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Sam Cleaves, Great Marsh Symposium 2013

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Metro Boston
Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
Great Marsh Symposium, Ipswich, MA
November 14, 2013

1
1	
  
Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategy
•  MAPC & Tellus
•  Project Scope:
–  Advisory Committee &
Public Outreach
–  Vulnerability Analysis
–  Regional Adaptation
Goals & Objectives
–  Implementation
Strategies to Reduce
Vulnerability

•  Fall 2013
2
Advisory Committee

3
Predicted Climate Change Impacts
(for MA)

Current Conditions
(1961-1990)

Predicted Range
by 2050

Predicted Range
by 2100

Annual temperature (°F)

46

50 to 51

51 to 56

Winter temperature (°F)

23

25 to 28

27 to 33

Summer temperature (°F)

68

72 to 73

72 to 78

Annual sea surface temp. (°F)

53

56

61

Annual precipitation (in.)

41

5% to 8%

7% to 14%

Winter precipitation (in.)

8

6% to 16%

12% to 30%

Summer precipitation (in)

11

-1% to -3%

-1% to 0%

Sea-level rise (in.)*

--

6 to 16

11 to 79

Streamflow-spring peak flow
(days following Jan. 1)

85

77 to 80

72 to 74

Droughts lasting 1-3 months
(#/30 yrs)

13

18 to 20

16 to 23

Length of growing season
(days/yr)

184

196 to 211

213 to 227

Parameter

Adapted from MA Climate Change Adaptation Report

4
Frequency

5
Source: When It Rains It Pours, Environment America, 2012
Inadequate Infrastructure

6
Littleton, Rt. 119, Collapsed Culvert to Spectacle Pond; Source: MassDOT

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Rccas presentation gm 11_14_13sm

