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Animal fattening and fodders

  1. Animal Fattening and Fodders John McPeak Department of Public Administration and International Affairs Syracuse University Presentation at ADRAS IBLI June 8, 2015 ILRI Nairobi
  2. The Context • Barrett et al (2008) write “Private creditors that presently do not finance potentially high-return ventures due to drought risk might be willing to lend if the assets that secure loans could be insured. Insurance can thereby “crowd- in” much-needed credit for enterprises in the region without leaving poor residents excessively vulnerable to losing assets when nature fails them.” (p.1). • Empirical evaluations conducted in Ethiopia of the Productive Safety Net Program (World Bank 2010; Gilligan et al. 2006) illustrate that when the cash transfers are linked to some form of agricultural innovation long term poverty reduction is possible. • Both safety net and index-based insurance programs should arguably improve producers access to credit for asset building investment. • Is animal fattening one such innovation that research and extension can support?
  3. Animal Fattening- Context • Producer prices in the semi-arid rangelands generally get less than half the terminal market price. • Animal conformation plays an important role in determining price per head of an animal. • Fattening operations have been growing over the past decade. • Intensification in the livestock sector is already occurring in the form of finishing operations in places like Adama outside Addis Ababa (Aklilu 2009, Farmer 2010), in Coast Province in Kenya (Mahmoud 2006) and ranches elsewhere in Kenya (Farmer and Mbikwa, 2012). • These operations are sourcing animals in the arid and semi-arid rangelands, holding them in finishing lots or ranches to improve or increase body condition, and selling them at a higher price. • Guiding question; is there a way to retain some of that value added revenue in the semi arid areas. • Alternative income generation option • Employment • Could be accessible with the kind of credit that is out there
  4. 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 Nominal Price per TLU Ethiopia ETB Addis Nominal Boran Nominal 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 Real Price Per TLU Ethiopia 2010 ETB Addis Rea Borana Real Price per Head in TLU Addis data from www.lmiset.net courtesy Jay Angerer of Texas A&M IBLI Boran household data Courtesy of the people in this room! CPI adjustment from WDI online, 2010 Birr Prices converted to TLU, .7 for camel, 1 for cattle, 10 for sheep and goats, average for price per TLU for 3 month quarter per year
  5. Ref: ML_C01_Country !(^ ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 1 2 4 8 10 5 9 7 8a 3 6 MAURITANIA ALGERIA BURKINA NIGER GUINEA Gao Kayes Segou Mopti Kidal Bamako Sikasso Tombouctou 0 100 200 Kilometers Wabaria $341 Kati $386 Kidal $201 Gossi $278 Konna $314 Niamana $365 Nara $361Kayes $311 Tombouctou $361 Menaka $327 Adjelhoc $165 Segou $428Bamako $502 CATTLE Data from www.malibetail.net MLPI2 project At the same time there are large spatial differences in prices at a given point in time – cattle in Mali
  6. What explains these differences? • Transport costs is certainly part of it • But are there qualitative differences in animals in different markets? • Something of a mix of the two it appears • Price by conformation in Ethiopian markets; Dubuluk in Borana, Adama near Addis. • Body conformation percents in Addis, Adama, Mega, and Dubuluk 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Fat Moderate Thin Very Thin ADAMA DUBULUK 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% Addis Markets Adama Mega Dubuluk Conformation Differences by Market Fat Moderate Thin Very Thin
  7. Very thin Thin Moderate Fat Goat 278 ETB ($16.35) 399 ETB ($23.47) 681 ETB ($40.06) 896 ETB ($52.71) With respect to moderate -59% -41% -- 32% Sheep 226 ETB ($13.29) 324 ETB ($19.06) 556 ETB ($32.71) 729 ETB ($42.88) With respect to moderate -59% -42% -- 31% Average smallstock prices, Dubuluk market Ethiopia July 2010-July 2012 in Birr, 1 USD July 2012 corresponds to around 17 Birr. What kinds of price differences are present in these markets by conformation?
