A Presentation on Climate Change and Energy Solutions for Japan to Japanese students at Vancouver Island University

1. Japan’s Energy Crisis
Is a Green Future
Possible?
Presentation by Guy Dauncey,
Guy Dauncey 2013 Vancouver island University, August 2013
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2. 1
What is our
REALITY?
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実在

3. We’ve come a long way from this….
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4. To this …
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5. but…
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6. Everyone wants to go shopping…
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10. We’ve also come to this…
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15. ……
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?

16. If everyone lived like Canadians or Japanese,
we'd need two more Earths
to provide the resources.
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24. Live Rainforest
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Dead Rainforest

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27. What went wrong?
How did this…
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28. Gross
Domestic
Product
国内総生産
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29. turn into this? …
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30. Gross
Depletion
of the
Planet
惑星のグロス枯渇
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32. 2
GLOBAL
CLIMATE CHANGE
地球規模の気候変動
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35. Almost all our energy is Solar Energy
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36. The Sun sends us solar energy
The trees capture the energy
through photosynthesis
and convert it into CARBON
In
Almost all energy is Solar Energy
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37. When ancient
forests died,
they stored the
carbon
as
COAL
In
Almost all energy is Solar Energy
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41. When we burn the
COAL
it releases the
ancient carbon
and causes
GLOBAL
WARMING
In
Almost all energy is Solar Energy
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42. The Sun also sends solar energy
into the ocean
Almost all energy is Solar Energy
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43. It is captured by ocean plankton,
who store it as CARBON
Almost all energy is Solar Energy
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44. When they die,
the ancient carbon
becomes
OIL and GAS
Almost all energy is Solar Energy
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45. Most of our energy comes from:
COAL, OIL and GAS
Ancient solar energy = ancient carbon
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47. Oil is also a cause of war and conflict
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48. They are all FOSSIL FUELS
They all cause Global Warming
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49. The cars we drive all cause global warming
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50. Every day, we burn
this ancient carbon energy
12.5 million tonnes of coal
10 million tonnes of oil
7.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas
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51. This gives us lots of ……
POWER!
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52. 85% of all this energy comes from fossil fuels
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55. Earth has a very thin atmosphere
which traps and holds the sun’s heat,
using CO2, methane, & water vapour.
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57. AsWhen we the fossil fuels…
we burn burn fossil fuels…
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58. CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
As we burn the fossil fuels…
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59. CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
100 million tonnes a day
= 4 million tonnes an hour
= 67,000 tonnes a minute
As we burn the fossil fuels…
= 1,000 tonnes a second
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60. As we burn the fossil fuels…
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62. The carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere
is rising
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68. Carbon dioxide traps
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69. Heat warms the air and the oceans
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70. Guy Dauncey 2013
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The Arctic Ice is melting

71. Seoul, July 2011
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74. Guy Dauncey 2013
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IPCC 2007

75. + 2˚C rise
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www.globalwarmingart.com

76. This
10,000
years future
10,000
years past
is the
Age of Fossil Fuels
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77. The Sun is rapidly setting
on the Age of Fossil Fuels.
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78. We are HERE
 Past
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Age of
Fossil
Fuels
Future 

79. Glaciers are melting
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80. The Arctic sea ice is melting
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82. Greenland is melting
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83. Antarctica is melting
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84. The last time the world was 3C warmer,
the sea level was 25 metres higher
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85. 25 metres
18 metres
10 metres
2 metres
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86. 92 metres
70 metres
If all polar ice melted
70 metres sea-level rise
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Comparison of Vegetation Zones
Average vs Warmer (21st Century) Climate

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Kyoto, December 23rd 2006

93. Mount Fuji in Spring
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94. Mt. Fuji - no snow
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95. All of Japan’s nuclear plants are at sea level
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97. Guy Dauncey 2007
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Florida 17 feet (5-6 metres) sea level rise
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100. Hurricane Katrina, August 2005
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101. Guy Dauncey 2013
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New Orleans, August 2005

