DITV trades close to multi-year low valuations with EV/EBITDA of 10x FY15 and 7.3x FY16. Maintain Buy with a DCF based target price of INR75/sh.

1. 29 October 2014
2QFY15 Results Update | Sector: Media
Dish TV India
Shobhit Khare (Shobhit.Khare@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
CMP: INR57
TP: INR75
Buy
27,098
8,090
Bloomberg
DITV IN
Equity Shares (m)
1,065.0
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
61.1/1.0
52-Week Range (INR)
65/43
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
4/1/-17
Financials & Valuation (INR Million)
Y/E MAR
2015E
2016E
2017E
Net Sales
27.7
31.9
36.9
EBITDA
7.0
9.5
12.8
Net Profit
-0.1
2.2
5.6
EPS (INR)
-0.1
2.1
5.2
EPS Gr. (%)
NA
NA
NA
BV/Sh (INR)
-3.0
-0.9
4.3
RoE (%)
NA
NA
NA
RoCE (%)
7.9
25.5
49.1
Div. Payout (%)
NA
NA
NA
Valuations
P/E (x)
NA
27.7
10.9
P/BV (x)
NA
NA
NA
EV/EBITDA (x)
10.0
7.3
5.0
EV/Sub (INR)
5,453
4,820
4,102
 2QFY15 EBITDA below estimates led by higher opex: DITV’s 2QFY15 EBITDA increased 3.3% QoQ to INR1.62b (vs estimate of INR1.89b). Subscription revenue grew ~5% QoQ to INR6.17b led by subscriber growth as well as ARPU increase. Opex increased 5.5% QoQ led by increased selling and distribution expenses. Net loss declined 6% QoQ to INR151m.
 Subscriber addition momentum continues to improve: DITV added 0.38m net subscribers in 2QFY15, up ~15% QoQ. Subscriber addition momentum is expected to accelerate further given strong festive season for the industry despite disciplined approach towards discounting/promotions. ARPU increased ~1% QoQ to INR172. Bulk of the ARPU benefit from ~6% price increase undertaken will reflect from next quarter. Net subscriber base increased 10% YoY and ~3% QoQ to 12.1m. Monthly churn remained under control at 0.7%.
 Slight margin decline led by increased cost pertaining to festive demand: EBITDA margin declined 40bp QoQ to 24.1% despite strong revenue growth. Operating costs increased QoQ due to increased advertising, sales commissions and other selling expenditure pertaining to the increased box sales expected during the festive season. Programming and content costs declined 4% QoQ, constituting 31.3% of subscription revenue. Dish TV has already renewed its content deals with large broadcasters like Star and Zee.
Downgrading FY15 EBITDA; maintain FY16/17 estimates; Buy
 We are downgrading FY15 EBITDA by 5% due to higher opex and continued high licence fee provision till there is clarity on the final outcome on the issue. We now model ~300bp benefit in licence fee outlay to accrue from FY16 (vs FY15 earlier).
 We expect EBTDA growth to rebound from 5% decline in FY14 to 33% CAGR over FY14-16E led by 11% net subs CAGR, 6% ARPU CAGR, and 1200bp EBITDA margin expansion (content cost leverage, reduced licence fee and entertainment tax).
 DITV trades close to multi-year low valuations with EV/EBITDA of 10x FY15 and 7.3x FY16. Maintain Buy with a DCF based target price of INR75/sh.
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.

2. 29 October 2014 2
Dish TV India
Revenue up 5% QoQ
Source: Company, MOSL
Net subscriber base at 12.1m
Source: Company, MOSL
Net adds up QoQ; Churn at 0.7%
Source: Company, MOSL
Dish TV: Quarterly EBITDA (INR b)
Source: Company, MOSL
3.03.33.74.34.64.84.95.25.25.35.65.65.85.96.26.46.46.70714166527-1350425215 1QFY112QFY113QFY114QFY111QFY122QFY123QFY124QFY121QFY132QFY133QFY134QFY131QFY142QFY143QFY144QFY141QFY152QFY15 Revenue (INR b)QoQ (%) 6.26.87.78.58.99.29.59.69.810.010.510.710.811.011.211.411.712.1 1QFY112QFY113QFY114QFY111QFY122QFY123QFY124QFY121QFY132QFY133QFY134QFY131QFY142QFY143QFY144QFY141QFY152QFY150.50.60.90.80.40.30.30.20.20.20.50.20.10.20.20.20.30.4 0.50.91.00.91.11.21.60.91.01.01.10.80.50.60.60.60.70.7 1QFY112QFY113QFY114QFY111QFY122QFY123QFY124QFY121QFY132QFY133QFY134QFY131QFY142QFY143QFY144QFY141QFY152QFY15 Net subscriber adds (m)Monthly Churn (%) 0.320.500.670.901.121.221.201.441.561.561.381.201.221.481.451.291.571.62 1QFY112QFY113QFY114QFY111QFY122QFY123QFY124QFY121QFY132QFY133QFY134QFY131QFY142QFY143QFY144QFY141QFY142QFY14

