Workshop on Flood management in a transboundary context, 13-14.12.2011, Jacob Host Madsen


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Effects of climate change on flood risks
Workshop on “Flood management in a transboundary context”, 13-14.12.2011, Zagreb, Croatia

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Workshop on Flood management in a transboundary context, 13-14.12.2011, Jacob Host Madsen

  1. 1. Effects of climate change on flood risksJacob Høst-MadsenDirector, consultancy
  2. 2. Climate change is here and will have impact
  3. 3. Water Stress Changes by 202580% of futurestress frompopulation& developmentnotclimate changeVorosmarty et al., 2000
  4. 4. Climate change adaptation: Many stakeholders• Countries• Ministries• EU• Insurance industry• Local communities• Water supply works• Citizens• Regions• Health authorities• Emergency units• ……….
  5. 5. What is IWRM ?A process which promotes co-ordinated development and management of water, landand related resources in order to maximize the economic and social welfare in anequitable manner without compromising the sustainability of the nature. Securing basic water needs takes 50 l/cap/day Securing our basic diet takes 2500 l/cap/day Bio-fuels using up to 10-30,000 l water per l bio-fuel!
  6. 6. Water governance and IWRM: A never ending cycle! Vision Monitoring Situation analysis Awareness Participation CommitmentImplementation Capacity Strategy IWRM Plan
  7. 7. WR management issues The basin as the basic management unitOpportunities for modelling
  8. 8. IWRM where? IWRM processes focus on critical water resources issues of any basin
  9. 9. New climate change guidelines from DHI• Working with climate change: Water resources guidelines• Working with climate change: Urban water guidelines• Working with climate change: Marine water guidelines
  10. 10. The guidelines can provide answers to:• Where and how to do screening and detail investigations?• How to do adaptation and intelligent planning?• How to do contingency planning?• How to see adaptation planning as a continued effort?
  11. 11. Example: Guidelines for the analyses of theimpacts from climate changes on sewer systemsPurpose:• Safeguard the future service level• Identity new flood risk zones, due to climate changes• Estimation of flood damanges• Preparation of flood mitigation plans (climate adoptions)
  12. 12. The road towards informed decisions – according to the climateguidelines1. Will there be a problem ?2. How big will it be ?3. When will it arrive ?4. What will it cost ?5. How can damages be reduced ?
  13. 13. Informed decisions – Urban water• Avoid contact with mixtures of rain water and wastewater• Protection of vital functions in society, i.e. electricity, water, heating, communication and hospitals,• Economical estimates of damages to society• Develop emergency plans
  14. 14. Flood damage reduction• Reduction of the flood extent• Reduction of the interaction with the flood• Control of the surface runoff and subsequently flooded areas• Emergency plans and actions• Flood warning and information systems
  15. 15. Example: Greve, Denmark
  16. 16. Example – Greve Denmark
  17. 17. The intelligent city
  18. 18. The football field: A new flood control storage - Denmark?
  19. 19. Intelligent planning - Porto Alegre - Brazil
  20. 20. Get the water out of the sewerage system
  21. 21. DHI Climate Change DSSPowerful decision support for climate changeadaptation Applications Features Benefits • Analyses of impacts from different • Current and future climate information • Strong decision support emission scenarios and different • Scenario data • Easy analysis from Global global circulation models • Vulnerability information Circulation model to local impact • Analysis of climate vulnerability, • Impacts information • Output tailored for stakeholders undertainty, and downscaling • Adaptation impacts and decision makers • View and display information • Analysis tools • Part of DHI Solution Software concerning current and future climate • Data exchange scenarios • Downscaling • Uncertainty • Comparison of adaptation measures • Forum for decisions • Presentation and analysis • Database.
  22. 22. Downscaling & corrections GCM projections: Dynamical Downscaling RCM projections: Statistical Downscaling Bias Corrections Weather generators, …. Local Climate simulations: Local Hydrological simulations:
  23. 23. Scenario 1 Scenario 2
  24. 24. Climate change tool In MIKE by DHI
  25. 25. Case: The Nile Basin Decision Support System
  26. 26. The Nile Basin DSS ProjectClient : Nile Basin Initiative, Water ResourcesManagement Project, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.Lead Consultant : DHISub-consultants:• Riverside Technologies, USA• Mott MacDonald, UK• Tropics Consultants, Ethiopia.• Funding : World Bank• Project Period (May 2009 – May 2012)• Project Scope (WP1 : IT Project) – Software Requirement Analysis – Software Architecture and Design – Software Development and Testing – Proof-of-concept• WP2 (NB DSS Application within the Nile Basin) – Software Testing – Full scale application
  27. 27. Background (Nile Basin DSS)• Key Treaties and EventsVarious Bi-lateral AgreementsSudan/Egypt and upstream riparians (no downstreamImpacts unless agreed with Sudan/Egypt)High Aswan Dam (1955)Capacity 111 BCM.Nile Basin Treaty (1959):55.5 BCM/yr for Egypt18.5 BCM/yr for Sudan.Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) Established (1999)Under the NILE COM (Ministers of Water Affairs)• promote cooperation and co-ordination in the Basin