  • 1. Metro Boston Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Great Marsh Symposium, Ipswich, MA November 14, 2013 1 1  
  • 2. Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategy •  MAPC & Tellus •  Project Scope: –  Advisory Committee & Public Outreach –  Vulnerability Analysis –  Regional Adaptation Goals & Objectives –  Implementation Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability •  Fall 2013 2
  • 4. Predicted Climate Change Impacts (for MA) Current Conditions (1961-1990) Predicted Range by 2050 Predicted Range by 2100 Annual temperature (°F) 46 50 to 51 51 to 56 Winter temperature (°F) 23 25 to 28 27 to 33 Summer temperature (°F) 68 72 to 73 72 to 78 Annual sea surface temp. (°F) 53 56 61 Annual precipitation (in.) 41 5% to 8% 7% to 14% Winter precipitation (in.) 8 6% to 16% 12% to 30% Summer precipitation (in) 11 -1% to -3% -1% to 0% Sea-level rise (in.)* -- 6 to 16 11 to 79 Streamflow-spring peak flow (days following Jan. 1) 85 77 to 80 72 to 74 Droughts lasting 1-3 months (#/30 yrs) 13 18 to 20 16 to 23 Length of growing season (days/yr) 184 196 to 211 213 to 227 Parameter Adapted from MA Climate Change Adaptation Report 4
  • 5. Frequency 5 Source: When It Rains It Pours, Environment America, 2012
  • 6. Inadequate Infrastructure 6 Littleton, Rt. 119, Collapsed Culvert to Spectacle Pond; Source: MassDOT
  • 7. Predicted Impacts: What Will It Look & Feel Like? 7 (Source: Kirshen, Douglas et al., 2008. Coastal Flooding in the Northeastern United States due to Climate Change
  • 9. Approach Identify Impacted Sectors: 1.  Human Health and Welfare 2.  Coastal Zone 3.  Natural Resources and Habitat 4.  Built Environment & Key Infrastructure 5.  Local Economy and Government 9
  • 10. Human Health & Welfare Heat-related morbidity & mortality Vector-borne diseases (Lyme, EEE, West Nile) Pollen, Ozone Asthma Algal blooms (Red tide, cyanobacteria) Source: Chartered Institute of Environmental Health Frequency of waterborne diseases (crypto, E coli, giardiasis)
  • 11. Coastal Zone Wetlands have moved over time in relation to sea level rise/changing tides, and will continue to move
  • 12. Coastal Zone Failure of coastal structures and significant adjacent shoreline changes
  • 13. Natural Resource/Habitat •  Maple, beech & birch shift 350-500 miles north •  Lobster & cod shift towards N. Gulf of Maine •  Insect and tree diseases flourish Source: Iverson, L; Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 13 13
  • 14. Built Environment/Infrastructure •  Increasing water tables & saline conditions •  Inundation of septic and WWTP treatment facilities •  Stormwater and CSO systems overload •  Stressed local water supply systems(non-MWRA) •  Infiltration from aging infrastructure 14
  • 15. Local Economy and Government •  Economic activities reliant on ecosystem services: Agriculture, fishing, forestry, recreation/ tourism •  Government (various levels) preparedness and planning •  Government resource needs
  • 16. Outreach •  Advisory Committee Orgs. •  MAPC Subregions: Municipalities •  Cambridge Climate Protection Action Committee •  City of Boston •  The Boston Harbor Association •  Environmental Business Council 16
  • 17. Critical Feedback •  Munis are just starting to address adaptation •  Assistance needed… –  Subdivision regulations revision to account for future precipitation projections –  Benchmarks and setting thresholds at which adaptation measures are implemented –  Inter-municipal coordination, esp. emergency response –  Managed retreat: Zoning to prevent rebuild in vulnerable areas (e.g. Flood/Storm District Overlay) –  Siting Green Infrastructure & LID 17
  • 19. Adaptation Three Key Elements: 1.  Protect 2.  Accommodate 3.  Retreat 4.  Do Nothing NOAA Digital Coast Tool - Coastal Resilience Framework: http://www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/ coastalresilience
  • 20. Protect and Restore Nature’s Defenses •  Floodplains,  wetlands,  stream   corridors,  upland  buffers   •  Natural  landscapes  absorb  rainfall   during  storm  events,  decreasing   flooding,  and  filter  the  air  and   water.   •  Compact  development  and  land   conserva>on  keeps  forested  and   natural  (carbon  absorbing)  lands   intact   •  Trees  provide  shade,  reduce  heat   islands   •  Priority  Protec-on  Areas   •  Priority  Development  Areas  
  • 21. Adaptation Natural Resource Protection •  Protect Wetlands: Update Wetland Bylaws, Restore Deteriorated Wetlands, etc. •  Maintain shoreline features: Planting Dune Grasses, Renourishing Beaches, etc.
  • 22. Protect Floodplains and Upland Buffers
  • 23. Bronson  Brook  During  and  Post  Irene  
  • 24. Local  Codes  &  Regula>ons             Do  They  Discourage  or  Promote  LID?       Do  they  Agree/Conflict  with  Each  Other?       ü  Wetland  Regula>ons   ü  Stormwater  Regula>ons   ü  Zoning  Bylaw  and  Site  Plan  Review   ü  Subdivision  Rules  and  Regula>ons   EPA’s  Water  Quality  Scorecard:    hVp://www.epa.gov/ smartgrowth/pdf/   2009_1208_wq_scorecard.pdf  
  • 25. Wetlands Resources:   •  h>p://www.co.lancaster.pa.us/toolbox/   •  h>p://www.town.duxbury.ma.us/ public_documents/
  • 26. Adaptation Redevelopment/Building Guidelines •  Elevation of the lowest floor two feet above the Base Flood Elevation •  Walls that are “substantially impermeable to the passage of water” (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Flood Proofing Regulations). Source: LA Storm Smart Coasts
  • 27. LID / GI/ Stormwater Bylaws ü  Credits  for  use  of  LID/GI     ü  General  Permit  for  Certain  Ac>vi>es   ü  Engineering  Review  Fees   ü  Stormwater  Drainage  Fee  /  U>lity  &  Enterprise  Fund    
  • 28. Zoning/Site Plan Review ü  Relax  Parking  Requirements   ü U>lize  Right-­‐of-­‐Way  &  Reduce   Setbacks   ü Permit  use  of  Open  Drainage   Systems   ü Credits  for  On-­‐site  Reten>on,   Infiltra>on,  Evapo-­‐transpira>on   Incen>ves:   •  Fee  Discount   •  Development  Incen>ves     •  Rebates  &  Installa>on   Financing       •  Awards  &  Recogni>on   Programs  
  • 30. By-right Open Space Residential Design 100  Acre  Wooded,  Pre-­‐Dvlp.     2-­‐Acre  Zoning,  Conven>onal    (34  Lots,  No  Protec>on)   NRPZ    (14  lots,  75%  Protect.)   Resources:   h>p://www.ipswichriver.org/resources/water-­‐wise-­‐ communi-es-­‐handbook/8-­‐open-­‐space-­‐residen-al-­‐ design-­‐bylaw/  
  • 31. Transfer of Development Rights Yes It Can Be Done! Receiving  area  =   lot  w/in   Residen>al  A  or   B  –  w/  municipal   water&  sewer  
  • 32. Rolling Easements Source:  Georgetown  Law;   Harrison  Inst.  For  Public  Law  
  • 33. Retreat/By-Outs $  Federal  Emergency   Management  Agency   $  Presiden-al   Declara-on   $  Local  Flood  Control   (e.g.  King  County  Flood   Control  District:    h>p:// www.kingcounty.gov/ environment/ waterandland/flooding/ buyout.aspx)    Source:  flicr  user  swirlspace   Ocean  Beach,  San  Francisco    Planned  Retreat:   h>p://www.youtube.com/watch? feature=player_detailpage&v=OixVjHrcWM8  
  • 34. What are MA Communities Doing? •  Chatham  –  zoning  bylaw  prohibits  new  residen-al  units  in   mapped  floodplains  -­‐  designates  ‘conservancy  districts’  for  land   in  100-­‐year  floodplain;  designates  uses  as  permi>ed,  needing   special  permit  or  are  altogether  prohibited   •  Cape  Cod  Commission  –  model  floodplain  district  bylaw   prohibi-ng  new  development  in  V,  no  public  infrastructure  in  V   and  A  zones   •  Boston  –  upda-ng  their  hazard  mi-ga-on  plan,  looking  into   upda-ng  wetlands  ordinance  -­‐  all  accommoda-ng  for  CC   •  Cambridge/Essex/Salem  –  vulnerability  assessment   •  Reducing  Storm  Risk  in  Developed  Areas  w  FEMA  $:  Quincy  &   Scituate  help  property  owners  elevate  homes/u-li-es;  covers   75%  of  cost  
  • 35. Contact: Sam Cleaves, AICP Senior Regional Planner 617-933-0748 scleaves@mapc.org 35