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International Journal of Advanced Engineering, Management and Science (IJAEMS) [Vol-3, Issue-6, Jun- 2017]
https://dx.doi.org/10.24001/ijaems.3.6.10 ISSN: 2454-1311
www.ijaems.com Page | 675
Regeneration of simple and complicated curves
using Fourier series
Dr. Firas. Husham Al-Mukhtar
Computer Science Department, Knowledge University, Kurdistan Region, Iraq
Abstract— This paper intended to demonstrate how to
regenerate the simple forms and the complicated patterns
composed of sine curves using Fourier series. The result
shows that the Fourier series is a preferred method over
other methods described in this paper. The experimental
result of the regenerated patterns proves the efficiency
and the reliability of the proposed method.
Keywords— Sinusoidal Curves, least Square Regression
and Fourier series.
I. INTRODUCTION
Many high quality and high trusted printed documents
have a set of forms & models constructed upon a family
of curves and specially generated using limited functions
like sinusoidal formulas. Some of these curves are
boarders, guilloches and a portrait drawing found within
the banknote document and stamp document.
Depending on the characteristics of the process being
studied, a method of analysis could be used to extract the
useful data picked with their main features to find out the
hidden relationships and implied in the tabulated original
form.
Different mathematical methods may be used for estimate
and extract the suitable featured data of these models.
Fourier series method can be used among others like least
square or latent Root Regression methods to do the
extraction and the estimation of the suitable featured data
needed for the reconstruction & the regeneration of the
original printed models. The Fourier series and Fourier
transform (FT) is without doubt an important tool not
only in the field of modern signal - and information
processing, but also in other engineering sciences. For
instance, Fourier transform contribute greatly to the
sampling theory [1], time-frequency analysis [2], and
wavelet theory [3], which constitutes the foundations of
today’s digital world [4, 5, 6]. One of the important
results concerning Fourier series and FT is the so called
Riemann- Lebesgue’s Lem (RLL). Its version for the FT
asserts that the FT of an integrable signal 𝑓 ∈ 𝐿1
(𝑅) on
the real line has a regular behavior, in the sense that it is
continuous, and vanishes at infinity, i.e. it converges to 0
as |𝜔| → ∞ Analogously, for the Fourier series, it says
that the Fourier coefficients of a w.l.o.g. 2π-periodic
functions, which are each integrable on w.l.o.g [-π, π],
decay with increasing index toward 0.
II. STATISTICAL METHODS
The model of multiple linear regressions explains the
dependent variable yi by a linear function of k explanatory
variables. So in a sample of n observations the model can
be written as [7]
 
Inσ)εE(ε
0εEεxβy
2


………….. (1)
Where x matrix of explanatory variables with n  k, y
vector of dependent variable with n  1,  vector of
parameter with k  1 and ε is a vector of error with n 
1.
The least squares estimation (the points estimate) of  by
minimizes [7]
   bx-ybx-ys

 ……………….. (2)
So ˆ can be estimate by
  yxxxβˆ 1


…………………… (3)
The matrix of x must have rank k. The unbiased estimator
for
2
 is
 k-n
ee
s2 
 ………….. (4)
Where e is a vector or error with n  1  βˆx-ye  to
measure the degree of linear association between a vector
y and a set of k vectors x we use the coefficient of
determination which define by R2
with equation [7]
  

n
i
iy
1
2
n
1i
2
i
2
y-e-1R …………… (5)
So, some types forms for simple and multiple linear
Regression can define like [7]
1-
i
k
kk
2
22110i εx...xxy  
International Journal of Advanced Engineering, Management and Science (IJAEMS) [Vol-3, Issue-6, Jun- 2017]
https://dx.doi.org/10.24001/ijaems.3.6.10 ISSN: 2454-1311
www.ijaems.com Page | 676
2- i
β
2
β
10i εxxβy 21

3- ikk22110i εxβ...xβxββy 
4- iiii εxβ
α
1
y 
Some basic assumptions for model (1) are not satisfied so
we can’t use equation (3) to estimate the vector  [7].
If the model define with
2
Wσ)εE(ε
0E(ε(εxβy


………….
(6)
Where W is a sale matrix and w-1
exist the estimates for
vector  in model (6) when apply the method of least
squares. Define by [8]
  ywxxwxβ
~ 1-11-


