This document summarizes real estate market conditions in Montreal, Quebec in the first quarter of 2019. It finds that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.9% and vacancy rates declined to 10.9% as positive absorption of 795,000 square feet continued across major markets. Rental rates increased slightly by 2% annually as large blocks of available space disappeared and demand increased in a tightening market. The outlook is for the positive momentum to continue through 2019, with further tightening of vacancy rates and small increases in average rental rates.
Cushman & Wakefield Montreal Americas Marketbeat Office Q12019 #CRE #RealEstate
1. Montreal, QC
Office Q4 2017
MARKETBEATMARKETBEAT
Montreal, QC
Office Q1 2019
Economic Indicators
Market Indicators (Overall, All Property Types)
Overall Net Absorption/Overall Asking Rent
4-Quarter Trailing Average
Overall Vacancy
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 2019
Q1 18 Q1 19
12-month
Forecast
Montreal Employment 2.2 mil 2.2 mil
Montreal Unemployment 6.5% 5.9%
Canada Unemployment 5.8% 5.8%
Q1 18 Q1 19
12-month
Forecast
Vacancy 13.7% 10.9%
Net Absorption (sf) -256,783 795,650
Under Construction (sf) 2,190,934 3,171,188
Average Asking Rent* $27.30 $33.64
*Rental rates reflect gross asking $psf/year
MONTREAL OFFICE
Historical Average = 10.7%
$20
$22
$24
$26
$28
$30
$32
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 2019
Net Absorption, SF (thousands) Asking Rent, $ PSF
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Economy
The unemployment rate in the Greater Montreal Area (GMA)
remained unchanged at 5.9% for a second consecutive quarter.
Although there has been no movement, this rate continues to
highlight the positive economic outlook for the GMA.
(Source: Statistics Canada)
In March 2019, the Bank of Canada left its benchmark interest
rate unchanged at 1.75% for a third consecutive
announcement. This decision came following disappointing
results from key economic indicators during the preceding 3
months; in fact, economic growth during this period was the
lowest it has been in the last three years. Although the potential
rise in interest rates towards the end of 2019 remains a concern
for borrowers, the stability of the monetary policy can be
considered a positive sign for the general economy.
Market Overview
The Greater Montreal Area has now seen three consecutive
quarters of positive absorption, with 795,000 square feet (sf) of
space absorbed in the first quarter of 2019. Once again all
three major markets (Central, Midtown, Suburban) saw positive
absorption, although differing from the preceding quarters,
market activity was more robust in Midtown and Suburban
submarkets than it was in the Central area. This absorption has
pushed the overall vacancy in the GMA down 50 basis points
since the fourth quarter of 2018 to a five-year low of 10.9%. The
market also saw delivery of three new office buildings totaling
just over 356,000 sf. Of that, only 34,462 sf was vacant upon
delivery.
Outlook
While not as robust as 2018, the market is expected to
maintain its momentum over the course of 2019. Although
market conditions are increasingly becoming landlord
favourable, the market remains quite competitive. Large
occupiers seeking space in the Central area are now looking
to new developments to satisfy their needs as there are very
few large contiguous blocks of available space left in the
market. In the Financial Core, only six options for tenants
seeking 50,000+ sf of space remain. Despite the
disappearance of large available space options and the
significant downward pressure on vacancy rates, landlords
have only marginally increased rent expectations at
approximately 2% annually. A slight year-over-year increase in
average net asking rates is anticipated as a result of Class
AAA deliveries; however, the range of rates is not expected to
change.
