Presentation to the BCSEA Victoria Chapter, November 17th 2017. What are the emotional, analytical and engagement needs of champions? What are the barriers, and how can they be overcome?

1. 100% Renewable Energy for BC
The Psycho-Politics of Success
100%
Renewable
Energy
for British
Columbia
100%
Renewable
Energy
for British
Columbia
Presentation by Guy Dauncey
to the BC Sustainable Energy Association
Victoria Chapter AGM, November 16th
, 2017

4. The last time the world was 3C warmer,
the sea level was 25 metres higher.

5. Vancouver 20 Metres Sea-Level Rise

6. So what is our future to be?

7. Collapse is
Possible

8. A Great Transition is Possible

9. A Great Transition is Possible
100% RE

10. It’s up to each of us to choose.
And then to act.

11. 100% RE!!!100% RE!!!

12. VANCOUVER
has voted to go
100% RENEWABLE

13. VICTORIA
has voted to go
100% RENEWABLE

14. SAAANICH
has voted to go
100% RENEWABLE

15. 100% RE100% RE

16. CYNICS vs CHAMPIONS
100% RE100% RE

17. CYNICS CHAMPIONSDUCKS
Don’t
Understand
Conditional
Knowledge
Most people are

19. How best to educate children about
climate change? Doomsday scenarios can
frighten children, fueling helplessness and
hopelessness.
In a 2007 study of Australian 10-14 year
olds, 27% believed that the world might
end in their lifetimes due to climate
change.
Psychology Today, December 2015

21. So parents and environmental educators need to
find the ‘sweet spot’ between well founded alarm
and positive strategies. Our children, as future
stewards of the planet, need hope.
In a 2012 survey study of 723 Swedish teenagers,
those who expressed “constructive hope” had more
positive environmental attitudes and engaged in
more positive behaviors such as reducing energy
consumption and recycling.
By contrast, those who felt hopeless or whose
optimism was founded on denial of climate change
did little or nothing.
Psychology Today, December 2015

32. Guy Dauncey 2009
www.earthfuture.com©Antonia Dreamstime.com
Powerful Emotion

33. + Powerful Vision

34. Annual
reduction in
CO2
emissions
% of
Canada’s
2015
emissions
Year by when
zero
emissions is
achieved
Mt of CO2
released
before before
reaching
zero
Achieved
emissions
reduction
below the
2015 level
Year by when
6,000 Mt
carbon budget
is exhausted
5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028
10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029
15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030
20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033
25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a
+ Powerful Analysis
Canada’s Emissions Reductions Options

35. The falling price of EV batteries
+ Powerful Facts

36. + Powerful Engagement

37. Farewell and Thank
You, Fossil Fuels
Welcome,
Solar Age!
No Blame

38. The Race to a Clean
Green Economy
The Race to a Clean
Green Economy

39. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Every year
renewable energy
increase

40. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Every year
5-10% CO2 reduction

41. 100% RE100% RE

42. 100% RE100% RE
Analyzing the Resistance

43. 100% RE100% RE
MoEMoE
Ministry of Energy Resistance

44. 100% RE100% RE
MoEMoE
Ministry of Energy Resistance
The Middle Manager Conformity Effect
Less willing to take risks and be original
Prefers to follow the leader

45. 100% RE100% RE
MoEMoE
Ministry of Energy Resistance
List the people we know, the ones we
don’t, and the key decision-makers.
Develop a strategy.

46. 100% RE100% RE
MoEMoE
FFFF
Ministry of Energy Resistance
Fossil Fuel
Resistance

47. 100% RE100% RE
MoEMoE
FFFF
Ministry of Energy Resistance
Fossil Fuel
Resistance
NDP Resistance
NDP

48. 100% RE100% RE
MoEMoE
FFFF
Ministry of Energy Resistance
Fossil Fuel
Resistance
NDP Resistance
NDP
Profile every MLA
Find the champions
Find the cynics
Find the DUCKS
“Adopt an MLA”

49. 100% RE100% RE
MoEMoE
FFFF
MediaMedia
Ministry of Energy Resistance
Fossil Fuel
Resistance
NDP Resistance
Media
Mockery
NDP