……… (7)
This is a generalized least squares (GLS) estimator of
vector  [8].
In nonlinear regression model which is nonlinear in the
unknown coefficient vector  there are many types of
nonlinear model like [8]
1- The univariate nonlinear regression model with
function
  n,.........,1iεθ,xhy iii  ……. (8)
Where h is a nonlinear function.
2- The M-Variate nonlinear regression model with
function
 
m,.........,2,1j
n,..........,2,1iθ,xhy ijijij

 
……. (9)
So, there is M of these regression equations explaining
n dependent Variable.
3- A system of nonlinear simultaneous equations.
The model define by
  m,.......,2,1jεθ,x,yΦ ijijij  ………
(10)
In this model the equation j the i th endogenous Variable
is an explicit function of other endogenous Variable [9].
For model (8) the function Ln to be minimized define as
    

n
1i
2
ii θ,xh-y
2n
1
θL ………… (11)
For simply we define the model (4) like
  εθhy  …………. (12)
Where y is n  1 Vector of depending Variable, h( θ )
is a n  1 Vector consisting a nonlinear function with
independent Variable Xi like
      ,xh,......,,xh,,xh n21 , by linearizing
the model in (12)
     εθ-θ
θ
θh
θhy 0
0
0 


 …………. (13)
Then the approximate relations to estimate the
parameter depending on (GLS) method like
  εzzzθ~θˆ 1
0


………… (14)
Where
 
θ
θh
z 0



To maximize a function L( θ ) which has a
continuous first and second derivatives with respect to the
Vector θ , there is many Numerical methods of
maximization like [10].
1- The gradient algorithm with equation
 00001 θfHkθθ  ………………(15)
Where
f (0) the gradient evaluated at 0
k0 a scalar
H0 matrix of information
2- The method of steepest ascent
for equation (15) H0 = I (unit matrix)
k0 may be expensive to compute since it requires the
matrix
 
θ
θf 0


of the second partials of L with
respect to θ
3- The Newton-Raphson method with
  1
0
0
θ
θf
H









 and when k = 1 the equation
which gives the maximum of L() because.
   0
1
0
01 θf
θ
θf
θθ









 ………………….(16)
4- The Gauss-Newton method is an approximation to the
Newton-Raphson method in that when the matrix of
second derivatives of L is computed.
International Journal of Advanced Engineering, Management and Science (IJAEMS) [Vol-3, Issue-6, Jun- 2017]
https://dx.doi.org/10.24001/ijaems.3.6.10 ISSN: 2454-1311
www.ijaems.com Page | 677
5- The method of scoring the Newton-Raphson method
for maximizing the average log likelihood
 
n
1t
t θ,yLLog
n
1
uses as H0
6- The method of quadratic hill-climbing, in equation (15)
– H0 can be replace with
  1
0
Iα-
θ
θf









Where  is a scalar is chosen to maximize L( θ ), the
method requires computing the characteristic roots
of the matrix
 
θ
θf 0


III. APPLICATION PART
Fourier method is used to determine the coefficients of a
Fourier series which approximate periodic time series
data which can be defined as [11]:
i=1,2,……..,n
Xij
j=1,2,……..,r
Where r is the number of Replication and n is the
number of observation for any Replicate so Xij is
Replicated values for ith
observation in jth
Replication the
formula for Fourier harmonic model can be define [11]
   






 



m
1k
kk0i
n
1-i2Π
sinβ
n
1-i2Π
cosAAXˆ
The formula for determining estimates can be rewritten
as follows using Semi-amplitude and phase angle like
[12-14].
 
