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Green hydrogen opportunities: Identifying success factors for market development and building enabling conditions - Joseph Cordonnier, OECD

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Green hydrogen opportunities: Identifying success factors for market development and building enabling conditions - Joseph Cordonnier, OECD

  1. 1. GREEN HYDROGEN OPPORTUNITIES 1 November 2022 Joseph Cordonnier Industry Programme Analyst Identifying success factors for market development and building enabling conditions https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/green-hydrogen-opportunities- for-emerging-and-developing-economies_53ad9f22-en
  2. 2. • Currently industry main consumer of hydrogen. • Green hydrogen has a large potential to transform and decarbonise industry, transport and power sectors. 2 Hydrogen is a key solution for a net-zero transition Framework for industry’s net- zero transition (September 2022) 2022-2024 implementation in Indonesia and Thailand Green Hydrogen opportunities for emerging and developing economies (November 2022) • Self-assessment questionnaire • Case studies • Synthesis of policy toolboxes Approach of the Working Paper • Understanding the value chain and overall country potential. • Understanding the business cases and economics factors • Identifying suitable policies to bridge the viability gap and develop the market.
  3. 3. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Share of TFC EJ Scenarios of global hydrogen demand in 2050 Hydrogen in TFC (EJ) % of TFC 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% IEA Net-Zero Scenario IRENA WETO Cumulative emissions reduction by mitigation measure to reach Net Zero emissions by 2050 Reduced energy demand Renewables Electrification Low-carbon hydrogen CCUS Other fuel shifts 3 Growing Hydrogen contribution to the global energy mix to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 CCUS includes both Biomass-based and Fossil-Fuel based projects. Energy Efficiency includes Technology performance, Behaviour and avoided demand. Sources: IEA (2021), Net Zero by 2050 & IRENA (2022), World Energy Transitions Outlook: 1.5°C Pathway TFC: Total Final Energy Consumption ➢ Green hydrogen may contribute to around 10% of the cumulative emissions reductions required to achieve net-zero.
  4. 4. 4 Several industrial subsectors are often considered as “no-regret” when prioritizing potential usages of green hydrogen ➢ Green hydrogen should be prioritised for applications where other decarbonisation options are limited.
  5. 5. 5 Hydrogen is today consumed mainly by the manufacturing industry and the industry sector demand may triple by 2050 Hydrogen demand for 2020 excludes hydrogen as part of the mix of off-gases for steel production. DRI = direct reduced iron; HVC = high-value chemicals; Int = international; NG = natural gas Source: IRENA (2022), Global hydrogen trade to meet the 1.5°C climate goal: Part I – Trade outlook for 2050 and way forward INDUSTRY TRANSPORT POWER
  6. 6. 6 Addressing the value chain of green hydrogen is crucial in developing national strategies ➢ Hydrogen is currently mainly produced and consumed at the same location, in industrial facilities. By 2050, net zero scenarios estimate that 25% of hydrogen could be globally traded by 2050.
  7. 7. 7 Upcoming OECD study provides a toolbox comprising of 3 elements to help countries build an enabling environment
  8. 8. • Illustrative business case for a co-located project of a greenfield steel plant of 1 Mtpa capacity. • The breakdown is sensitive to parameters such as: • the access to renewable electricity sources • the electricity storage needs; • the availability of geological storage. • High investment costs along the value chain require to share risks between stakeholders, via policy instruments, enabling conditions, governance scheme and financing conditions. 8 Illustrative green steel business case (CAPEX) Illustrative calculation based on 50% solar and 50% onshore wind in a favourable location (LCOE USD 30/MWh), USD 550/kW electrolyser costs, 50% capacity utilisation rate for the electrolyser, and availability of geological storage for H2.
  9. 9. 9 Illustrative green steel business case (annualised costs). Actions along the value chain can lower the final cost of green steel. Electrolyser CAPEX contributes of green H2 landed cost OPEX of DRI-EAF driven by the cost of the raw materials and operational excellence How to make projects investable if production costs remain higher than conventional steel? Competitive advantage of locations with abundant renewable energy sources.
  10. 10. Example of case study HIF Global – e-fuels – Chile Demonstration plant (FID 2021) • 3.4 MW onshore wind turbine • 1.2 MW electrolyser • 143 tonnes of green hydrogen annually • Direct Air Capture of CO2 • 130 000 litres of e-gasoline annually HIF Cabo Negro (construction from 2023) • 325 MW onshore wind turbine • 240 MW electrolyser • 66 000 000 litres of e-gasoline annually Business rationale • Green electricity below USD 2 cents/kWh • Synthetic fuels can be sold at a premium Financing • The demonstration project HIF Haru Oni has raised over USD 60 million in total • USD 260 million capital increase in April 2022 FID: Final Investment Decision Source: HIF Global, 2022
  11. 11. 11 Lessons learnt from case studies ➢ As the market matures, the OECD plans to complement its case studies analysis to identify the regulations, market conditions and financing schemes of green hydrogen projects.
  12. 12. 12 Possible measures for policy makers to facilitate market creation and market growth ➢ Various schemes have been identified in policy toolboxes; international co-operation and dialogue could help assessing the cost/benefits of regulations (to be) implemented in various geographies to develop green hydrogen.
  13. 13. • Technical assistance and sharing best practices ➢ Help identify suitable technologies, business cases, knowledge gaps, and successful projects for replication. ➢ Design suitable training and technical assistance to support capacity building, skills development, knowledge- transfer and innovation required for local value chain development. • Regulations, Codes, Standards ➢ Track the production and consumption of hydrogen ➢ Define low-carbon hydrogen, based on system boundaries and emission intensity thresholds. • International Dialogue ➢ Foster alignment of environmental regulations, industrial policies, trade rules. ➢ Analyse impact of carbon prices, for instance carbon border adjustment mechanism of the EU to avoid carbon leakage. • Financing platforms, such as Investment matching platforms ➢ Develop tools like blended finance facilities to mobilise climate finance. ➢ Track financial flows and projects. 13 International organisations can play a role to foster international collaboration and create an enabling environment for investment
  14. 14. GREEN HYDROGEN OPPORTUNITIES 14 November 2022 Joseph Cordonnier Industry Programme Analyst Identifying success factors for market development and building enabling conditions https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/green-hydrogen-opportunities- for-emerging-and-developing-economies_53ad9f22-en

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