Imagining a Green, Beautiful Oak Bay in 2034

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A vision of how Oak Bay, in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, could be green, sustainable and even more beautiful in 2034. A presentation to the Oak Bay Heritage Society, April 16, 2014.

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Imagining a Green, Beautiful Oak Bay in 2034

  1. 1. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Imagining a Beautiful Green Future Oak Bay, 2034 Guy Dauncey Oak Bay Heritage Society, 2014
  2. 2. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Our first home in Oak Bay
  3. 3. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Our second home in Oak Bay
  4. 4. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  6. 6. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  7. 7. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  8. 8. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Heritage: to me that means „built with love,‟ which makes us want to preserve it.
  9. 9. Big picture: we have come a long way from this…
  10. 10. To this…
  11. 11. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com To this…
  12. 12. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com To this…
  13. 13. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com To this…
  14. 14. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com but…
  15. 15. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Smithore Dreamstime.com We have also come to this…
  16. 16. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  19. 19. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com GDP = Gross Depletion of the Planet
  20. 20. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Gross Depletion of the Planet + Yield - Costs = Profit
  21. 21. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Gross Depletion of the Planet
  22. 22. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  24. 24. Garth Lenz
  25. 25. Garth Lenz
  26. 26. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com
  27. 27. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Liquefied Natural Gas - also a Fossil Fuel
  28. 28. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second
  29. 29. Climate Emergency
  30. 30. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  34. 34. The last time the world was 3°C warmer the sea level was 25 metres higher
  35. 35. 2 metres 10 metres 18 metres 25 metres
  36. 36. 1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
  37. 37. 3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
  38. 38. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 1 metre sea-level rise
  39. 39. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 20 metre sea-level rise
  40. 40. We have also come to this…
  41. 41. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com And this… And this…
  42. 42. The power of our vision must be stronger than the power of our fears
  43. 43. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com “The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.” ― Eleanor Roosevelt
  44. 44. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com "Dreams are extremely important. You can't do it unless you can imagine it.” - George Lucas
  45. 45. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  46. 46. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future for Oak Bay?
  47. 47. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Seven Themes 1: Transportation without Fossil Fuels 2: The Return of Nature 3: Local Urban Farming 4: The Streets Where We Live 5: Affordable Housing 6: Energy without Fossil Fuels 7: How Do We Make It Happen?
  48. 48. Transportation without Oil
  49. 49. Mama, waaah! Where are you?
  50. 50. The Joyful Pedestrian
  51. 51. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  58. 58. Neighbourhood Walkability Audit www.walklive.org
  59. 59. Toronto Walking School Bus
  60. 60. The Joyful Cyclist
  61. 61. In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle
  62. 62. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comCRD Pedestrian and Cycling Master Plan
  63. 63.  Safe bike lanes and routes  Good bike parking  Cycling education in schools
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  68. 68. Electric Bikes
  69. 69. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  71. 71. The Copenhagen Wheel
  72. 72. Tony‟s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com
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  75. 75. The Joyful Transit Rider
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  79. 79. Free transit, paid in city taxes From 1996-2006 ridership increased from 1,000 to 12,600 riders a day Payment is now $1 per ride. Hasselt, Belgium
  80. 80. Real-time electronic bus stops
  81. 81. 2034 Heritage Oak Bay Bus Shelters
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  83. 83. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  84. 84. Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment
  85. 85. 100% Electric Buses
  86. 86. OLEV On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea
  87. 87. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Small local connector buses
  88. 88. See Victoria Carshare Coop 650 members share 23 vehicles www.victoriacarshare.ca The Happy Car Sharer
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  90. 90. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 2014
  91. 91. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 2034
  92. 92. Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing Vehicles owners earn up to $300 a month
  93. 93. Top Hiroko EV
  94. 94. Top
  95. 95. Renault Twizy EV  2 seats, 100 km range  80 kph, 3.5 hours recharge  $9,700 + $60/month battery lease
  96. 96. In UK: $10,600 + $65 monthly battery lease charge Top
  97. 97. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range
  98. 98. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Smart Electric – 135 km range
  99. 99. Mitsubishi MiEV – 150 km range
  100. 100. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Toyota RAV4 EV - 148 km range
  101. 101. Tesla Model-X: 300-400 km range
  102. 102. 10,000 km = 1,500 kWh 1,500 kwh @ 10 cents = $13 a month Gas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month The Cost of Power for Electric Cars EV Bargain!! 10 times cheaper to run!
  103. 103. 1.5 kW solar PV $6,000 5% 25 year mortgage on $6,000 = $35 a month Gas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month
  104. 104. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com No fossil fuel pollution = clear skies
  105. 105. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 2: The Return of Nature
  106. 106. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  113. 113. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com Brooklyn Public School 216 Arturo Toscanini, New York Turning dull concrete schoolyards…
  114. 114. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com into Green Schoolyards
  115. 115. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  116. 116. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Restoring Bowker Creek
  117. 117. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  119. 119. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Rainwater Storage
  120. 120. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  121. 121. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Semiahmoo Transit Station Surrey, BC, Canada Bringing greenery into our towns and cities…
  122. 122. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.greenovergrey.com
  123. 123. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Hundertwasserhaus, Vienna
  124. 124. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  125. 125. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Musee du Quai Branly, Paris Patrick Blanc, Le Mur Vegetal
  126. 126. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Athenaeum Hotel, London Patrick Blanc
  127. 127. Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.com 3: Urban Farming
  128. 128. Food imported to Vancouver Island: 95%
  129. 129. Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c
  130. 130. Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c
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  134. 134. Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c
