1. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com

2. Guy Dauncey 2014
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3. Guy Dauncey 2014
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4. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Burning fossil fuels
and destroying Earth’s forests
Is causing THIS

5. Guy Dauncey 2014
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6. Guy Dauncey 2014
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7. The current increase in global warming is
"...equivalent to exploding 400,000 Hiroshima
atomic bombs per day, 365 days per year. That’s
how much extra energy Earth is gaining each day.”
- James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist
Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com

8. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com
The last time the world
was 3°C warmer,
during the Pliocene era,
the global sea level was up to
25 metres
higher

9. http://flood.firetree.net
Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com 3 metres sea-level rise

10. Guy Dauncey 2014
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11. Guy Dauncey 2014
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12. Guy Dauncey 2014
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14. Guy Dauncey 2014
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If global warming exceeds
1.6°C
up to
31%
of Earth’s species
will be committed to
extinction,
having nowhere to go
to escape the rising heat

15. Guy Dauncey 2014
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16. Guy Dauncey 2014
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17. Guy Dauncey 2014
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18. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Ireland’s great winter storm of 2014
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

19. Guy Dauncey 2014
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20. Guy Dauncey 2014
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21. Guy Dauncey 2014
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www.earthfuture.com

22. Guy Dauncey 2014
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www.earthfuture.com

23. Guy Dauncey 2014
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24. Guy Dauncey 2014
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www.earthfuture.com

25. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
GDP =
Gross
Depletion
of the
Planet

26. Guy Dauncey 2014
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27. Guy Dauncey 2014
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28. Guy Dauncey 2014
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29. The power
of our vision
must be stronger than
Guy Dauncey 2014
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the power
of our fears

30. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Two Possible
Futures
One YES
One NO

31. The Skeptic’s Fear of Life without Oil
Guy Dauncey 2014
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32. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
?

33. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Which path
will you
take?
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

34. “The future belongs to those who believe
Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com
in the beauty of their dreams.”
― Eleanor Roosevelt
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

35. So what is our vision of
a beautiful, desirable future?
Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

36. Saying YES
as well as NO
Solar, Wind, Wave
100% Renewables
Green Buildings
Green Cities
Cycling
Electric Transit
Electric Cars
Carsharing
Organic Farming
EcoForestry
Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com
Green Chemistry
Biomimicry
Smart Tech
Education
Innovation
Software
Robotics
3-D Printing
Soul & Eco-Tourism
Holistic Healthcare

37. Guy Dauncey 2014
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38. Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia
Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com
BCSEA 2013
www.bcsea.org

39. Germany’s Path Towards 100% Renewable
Energy Regions, with Beate Fischer
Guy Dauncey 2014
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40. Guy Dauncey 2014
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We do not need to
hate or vilify fossil fuels.
They have been amazing.
We should praise them,
and then end the affair.

41. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com
The Sun is everywhere,
but for the past five million years,
all we could do
was look at it.
Guy Dauncey 2009
www.earthfuture.com

42. For 500,000 years, we harvested the
Sun’s energy through firewood
Guy Dauncey 2014
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43. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2009
www.earthfuture.com
We wanted energy,
But we did not know how
to gather it directly from the Sun.
But then we discovered fossil fuels.

44. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com
It was fossil fuels
that launched the Industrial Age,
and the modern world.

45. Guy Dauncey 2014
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It is fossilized solar energy
that has made advanced engineering,
solar PV and electric vehicles possible.

46. The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the essential
Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com
LAUNCH RAMP
for the Solar Age
500,000 years
Firewood
300 years
Fossil Fuels
1,750,000,000 years
Solar Energy

47. For the next 1,750,000,000 years, we will
be able to harvest the Sun’s energy
Guy Dauncey 2014
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directly through advanced
solar technologies

48. The Age of
Firewood
Guy Dauncey 2014
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The Age of
Fossil Fuels
The Solar Age

49. The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
A billion years
That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com

50. The Sun will not begin to turn
into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
A billion years
And with every passing year,
solar technology will improve
Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
and fall in price.