 














m
k 1
kk0i
n
1-i2Π
sinVAXˆ 
Where Semi-amplitude and phase angle like [12-14]
  m,....,3,2,1kBAtan
BA
kk
1-
2
k
2
k


k
kV

Tue following figures give as example of sine function
which is a part of Fourier model the main aim of the
research was to build w sine ware model (equation) using
the method is part (1). Then use the build model to graph
any sine graph [12-14].
Fig.1: example for sine wave function
International Journal of Advanced Engineering, Management and Science (IJAEMS) [Vol-3, Issue-6, Jun- 2017]
https://dx.doi.org/10.24001/ijaems.3.6.10 ISSN: 2454-1311
www.ijaems.com Page | 678
Let us have the following control point is periodic in lag equal to 22 and we want to estimate the Fourier model with min
error [12-14].
Table.1: The sine wave control point
1.1 1.9 2.7 3.2 4.0 4.2 5.0 5.6 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.3
6.2 6.0 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.2 2.7 2.2 1.6 0.82
0.25 -0.4 -1.01 -1.5 -1.9 -2.25 -2.6 -2.6 -2.7 -2.5 -1.9 -1.65
-1.20 -0.75
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 20 40 60
Series1
International Journal of Advanced Engineering, Management and Science (IJAEMS) [Vol-3, Issue-6, Jun- 2017]
https://dx.doi.org/10.24001/ijaems.3.6.10 ISSN: 2454-1311
www.ijaems.com Page | 679
Then by using Mini-Tab package we write a program to estimate the model (the Fourier harmonic model) with harmonic
equal to 4 and by using the method in part 1 we estimate the model with following parameter [12-14].
K Semi-Amplitude Phase angle
1 4.38 -0.34
2 0.46 0.11
3 0.12 0.85
4 0.18 0.23
Where  

m
1i
n
1j
ij0 nxrxA
Then we estimate the harmonic function from the observation give in table (1) and plot it with actual control point data like
in figure (2 ) the result show the model was good representing for the data and can be use to make a sine wave plot with
small error [12-14].
Table.2: The estimate data from sine model
0.75 1.77 2.68 3.41 3.95 4.35 4.72 5.11 5.52 5.96 6.30 6.41
6.34 6.14 5.80 5.43 5.02 4.70 4.31 3.82 3.28 2.75 2.15 1.61
0.88 0.25 -0.40 -1.1 -1.61 -1.92 -2.41 -2.46 -2.51 -2.54 -2.43 -2.01
-1.77 -1.12 -0.254
IV. CONCLUSIONS
From the research we conclude the following
1- The sine wave function can be built using a
nonlinear equation or a harmonic function with
min error the efficiency of the model increases
if the number of observation harmonic number
and replication number Increase but this will
lead to increase the computational time in the
computer.
2- The reconstruction of the models that are
basically build around Sine waves makes it
possible to regenerate the original forms with
new features added, so that it could prevent
further counterfeiting.
REFERENCES
[1] H. Boche and B. Farrell, “Strong divergence of
reconstruction procedures for the paley-wiener space
PW π and the hardy spaceH1,” Journal of
Approximation Theory, vol. 183, pp. 98– 117, 2014.
[2] J. Higgins, Sampling theory in Fourier and signal
analysis: foundations. Oxford University Press,
1996.
[3] K. Gr¨ochenig, Foundations of Time-Frequency
Analysis. Birkh¨auser, 2001.
[4] I. Daubechies, Ten lectures on wavelets. SIAM,
1992, vol. 61.
[5] C. Shannon, “Communication in the presence of
noise,” Proc. IRE, vol. 37, no. 1, pp. 10–21, 1949.
[6] D. Gabor, “Theory of communication. part 1: The
analysis of information,” Journal of the Institution of
Electrical Engineers-Part III: Radio and
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 20 40 60
Series1
International Journal of Advanced Engineering, Management and Science (IJAEMS) [Vol-3, Issue-6, Jun- 2017]
https://dx.doi.org/10.24001/ijaems.3.6.10 ISSN: 2454-1311
www.ijaems.com Page | 680
Communication Engineering, vol. 93, no. 26, pp.
429–441, 1946.
[7] S. Mallat, “A theory for multiresolution signal
decomposition: the wavelet representation,” Pattern
Analysis and Machine Intelligence, IEEE
Transactions on, vol. 11, no. 7, pp. 674–693, 1989.
[8] Generation of non-linear curves using computer
design phd thesis, Firas Husham Al-Mukhtar
[9] Barnett.V.D (1980) fitting straight lines the linear
functional relationship with replicated observations.
[10]Sprent, P. (1981) parallelism and occurrence in
linear regression.
[11]Enslein,K., Ralston , A. , & wilf (1977) statistical
methods for digital computers , New York wiley.
[12] Draper N. R , & Smith H. (1967) Applied
Reqression analysis New York wiley
[13]Otens R. k and Enochson , L.D (1972) , Digital time
Series Analysis , New York , John wiley & Sons.
[14]Otnes , R.k and Enochson L.D (1978) , Applied
Time Series Analysis , New York , John wiley &
Sons.