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  138. 138. Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c
  139. 139. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Boulevards being „vegetablized‟
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  145. 145. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Schools Growing Their Own Food
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  150. 150. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com4: The Streets Where We Live
  151. 151. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com London: a Garden Bridge across the Thames Thomas Heatherwick
  152. 152. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  153. 153. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com The Highline Converted Railway, New York
  154. 154. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea Before and After
  155. 155. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea
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  187. 187. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Creekside Commons Cohousing, Courtenay
  188. 188. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  192. 192. Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.cPortland, Oregon www.CityRepair.org
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  196. 196. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 5: Affordable Housing
  197. 197. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  200. 200. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Affordability Initiatives Inclusionary Zoning: eg all new developments must include 20% affordable and 15% low income units
  201. 201. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Affordability Initiatives Density Bonusing: Additional units in return for extra community benefits
  202. 202. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Affordability Initiatives Secondary Suites… But with a “no cars” covenant
  203. 203. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  205. 205. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Car-Free Laneway Housing
  206. 206. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  207. 207. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Rooftop Housing
  208. 208. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Communal ownership
  209. 209. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com A Community Land Trust buys land for affordable housing Hannah Wittman/Michelle Colussi
  210. 210. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com $$ for the Community Land Trust • Progressively increasing tax on real estate sales over $2 million • 15% sales tax on properties bought through offshore companies • Annual levy on properties registered offshore for tax reasons • Escalating tax on empty properties to stop developers from sitting on them
  211. 211. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Micro-homes 502 Alexander St Vancouver 280 sq ft 12 units, base cost $85,000 each CMHC
  212. 212. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Communal Renting legal for more than five people
  213. 213. Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c 6: Energy without Fossil Fuels
  214. 214. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  215. 215. 2014: 4 kW PV = $16,000 4,400 kWh year Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  216. 216. 2034: 4 kW PV = $6,000 4,400 kWh year Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Will save $30,000 - $60,000 over the 30 year life of the panels
  217. 217. 100 GW in 2012 Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  218. 218. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 134 GW in 2013 9000% increase since 2000
  219. 219. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Solar Hot Water
  220. 220. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  221. 221. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Air Source Solar Heat
  222. 222. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Water-Source Solar Heat
  223. 223. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com
  224. 224. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Construction costs: 4.3% more per square foot
  225. 225. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Monthly net energy savings more than the increased mortgage
  226. 226. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
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  230. 230. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com Neolithic Era Ancient Egypt Roman Empire Islamic Golden Age 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 The Age of Oil ………………………………………. The last 10,000 years
  231. 231. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com The last 10,000 years ................................................... What happens here, when we stop using oil?
  232. 232. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com A billion years The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years. That‟s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years
  233. 233. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com A billion years The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years. And with every passing year, solar technology will improve and get cheaper.
  234. 234. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 7: A Cooperative Economy Businesses flourishing in harmony with other businesses, and with workers, community, nature and the world.
  235. 235. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Many businesses have become Benefit Corporations
  236. 236. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  237. 237. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Most businesses have Women Directors on the Board “Companies with more Women Board Directors experience higher financial performance, according to latest Catalyst Bottom Line Report.”
  238. 238. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com All businesses are incentivized to acquire Green Business Certification
  239. 239. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Youth Enterprise Initiatives flourish
  240. 240. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Time-banking is flourishing VANCOUVER
  241. 241. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Student Debt problems have been solved
  242. 242. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com The Oregon Solution: Pay It Forward
  243. 243. The Sharing Economy is thriving
  244. 244. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com A Good Minimum Wage is Normal…
  245. 245. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com A Happy, Resilient Future More walking, biking, bus, carsharing Lower transport costs More urban food gardens Cheaper and healthier eating Innovative affordable housing Lower housing costs Stronger neighbourhoods More friends, more real community More urban greenery More inner space, and peace Stronger community economy More financial security Green, energy-efficient homes Lower energy costs No more fossil fuels Clean air, clear sky, quiet city More civic engagement Healthier political realm Basic Income Less poverty, fear and homelessness More arts, music and neighbourhood celebration More friends, more happiness, more love
  246. 246. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 7: How Do We Make It Happen?
  247. 247. Community engagement
  248. 248. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Engaging Young People www.leadingchangenetwork.com
  249. 249. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electronic ballots Voting aged reduced to 16 Transferable Voting for City Hall $100 tax credit for voting
  250. 250. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Design the Future Community Meetings
  251. 251. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com A Green, Sustainable Future is not an „Option‟ It is an Urgent Necessity
  252. 252. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  253. 253. Special Price $5
  254. 254. Special Price $5
  255. 255. Special Price $5
  256. 256. Special Price $5
  257. 257. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com This is about us, our planet, our children and our future.
  258. 258. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
  259. 259. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com

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