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Representing Industrial decarbonization Options in TIMES Belgium model

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Representing Industrial decarbonization Options in TIMES Belgium model

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Representing Industrial decarbonization Options in TIMES Belgium model
Dr. Partha Das, VITO NV (The Flemish institute for technological research), Belgium.

Representing Industrial decarbonization Options in TIMES Belgium model
Dr. Partha Das, VITO NV (The Flemish institute for technological research), Belgium.

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Representing Industrial decarbonization Options in TIMES Belgium model

  1. 1. SESAM@VITO-EnergyVille Energy system modelling 15 + 3 PhD • Techno-economic model development • Long term system scenarios • Focus on pathways to net-zero 2050 LCA energy technology 5 + 2 PhD • LCA analysis for new energy technologies • Integrate LCA with other sustainability assessment methods/tools SESAM Sustainable Energy Systems Assessment & Modelling
  2. 2. Agenda • Industrial energy consumption and CO2 emission in Belgium • Industry representation within TIMES-BE model • Improved modeling of industrial sector • Various decarbonizing options • Indicative results • Discussion
  3. 3. Belgium is an industry hotspot Source: AidRES project, 2021 Chemical Steel
  4. 4. Belgium Industry: Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission
  5. 5. Steel Ammonia Chlorine Ethylene Oxide High Value Chemicals Other Chemicals Copper Zinc Other Non-Ferrous Cement Lime Glass Bricks Food Pulp & Paper Others and NEU** * Chemical, Mechanical and recycled pulp. * *Non-Energy without chemical non-energy use Ind. Processes BF-BOF & EAF Haber-Bosch & SMR Electrolysis (membrane) Ethylene Oxidation Steam Cracker General (electricity + heat) Copper furnace & recycling Pyrometallurgical process General Process Kiln - Grinding Crushing - calcination Float, container and recycled Drying - Firing General (electricity + heat) Pulp (Ch, Mc, Rc)* + Paper General (electricity + heat) CHP Electricity and Heat Biofuels & Biomass Power Sector Biomass, Biodiesel, Bioethanol and Waste Refineries LPG, Diesel, Gasoline, Kerosene, Fuel Oil, Naphtha and Others Imports Steel Chemical Non-ferrous metals Non-metallic minerals Food Pulp & Paper Others Electricity Coal, Coke, LPG, Naphtha, Nat Gas and Biomass TIMES-BE model: Industrial sector representation
  6. 6. Improved modeling of Industry Sector in TIMES-BE model Technological detailing Decarbonization options Flexibility
  7. 7. Decarbonization options for Industry Sector Fuel Substitution Electrification Molecules CCU/S Iron & Steel BF - H2 Injections EAF (ELC+Biomas) MOE EAF (100% ELC) H-DRI BF/BOF + CCU/S NG-DRI + CCU/S Amine absorption Ammonia Haber–Bosch (H2) Pyrolysis SMR+CCUS High Value Chemicals Electro plastics MTO MTA Advanced steam crackers & CCS Other Chemicals Heat pumps Electric steam boilers Electrode Steam boilers Electric heaters Hydrogen boilers Hydrogen heaters Cement Waste and biomass Plasma heaters H2 substitution of fuel in Kiln Amine absorption CCS-oxy fuel MEA Glass Green methane 100% electric Electric boosting H2 heaters Amine absorption
  8. 8. Decarbonization options for Industry Sector Fuel Substitution Electrification Molecules CCU/S Brick Green CH4 Microwave heaters Microwave-assisted gas firing (MAGF) H2 heaters Amine absorption Lime Waste and biomass Plasma heaters H2 substitution of fuel in Kiln Amine absorption Other non-metallic minerals Electric tunnel kiln H2 -based high temperature heat Amine absorption Copper H2 anode furnace Zink Biogas burners Electric burners Amine absorption Other non-ferrous metals Biogas burners Electric heaters H2 based heaters Amine absorption Food Electric boilers Heat pump Electric heaters H2 boilers Pulp and Paper Electric boilers Heat pump Electric heaters
  9. 9. Coal, Coke, Nat Gas, Electricity, Fuel Oil, Diesel, Ind. Waste (Sludge), Biomass Blast Furnace Slag Hydrogen, Electricity, Biomass, Waste Clay,… Current Cement Production Route Cement Grinding Kiln Milling EAF DRI Alternative Cement Production Routes CO2 capture Hydrogen/Fuel switch Kiln (Refurbish) CCU/S Kiln (BREF) Milling & Grinding (refurbish) Milling & Grinding (BREF) Plasma Torch Clinker substitutes (Calcinated Clay) CO2 Heat Waste Example: Cement production routes in TIMES-BE model
  10. 10. Coal, Coke, Nat Gas, Electricity, Coke Oven Gas, Blast Furnace Gas, Fuel Oil, Ind. Waste Current Steel Production Finishing Steel EAF BOF BF Coke Plant Sinter Plant Iron Ore, Steel Scrap, Quick Lime, Alloys, etc EAF DRI Alternative Steel Production DRI CO2 capture Hydrogen Molten Oxide Electrolysis Process gas hydrogen enrichment EAF CCU/S Alkaline Electrolysis Smelting Reduction H2 Plasma Smelting Reduction Hydrogen, Electricity, Low Carbon Heat Example: Steel production routes in TIMES-BE model
  11. 11. • We run a scenario with CO2 price of 80 €/ton in 2020 and 350 €/ton in 2050 • Industrial CO2 emission is about 2.6 Mt in 2050 compared to 24.6 Mt in 2020 • Decarbonization technologies are being picked up by the model for certain sub-sectors in 2050 • Choice of electricity is seen in sectors like pulp and paper (heat pump), food (heat pump), fiber-glass (electric boosting), lime (plasma kiln), zinc (electric burners), other chemical (CHP) • Hydrogen based heating for bricks, hollow glass, and lime sector • Substantial amount of CO2 capture, mainly to capture process related CO2 emissions. Total CO2 capture in 2050 is 12.56 Mt • Chemical, cement and lime contributes to most of the captured CO2 Initial observations from the model run
  12. 12. Developing Input data related to improved industry sector modeling • Many industrial decarbonization technologies have low technological readiness level (TRL) • Compiling realistic data e.g., costs, life, efficiency, start-year for these technologies are challenging • Converting an aggregated process into sub-processes needs realistic input data (e.g., input to output ratio for material and energy consumption, emission factors, other attributes) • We rely on industry and consultancy reports, research articles and stakeholder consultations • We closely work with industry partners in Belgium in multiple projects to develop these technological assumption
  13. 13. Lessons learned from improved modeling of industry • Technological improvements of low TRL technologies should be regularly tracked for updates of data • Model outputs should be examined for sensitivities of low TRL technology parameters • Modeling intermediate processes allows decarbonizing a certain sub-process • It allows effective tracking of process and combustion related emission • It also allows flexibility to be linked to a specific intermediate process • Modeling final commodity demands allows validating realistic commodity prices from model output • Modeling of flexibility for industrial processes impacts largely on model run-time
  14. 14. • Further validation and refinement of data for low TRL decarbonization options (On going) • Prioritize certain industrial processes to be modeled as flexible (On going) • Parametric runs for various CO2 prices and Net Zero GHG emission scenario (End of the year) Future Work
  15. 15. Thank You partha.das@vito.be juan.correalaguna@vito.be

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