  8. 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 AveragePrice(CFA) Week Mature Cattle Gras Moyen Maigre Average weekly nominal prices by fat (gras), medium (moyen), and thin (maigre) grade across the markets being monitored with the Mali Livestock Market Information System during August 2010 to June 2013. Same pattern in KE, ET, and TZ data. 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 AveragePrice(CFA) Week Mature Sheep Gras Moyen Maigre Overall Patterns in Nominal Prices for Cattle and Sheep in Mali (www.malibetail.net)
  9. What are the prospects for animal fattening? Reason Feed hard to get Don't know how Risk of animal loss Lack of pastures Lack of labor Other things more profitable It takes too long Past losses experienced The price increase not worth it Price risk Ranked in the top 3 25% 23% 20% 20% 13% 9% 8% 6% 3% 2% 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Animal to raise Animal to fatten Small commerce Purchase Durable goods Give as gift Save in pocket Invest in credit / coop Loan to merchant Loan to someone else If you unexpectedly received 50,000 CFA ($100) and had no outstanding demands what would you do with it? Rank for those who had labor migrated before Rank for those who have never labor migrated 2008 survey of 1224 Individuals in Gao, Mopti, and Tombouctou, Mali, MLPI 2 project If you said no to animal fattening, why did you say no? Adds up to more than 100% since percent in top three
  10. Study of fattening operations in Mali, 2008-2009 Kassogue et al. 2010 All cash values are in CFA with 1 USD worth around 450 CFA at this point in time Number Average buying price Average selling price Average total feed cost Average feed cost per day Average days implied return implied daily wage Total value added Mopti cattle 58 92,695 ($205.99) 212,350 ($471.89) 77,088 ($171.31) 81 ($0.18) 66 25% 645 ($1.43) $5,486.41 Sofara cattle 215 91,995 ($204.43) 166,380 ($369.73) 62,205 ($138.23) 57 ($0.13) 65 8% 187 ($0.42) $5,819.33 Koro cattle 54 157,670 ($350.38) 272,465 ($605.48) 110,229 ($244.95) 58 ($0.13) 181 2% 25 ($0.06) $547.92
  11. Do we have suggestions to improve feeding practices from research? From Niger Bush Hay ad libitum 40 g per day per kg liveweight. 70 days Groundnut Haulms (g/day) 0 300 0 600 900 Millet Bran (g/day) 0 0 400 400 400 Purchase Price 13,368 ($29.71) 13,083 ($29.07) 13,184 ($29.30) 13,173 ($29.27) 13,429 ($29.84) Feed Cost 1,101 ($2.45) 2,356 ($5.24) 3,394 ($7.54) 5,933 ($13.18) 7,234 ($16.08) Total Cost 1,301 (2.89) 2,556 ($5.68) 3,594 ($7.99) 6,133 ($13.93) 7,434 ($16.52) Total cost + purchase 14,669 ($32.60) 15,639 ($34.75) 16,778 ($37.28) 19,306 ($42.90) 20,863 ($46.36) Net return 743 ($1.65) 1,899 ($4.22) 2,090 ($4.64) 2,260 ($5.02) -131 (-$0.29) Sales Price 15,412 ($34.25) 17,538 (38.97) 18,868 ($411.93) 21,566 ($47.92) 20,732 ($46.07) Rate of return1 5.1% 12.1% 12.5% 11.7% -0.6% Ayantunde et al. 2008, sheep fattening in Niger, feeding trials, different feed mixes, all values in CFA
  12. Do we have suggestions to improve feeding practices from research? From Mali, sheep fattening. Feed Days Daily Weight Gain Net Profit per animal 60% cotton seed cake, 40% peanut leaves 76 200 g 11,020 ($22.04) 45% cotton seed cake, 47% peanut leaves, 8% millet 84 192 g 9,415 ($18.83) 61% cotton seed cake, 39% sorghum straw 76 124 g 5,850 ($11.70) From Hamidou Nantoume’s work in Kayes, Mali with sheep. Thin sheep sell for about $40, average for $80, fat for $120 Trying to figure out using local resources least cost feeds for the animals Also working to refine technical capacity to do feed analysis (feed trials and lab analysis including Near Infrared Spectroscopy)
  13. Fodder options • There are a series of cowpea accessions that appear to be ideally suited as a fodder crop, yet much of the work so far has been focused on the use of cowpea in West Africa (Singh et al , Ayantunde et al. Kristjanson et al. Tarawali et al.). We would like to see how this could be adapted to east Africa. • Other feed options exist that could be investigated such as moringa oleifera, cajanus cajan, and dolichos lablab. • Transformation options to produce feeds could include • Urea enriched straw • Molasses enriched straw • I am sure there are lots I don’t know about as well
  14. So where to next? • West Africa with the history of Tabaski fattening has more of a tradition with this. • Basic idea should transfer • The fact ranchers are moving into this area indicates a potential opportunity. • Research on least cost rations, and how they change over time. • Introduction of fodder crops in areas where crops grow could present a new income generating opportunity. • May be more promising than attempting crops like maize that are not going to make it in most cases.
  15. 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 777 1926 1939 1945 1950 1954 1956 1960 1963 1965 1966 1968 1970 1971 1972 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Cumulative Percent for When a Cultivated Plot was Established – Borana &Guji, LAND, Ethiopia
  16. Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy (NIRS) training .
  17. Boran cattle passing through markets
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