Jason Winner, Conservation GIS Manager for Scenic Hudson presents on the new Sea Level Rise Mapper. The mapper is a tool for communities and stakeholders to use to create visualizations of future scenarios of sea level rise. With these maps and information, Scenic Hudson is supporting communities' efforts to develop adaptation plans by helping them to: - create maps of the extent and impacts of inundation and flood zone expansion - understand the locations of key built and natural resources - create graphics that illustrate different sea level rise scenarios in specific communities or stretches of the river - estimate the risks to infrastructure and natural resources and the likelihoods of different inundation events - develop alternative adaptation scenarios and weigh their cost and benefits with respect to built infrastructure and natural resources ** The Sea Level Rise Mapper can be found on Scenic Hudson's website at: http://www.scenichudson.org/slr/mapper For more information, contact Jason Winner at Scenic Hudson at (845) 473-4440 ext 223, or jwinner@scenichudson.org

1. A Roadmap for
Sea Level Rise:
Vulnerability and
Adaptation along the
Hudson River Estuary
Jason Winner,
Conservation
GIS Manager
Mark Wildonger,
Planner
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

2. Overview
•Introduction
•Sea Level Rise Problem
•Roadmap – Planning for Resilience
•Sea Level Rise Modeling and Mapping
•Breakout Groups
•Conclusions and Next Steps
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

3. Introduction
Theme:
Sea Level Rise is “Scary”
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

5. Introduction
Theme:
Sea Level Rise
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
requires Planning

6. A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Introduction

7. Introduction
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Hudson River Sea Level Rise Project Goals:
• Map future inundation zones at a resolution
high enough to support parcel-based decisions
• Identify important at-risk resources and their
levels of vulnerability
• Engage stakeholders with strategies for preser-
vation, restoration, and/or shoreline protection
• Identify decision support tools available to
create a roadmap for adaptation and resilience

8. Climate-Related Impacts
1) Climate Change
2) Storm Surge
3) Sea Level Rise
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge are Additive!
This Project is about Sea Level Rise Only
Introduction

9. Relative sea level change is caused by the
combined effects of global sea level
variations (due to climate change) and local
vertical land movement. When sea level
rises, it amplifies all types of coastal
inundation and associated impacts.
-NOAA Coastal Services Center
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Introduction

10. 1) Current Conditions
2) Sea Level Rise Data, Science, and Projections
3) Local Assets at Risk
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Problem

11. source: NASA A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Problem - Sandy

12. A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Problem - Sandy

13. A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Problem - Sandy

14. A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Problem

15. he imperative to facilitate the persistence of the
nue to provide ecological services that sustain
ptimal balance will require locally-specific tactics
edge, and regional strategies that coordinate efforts
ework.
a
er
e can expect water levels on the Hudson River –
al Dam at Troy - to rise by up to five feet by the end
in during the next century . (see figure 3 on following
Figure 2. Sea level change since 1856, observed
by tidal gauge at the Battery, Manhattan, NYC.
0
100
200
300
400
500
1856 1881 1906 1931 1956 1981 2006
HudsonRiver Sea Level 1856-2009
(inmm, observedat Manhattan)
average= 2.79mm/yr
source:NOAA
Local Sea Level
is more than
1’ higher than 100
years ago
Rate of rise is
accelerating
Sea Level Rise Data and Science
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

16. Source: NOAA
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Data and Science

17. Sea Level Rise Projections:
2020a 2050a 2080a 2100b
Central Range: 1-5” 5-12” 8-23” 11-26”
Rapid Ice Melt: 4-10” 19-29” 41-55” 52-72”
a) From the NYS Sea Level Rise Task Force
b) From the NYS 2100 Commission Report
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Projections

18. •Up to 72” of Sea Level Rise by 2100!
•Local Rate is higher than global average
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Projections

19. • Increased coastal flooding
• Loss of salt water marsh habitat
• Salt water intrusion
• De‐watering and bluff failure
(dropping lake levels)
• Coastal erosion
• Property loss
• Threat to critical infrastructure
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Additional Impacts

