This Presentation is based on our Research in area of EQ Prediction studies carried out in Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar under Punjab Govt. sponsored Earthquake Research Center and DST Projects of Govt. of India. Our Radon/ Helium Precursory data set up bench marks for future investigations in India. Some of the Pictures at the end represent participation of my friend, Dr Thomas Streil from Germany, in Conferences in India & abroad.

1. Earthquake Hazards and
Disaster Management
H.S.VIRK
#360 Sector 71,SAS Nagar (Pb.), India

2. India: A Country Profile on
Disasters
• During the decade 1988-97, disasters in
India affected over 24 million people and
killed 5116 each year, on the average.
The economic loss amounted to 1884
million US $ per year.
• In India, 11.2 percent area is flood-prone,
28 percent of total cultivable area is
drought-prone and it is estimated that 57
percent of India is earthquake-prone.

3. Natural Hazards, Disasters and
Vulnerability
• Natural hazards become disasters when they
impact on the vulnerabilities of an area/region
and its people. For example, cigarette smoking
or drug-addiction is a health hazard, which can
become a disaster if the vulnerable section of
population is exposed to it freely.
The
vulnerability of a region is a complex
phenomenon; it is defined as the influence on it
by heterogeneity of social, political and
economic factors.
Natural or man-made
hazards impact differently in different parts of
the world depending upon vulnerability.

4. What is Vulnerability?
• The 1993, Latur earthquake of 6.3 M left
over 10,000 dead and destroyed 200, 000
households.
However,
much
more
powerful (7.5 M) Los Angeles earthquake
of 1971 killed only 55 persons. In India,
with a fast growing population, the disaster
mitigation and management must take into
account the assessment of risk and
vulnerability
of
the
area
under
consideration.

5. Indian Response to Disasters
• Keeping in view, the objectives of IDNDR and
Yokohoma Declaration, Indian Government has
planned for disaster preparedness, mitigation
and management at the national, state and
district level by creating infrastructure, namely
National Centre for Disaster Management
(NCDM), Calamity Relief Fund (CRF) at state
level and National Fund for calamity Relief
(NFCR) at national level.
Forecasting and
warning systems to deal with floods, cyclones,
droughts and earthquakes are being upgraded.

6. Disaster Mitigation & Management:
What is Our Contribution?
• Our Group in GND University was
involved in Earthquake Prediction studies
in Punjab and HP (Kangra & Chamba
valleys). We failed to predict Earthquakes
but our research has set some
benchmarks in this field.
• Radiation survey of Punjab was carried
out under DAE Project to determine effect
of Environmental Natural Radiation on the
health of its people.

7. Causes of Earthquakes
• Earthquakes (EQs) are caused by sudden
releases of strain energy accumulated during
long intervals due to relative motion of Tectonic
plates of earth; 6 major and 6 minor. EQs are of
two types: Tectonic and Volcanic. Tectonic EQs
are of three types: Interplate, Intraplate and
SCR(Stable Continental Region). Magnitude of
EQs is measured on Richter scale. EQ of 6.3M
is equivalent to the Atomic Bomb thrown on
Hiroshima in its destructive power.

8. Concept of Tectonic Plates

9. Global Frequency of Earthquakes
Magnitude
Description
No. of Earthquakes/Year
8.5 and up
Great
0.3
8-8.4
Great
1
7.5-7.9
Major
3
7-7.4
Major
15
6.6-6.9
Destructive
56
6-6.5
Destructive
210
5-5.9
Damaging
800
4-4.9
Minor
6200
3-3.9
Minor
49000
2-2.9
Minor
300000
0-1.9
Minor
700000

