ISPC14

1. 14th Meeting of the Independent Science &
Partnership Council
12-16 September 2016
ICRISAT Headquarters Hyderabad
Strategic Foresight
Foresight in the CGIAR : Concept Note and Terms
of Reference for a Working Group
Albino Maggio
University of Naples Federico II

2. Concept note on the background and
rationale of the foresight work and the initial
steps in the process and the program of work
 The ISPC Task Force recommended that the ISPC play a
role in advising the System Council on scientific foresight,
to inform updating of the CGIAR Strategy and Results
Framework (SRF).
 ISPC will oversee the implementation of strategic
foresight, once the scope has been set by the SC.
ISPC and Strategic Foresight

3. The purpose of the CGIAR System is to advance agri-food science and innovation
to enable poor people, especially women, to better nourish their families, and
improve productivity and resilience so they can share in economic growth and
manage natural resources in the face of climate change and other challenges.
CGIAR Mandate and Forward Looking
 While the purpose of the CGIAR is fixed and clear, how best
to manage agricultural research to achieve this purpose could
change over time.
 Need for a more effective alignment of research strategies
with overall objectives.
 Foresight can help in this process by looking at alternative
plausible futures to try to understand the overall role of
agricultural research in fulfilling the purpose of CGIAR, and
then the overall role of CGIAR research within that set.

4.  It has been acknowledged the value of foresight in
addressing complex issues and analyzing future scenarios.
 A large body of literature on foresight and foresight-like
studies on food and nutrition security, poverty alleviation,
agriculture sustainability and management of natural
resources has been produced.
Foresight is a well-known tool

7. ISCP work on prioritization, urbanization and farm size, crop
improvement and agricultural expansion, theory of change
Work stemmed from international networks in which CGIAR
plays an active role. The Forward Thinking Platform, The
Grassroots Foresight Initiative, The Global Foresight Hub
Inter-center initiatives: Systemwide Program on Collective
Action and Property Rights (CAPRI developed at IFPRI) and
the Global Futures project (IFPRI)
On-going Foresight at CGIAR

8. Rolling collaborations include activities with the Forum for
Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA), Global Forum of Rural
Advisory Services (GFRAS), Young Professional for Agricultural
Development (YPARD) -
CGIAR Research Programs (CRPs) and global integrating programs
(GIP) have all internalized foresight components addressing more
inclusive and participatory research, sustainable aquaculture, the
interaction between livestock development and the environment
and more
On-going Foresight at CGIAR

9. Lack of coordination is a possible constraint
for harmonized outcome of these efforts

10. Most foresight work on food and nutrition security has
framed its analysis on similar drivers:
1) Global population increases
2) Climate change
3) Competition for key resources
4) Societal values
The coordination-to-prioritization
process is not easy

11. 1) Balancing demand and supply sustainably – to ensure that
food supplies are affordable to everyone and in particular
the poorest groups.
2) Ensuring that there is adequate stability in food supplies.
3) Achieving global access to food and ending hunger.
4) Managing the contribution of the food system to the
mitigation of climate change.
5) Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services while
feeding the world.
Critical challenges to face if we want to
feed the world and alleviate poverty in a
sustainable way
(distilled)

12.  Scenario analyses address the systemic and dynamic nature
of food security and have been used to somehow narrow
down this list and propose stricter prioritization criteria.
 However, describing (and using) alternative, equally
plausible futures may open up the opportunity for more
policy options and actions. This is somewhat in contrast
with the need for prioritization, a process that is much
needed in research panning and policy-making.
Scenario Analyses

13. To serve as an overall umbrella to:
 Inform the strategy and revision of the SRF
 Contribute identifying relevance of CGIAR research
 Coordinate streams for better coherence in the CGIAR
 Provide relevant context and emerging insights as a basis for
system level prioritization of research
Main objective of the foresight exercise in ISPC
How research Programs and Centers can efficiently operate in
synergy to best respond to emerging needs has to be established
via a systematic process.
Foresight can help to define this process through a participatory
approach.
Foresight starts from looking at
what evidence the world needs to
deliver the SDGs
Finally it narrows it again to where
the CGIAR has a competitive
advantage and within that what is
value for money for use of W1-2
funding
Then narrows that down to
what donor of agricultural
development can fund

14. 1) Scanning a and understanding major S&T
developments, trends and issues (Horizon Scanning)
2) Mobilizing and engaging key stakeholders
3) Generating (new) knowledge through exploration,
analysis and anticipation of possible futures
4) Shaping the future through strategic planning
5) Evaluating/learning
A general foresight process in 5 steps

15. 1) Open to multiple approaches including economic modelling,
analysis of comparative advantage, scenarios to best respond to
complex issues.
2) Cross-linked to science quality to best allocate resources to
potentially highly successful projects.
3) Participatory via bottom-up inclusion of all Centers, CRPs, donors
that will build ownership of the process.
4) Coordinated (by the ICPS) to avoid overlaps and duplication of
efforts and to ensure an objective assessment, without bias from
individual stakeholders.
5) Inclusive by involving in the process other institutions of
international agricultural research organizations.
Imbedding Foresight in the CGIAR systems
(general principles)

16. STAGE 1
The SC will “set the scene” by providing a high level forward-
looking analysis of the global context within and beyond the
CGIAR. This will lead to define key strategic questions and
drivers relevant to the CGIAR mandate and strategic goals.
(i.e. reducing rural poverty, increasing food security, improving
human health and nutrition, and ensuring sustainable
management of natural resources).
Strategic and Scientific Foresight
in a 4 step process
Strategic Fresight (including political
dimensions) will frame the major lines
of expected research based on
megatrends and foreseen scenarios.
Define the System Level Outcomes.
Scientific Foresight - System thinking for
strategic prioritization. Setting actions across
major agro-food systems and addressing
underexplored trends and new areas of research
that need further attention.

17. STAGE 2
Is an Independent Assessment, where the scope should go
through a true brainstorming with a small group of “strategic
thinkers”, on how the futures may look like around grand
challenges, when and how science comes into it, which are
the key questions and how is the world prepared to address
them for reaching and beyond the SDGs
STAGE 3
The outcome of STAGE 1 and STAGE 2 will feed into STAGE
3 for the operational (or scientific) foresight. Here the
scope is to start matching research demand and research
offer (CGIAR comparative advantage) on which the System
will commit to capitalize and invest.

18. STAGE 4
Is the truly operational step that links the STAGES 1-3 process
to research activities and how these can best evolve based
on new knowledge acquired throughout the process.
ISPC will support the activities within STAGE 1 and STAGE 2,
implement, coordinate and supervise the activities of
STAGE 3 and 4, ensure that the entire process is effectively
carried out.

20.  At System Level a Foresight Steering Committee (FSC) will be
established and responsible for STAGE 1.
 As Independent Assessment, STAGE 2 will not involve CGIAR
associated members.
 STAGE 3 and 4 will be managed by an enlarged Foresight Working
Group, responsible for functionalizing the outcome of STAGE 1 and 2
into a structured foresight process (STAGE 3 and 4).
 The two foresight levels (STAGE 1-2 strategic and STAGE 3-4 scientific)
will operate harmonically, since the outcome of the strategic
foresight (STAGE 1 and 2) will be the strategic operational frame in
which a first level of priorities (comparative advantage of the CGIAR)
will be set along with possible research gaps identified.
A few operational details

21. 2-year Action Plan

23. Abraham Harold Maslow (April 1,
1908 – June 8, 1970) was an
American psychologist who was best
known for creating Maslow's hierarchy
of needs (prioritization??)
“If all you have is a hammer,
everything looks like a nail”
(AH Maslow)