Effects (cont.)• Aquifer intrusion*• Habitatdestruction**• Effects on coastsheightened due toexisting humanpressures***WA Dept. of EcologyNicholls 2007*WA Dept. of Ecology**Galbraith 2002***Nicholls 2007
Effects (cont.)Nicholls 2007• Adaptation harder fordeveloping countries*• 0.05-0.11m sea levelrise expected by2100*• Could be closer to 1mwith newpredictions***Nicholls 2007**Vermeer 2009
What has Been Observed?Church 2008Nicholls 2010• 3 mm/yr sea level rise*Historic:• Sea level 4-6m higher in lastinterglacial period*• Little net change from 2,000 yrsago to 19th century*• 1mm/yr rise in early 20thcentury, 2mm/yr untilrecently**• Trends confirmed by otherdata, including sediment*Church 2008**Skeptical Science***Donnelly 2004
Erroneous ConclusionsMYTH: sea level rise is exaggeratedWhy is this incorrect, besides the observationsproving it wrong?
Accurate Predictions/Conclusions Must take into account: Elimination of “noisy signals”* Isostatic adjustment and tectonicinfluence* Inverse barometer effect* El Nino and other oscillations** Extra evidence: Data agreement (tidal gaugedata, sedimentaryrecords, satellite data confirmtrends)* Mathematical confirmation (98% ofthe variance in sea level rise isexplained by increasing globaltemperature)***Nicholls 2010*Skeptical Science**Church 2008***Vermeer 2009
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