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Climate and the Economy - Beauty and the Beast

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My presentation to the Symposium on Climate and the Economy, organized by the Cowichan Estuary and Conservation Association

- Guy Dauncey
Author of Journey to the Future: A Better World is Possible, and The Climate Challenge: 101 Solutions to Global Warming.

Published in: Environment
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Climate and the Economy - Beauty and the Beast

  1. 1. Climate and the Economy: Beauty and the Beast Symposium on Climate Change and the Economy Guy Dauncey, Duncan, March 2017
  2. 2. The Beast = The Economy = Mechanistic, reductionist thinking
  3. 3. The Prince = The New Economy = Holistic, systems thinking
  4. 4. Beauty = Nature, Holocene Climate
  5. 5. Homo Economicus
  6. 6. Climate Change? It’s all just hot air Climate Change? It’s all just hot air
  7. 7. Huh?
  8. 8. December 2016
  9. 9. The last time the world was 3C warmer, the sea level was 25 metres higher.
  10. 10. The Guardian, March 22, 2016
  11. 11. Cowichan Estuary 0 metres sea-level rise flood.firetree.net
  12. 12. 2 metres sea-level rise
  13. 13. 5 metres sea-level rise
  14. 14. 9 metres sea-level rise
  15. 15. 20 metres sea-level rise
  16. 16. Vancouver 0 Metres Sea-Level Rise
  17. 17. Vancouver 2 Metres Sea-Level Rise
  18. 18. Vancouver 5 Metres Sea-Level Rise
  19. 19. Vancouver 9 Metres Sea-Level Rise
  20. 20. Vancouver 20 Metres Sea-Level Rise
  21. 21. We must change our future story from negative to positive, from fear and worry to hope and determination. We must change our future story from negative to positive, from fear and worry to hope and determination.
  22. 22. The Economics of Self-Interest Homo Economicus $$$$$$$$
  23. 23. Rational
  24. 24. Rational Self-interested
  25. 25. Rational Self-interested Maximizing capital gain
  26. 26. Rational Self-interested Maximizing capital gain Ignoring externalities
  27. 27. Rational Self-interested Maximizing capital gain Ignoring externalities Produce!
  28. 28. Rational Self-interested Maximizing capital gain Ignoring externalities Produce! Consume!
  29. 29. Rational Self-interested Maximizing capital gain Ignoring externalities Produce! Consume! Grow!
  30. 30. Rational Self-interested Maximizing capital gain Ignoring externalities Produce! Consume! Grow! REPEAT…..
  31. 31. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  32. 32. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  33. 33. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com GDP = Gross Depletion of the Planet
  34. 34. How to Kiss the Beast
  35. 35. 1. Launch a Creative Engagement with the community to discuss the climate crisis, and seek solutions
  36. 36. 2. Tackle ecological ignorance. Starting with VIU, require that starting in 2020, every entry student and new professor must have passed a course in Ecology 101.
  37. 37. 3. Set a regional district goal to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2040
  38. 38. 4a. Persuade 100 local businesses to attain Vancouver Island Green Business Certification by 2020, 1000 by 2030, all by 2040
  39. 39. 4b. Persuade 50 local businesses to become Benefit Corporations by 2020, 500 by 2030, all by 2040
  40. 40. 5. Adopt a goal for 25% of local farms to be organic by 2020, 50% by 2030, 100% by 2040
  41. 41. 6. Find ways to increase vegetarian diet, and reduce the local consumption of industrial meat and dairy
  42. 42. 7. Work to restore 25% of local forests to an old growth restoration trajectory by 2020, 50% by 2030, 100% by 2040
  43. 43. 8. Adopt a plan for the whole regional economy to become a restorative economy by 2040
  44. 44. 9. Stay really engaged in climate impact preparation and mitigation
  45. 45. 10. Persuade all other regional districts on Vancouver Island to adopt the same goals
  46. 46. A Roadmap for Rapid Decarbonization Science, March 24 2017
  47. 47. 1. Launch a Creative Engagement with the community to discuss the climate crisis, and seek solutions
  48. 48. It will take everyone – non-profits, service clubs, schools, colleges, businesses, banks, governments
  49. 49. We need to organize together so that we can flourish in harmony with each other and with Nature. Unity in Diversity, Shared Purpose
  50. 50. Environmental groups Food and gardening groups First Nations Youth groups Local government Local businesses Schools Churches Community groups Political organizations Chamber of Commerce Service clubs Regional District Local college
  51. 51. 2. TACKLE ECOLOGICAL IGNORANCE. Starting with VIU, require that starting in 2020, every entry student and new professor must have passed a course in ECOLOGY 101
  52. 52. Before Ecology 101