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Regeneration of simple and complicated curves using Fourier series

  • 1. International Journal of Advanced Engineering, Management and Science (IJAEMS) [Vol-3, Issue-6, Jun- 2017] https://dx.doi.org/10.24001/ijaems.3.6.10 ISSN: 2454-1311 www.ijaems.com Page | 675 Regeneration of simple and complicated curves using Fourier series Dr. Firas. Husham Al-Mukhtar Computer Science Department, Knowledge University, Kurdistan Region, Iraq Abstract— This paper intended to demonstrate how to regenerate the simple forms and the complicated patterns composed of sine curves using Fourier series. The result shows that the Fourier series is a preferred method over other methods described in this paper. The experimental result of the regenerated patterns proves the efficiency and the reliability of the proposed method. Keywords— Sinusoidal Curves, least Square Regression and Fourier series. I. INTRODUCTION Many high quality and high trusted printed documents have a set of forms & models constructed upon a family of curves and specially generated using limited functions like sinusoidal formulas. Some of these curves are boarders, guilloches and a portrait drawing found within the banknote document and stamp document. Depending on the characteristics of the process being studied, a method of analysis could be used to extract the useful data picked with their main features to find out the hidden relationships and implied in the tabulated original form. Different mathematical methods may be used for estimate and extract the suitable featured data of these models. Fourier series method can be used among others like least square or latent Root Regression methods to do the extraction and the estimation of the suitable featured data needed for the reconstruction & the regeneration of the original printed models. The Fourier series and Fourier transform (FT) is without doubt an important tool not only in the field of modern signal - and information processing, but also in other engineering sciences. For instance, Fourier transform contribute greatly to the sampling theory [1], time-frequency analysis [2], and wavelet theory [3], which constitutes the foundations of today’s digital world [4, 5, 6]. One of the important results concerning Fourier series and FT is the so called Riemann- Lebesgue’s Lem (RLL). Its version for the FT asserts that the FT of an integrable signal 𝑓 ∈ 𝐿1 (𝑅) on the real line has a regular behavior, in the sense that it is continuous, and vanishes at infinity, i.e. it converges to 0 as |𝜔| → ∞ Analogously, for the Fourier series, it says that the Fourier coefficients of a w.l.o.g. 2π-periodic functions, which are each integrable on w.l.o.g [-π, π], decay with increasing index toward 0. II. STATISTICAL METHODS The model of multiple linear regressions explains the dependent variable yi by a linear function of k explanatory variables. So in a sample of n observations the model can be written as [7]   Inσ)εE(ε 0εEεxβy 2   ………….. (1) Where x matrix of explanatory variables with n  k, y vector of dependent variable with n  1,  vector of parameter with k  1 and ε is a vector of error with n  1. The least squares estimation (the points estimate) of  by minimizes [7]    bx-ybx-ys   ……………….. (2) So ˆ can be estimate by   yxxxβˆ 1   …………………… (3) The matrix of x must have rank k. The unbiased estimator for 2  is  k-n ee s2   ………….. (4) Where e is a vector or error with n  1  βˆx-ye  to measure the degree of linear association between a vector y and a set of k vectors x we use the coefficient of determination which define by R2 with equation [7]     n i iy 1 2 n 1i 2 i 2 y-e-1R …………… (5) So, some types forms for simple and multiple linear Regression can define like [7] 1- i k kk 2 22110i εx...xxy  