3. 29 October 2014 3
Dish TV India
Programming & Content costs (%)
Source: Company, MOSL
ARPU up QoQ
Source: Company, MOSL
Subscriber acquisition cost down QoQ
Source: Company, MOSL
403838303431322829272935333132323129494646354036373433303339363535363431 1QFY112QFY113QFY114QFY111QFY122QFY123QFY124QFY121QFY132QFY133QFY134QFY131QFY142QFY143QFY144QFY141QFY152QFY15 Programming and content costs (% of rev) Programming and content costs (% of subscription rev) 13913914215015015215215115615916015716516516916617017210260100321-2503-221 1QFY112QFY113QFY114QFY111QFY122QFY123QFY124QFY121QFY132QFY133QFY134QFY131QFY142QFY143QFY144QFY141QFY152QFY15 ARPU (INR)QoQ (%) 2,1472,0832,1422,2242,0582,2322,1242,1272,1452,2732,2011,9961,8281,8491889180018001650 -10-334-78-5016-3-9-812-50-8 1QFY112QFY113QFY114QFY111QFY122QFY123QFY124QFY121QFY132QFY133QFY134QFY131QFY142QFY143QFY144QFY141QFY152QFY15 Subscriber acquisition cost (INR)QoQ (%)

4. 29 October 2014 4
Dish TV India
Dish TV: Quarterly performance (INR m)
2QFY14*
1QFY15
2QFY15
YoY%
QoQ%
2QFY15E
v/s est (%)
Revenue
5,926
6,407
6,723
13.4
4.9
6,630
1.4
Operating expenditure
4,447
4,836
5,100
14.7
5.5
4,736
7.7
EBITDA
1,479
1,571
1,623
9.7
3.3
1,894
-14.3
EBITDA margin (%)
25.0
24.5
24.1
-82bps
-38bps
28.6
-442bps
Depreciation
1,504
1,453
1,519
1.0
4.6
1,496
1.5
Interest
345
395
425
23.2
7.6
396
7.4
Other income
211
116
170
-19.2
46.3
154
10.4
PBT
-160
-160
-151
-5.6
-5.7
156
-196.8
Tax
0
0
0
NA
NA
0
NA
Effective tax rate (%)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0bps
0bps
0.0
0bps
Proforma PAT
-160
-160
-151
-5.6
-5.7
156
-196.8
Other details
Subscription revenue
5,345
5,886
6,168
15.4
4.8
6,219
-0.8
Net subs (m)
11.0
11.7
12.1
10.2
3.2
12.0
0.9
Net adds (m)
0.16
0.33
0.38
136.3
14.5
0.27
40.0
ARPU (INR/month)
165
170
172
4.6
1.2
175
-1.9
* Not comparable due to change in accounting Source: Company, MOSL
Dish TV: Summary of estimate change
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
Gross subscribers (m)
Revenue (INR b)
Old
19.1
21.6
24.1
Old
27.4
31.6
36.3
New
19.2
21.8
24.4
New
27.7
31.9
36.9
Change (%)
0.5
0.9
1.2
Change (%)
1.0
0.6
1.6
Net subscribers (m)
Operating costs
Old
12.8
14.1
15.2
Old
20.0
22.2
23.4
New
12.9
14.3
15.5
New
20.6
22.4
24.0
Change (%)
0.8
1.3
1.8
Change (%)
3.1
0.9
2.5
Gross adds (m)
EBITDA (INR b)
Old
2.5
2.5
2.5
Old
7.4
9.5
12.8
New
2.6
2.6
2.6
New
7.0
9.5
12.8
Change (%)
4.0
4.0
4.0
Change (%)
-4.8
0.0
-0.1
Net adds (m)
Net Profit (INR b)
Old
1.4
1.3
1.1
Old
0.3
2.3
5.8
New
1.5
1.4
1.2
New
-0.1
2.2
5.6
Change (%)
6.8
7.1
7.5
Change (%)
NA
-6.1
-4.1
ARPU (INR/month)
Depreciation (INR b)
Old
176
185
197
Old
6.1
6.2
6.5
New
175
184
196
New
6.1
6.3
6.6
Change (%)
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
Change (%)
0.4
1.3
2.0
Annual churn (% of net subs)
Net Finance Cost (INR b)
Old
9
9
9
Old
1.6
1.5
1.1
New
9
9
9
New
1.6
1.6
1.2
Change (bp)
-1
-3
-4
Change (%)
1.7
4.4
7.9
CPE capex/gross add (INR)
EBITDA Margin (%)
Old
2,709
2,655
2,515
Old
27.0
29.9
35.4
New
2,709
2,655
2,515
New
25.4
29.7
34.8
Change (%)
0.0
0.0
0.0
Change (bp)
-155
-18
-59
Source: Company, MOSL