  53. 53. After Ecology 101
  54. 54. After Ecology 101 Candidates for School Boards New teachers, school board staff Candidates for municipal elections Candidates for provincial, federal elections Candidates for non-profit leadership UVic, Camosun, Royal Roads, North Island College
  55. 55. 3. Set a regional district goal to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2040
  56. 56. Farewell and Thank You, Fossil Fuels Welcome, Solar Age!
  57. 57. GUSSING, AUSTRIA is ALREADY 100% RENEWABLE
  58. 58. The City of COPENHAGEN voted to BECOME 100% CARBON NEUTRAL by 2025
  59. 59. The City of OSLO voted to REDUCE its GHGs By 95% by 2030
  60. 60. CITY OF FRANKFURT voted to go 100% RENEWABLE by 2050
  61. 61. CITY OF VANCOUVER voted to go 100% RENEWABLE before 2050
  62. 62. CITY OF VICTORIA voted to go 100% RENEWABLE by 2050
  63. 63. DISTRICT OF SAANICH just voted to move toward 100% RENEWABLE by 2050
  64. 64. Might DUNCAN vote to go 100% RENEWABLE before 2050?
  65. 65. Might NORTH COWICHAN vote to go 100% RENEWABLE before 2050?
  66. 66. Might the CVRD vote to go 100% RENEWABLE before 2050?
  67. 67. Almost Twice as Many Green Jobs in Canada By Guy Dauncey 800,000 fossil fuel jobs lost 1,000,000 green energy jobs gained
  68. 68. Transportation with 100% Renewable Energy
  69. 69. www.tonystrailers.com
  70. 70. Where cars dominates, people connect less. Less sense of neighbourhood.
  71. 71. With people-inspired urban design, people connect. More sense of neighbourhood.
  72. 72. Which do you prefer… THIS?
  73. 73. Or THIS?
  74. 74. Barcelona is moving ALL buses to 100% electric by 2020
  75. 75. So why not here too? Montreal – 100% electric buses by 2025 China – 40,000 new electric buses every year
  76. 76. Bio-methane from Bristol's sewage treatment (UK) 300 km on a tank of gas.
  77. 77. Well-to-wheel, biomethane produces 95% less CO2 than diesel
  78. 78. 2nd hand Nissan Leaf: $17,000 www.motorizevictoria.ca
  79. 79. The falling price of EV batteries
  80. 80. By 2025, Holland is preparing to permit the sale of ONLY electric cars
  81. 81. 0 metres sea-level rise
  82. 82. 5 metres sea-level rise
  83. 83. 20 metres sea-level rise
  84. 84. Building Heat with 100% Renewable Energy
  85. 85. Passive Houses, Victoria 90% reduced heat loss
  86. 86. Brussels, Belgium Since 2015, all new buildings and retrofits are required to be Nearly-Zero Energy, based on the Passive House Standard.
  87. 87. 4a. Persuade 100 local businesses to attain Vancouver Island Green Business Certification by 2020, 1000 by 2030, all by 2040
  88. 88. Green Business Certification
  89. 89. 4b. Persuade 50 local businesses to become Benefit Corporations by 2020, 500 by 2030, all by 2040
  90. 90. Benefit Corporations
  91. 91. B Corporations Vancouver Island
  92. 92. 5. Adopt a goal for 25% of local farms to be organic by 2020, 50% by 2030, 100% by 2040
  93. 93. Organic yields match conventional yields. Outperform conventional in years of drought.Organic farming uses 45% less energy.Produces 40% fewer greenhouse gases.Is more profitable than conventional farming. Rodale Institute, 30-year trials.
  94. 94. Zero-till, conservation farming and organic farming could sequestrate 50 GT of carbon from the atmosphere. - Rattan Lal
  95. 95. All organic farms protect their bees
  96. 96. Local Food with 100% Renewable Energy plus added carbon storage!
  97. 97. 6. Find ways to eat more vegetarian, and reduce the consumption of industrial meat and dairy
  98. 98. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com The livestock industry – meat & dairy – is causing 15% of global warming
  99. 99. Who, - me? Who, - me?
  100. 100. Me?Me?
  101. 101. 100% Delicious Vegetarian Food
  102. 102. 7. Work to restore 25% of local forests to an old growth restoration trajectory by 2020, 50% by 2030, 100% by 2040
  103. 103. Global Deforestation 1.5 Gigatonnes of carbon a year
  104. 104. Klanawa Valley, Vancouver Island TJ Watt
  105. 105. Merv Wilkinson at Wildwood
  106. 106. Second growth forest, needs thinning
  107. 107. Wildwood Forest with added carbon storage
  108. 108. 8. Adopt a strategy for the whole regional economy to become a restorative economy by 2040
  109. 109. The transition from a capitalist economy to a green, entrepreneurial cooperative economy could be one of the defining achievements of the 21st century.
  110. 110. The Economics of Kindness Homo Economicus Homo Amicus
  111. 111. The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy
  112. 112. The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy Ecological Wealth
  113. 113. The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy Ecological Wealth Individual Agency
  114. 114. The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy Ecological Wealth TrustTrust
