Presentation at ARRCC-CARISSA workshop 29 Jan 2019 to 31 Jan 2019

1. Saurabh Bhardwaj
Regional Workshop
Future Climate Projections and their Applications in South Asia
January 29th – 31st, 2019
ICIMOD, Kathmandu, Nepal
The need of Regional Modelling
for
India

2. Climate
The Energy and Resource Institute (TERI)
Vision: Creating Innovative Solutions for a Sustainable Future
• Autonomous not-for-profit institute est. 1974
• Towards 1982-end, research activities initiated in field of energy,
environment, climate change, water, biotechnology, forestry and
the whole range of sustainable development issue.
• 40 years of experience in working on all facets of environment and
sustainable development issues.
• TERI is headquartered at New Delhi, with regional offices located in
Guwahati, Mumbai, Bangalore, Mukhteshwar and Goa.
• International affiliate Offices in USA, UK, Japan and Africa.
• TERI has 18 divisions and over 1200 employees drawn from diverse
disciplines and highly specialized fields such as engineering,
economics, natural and social science, biotechnology, architecture,
public policy, information science and administration.

3. Climate
Earth Science and Climate Change Division
Centre for Global
Environment Research
Centre for Climate
Modelling
Center for Environment
Studies
• Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability
Assessments policy link
• GHG inventorisation,
mitigation options
• Policy review and
• analysis, international
negotiations
• Capacity building
• Urban & regional air
quality assessment
• Impact assessment
• Indoor air pollution
• Policy analysis, advisory
and capacity building
• Global and Regional
Climate Projections
• Research on Climate
Extremes
• Bias correction tools to
reduce the model
uncertainties, in order to
provide reliable impact
assessments
• Impact assessments
• Cyclone detection and
hazard risk mapping
• Sea level rise and its impact
on coastal inundation
• Integrated impact
assessments
• Multi-hazard risk mapping
Vision: to build climate modeling skills to effectively use it
for better understanding of the regional changes and their
links to policy

4. Background
Climate

5. India context
MoEF-BUR2, 2019
MoEF-BUR2, 2019
MoEF-BUR2, 2019
Significant evidences and analysis on increasing extremes.
Guhathakurta etal., 2015
Climate

6. India context ..cont.
Chaturvedi etal. 2012
Chaturvedi etal. 2012
Krishna Kumar et al., 2009
Projected future change
in number of rainy days
(rainfall >2.5 mm)
during monsoon season
(JJAS).
Projected change in the
intensity (mm/day) of
rainfall on a rainy day.
Significant evidences and
analysis on increasing extremes
in future on India wide /
homogeneous scale
Climate

7. Need for regional modelling
Increasing demand from climate sensitive businesses and
stakeholders
Climate

8. Need for regional modelling … Cont.
Regional state action plans to combat climate change
Increase in Extreme
rainfall in 2030s relative to
baseline
(in %)
Number of low
rainfall days in
2030s relative to
baseline
Climate

9. Need for regional modelling … Cont.
Local level risk assessment needs
Climate Change Mitigation and
Adaptation in ULBs of Telangana
Climate

10. Are they any better?
Monsoonal wet day frequency (precip >= 1mm)
Percentage of heavy precipitation days (precip > 90th percentile of wet days (precip >= 1mm)
• The number of wet
days shows a better
simulated pattern in
PRECIS in the
Western Ghats
region as compared
to Parent GCM
HADGEM2-ES.
North East region is
overestimated in
both the models
(more in HADGEM2-
ES).
• The pattern of heavy
precipitation days is
much better
simulated w.r.t. IMD
observation dataset
in the PRECIS model.
Climate

11. Annual Mean Temperature (time correlation)
Annual Maximum Temperature (time correlation)
• The correlation pattern of
Annual mean and maximum
temperature showing
significant improvement in
PRECIS vs the parent GCM
model HADGEM2-ES.
Climate

12. Climate
Modelling Products/Services
Extreme Scenario Moderate Scenario
Increase in Extreme rainfall in
2030s relative to baseline (%)
Number of low rainfall days in
2030s relative to baseline

13. DSDS 2011
Media coverage
NorWRF 2011
Activities
2011
2010
2015
CRS 2017
DSDS 2012
EOS 2016
EOS 2017

14. Research
Presentations
AMOS 2013
EGU 2011
NorWRF 2011
UPCAR, 2017
WMO-IWM, 2017
Tropmet, 2018

15. Climate
Upcoming Event
Climate Services in India –
Moving the needle
Feb 11th , 2019, New Delhi
Watch the space:
http://wsds.teriin.org/themetic.php

16. Climate
Thank You!
Contact:
Saurabh Bhardwaj
Fellow and Area Convener
Center for Climate Modelling
saurabh.bhardwaj@teri.res.in
TERI, New Delhi, India