5. 29 October 2014 5
Dish TV India
DISHTV: A Snapshot
Key Assumptions
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
Gross subscribers (m)
7
10
13
15
17
19
22
24
YoY (%)
36
51
24
18
9
16
14
12
Gross adds (m)
1.8
3.5
2.5
2.3
1.4
2.6
2.6
2.6
YoY (%)
-12
93
-30
-6
-38
82
0
0
Net subscribers (m)
5.7
8.5
9.6
10.7
11.4
12.9
14.3
15.5
YoY (%)
32
50
13
11
6
13
11
8
Net adds (m)
1.4
2.8
1.1
1.1
0.7
1.5
1.4
1.2
YoY (%)
-22
106
-60
-2
-40
129
-10
-11
Monthly churn (%)
7.4
7.9
11.4
8.5
4.8
6.0
6.0
6.0
ARPU (INR)
140
140
153
157
165
175
184
196
YoY (%)
-3
0
10
3
5
6
5
6
Prog & content costs (INR b)
4.6
5.2
6.1
6.5
7.8
8.0
9.2
10.4
% of revenue
42
36
31
30
32
29
29
28
EBITDA margin (%)
9
17
25
27
23
25
30
35
CPE capex/gross add (USD)
47
46
46
46
46
45
44
43
CPE capex/subscription revenue (%)
49
62
34
32
18
28
23
19
Revenue Mix
Revenue (INR b)
10.8
14.4
19.6
21.7
24.3
27.7
31.9
36.9
YoY %
47
32
36
11
12
14
15
16
Subscription revenue (%)
77
83
85
89
90
92
94
95
Lease rentals (%)
14
14
11
7
4
2
1
0
Others (%)
9
3
4
4
6
5
5
5
Source: Company, MOSL

6. 29 October 2014 6
Dish TV India
Dish TV India: an investment profile
Company description
 DITV enjoys a leadership position, with ~28% net subscriber share in the fast-growing 6-player Indian DTH market.
 As of September 2014, DITV had 12.1m active DTH subscribers.
Key investment argument
 DTH technology has lead the digitization wave in India, with industry subscriber base of ~40m of the total cable and satellite base of ~145m.
 DITV is well positioned to benefit from the ongoing digitalization further boosted by government regulations to phase-out analogue broadcasting which should strong revenue/EBITDA CAGR over FY14-17E.
 Favorable pricing environment led by increasing financial stress for DTH industry, transition to gross billing for phase I/II cable subscribers, and phase III/IV digitization.
Key investment risks
 Potential increase in content costs as broadcasters look to enhance monetization post digitization.
 Further delay in phase III/IV digitization.
Recent developments
 New licence fee recommendations by TRAI would prospectively reduce licence fee provision from ~10.4% of revenue to ~7.5% of revenue.
Valuation and view
 We expect EBTDA growth to rebound from 5% decline in FY14 to 33% CAGR over FY14-16E led by 11% net subs CAGR, 6% ARPU CAGR, and 1200bp EBITDA margin expansion (content cost leverage, reduced licence fee and entertainment tax).
 DITV trades close to multi-year low valuations with EV/EBITDA of 10x FY15 and 7.3x FY16.
 Maintain Buy with a DCF based target price of INR75/sh.
Comparative valuations
Dish TV ZEEL Sun TV
P/E (x) FY15E NA 32.4 16.4
FY16E NA 27.6 12.6
EV/EBITDA (x) FY15E 10.0 21.8 7.2
FY16E 7.3 18.9 5.9
EV/Sales (x) FY15E 2.5 6.6 5.0
FY16E 2.2 5.7 4.2
P/BV (x) FY15E NA 9.9 3.7
FY16E NA 7.9 3.4
EPS: MOSL forecast v/s consensus (INR)
MOSL Consensus Variation
Forecast Forecast (%)
FY15 -0.1 0.3 -131.8
FY16 2.1 1.6 30.7
Target price and recommendation
Current Target Upside Reco.
Price (INR) Price (INR) (%)
57 75 31.6 Buy
Shareholding pattern (%)
Sep-14 Jun-14 Sep-13
Promoter 64.5 64.5 64.5
DII 3.1 2.3 5.5
FII 19.8 19.1 17.0
Others 12.6 14.1 13.0
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
Stock performance (1-year)
4047546168Oct-13Jan-14Apr-14Jul-14Oct-14Dish TVSensex -Rebased