  115. 115. The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy Ecological Wealth TrustTrust Future Faith in the
  116. 116. The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy Ecological Wealth TrustTrust Future Faith in the Cultural wealth
  117. 117. The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy Ecological Wealth TrustTrust Future Faith in the Cultural wealth Community wealth
  118. 118. The Eight Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy Ecological Wealth TrustTrust Future Faith in the Cultural wealth Community wealth Public wealth
  119. 119. The Dimensions of Wealth in a Real Economy Ecological Wealth TrustTrust Future Faith in the Cultural wealth Community wealth Public wealth Private wealth
  120. 120. Green Space Great Schools Social Space Affordable Childcare Solar Energy Community Wealth A Sharing Economy Urban Food Work-sharing Citizens Income Affordable Housing Free Post-Sec Education Great Public Transport Bike Lanes Social Business Social Banking A Cooperative Economy A Circular Economy
  121. 121. Kate Raworth Oxfam Economist
  122. 122. A CVRD Regional Sustainability Meeting in 2020
  123. 123. 9. Stay really engaged in climate impact preparation and mitigation
  124. 124. 10. Persuade all other regional districts on Vancouver Island to adopt the same goals
  125. 125. A self-interested ‘homo economicus’ economy
  126. 126. A common good ‘homo amicus’ economy
  127. 127. A Vancouver Island Sustainability Gathering in 2021
  128. 128. A Roadmap for Rapid Decarbonization Science, March 24 2017
  129. 129. “A fabulous book … a sweeping vision” – James Hansen, NASA
  130. 130. “A joyous, hope- filled manual.” - Bill McKibben 350.org
  131. 131. The Biggest Global Climate Solution You Have Never Heard Of
  132. 132. WORLD FUTURE COUNCIL
  133. 133. Chief Economist World Future Council
  134. 134. Massive acceleration to achieve 100% renewable energy needs an investment of $1.5 to $2 trillion a year. $300 billion a year is needed in public grants. Chief Economist World Future Council
  135. 135. “Climate change initiatives offer a $5-7 trillion funding opportunity for capital markets.” Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England
  136. 136. Established to keep the global temperature increase below 2°C by investing in low-emission climate-resilient development.
  137. 137. Advanced economies have agreed to mobilize $100 billion a year by 2020, but only $10 billion has been raised so far.
  138. 138. Where does new money come from?
  139. 139. A. Is it printed by the Central Banks, reflecting the quantity of gold in reserves? NO. Where does new money come from?
  140. 140. A. Is it printed by the Central Banks, reflecting the quantity of gold in reserves? NO. B. Is it created by Private Banks based on their fractional reserves? YES, kind of. Where does new money come from?
  141. 141. A. Is it printed by the Central Banks, reflecting the quantity of gold in reserves? NO. B. Is it created by Private Banks based on their fractional reserves? YES, kind of. C. Is it created by Central Banks out of thin Where does new money come from?
  142. 142. “The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled.” - John Kenneth Galbraith
  143. 143. New money is not created out of thin air, but out of shared social trust.
  144. 144. Public TRUST…
  145. 145. Public TRUST… Allows money creation…
  146. 146. Public TRUST… Allows money creation… Allows banking…
  147. 147. The Bank of Gandalf can create money out of thin air because of social trust.
  148. 148. Quantitative Easing
  149. 149. Quantitative Easing for the Climate
  150. 150. The World’s Central Banks
  151. 151. Issues $300 billion a year in Green Climate Bonds
  152. 152. Issues $300 billion a year in Green Climate Bonds World’s Central Banks create $300 billion a year to buy the bonds
  153. 153. Issues $300 billion a year in Green Climate Bonds World’s Central Banks create $300 billion a year to buy the bonds $300 billion a year
  154. 154. Distributes $300 Billion a year as leverage to attract private capital
  155. 155. Distributes $300 Billion a year as leverage to attract private capital which invests $1.2 trillion a year in renewable energy and climate solutions
  156. 156. Not an inflationary risk Global economic output: $80 trillion a year Global Central Banks Climate Stimulus $300 billion a year 0.375% monetary increase a year
  157. 157. 20 metres sea-level rise
  158. 158. Collapse is Possible
  159. 159. A Great Transition is Possible
  160. 160. Climate and the Economy: Beauty and the Beast www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
  161. 161. “Brilliant!” - David Suzuki “A tour-de-force” - Tzeporah Berman

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