50. 100% RE100% RE
MoEMoE
FFFF
MediaMedia
Ministry of Energy Resistance
Fossil Fuel
Resistance
NDP Resistance
Media
Mockery
NDP Find media
champions

51. 100% RE100% RE
MoEMoE
FFFF
MediaMedia
NDP

52. 100% RE100% RE
MoEMoE
FFFF
MediaMedia
Public Credibility Barrier
Credibility
NDP
Credibility

53. 100% RE100% RE

54. FF100% RE100% RE

55. FF100% RE100% RE
How-To
Electricity
Transportation
Buildings
Industry
Farming

56. FF100% RE100% RE
How-To
Electricity
Transportation
Buildings
Industry
Farming
Job Losses
and Gains

57. FF100% RE100% RE
How-To
Electricity
Transportation
Buildings
Industry
Farming
Job Losses
and Gains
Transition
Pains and
Benefits

58. FF100% RE100% RE
Provincial
Financial
Impacts
How-To
Electricity
Transportation
Buildings
Industry
Farming
Job Losses
and Gains
Transition
Pains and
Benefits

59. 100% RE100% RE

60. 100% RE100% RE
Don’t be
a Messiah,
a Pollyanna

61. 100% RE100% RE
Don’t be
a Messiah,
a Pollyanna
Lay out
all the
Problems

62. 100% RE100% RE
Engage
the Cynics &
Dissenters
Don’t be
a Messiah,
a Pollyanna
Lay out
all the
Problems

63. 100% RE100% RE
Engage
the Cynics &
Dissenters
Don’t be
a Messiah,
a Pollyanna
Lay out
all the
Problems
Engage people
as problem-
solvers

64. By 2025, Holland is preparing to ban the
purchase of gas and diesel cars

66. 20 metres sea-level rise

67. The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries
2018

71. Norway’s Transport Plan assumes that electric cars
could have 100% share of new car sales by 2025.

72. From 2025, all BMWs to be electric

74. 2nd
hand Nissan Leaf: $17,000
www.motorizevictoria.ca

75. Barcelona is moving ALL buses to
100% electric by 2020

76. Bio-methane from Bristol's sewage
treatment (UK) 300 km on a tank of gas.

77. Well-to-wheel, biomethane produces
95% less CO2 than diesel

78. Well-to-wheel, biomethane produces
95% less CO2 than diesel

79. Australian/Chinese Brighsun Bus
500 km on one charge, full passenger load

81. REBUILDING
COMMUNITY

82. Where cars dominates, people connect less.
Less sense of neighbourhood.
Less mutual support.

83. Which do you prefer…

84. Or

85. Or

86. Or

87. Passive Houses, Victoria
90% reduced heat loss

88. Passive House, Victoria, B.C.
90% less heat energy, 15 kwh/m2
, 4.4% more cost
www.bernhardtpassive.com

89. Stockholm, 80,000 apartments
heat from treated sewage

90. Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta
Stored Solar Thermal Heat

91. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.comOkotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating

93. 800 solar hot water panels on the garages

95. Energy Centre
Community solar
Thermal panels
90% solar heating throughout the
cold Alberta winter

96. Marstal, on the Danish island of Aero
100% solar district heat + 23.4 MWth solar thermal storage
+ Biomass cogeneration plant
Stored Solar District Heat

97. Six Sources of Renewable Heat
Air-source heat Ground-source heat Stored solar heat
Biomass/Biogas Heat exchange ventilator Dog-source heat

98. Industrial Heat: No coal substitutes yet

99. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
The livestock industry – meat & dairy –
is causing 15% of global warming

100. Who,
- me?
Who,
- me?

102. HOW MANY
FOSSIL FUEL
JOBS
WILL END?
HOW MANY
NEW JOBS
WILL BE
CREATED?

103. Almost Twice as Many
Green Jobs in Canada
By Guy Dauncey
800,000 fossil fuel jobs lost
1,000,000 green energy jobs gained

104. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Canada has 555,000 direct and
indirect jobs in fossil fuels

105. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
If phased out by 2040: 22,000 jobs
disappear each year.
If phased out by 2050: 16,000 jobs
disappear each year.
555,000
Direct and Indirect
Fossil Fuel Jobs

106. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Where will the new jobs be?
1.Renewable Electricity
2.Building Retrofits
3.Railway Electrification
4.Cycling
5.Electric Vehicles
6.Transit
7.Farming
If by 2040:
Can we create 22,000 new jobs a year?
If by 2050:
Can we create 16,000 new jobs year?

