q -$9.75b -- -$18.30b
03/01/2017 09:30 Markit Canada Manufacturing PMI Feb -- -- 53.5
03/01/2017 10:00 Bank of Canada Rate Decision 1-Mar 0.50% -- 0.50%
03/02/2017 08:30 GDP MoM Dec 0.30% -- 0.40%
03/02/2017 08:30 GDP YoY Dec 1.70% -- 1.60%
03/02/2017 08:30 Quarterly GDP Annualized 4Q 2.00% -- 3.50%
S&P/TSX Daily Performance
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17
Leaders - Prior Session
Company Ticker % Change
Silver Standard Resources Inc SSO-T 5.08
Innergex Renewable Energy Inc INE-T 2.74
Kinross Gold Corp K-T 2.67
Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM-T 2.56
Sierra Wireless Inc SW-T 2.01
Laggards - Prior Session
Company Ticker % Change
Eldorado Gold Corp ELD-T -10.97
Torex Gold Resources Inc TXG-T -7.95
Canadian Energy Services & Technology CorpCEU-T -7.90
Nevsun Resources Ltd NSU-T -7.79
MacDonald Dettwiler & Associates LtdMDA-T -7.30
Canadian Equity Upgrades
Magna International Raised to Outperform at Macquarie
Asanko Gold Raised to Buy at Canaccord
Canadian Equity Downgrades
TeraGo Cut to Neutral at Macquarie
Today's Earnings – Canada
Vermilion Energy Inc $0.08, Great Panther Silver Ltd $0.02, Canadian Apartment
Properties REIT $0.44, Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund -$0.02, PrairieSky Royalty
Ltd $0.09, Canacol Energy Ltd $0.03, Africa Oil Corp -$0.02, Storm Resources Ltd
$0.02, TransAlta Renewables Inc $0.24, Grande West Transportation Group Inc $0.01
3. Before the Open February 27, 2017
Page 3
Weekly U.S. Economic Calendar - February 27 to March 03, 2017
Date/Time Event Period Consensus Actual Prior
02/27/2017 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Jan P 1.60% 1.80% -0.80%
02/27/2017 08:30 Durables Ex Transportation Jan P 0.50% -0.20% 0.90%
02/27/2017 08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Jan P 0.50% -0.40% 1.10%
02/27/2017 08:30 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Jan P 0.20% -0.60% 1.60%
02/27/2017 10:00 Pending Home Sales MoM Jan 0.60% -- 1.60%
02/27/2017 10:30 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Feb 19.4 -- 22.1
02/28/2017 08:30 GDP Annualized QoQ 4Q S 2.10% -- 1.90%
02/28/2017 08:30 Personal Consumption 4Q S 2.60% -- 2.50%
02/28/2017 08:30 GDP Price Index 4Q S 2.10% -- 2.10%
02/28/2017 08:30 Core PCE QoQ 4Q S 1.30% -- 1.30%
02/28/2017 08:30 Wholesale Inventories MoM Jan P 0.50% -- 1.00%
02/28/2017 08:30 Retail Inventories MoM Jan -- -- 0.00%
02/28/2017 09:00 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA Dec 0.70% -- 0.88%
02/28/2017 09:00 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA Dec 5.35% -- 5.27%
02/28/2017 09:00 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index Dec -- -- 192.14
02/28/2017 09:45 Chicago Purchasing Manager Feb 53.5 -- 50.3
02/28/2017 10:00 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Feb 111 -- 111.8
02/28/2017 10:00 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Feb 10 -- 12
03/01/2017 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 24-Feb -- -- -2.00%
03/01/2017 08:30 Personal Income Jan 0.30% -- 0.30%
03/01/2017 08:30 Personal Spending Jan 0.30% -- 0.50%
03/01/2017 08:30 Real Personal Spending Jan -0.10% -- 0.30%
03/01/2017 08:30 PCE Deflator MoM Jan 0.50% -- 0.20%
03/01/2017 08:30 PCE Deflator YoY Jan 2.00% -- 1.60%
03/01/2017 08:30 PCE Core MoM Jan 0.30% -- 0.10%
03/01/2017 08:30 PCE Core YoY Jan 1.70% -- 1.70%
03/01/2017 09:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI Feb F 54.5 -- 54.3
03/01/2017 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Feb 56.1 -- 56
03/01/2017 10:00 ISM Prices Paid Feb 68 -- 69
03/01/2017 10:00 ISM New Orders Feb -- -- 60.4
03/01/2017 10:00 ISM Employment Feb -- -- 56.1
03/01/2017 10:00 Construction Spending MoM Jan 0.60% -- -0.20%
03/01/2017 Wards Total Vehicle Sales Feb 17.70m -- 17.48m
03/01/2017 Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales Feb 13.65m -- 13.60m
03/02/2017 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims 25-Feb 245k -- 244k
03/02/2017 08:30 Continuing Claims 18-Feb 2065k -- 2060k
03/02/2017 09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 26-Feb -- -- 48
03/03/2017 09:45 Markit US Services PMI Feb F 54 -- 53.9
03/03/2017 09:45 Markit US Composite PMI Feb F -- -- 54.3
03/03/2017 10:00 ISM Non-Manf. Composite Feb 56.5 -- 56.5
S&P 500 Daily Performance
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17
Leaders - Prior Session
Company Ticker % Change
Foot Locker Inc FL-US 9.38
Intuit Inc INTU-US 6.06
Nordstrom Inc JWN-US 5.74
Kohl's Corp KSS-US 5.08
L Brands Inc LB-US 4.19
Laggards - Prior Session
Company Ticker % Change
Southwestern Energy Co SWN UN -11.98
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co HPE UN -6.89
Range Resources Corp RRC UN -4.49
Transocean Ltd RIG UN -3.91
Newfield Exploration Co NFX UN -2.91
U.S. Equity Upgrades
Aflac Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
Adidas Upgraded to Outperform at RBC
U.S. Equity Downgrades
Ares Management Cut to Market Perform at KBW
PSE&G Downgraded to Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Today's Earnings – U.S.