102. Torrential
downpours
and floods
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103. At the current predicted temperature rise,
33%
of the Earth will be affected
by extreme drought by 2100
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Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (UK), 2006
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105. Number of days over
100°F / 38°C
60 days a year
120+ days a year
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107. At the current predicted temperature rise,
Up to 20%
of the world’s economy could be lost
That’s like the Great Depression
and both World Wars combined
+
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108. Wake up! Call the media! Get on TV!
Climate change is destroying our world!
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109. There’s also a second problem
Peak Oil
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110. This
10,000
years futur
10,000
years past
is the
Age of Fossil Fuels
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111. The Sun is rapidly setting
on the Age of Fossil Fuels.
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117. Guy Dauncey 2013
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Global CO2 in 1750 (biogenic)

118. CO2 emissions since1750 (anthropogenic)
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119. Maximum extra CO2 to stay below 2°C of warming
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120. Potential CO2 in declared fossil fuel reserves
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121. All of this must remain in the ground
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123. Do you sometimes feel
that it’s all getting
out of control?
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124. So what shall
we do?
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125. 3
JAPAN’S
ENERGY PROBLEM
エネルギー問題
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128. Coal 21%
Gas 15%
Nuclear 15%
Oil 46%
= 1,000
Terawatt hours
a year
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129. $$
$$
Natural Gas 15%
Uranium Nuclear 15%
$$
$$
Coal 21%
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97% of all
Japan’s
energy
is imported
Oil 46%

130. USA 75%
France 11%
Britain 10%
Uranium 15%
Coal 21%
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Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%

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138. Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
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Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%

139. Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
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Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%

140. Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
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Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%

141. Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
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Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%

142. Uranium Nuclear 15%
Coal 21%
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?
Natural Gas 15%
Oil 46%

143. Guy Dauncey 2013
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www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath

144. www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath/green_path_japanese.pdf
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145. How serious 切実
is Japan’s
Energy Problem?
1. Very serious
2. I don’t know
3. Not serious
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146. 4
JAPAN’S
ENERGY
SOLUTIONS
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解答

147. Guy Dauncey 2013
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148. We need…
A 100% Shift to
Renewable
Energy
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149. We need…
A Green Economy
Harmony
with Nature
True Sustainability
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150. How much energy does Japan need?
1,000 terawatt hours a year
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151. 1,000 terawatt hours
a year
千テラワット時間今
年
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152. Where will the green
electricity come from?
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153. Efficient Appliances
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154. LED lights
only use
1 to 5 watts
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160. How much energy can Japan SAVE?
200 to 500 terawatt hours a year
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163. Solar Power
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Rolf Disch Solar Architecture

164. Ota Solar City, Japan
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165. Solar-powered homes
Yoshikawa, near Tokyo
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168. Guy Dauncey 2013
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Les-Mees, France

169. Solar Stadium, Taiwan
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170. Dow’s Solar Shingles
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Thin film solar

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Thin film solar production

173. The Falling Price of Solar PV
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Price of
Solar Cells
1977: $76
1981: $24
1991: $9
2001: $6
2011: $1.25
2013: $0.74

175. Price of Installed Solar Power
Germany:
$2.50 a watt
US & Canada: $5 a watt
Japan:
$6.50 a watt
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178. How much SOLAR energy
could Japan produce?
72 to 300 terawatt hours a year
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179. Solar thermal energy
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Solar Millennium AG

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182. Earth’s total known fossil energy reserves
are equivalent to 47 days of solar energy
reaching the Earth’s deserts
Solar One, Nevada, 64 MW
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184. How much SOLAR THERMAL energy
could Japan produce?
Unknown
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185. Geothermal Energy
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186. Geothermal Energy: 13% growth pa
2-12 cents kWh
39 countries could get 100% power
= 17% of the world’s people
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190. Geothermal power
Nesjavellir Geothermal Plant, Iceland
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193. How much GEOTHERMAL energy
could Japan produce?
Hatchobaru Geothermal Power Plant, Kokonoe, Oita
98 to 500 terawatt hours a year
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194. Wind Energy
Kappel Wind Farm, Lolland, Denmark
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195. Kamisu Wind Farm, Ibaraki, Japan
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196. Guy Dauncey 2013
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Siemens AG