  • 2. International Journal of Advanced Engineering, Management and Science (IJAEMS) [Vol-3, Issue-6, Jun- 2017] https://dx.doi.org/10.24001/ijaems.3.6.10 ISSN: 2454-1311 www.ijaems.com Page | 676 2- i β 2 β 10i εxxβy 21  3- ikk22110i εxβ...xβxββy  4- iiii εxβ α 1 y  Some basic assumptions for model (1) are not satisfied so we can’t use equation (3) to estimate the vector  [7]. If the model define with 2 Wσ)εE(ε 0E(ε(εxβy   …………. (6) Where W is a sale matrix and w-1 exist the estimates for vector  in model (6) when apply the method of least squares. Define by [8]   ywxxwxβ ~ 1-11-   ……… (7) This is a generalized least squares (GLS) estimator of vector  [8]. In nonlinear regression model which is nonlinear in the unknown coefficient vector  there are many types of nonlinear model like [8] 1- The univariate nonlinear regression model with function   n,.........,1iεθ,xhy iii  ……. (8) Where h is a nonlinear function. 2- The M-Variate nonlinear regression model with function   m,.........,2,1j n,..........,2,1iθ,xhy ijijij    ……. (9) So, there is M of these regression equations explaining n dependent Variable. 3- A system of nonlinear simultaneous equations. The model define by   m,.......,2,1jεθ,x,yΦ ijijij  ……… (10) In this model the equation j the i th endogenous Variable is an explicit function of other endogenous Variable [9]. For model (8) the function Ln to be minimized define as       n 1i 2 ii θ,xh-y 2n 1 θL ………… (11) For simply we define the model (4) like   εθhy  …………. (12) Where y is n  1 Vector of depending Variable, h( θ ) is a n  1 Vector consisting a nonlinear function with independent Variable Xi like       ,xh,......,,xh,,xh n21 , by linearizing the model in (12)      εθ-θ θ θh θhy 0 0 0     …………. (13) Then the approximate relations to estimate the parameter depending on (GLS) method like   εzzzθ~θˆ 1 0   ………… (14) Where   θ θh z 0    To maximize a function L( θ ) which has a continuous first and second derivatives with respect to the Vector θ , there is many Numerical methods of maximization like [10]. 1- The gradient algorithm with equation  00001 θfHkθθ  ………………(15) Where f (0) the gradient evaluated at 0 k0 a scalar H0 matrix of information 2- The method of steepest ascent for equation (15) H0 = I (unit matrix) k0 may be expensive to compute since it requires the matrix   θ θf 0   of the second partials of L with respect to θ 3- The Newton-Raphson method with   1 0 0 θ θf H           and when k = 1 the equation which gives the maximum of L() because.    0 1 0 01 θf θ θf θθ           ………………….(16) 4- The Gauss-Newton method is an approximation to the Newton-Raphson method in that when the matrix of second derivatives of L is computed.
  • 3. International Journal of Advanced Engineering, Management and Science (IJAEMS) [Vol-3, Issue-6, Jun- 2017] https://dx.doi.org/10.24001/ijaems.3.6.10 ISSN: 2454-1311 www.ijaems.com Page | 677 5- The method of scoring the Newton-Raphson method for maximizing the average log likelihood   n 1t t θ,yLLog n 1 uses as H0 6- The method of quadratic hill-climbing, in equation (15) – H0 can be replace with   1 0 Iα- θ θf          Where  is a scalar is chosen to maximize L( θ ), the method requires computing the characteristic roots of the matrix   θ θf 0   III. APPLICATION PART Fourier method is used to determine the coefficients of a Fourier series which approximate periodic time series data which can be defined as [11]: i=1,2,……..,n Xij j=1,2,……..,r Where r is the number of Replication and n is the number of observation for any Replicate so Xij is Replicated values for ith observation in jth Replication the formula for Fourier harmonic model can be define [11]                m 1k kk0i n 1-i2Π sinβ n 1-i2Π cosAAXˆ The formula for determining estimates can be rewritten as follows using Semi-amplitude and phase angle like [12-14].                   m k 1 kk0i n 1-i2Π sinVAXˆ  Where Semi-amplitude and phase angle like [12-14]   m,....,3,2,1kBAtan BA kk 1- 2 k 2 k   k kV  Tue following figures give as example of sine function which is a part of Fourier model the main aim of the research was to build w sine ware model (equation) using the method is part (1). Then use the build model to graph any sine graph [12-14]. Fig.1: example for sine wave function