TEGNA Inc $0.66, MDC Partners Inc $0.04, Horizon Pharma Plc $0.51, Emerge
Energy Services LP -$0.71, American Tower Corp $1.41, Priceline Group Inc/The
$12.97, Frontier Communications Corp -$0.04, Icahn Enterprises LP -$0.25, EOG
Resources Inc -$0.14, Tenet Healthcare Corp $0.22, ONEOK Inc $0.45, Albemarle
Corp $0.73, Callon Petroleum Co $0.10, SBA Communications Corp $1.39, Exelixis
Inc -$0.01, Workday Inc -$0.01, RSP Permian Inc $0.06, Hertz Global Holdings Inc -
$0.55, Zeltiq Aesthetics Inc $0.17
4. Before the Open February 27, 2017
Page 4
Appendix A - Important Information
General Research Disclaimer
The statements and statistics contained herein are based on material believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed to be accurate or
complete. This report is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any
investment fund, security or other product. Particular investment, trading, or tax strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s
objectives. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance. This document
does not provide individual financial, legal, investment or tax advice. Please consult your own legal, investment and tax advisor. All
opinions and other information in this document are subject to change without notice. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and
related entities are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.
TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. and/or its affiliated persons or companies may hold a position in the securities mentioned, including options,
futures and other derivative instruments thereon, and may, as principal or agent, buy or sell such securities. Affiliated persons or
companies may also make a market in and participate in an underwriting of such securities.
Full disclosures for all companies covered by TD Securities Inc. can be viewed at
https://www.tdsresearch.com/equities/welcome.important.disclosure.action
Research Ratings
Action List BUY: The stock’s total return is expected to exceed a minimum of 15%, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months and
it is a top pick in the Analyst’s sector.
BUY: The stock’s total return is expected to exceed a minimum of 15%, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months.
SPECULATIVE BUY: The stock’s total return is expected to exceed 30% over the next 12 months; however, there is material event risk
associated with the investment that could result in significant loss.
HOLD: The stock’s total return is expected to be between 0% and 15%, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months.
TENDER: Investors are advised to tender their shares to a specific offer for the company’s securities.
REDUCE: The stock’s total return is expected to be negative over the next 12 months.
Technical Research Disclaimer
The opinions expressed herein reflect a technical perspective and may differ from fundamental research on these issuers. Fundamental
research can be obtained through your TD Wealth advisor or on the Markets and Research site within WebBroker.
The technical research opinions contained in this report are based on historical technical data and expectations of the most likely direction
of a market or security. No guarantee of that outcome is ever implied.
Research Report Dissemination Policy
TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. makes its research products available in electronic format. These research products are posted to our
proprietary websites for all eligible clients to access by password and we distribute the information to our sales personnel who then may
distribute it to their retail clients under the appropriate circumstances either by email, fax or regular mail. No recipient may pass on to any
other person, or reproduce by any means, the information contained in this report without our prior written consent.
Analyst Certification
The Portfolio Advice and Investment Research analyst(s) responsible for this report hereby certify that (i) the recommendations and
technical opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about any and all of the
securities or issuers discussed herein, and (ii) no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,
related to the provision of specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in the research report.
Conflicts of Interest
The Portfolio Advice & Investment Research analyst(s) responsible for this report may own securities of the issuer(s) discussed in this
report. As with most other employees, the analyst(s) who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the
overall profitability of TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. and its affiliates, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking services,
however TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. does not compensate its analysts based on specific investment banking transactions.
5. Before the Open February 27, 2017
Page 5
Corporate Disclosure
TD Wealth represents the products and services offered by TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. (Member – Canadian Investor Protection Fund),
TD Waterhouse Private Investment Counsel Inc., TD Wealth Private Banking (offered by The Toronto-Dominion Bank) and
TD Wealth Private Trust (offered by The Canada Trust Company).
The Portfolio Advice and Investment Research team is part of TD Waterhouse Canada Inc., a subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion Bank.
Trade-mark Disclosures
Bloomberg and Bloomberg.com are trademarks and service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P., a Delaware limited partnership, or its
subsidiaries. All rights reserved.
“TD Securities” is the trade name which TD Securities Inc. and TD Securities (USA) LLC. jointly use to market their institutional equity
services.
TD Securities is a trade-mark of The Toronto-Dominion Bank representing TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC, TD Securities
Limited and certain corporate and investment banking activities of The Toronto-Dominion Bank.
All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
® The TD logo and other trade-marks are the property of The Toronto-Dominion Bank.
FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc. 2016 "FTSE®" is a trade mark of FTSE International Ltd and is used under licence. "TMX” is a
trade mark of TSX Inc. and is used under licence. All rights in the FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc.'s indices and / or FTSE
TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc.'s ratings vest in FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc. and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE TMX
Global Debt Capital Markets Inc. nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in such indices and / or ratings or
underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets Inc.'s data is permitted without FTSE TMX Global Debt
Capital Markets Inc.'s express written consent.