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198. Wind Power in Japan
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199. How much WIND energy
could Japan produce?
570 to 5,000 terawatt hours a year
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200. How much HYDRO energy
could Japan produce?
79 - 140 terawatt hours a year
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201. How much TIDAL energy
could Japan produce?
20-70 terawatt hours a year
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202. South Korea’s 1 MW Jindo Uldolmok
tidal power plant
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203. The Cost is Falling
Wind
1990
30
Solar
200
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2013
8-10
30
2020
8 cents kWh
15 cents kWh

204. THE RESULT
Japan needs 1,000 TWh a year
Low
High
Efficiency
200
500
Solar
72
300
Geothermal
30
500
Wind
570
5000
Hydro
79
140
Tidal
20
70
TOTAL
971
6510
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205. 5
TRANSPORTATION
輸送
SOLUTIONS
解答
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223. CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
100 million tonnes a day
= 4 million tonnes an hour
= 67,000 tonnes a minute
As we burn thetonnes fuels…
= 1,000 fossil a second
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224. Guy Dauncey 2013
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226. Copenhagen
36% of all work trips by bike.
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227. Vancouver, Howe Street

229. Electric Bicycle
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235. Guy Dauncey 2013
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Moto Electra World Record
Across US in 3 Days

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Electric Motorbike

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239. Solar electric bicycles in Tokyo
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240. Electric train, running on
green electricity
= no climate impact
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241. Public Transit
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242. Guy Dauncey 2013
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Christoph Groneck, Trams-in-France.net

243. Electric bus, running on green electricity
= no climate impact
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244. OLEV
On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

246. Japan’s Future Electric Bus
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247. Chevy Volt
1,400 km on one tank of gas
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248. Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range
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249. Smart Electric – 135 km range
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250. Mitsubishi MiEV
160 km range
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251. Guy Dauncey 2013
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252. Toyota RAV4 EV
148 km range
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253. Tesla Roadster
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393 km range

254. Top
The KIA Pop: yet to be released

256. STELLA

258. Made by Dutch students, Eindhoven University
Family size, 4-seater
Roadworthy, legal in Holland
Weight: 380 kg (1120 kg for normal EV)
Range: 400 km no sunshine, 600 km full sunshine
Solar PV cost $4,000
10 months a year it produces more energy than it uses
Excess power back into the grid

259. Electric cars,
running on green electricity
= no climate impact
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260. PV for EV
1.5 kW of solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year
Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km
10,000 km = 1,500 kWh

261. 1.5 kW solar PV
$7,500
3.5% 25 year mortgage on $7.5k = $37/month
Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month

262. Solar Roadways
In US, 3 x total electricity demand
www.solarroadways.com

263. Honda solar electric car charging
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264. Electric car fast charging
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265. Mercedes Biome – made from bioplastic
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266. Solar Sailor
www.solarsailor.com

268. 9 MW of solar panels
Retractable sails between each cargo bay
Self-unloading cargo bays
Superconducting power link
Modular LNG hydrogen fuel cells
Sleek, low wind resistance design

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271. Future Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane
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272. Guy Dauncey 2013
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Telemeetings = no climate impact

273. 6
BUILDING
SOLUTIONS
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274. We can live and work in green buildings
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275. Guy Dauncey 2013
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Or this?

276. This…
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277. Or this?
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278. This …
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279. Or this?
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280. Heating 加熱
without Fossil Fuels
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281. Guy Dauncey 2013
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Solar Heat + Storage
Austria

282. Guy Dauncey 2013
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Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating

283. Guy Dauncey 2013
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Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating

284. Solar Heating from the Air
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285. Guy Dauncey 2013
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286. Ground Source Heat
2 million installations in 30 countries
$20,000 to $30,000
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287. Guy Dauncey 2013
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288. Water Source Heat
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289. Ice-Source Heat
Richmond Olympic Skating Oval
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290. Solar Heat
Solar hot water
on a restaurant in
Sweden
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Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan

291. Guy Dauncey 2013
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292. www.solarbc.ca
Guy Dauncey 2013
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A project of the BCSEA

293. Lindau Hospital, Germany
Guy Dauncey 2013
2007
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294. Guy Dauncey 2013
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Rizhao, China