7. 29 October 2014 7
Dish TV India
Financials and valuation
Income Statement(INR Million) Y/E March20142015E2016E2017ENet Sales 24,25827,66031,85136,854YoY (%)12.014.015.215.7Operating expenses18,74520,62322,39224,028Cost of goods and services13,09813,95014,94415,734Employee Cost8919801,0971,207Selling & distribution exps3,3214,3744,9035,499Administrative exps1,4361,3191,4471,588EBITDA5,5137,0389,45912,826EBITDA margin (%)22.725.429.734.8Depreciation5,9736,1186,2966,637Interest1,3271,5911,5561,211Other Income660582582582PBT-1,127-892,1895,559Adjusted PAT-1,127-892,1895,559 Change (%)-10.0-92.1-2,562.8153.9Exceptional items-415000Reported PAT-1,542-892,1895,559Balance Sheet(INR Million) Y/E March20142015E2016E2017EShare Capital1,0651,0651,0651,065Share Premium15,37815,37815,37815,378Reserves-19,531-19,620-17,431-11,872Net Worth-3,089-3,178-9894,571Loans14,46015,35313,7598,469Deffered Tax Liability0000Capital Employed 11,37112,17512,77013,039Gross Fixed Assets42,31449,99857,66965,130Less: Depreciation27,42233,54039,83746,473Net Fixed Assets14,89116,45817,83218,656Capital WIP2,8082,8082,8082,808Investments1,1801,1801,1801,180Curr. Assets8,8319,0479,2869,549Inventory758598114Debtors415473545630Cash & Bank Balance5,3995,3995,3995,399Loans & Advances2,9433,0903,2443,406Current Liab. & Prov.16,33917,31718,33619,154Creditors7,8378,89110,04511,258Provisions & other liab.8,5038,4268,2917,897Net Current Assets -7,508-8,270-9,050-9,605Miscellanous exp0000Application of Funds11,37112,17512,77013,039E: MOSL EstimatesRatiosY/E March20142015E2016E2017EBasic (INR) Adjusted EPS -1.1-0.12.15.2Growth (%)-10.0-92.1-2,562.8153.9Cash EPS 4.65.78.011.5Book Value-2.9-3.0-0.94.3DPS0.00.00.00.0Payout (incl. Div. Tax.) (%)0.00.00.00.0ValuationP/E NMNM27.710.9Cash P/E12.510.17.25.0EV/EBITDA12.610.07.35.0EV/EBITDA (excl lease renta15.211.17.45.0EV/Sales2.92.52.21.7Price/Book ValueNANANANAEV/net subscriber (INR)6,1045,4534,8204,102EV/net subscriber (USD)99887866Profitability Ratios (%) RoENANANANARoCE -5.37.925.549.1Turnover RatiosDebtors (Days)6666Inventory (Days)1111Creditors. (Days)153157164171Asset Turnover (x)3.75.35.45.8Leverage RatioDebt/Equity (x)NANANANACash Flow Statement(INR Million) Y/E March20142015E2016E2017EOp.Profit/(Loss) bef Tax5,0987,0389,45912,826Other Income660582582582Interest Paid-1,327-1,591-1,556-1,211Direct Taxes Paid0000(Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Cap.413762780555CF from Op.Activity4,8446,7919,26512,751(inc)/Dec in FA + CWIP-2,799-7,684-7,671-7,461(Pur)/Sale of Investments-1,180000CF from Inv.Activity-3,978-7,684-7,671-7,461Issue of Shares0000Inc/(Dec) in Debt-1,870893-1,594-5,290Dividends Paid0000Other Financing Activities0000CF from Fin.Activity-1,870893-1,594-5,290Inc/(Dec) in Cash-1,004000Add: Opening Balance6,4035,3995,3995,399Closing Balance5,3995,3995,3995,399

8. 29 October 2014 8
Dish TV India
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Disclosure of Interest Statement DISH TV INDIA LTD
 Analyst ownership of the stock No
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For U.S.
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This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore
Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited is acting as an exempt financial advisor under section 23(1)(f) of the Financial Advisers Act(FAA) read with regulation 17(1)(d) of the Financial Advisors Regulations and is a subsidiary of Motilal Oswal Securities Limited in India. This research is distributed in Singapore by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited and it is only directed in Singapore to accredited investors, as defined in the Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time.
In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
Anosh Koppikar Kadambari Balachandran
Email : anosh.Koppikar@motilaloswal.com Email : kadambari.balachandran@motilaloswal.com
Contact : (+65)68189232 Contact : (+65) 68189233 / 65249115
Office Address : 21 (Suite 31),16 Collyer Quay,Singapore 04931
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 9, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025
Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com