2. Montreal, QC
Office Q4 2017
MARKETBEATMARKETBEAT
Montreal, QC
Office Q1 2019
Economic Indicators
Market Indicators (Overall, All Property Types)
Overall Net Absorption/Overall Asking Rent
4-Quarter Trailing Average
Overall Vacancy
Building Class
INVENTORY
(SF)
SUBLET
VACANT
(SF)
DIRECT
VACANT
(SF)
OVERALL
VACANCY
RATE
CURRENT
NET OVERALL
ABSORPTION
(SF)
YTD
NET OVERALL
ABSORPTION
(SF)
UNDER
CONSTR
(SF)
OVERALL
AVERAGE
ASKING RENT
(ALL MARKETS)*
Class A 40,830,395 589,595 3,192,278 9.3% 316,725 316,725 2,731,609 $40.29
Class B 44,103,658 379,574 5,111,113 12.4% 540,602 540,602 439,579 $30.95
Class C 13,211,727 26,896 1,419,700 10.9% -61,677 -61,677 0 $23.73
*Rental rates represent $ per square foot per year
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SUBMARKET
INVENTORY
(SF)
SUBLET
VACANT
(SF)
DIRECT
VACANT
(SF)
OVERALL
VACANCY
RATE
CURRENT NET
ABSORPTION
(SF)
YTD OVERALL
ABSORPTION
(SF)
UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
(SF)
OVERALL
AVERAGE
ASKING RENT
(ALL CLASSES)*
OVERALL
AVERAGE
ASKING RENT
(CLASS A)*
Financial Core 21,882,859 51,031 1,938,445 9.1% 139,965 139,965 0 $41.55 $44.81
Downtown West 4,038,881 1,985 236,357 5.9% 25,705 25,705 173,699 $34.95 $42.04
Downtown East 9,295,798 0 491,049 5.3% 56,479 56,479 610,976 $35.70 $49.38
Downtown South 11,914,800 272,752 650,145 7.7% -122,697 -122,697 1,000,000 $42.23 $44.69
Downtown Southwest 2,100,971 10,000 136,370 7.0% 28,121 28,121 148,618 $24.04 N/A
Old Montreal 4,569,297 11,704 295,923 6.7% 45,107 45,107 150,000 $30.58 N/A
Westmount 2,328,306 1,240 127,720 5.5% 18,465 18,465 0 $32.92 $36.72
Central Area 56,130,912 348,712 3,876,009 7.5% 191,145 191,145 2,083,293 $38.61 44.83$
Midtown East 2,620,068 22,036 199,662 8.5% 28,121 28,121 418,000 $25.69 N/A
Midtown Central 5,016,529 43,871 256,509 6.0% 85,261 85,261 176,434 $24.52 N/A
Midtown North 5,620,131 0 1,143,441 20.3% 33,709 33,709 0 $23.02 $29.25
Décarie CDN 2,550,767 14,930 464,052 18.8% 7,253 7,253 0 $28.76 $32.67
Midtown West 760,064 0 163,124 21.5% -2,912 -2,912 0 $24.34 N/A
Midtown South 981,082 116,767 22,932 14.2% -3,500 -3,500 0 $25.10 N/A
Île-des-Sœurs 1,735,401 8,600 249,942 14.9% 1,794 1,794 0 N/A N/A
Saint-Laurent 7,091,374 314,693 1,093,266 19.9% 59,826 59,826 35,961 $28.18 $31.21
Midtown 26,375,416 520,897 3,592,928 15.6% 209,552 209,552 630,395 $25.82 $31.06
West Island 2,909,993 17,802 479,759 17.1% 24,230 24,230 0 $30.03 $31.28
East End 3,310,114 21,181 490,437 15.5% 161,824 161,824 0 $24.29 $29.13
Laval 4,350,250 31,417 623,962 15.1% 27,197 27,197 0 $32.40 $34.80
South Shore 5,069,085 56,056 659,996 14.1% 181,702 181,702 457,500 $28.53 $32.29
Suburbs 15,639,442 126,456 2,254,154 15.2% 394,953 394,953 457,500 $28.99 $32.48
GREATER MONTREAL AREA
TOTALS
98,145,770 996,065 9,723,091 10.9% 795,650 795,650 3,171,188 $33.64 $40.29