  • 4. International Journal of Advanced Engineering, Management and Science (IJAEMS) [Vol-3, Issue-6, Jun- 2017] https://dx.doi.org/10.24001/ijaems.3.6.10 ISSN: 2454-1311 www.ijaems.com Page | 678 Let us have the following control point is periodic in lag equal to 22 and we want to estimate the Fourier model with min error [12-14]. Table.1: The sine wave control point 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.2 4.0 4.2 5.0 5.6 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.4 5.0 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.2 2.7 2.2 1.6 0.82 0.25 -0.4 -1.01 -1.5 -1.9 -2.25 -2.6 -2.6 -2.7 -2.5 -1.9 -1.65 -1.20 -0.75 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 20 40 60 Series1
  • 5. International Journal of Advanced Engineering, Management and Science (IJAEMS) [Vol-3, Issue-6, Jun- 2017] https://dx.doi.org/10.24001/ijaems.3.6.10 ISSN: 2454-1311 www.ijaems.com Page | 679 Then by using Mini-Tab package we write a program to estimate the model (the Fourier harmonic model) with harmonic equal to 4 and by using the method in part 1 we estimate the model with following parameter [12-14]. K Semi-Amplitude Phase angle 1 4.38 -0.34 2 0.46 0.11 3 0.12 0.85 4 0.18 0.23 Where    m 1i n 1j ij0 nxrxA Then we estimate the harmonic function from the observation give in table (1) and plot it with actual control point data like in figure (2 ) the result show the model was good representing for the data and can be use to make a sine wave plot with small error [12-14]. Table.2: The estimate data from sine model 0.75 1.77 2.68 3.41 3.95 4.35 4.72 5.11 5.52 5.96 6.30 6.41 6.34 6.14 5.80 5.43 5.02 4.70 4.31 3.82 3.28 2.75 2.15 1.61 0.88 0.25 -0.40 -1.1 -1.61 -1.92 -2.41 -2.46 -2.51 -2.54 -2.43 -2.01 -1.77 -1.12 -0.254 IV. CONCLUSIONS From the research we conclude the following 1- The sine wave function can be built using a nonlinear equation or a harmonic function with min error the efficiency of the model increases if the number of observation harmonic number and replication number Increase but this will lead to increase the computational time in the computer. 2- The reconstruction of the models that are basically build around Sine waves makes it possible to regenerate the original forms with new features added, so that it could prevent further counterfeiting. REFERENCES [1] H. Boche and B. Farrell, “Strong divergence of reconstruction procedures for the paley-wiener space PW π and the hardy spaceH1,” Journal of Approximation Theory, vol. 183, pp. 98– 117, 2014. [2] J. Higgins, Sampling theory in Fourier and signal analysis: foundations. Oxford University Press, 1996. [3] K. Gr¨ochenig, Foundations of Time-Frequency Analysis. Birkh¨auser, 2001. [4] I. Daubechies, Ten lectures on wavelets. SIAM, 1992, vol. 61. [5] C. Shannon, “Communication in the presence of noise,” Proc. IRE, vol. 37, no. 1, pp. 10–21, 1949. [6] D. Gabor, “Theory of communication. part 1: The analysis of information,” Journal of the Institution of Electrical Engineers-Part III: Radio and -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 20 40 60 Series1
  • 6. International Journal of Advanced Engineering, Management and Science (IJAEMS) [Vol-3, Issue-6, Jun- 2017] https://dx.doi.org/10.24001/ijaems.3.6.10 ISSN: 2454-1311 www.ijaems.com Page | 680 Communication Engineering, vol. 93, no. 26, pp. 429–441, 1946. [7] S. Mallat, “A theory for multiresolution signal decomposition: the wavelet representation,” Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, IEEE Transactions on, vol. 11, no. 7, pp. 674–693, 1989. [8] Generation of non-linear curves using computer design phd thesis, Firas Husham Al-Mukhtar [9] Barnett.V.D (1980) fitting straight lines the linear functional relationship with replicated observations. [10]Sprent, P. (1981) parallelism and occurrence in linear regression. [11]Enslein,K., Ralston , A. , & wilf (1977) statistical methods for digital computers , New York wiley. [12] Draper N. R , & Smith H. (1967) Applied Reqression analysis New York wiley [13]Otens R. k and Enochson , L.D (1972) , Digital time Series Analysis , New York , John wiley & Sons. [14]Otnes , R.k and Enochson L.D (1978) , Applied Time Series Analysis , New York , John wiley & Sons.