10. Population Growth and Fatalities
due to Earthquake Hazards

11. San Francisco Earthquake of 1906

12. The Great Kanto Earthquake(1923)

13. LIST OF SOME SIGNIFICANT EARTHQUAKES IN INDIA AND ITS NEIGHBOURHOOD
DATE
EPICENTRE
LOCATION
Lat( Deg N )
Long( Deg E )
1819 JUN 16
23.6
68.6
1869 JAN 10
25
93
1885 MAY 30
34.1
74.6
1897 JUN 12
26
91
1905 APR 04
32.3
1918 JUL 08
MAGNITUDE
KUTCH,GUJARAT
8.0
NEAR CACHAR, ASSAM
7.5
SOPOR, J&K
7.0
SHILLONGPLATEAU
8.7
76.3
KANGRA, H.P
8.0
24.5
91.0
SRIMANGAL, ASSAM
7.6
1930 JUL 02
25.8
90.2
DHUBRI, ASSAM
7.1
1934JAN 15
26.6
86.8
BIHAR-NEPALBORDER
8.3
1941 JUN 26
12.4
92.5
ANDAMAN ISLANDS
8.1
1943 OCT 23
26.8
94.0
ASSAM
7.2
1950 AUG 15
28.5
96.7
ARUNACHAL PRADESH-CHINA BORDER
8.5
1956 JUL 21
23.3
70.0
ANJAR, GUJARAT
7.0
1967 DEC 10
17.37
73.75
KOYNA, MAHARASHTRA
6.5
1975 JAN 19
32.38
78.49
KINNAUR, HP
6.2
1988 AUG 06
25.13
95.15
MANIPUR-MYANMAR BORDER
6.6
1988 AUG 21
26.72
86.63
BIHAR-NEPAL BORDER
6.4
1991 OCT 20
30.75
78.86
UTTARKASHI, UP HILLS
6.6
1993 SEP 30
18.07
76.62
LATUR-OSMANABAD, MAHARASHTRA
6.3
1997 MAY 22
23.08
80.06
JABALPUR,MP
6.0
1999 MAR 29
30.41
79.42
CHAMOLI DIST, UP
6.8
2001 JAN 26
23.40
70.28
BHUJ , GUJARAT
6.9

19. What is Earthquake Prediction?
• The ultimate aim of EQ prediction is to
establish reliability to issue timely warning
so as to save life and property. A valid
prediction should be based on four
essential elements:
• Time window in which the Event will occur.
• Location of the Event with all coordinates.
• Magnitude range, and
• Statistical probability of the Event.

20. Chamba (1995)
Uttarkashi (1991)
Chamoli
(1999)

21. Soil-Gas Emanometry
Radon Emanometer used for radon
sampling
Soil-gas probe used for radon sampling

22. Groundwater Emanometry
Groundwater radon sampling methodolgy

23. Radon Survey in Groundwater at Palampur
(Virk, Randhawa & Ramola)

24. Radon Monitoring in Chamba
(Virk, Walia & Santokh)

25. 12
Dalhousie
Chamba
Eq. (M=5.1)
8
Soil-Gas
6
Groundwat er
Χ +2 σ=4.73
4
Χ+2 σ=4.52
Χ
2
Χ
Time Window (March 1995)
31
28
25
22
19
16
13
7
4
0
10
Χ −2 σ
MAR'95
Radon Conc. (Bq/L)
10
(Virk et al., 1995)

26. Palampur
80
Χ+2σ =69.66
70
Χ = 56.69
Χ+2σ = 46.63
40
30
Χ= 24.31
20
Groundwater
Soil-gas
10
31
29
27
25
23
21
19
17
15
13
11
9
7
5
3
0
Mar. 99
Radon Conc. (Bq/L)
60
50
Chamoli Eq
M=6.8
M=3.2
Ep = 87 km
Time window (March 1999)
(Virk et al. 2001)

27. 5.6
Palampur
Chamoli Eq
5.5
5.3
5.2
5.1
5
4.9
4.8
4.7
Mar. 99
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
Helium Conc. (ppm)
5.4
Time window (March 99)
(Virk et al. 2001)

28. Variation of Radon Conc. with Microseismicity
in the region
90
30
Seismic Events/year
Avg. Rn conc./year
80
83
25
70
No. of Events/Year
60
70
80
20
50
15
40
40
30
20
10
Avg. Radon Conc./Year
79
27
19
5
20
10
0
0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
Time Window
1997
1998
1999
(Walia et al. 2003)

29. Proposed Earthquake Monitoring
Network for India

30. Latur- Killari Earthquake 6.3M
(1993)

31. Bhuj Earthquake 6.9M (2001)

32. Future Scenario of Earthquakes

33. Another Scenario (2002)

34. Learning Punjabi Folk Dance

35. ICRGG Conference, Amritsar
(1995)

36. ICGG Conference Besancon,
France(1993)

37. Thank You !!!