108. Mark Carney,
Governor, Bank of England
“Climate change initiatives offer a
$5-7 trillion funding opportunity
for capital markets.”

109. Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Canada Electricity Demand 2014
511 TWh
Canada Electricity Demand 2040
750 TWh
Canada Renewable Electricity 2013
330 TWh
New Renewables Needed by 2040
420 TWh

110. 100% RE
In BC
100% RE
In BC
1. Political Strategy
2. Climate Action Circles

111. Grassroots
Climate Action Circles
WATER
AIR FIRE

114. 100% RE100% RE

115. Sustained success because of:
1.Specific targeted action: letter-writing at each meeting
2.Training, back-up and support
3.Knowing they are part of a larger motivated movement

116. Grassroots Movement
Climate Action Circles

117. Grassroots Movement
Climate Action Circles
Mental
Learning

118. Grassroots Movement
Climate Action Circles
Practical
Action
Mental
Learning

120. Grassroots Movement
Climate Action Circles
Social
Warmth
Practical
Action
Mental
Learning

121. Grassroots Movement
Climate Action Circles
Social
Warmth
Practical
Action
Mental
Learning
Spiritual
Connection

122. Political StrategyPolitical Strategy
100% RE100% RE

123. 1. A Really Solid Case + Polling Data

124. Six months
Foundation Funded
Six months
Foundation Funded
A Really Solid Case + Polling Data
100% RE100% RE

125. 1. A Really Solid Case + Polling Data
2. Individual Credibility Champions

126. UBC, UVic, SFU, UNBC
Business Leaders
Retired Political Leaders
Global Status Endorsements
Conferred credibility
UBC, UVic, SFU, UNBC
Business Leaders
Retired Political Leaders
Global Status Endorsements
Conferred credibility
Individual Credibility Champions
100% RE100% RE

127. 1. A Really Solid Case + Polling Data
2. Individual Credibility Champions
3. Visionary Branding+ Social Media

128. Advice from
Dogwood
Youth video host
Logo contest
Humor
Hilarious cat videos
100% RE100% RE

129. 1. A Really Solid Case + Polling Data
2. Individual Credibility Champions
3. Visionary Branding+ Social Media
4. NGO Partner Champions

130. A Safe and Easy
Sign-On Statement

131. A Safe and Easy
Sign-On Statement
Personal relationship
With each NGO

132. 1. A Really Solid Case + Polling Data
2. Individual Credibility Champions
3. Visionary Branding+ Social Media
4. NGO Partner Champions
5. Insider Allies – NDP, MoE, UBCM

133. Brainstorm names
Personal approach to each
100%
RE
100%
RE

134. 1. A Really Solid Case + Polling Data
2. Individual Credibility Champions
3. Visionary Branding+ Social Media
4. NGO Partner Champions
5. Insider Allies – NDP, MoE, UBCM
6. Two Year Strategy for Success

135. 1. A Really Solid Case + Polling Data
2. Individual Credibility Champions
3. Visionary Branding+ Social Media
4. NGO Partner Champions
5. Insider Allies – NDP, MoE, UBCM
6. Two Year Strategy for Success
7. Climate Action
Circles

136. 100% RE100% RE
MoEMoE
FFFF
MediaMedia
Public Credibility Barrier
Credibility
NDP
Credibility

137. 100% RE100% RE
MoEMoE
FFFF
MediaMedia
Credibility
NDP
Credibility
Climate
Action
Circles
Political
Strategy

138. 100% RE

148. May 2019: “We are pleased to announce that after much
thought and analysis, and due consideration of the costs to
present and future generations of the looming climate
catastrophe, we are making the commitment that we will
strive to achieve as close as possible to 100% renewable
energy for all of BC’s energy needs by 2040.”

149. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com
100% RE

150. Coming soon!

152. 100% RE!!!100% RE!!!