295. Rizhao, China
Population 3 million
99% of city centre households use solar hot water.
60,000 greenhouses, all solar powered.
Whole city plans to become carbon neutral.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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296. Guy Dauncey 2013
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CSIRO

297. Guy Dauncey 2013
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298. Solar Wall Heating
Guy Dauncey 2007
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299. Guy Dauncey 2013
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300. Welsh Development Agency
Technology Center, St. Asaph, Wales
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301. Guy Dauncey 2013
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302. Guy Dauncey 2013
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303. Guy Dauncey 2013
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304. Pearl River
Tower
Guangzhou,
China
Guy Dauncey 2013
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305. Guy Dauncey 2013
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306. Guy Dauncey 2013
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307. Bahrain
World Trade Centre
Guy Dauncey 2013
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308. Virgo Road, Oakland Hills, San Francisco
Robert Nebolon architect
Guy Dauncey 2013
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309. Toyko, Japan
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310. 8,000 sq ft zero carbon home designed for
Manchester United soccer player Gary Neville
Guy Dauncey 2013
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311. Guy Dauncey 2013
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312. ACROS Fukuoka building in Fukuoka, Japan.
35,000 plants, 76 species
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313. Guy Dauncey 2013
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314. Osaka
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315. Guy Dauncey 2013
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316. Ogimachi – Shirakawa Farm Village
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317. Tono Furusato Restored Farm Village
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318. Guy Dauncey 2013
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319. Guy Dauncey 2013
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320. Madrid, Spain
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321. Gangnam district, Seoul
Guy Dauncey 2013
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322. Guy Dauncey 2013
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323. Guy Dauncey 2013
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324. ACROS Fukuoka building
Guy Dauncey 2013
Fukuoka, Japan
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325. 7
OUR PAST
AND
OUR FUTURE
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326. We have been developing intelligence
for millions of years
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327. Guy Dauncey 2013
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328. Guy Dauncey 2013
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329. Guy Dauncey 2013
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330. Guy Dauncey 2013
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331. Guy Dauncey 2013
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332. Guy Dauncey 2013
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333. Guy Dauncey 2013
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334. Guy Dauncey 2013
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335. Guy Dauncey 2013
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336. Guy Dauncey 2013
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337. Guy Dauncey 2013
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338. Guy Dauncey 2013
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339. Our technology
is the expression of our
cumulative 累積の
shared シェアード
intelligence 知性
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340. Where are
we going?
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341. We have made our
full evolutionary
journey
over 13.8 billion years
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342. We have made
our recent
evolutionary journey
over ten million years
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343. There will be
a billion years
before the Sun runs out of fuel
and begins to die
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344. A billion years
10 億年
Future
Past
将来
過去
We are here
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345. The Carbon Years…
Cumulative
Intelligence
Firewood
1.5 million years
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346. The Carbon Years
could be the launch-ramp…
Cumulative
Intelligence
Fossil Fuels
200 years
Firewood
1.5 million years
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347. The Carbon Years could be
the launch-ramp for the solar years
True Solar
1 billion years
Cumulative
Intelligence
Fossil Solar
200 years
Firewood Solar
1.5 million years
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348. THE CLIMATE EMERGENCY
IS VERY REAL
What is stopping us from making
faster progress?
1.
2.
3.
4.
Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関心
Political corruption 政治腐敗
Ignorance 不知
Confusion 錯乱 and no leadership
指導
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349. 8
FINAL
THOUGHTS
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350. A Thousand Possibilities
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351. We need to roll up the past.
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By Nattanicha Kongsathitporn, age 14, Thailand

352. We need to sail away from our old, polluting ways
and build a green, sustainable world.
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By Iskren Rumenov Petrov, age 14, from Bulgaria

353. This is about you, your children,
and your future.
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354. 決意
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355. Guy Dauncey 2013
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356. Guy Dauncey 2013
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You have free will
We can make a difference

358. This is about us, our planet,
and our future.
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359. Our Home
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360. Guy Dauncey 2013
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361. Guy Dauncey 2013
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362. Guy Dauncey
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