  28. 28. Nile Basin water resourcesmanagementEgypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, DR Congo, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda Challenge The 9 riparian countries of the Nile river basin, represented by the Nile Basin Initiative, have agreed to develop the water resources of the 3 million km2 Nile river basin in a cooperative manner; share socioeconomic benefits, and promote regional peace and security. The development of shared and accepted water resources management technologies is an important element in achieving this common vision. Solution The Nile Basin decision support system (NB DSS) integrates climatological, hydrological and environmental data with sophisticated water simulation models, together with sector economic production models, cost-benefit and multi-criteria analysis tools. Value The NB DSS provides accepted processes and tools for quantifying the benefits of water and for sharing of information. It enables transparent and objective prioritisation of investments and contributes to sustainable water resources management in the Nile Basin. “The Nile Basin decision support system will provide the basis for agreement on and development of sustainable water resources projects in the Nile Basin.” Dr. Abdulkarim H. Seid, DSS Lead Specialist Water Resources Management Project, Nile Basin Initiative
  29. 29. Why a Nile Basin DSS? Objective: To enhance capacity to support basin wide communication, information exchange, and identifying trans-boundary opportunities for cooperative development of the Nile Basin water resources.The Nile Basin DSS is expected to be an agreed upon tool that will be accepted and used by all riparian countries in the management of the shared Nile water resources.
  30. 30. NBI Institutional Mandates NBI-Secretariat Objective: Achieving efficient trans-boundary management and optimal use of Nile Basin water and water-related resources Basin Development Planning related – Coordination for Subsidiary Action Programs – Support investment financing, mobilization of funding resources – Basin-wide river operations policies
  31. 31. The NB DSS / Institutions• Regional level – Regional Nile Basin DSS Center (NBI, Addis Ababa)• Sub Regional Level – ENTRO (Eastern Nile) – NELSAP (Nile Equatorial Lakes)• National Level – National DSS unit in each of the 9 countries (4 staff pr. Country).
  32. 32. NB DSS - Areas of Concern(determined through stakeholder consultation) Water resources development: main focus on interventions that alter the time and space distribution of water in the basin; involve physical structures. Optimal water resources utilization: Main focus on those planning decisions required to enhance utilization of available water resources, mainly through non-structural interventions. Energy development (hydropower): focuses on development of hydropower potentials in the basin. Rain-fed and irrigated agriculture: area focuses on assessing current productivity and production levels of both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture supporting efforts to increase food production through relevant interventions, such as in the planning of irrigated agriculture.
  33. 33. NB DSS - Areas of Concern(determined through stakeholder consultation) Coping with floods: main focus in the first phase of the DSS shall be to provide information on characteristics of flood prone areas, flow generation, assessing impacts (or benefits) of storage reservoirs on flood control, etc. Coping with droughts: support drought management efforts, including the planning for adaptation to climate change and variability. Watershed and Sediment Management: evaluation of impacts of alternative land use/cover on the hydrology of the river system, the estimation of sediment yield, and reservoir sedimentation. Navigation: focus to identify how navigation might be affected by contemplated interventions and support efforts to minimize the adverse impacts. In addition, navigation benefits shall be considered in the planning and management of storage schemes. Cross cutting issues: Climate change and water quality
  34. 34. The DSS Platform Core Users Notification workgroups Time series GIS Rules Data broker Uncertainty DIMS Job scheduling Database WEB Publishing Time series GIS Scripting Data Models assimilation Scenarios Users Spreadsheets Events & alarms Meta data Change log Models Workflows Scenarios On-line data MCA/CBA Real Time Linked Optimisation models Ensembles Indicators Modeling
  35. 35. Case: Sava
  36. 36. Development of Upper Sava Flood Forecasting System - Sava Basin -
  37. 37. Development of Upper Sava Flood ForecastingSystem- Slovenian Model - Key Figures 10880 km2 Catchment Automatic forcasts issued each hour for the next 6 days Forecasting at 40 Locations
  38. 38. Development of Upper Sava Flood ForecastingSystem- Model Development - MIKE11 model includes: - Modelling of 40 sub-basins - Hydrodynamic modelling of Sava and 20 trib. - Modelling of all important Structures - Comprehensive model calibation/verification Forecasting based on: - Online data from Hydrometric network - Input from meteorological models: (INCA,Aladdin,ECWMF)(Example from model calibration at one of the 40 forecasting locations) - Real time modelling with MIKE 11 including data assimilation at all forecasting locations
  39. 39. Development of Upper Sava Flood ForecastingSystem- Implementation Schedule - 2010 Month 6 Completion of MIKE 11 forecasting model - Forecasting at 40 locations 2010 End of Year Real Time operation – WEB dissemination 2011 - Further Upgrading of Forecasting System - Flood mapping in selected area - Inflow forecasting Provision for upgrade to entire Sava basin
  40. 40. Thanks for your attention