20. What’s at Stake?
• 78 Riverfront Communities
• $ Billions of Public & Private Infrastructure
• Historic & Cultural Centers
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Local Assets at Risk

21. • 160+ miles of Estuarine River
• Rich Turtle, Salamander, and Fish Populations
• Globally Rare Freshwater Tidal Habitats
• Thousands of acres of Tidal Wetlands and
Vegetated Shallows
What’s at Stake?
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Local Assets at Risk

22. Sea Level Rise Data
source: Climate Central 2100
TideLevelSeaLevelRiseStormSurge

23. Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap
Community-based Vulnerability Assessment:
1) Getting Started
2) Hazards and Climate
3) People and Communities
4) Built Environment
5) Natural Resources
6) Risk-wise Strategies
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Source: NOAA Coastal Services Center

24. Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap
Getting Started:
a)Define objectives
b)Explore problems
c) Engage stakeholders
d)Identify policies to inform
e) Consider resources
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

25. Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap
Hazards and Climate:
a)Characterize hazards
b)Map hazard areas
c) Capture local knowledge
d)Incorporate scientific
data
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

26. Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap
People and Communities:
a)Social vulnerability
b)Community resilience
c) Trends
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

27. Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap
Built Environment:
a)Assess all infrastructure
b)Physical characteristics
c) Policy impacts
d)Infrastructure exposure
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

28. Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap
Natural Resources:
a)Protective services
b)Additional benefits
c) Potential stressors
d)Policy impacts
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

29. Sea Level Rise Adaptation Roadmap
Risk-Wise Strategies:
a)Integrate hazard mitiga-
tion & community plans
b)Use existing programs to
implement adaptation
projects
c) Document predicted
future conditions
d)Use external drivers as
leverage
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

30. 1) Local Data
2) Inundation and Coastal Flood modeling
3) Resources at Risk
4) Sea Level Rise Mapper
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Sea Level Rise Modeling and Mapping

31. Source: NOAA Digital Coast, www.csc.noaa.gov/slr/viewer
Sea Level Rise Mapping & Analysis
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

32. Source: The Nature Conservancy, www.coastalresilience.org
Sea Level Rise Mapping & Analysis
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

33. Mapping - Data
Elevation Data
• LiDAR data
• High resolution (1m)
• Accurate depiction of water elevations
• National Elevation Dataset (NED)
1/3 arc second (10m resolution)
• Poor resolution
• Hydroflattened
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

34. Mapping - Data
Digital Elevation Models:
10m National Elevation Dataset (NED) vs 1m LiDAR
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
10m NED 1m LiDAR

35. “Sea Level” Tidal Data
Mean sea level is not consistent
NewYork
Poughkeepsie
TroyDam
Tide Gauge
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

36. What is “Mean Sea Level”
• Mean Higher High Water (MHHW)
• Mean High Water (MHW)
• Mean Sea Level = average height of
the water surface over time
• Mean Low Water (MLW)
• Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW)
Tidal Data
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

37. Tidal Data
Source: NOAA
HudsonRiverMeanTidal
Rangevariesfrom3.4’-6.2’
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

38. Hudson River Estuary
Local Tide
Gauges
MHHW
Local
Tide
Gauge
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

39. Hudson River Estuary
Sea Level Rise Modeling
• Bathtub model
uses flat surface
• Modified bathtub model
uses real river elevations
incorporates datum
information
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

40. Hudson River Estuary
Elevation
ElevationBathtub
Model
Modified
Bathtub
Model
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

41. Add Sea Level Rise
Projections
Central Range:
2020: 1-5”
2050: 5-12”
2080: 8-23”
2100: 11-26”
Rapid Ice Melt:
2020: 4-10”
2050: 19-29”
2080: 41-55”
2100: 52-72”
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

42. Add Sea Level Rise
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

43. Add Sea Level Rise
MHHW surface
↓
Subtract LiDAR
↓
Reclassify
↓
New MHHW extents
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

44. Add Sea Level Rise
MHHW Datum
River
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

45. Add Sea Level Rise
MHHW + 36”
RiverMHHW Datum
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise

46. Add Sea Level Rise
MHHW
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
NewYork
Poughkeepsie
TroyDam
Tide Gauge