51. Guy Dauncey 2014
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53. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com www.thesolutionsproject.org

54. Guy Dauncey 2014
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55. Guy Dauncey 2014
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56. Could
B.C.
Become
a 100%
Renewable
Energy Region?
PART 1:
ELECTRICITY
Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com

57. BC Hydro’s Power 2014, GWh
BC Hydro dams 43,000 72%
IPP Hydro dams 4,911 8%
IPP Run-of-River hydro 3,535 6%
IPP Natural Gas 3,140 5%
IPP Biomass 2,505 4%
IPP Wind 1,337 2%
IPP Garbage incineration 131
IPP Biogas 91
TOTAL 59,000
Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com
Not included: FortisBC, Municipal Utilities
IPP = Independent Power Producer

58. Fossil Fuels - Natural Gas:
Island Generation, Campbell River
Contracted until 2022
275 MW
2,300 GWh a year
Guy Dauncey 2014
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59. BC Hydro Dams: 43,000 GWh a year
Guy Dauncey 2014
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= 73% of BC’s power

60. Assumed savings by 2025 from
energy efficiency & conservation
Guy Dauncey 2014
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13,000 GWh pa

61. New Electricity Supply needed by 2025:
Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com
23,600 GWh
Source: CanWEA

62. Guy Dauncey 2014
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BC’s wind
energy
potential
Onshore: 39,000 GWh
Offshore: 59,000 GWh
WINDVISION 2025:
5250 MW by 2025
= 14,500 GWh pa
CanWEA

63. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Solar PV

64. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Price of Solar PV
per Watt
1977: $77
1997: $7
2013: $0.7
A hundredfold fall
in the price of solar PV
since 1977

65. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Mass production = falling prices

66. Guy Dauncey 2014
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100 GW
in 2012
Solar PV 7000% increase
since 2000
137 GW
in 2013

67. Guy Dauncey 2014
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68. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com Vauban, Freiburg, Germany

69. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.Kcomagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan

70. Guy Dauncey 2014
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71. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com Solar Stadium, Taiwan

72. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com T’Sou-ke Nation Solar Project

73. Guy Dauncey 2014
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74. Solar Economics in BC, 2014
Guy Dauncey 2014
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$4 a watt
12 cents kwh, 3% per year increase
3% finance
Cost per watt $4
4 kW + tax $16,800
Finance @ 3%$29,300
kWh per year 4,400
25-year savings $21,900
Result -$7,400

75. Solar Economics in BC, 2020
Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com
$1.60 a watt
15.5 cents kwh, 3% per year increase
Cash down
Cost per kW $1,600
4 kW + 5% tax $6,720
kWh per year 4,400
25 year savings $25,600
Profit +$19,000

76. By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW solar
could lose its owner up to $1,000 a year
Guy Dauncey 2014
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77. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2014
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78. By 2020, every commercial roof that is not
solar could lose its owner $10,000 a year
Guy Dauncey 2014
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79. Solar Potential in BC, 2025
Guy Dauncey 2014
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7,000 GWh pa

80. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com
Natural gas:
5 jobs per $1 million
Solar:
14.5 jobs per
$1 million
Building Retrofits:
17 jobs per $1 million
Mass Transit:
22 jobs per $1 million

81. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com
Dan Kammen &
Ditlev Engel
Copenhagen
Climate Council
2009

82. Potential Direct Solar Jobs in BC
7,000 GWh x 0.91 = 6,370 jobs
Guy Dauncey 2014
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83. Wave, Tidal, Geothermal Power
Guy Dauncey 2014
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84. POLICY – WHAT’S NEEDED?
Current Policy:
2010: 93% of BC’s power must be clean or
renewable
2012 : BC Government defines natural gas as
“clean”
What’s needed:
•By 2022, 100% of BC’s power must be clean
and renewable
•Phase out natural gas-fired power by 2022
•Increase commitment to energy conservation
and efficiency
Guy Dauncey 2014
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85. Could
B.C.
Become
a 100%
Renewable
Energy Region?
PART 2:
BUILDINGS
Guy Dauncey 2014
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86. Guy Dauncey 2014
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OIL

87. Guy Dauncey 2014
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OIL

88. Guy Dauncey 2014
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90. Guy Dauncey 2014
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91. Guy Dauncey 2014
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94. Planned Natural Gas Pipelines in BC
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Watershed Sentinel

95. Guy Dauncey 2014
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The Red
Blower
Door
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

96. Rolling in the Pink
Guy Dauncey 2014
EarthfuUture.cpom to $600 for low-income attic insulation

97. Saving Energy – Happy to be a HERO
Up Guy Dauncey 2014
to $1,000 for basement insulation
Earthfuture.com

98. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Internal wall insulation
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

99. Solar Air Source Heat Pump
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

100. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Geothermal
Ground-source
Geo-exchange
Heat Pump

101. Guy Dauncey 2014
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102. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Geothermal Heat Pump
Austrian radial-drilling
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

103. Guy Dauncey 2014
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www.earthfuture.com

104. Stabilized Insulated Rammed Earth
Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
SIREWALL R-50

105. SIREWALL insulates 13.5 times more than a
concrete wall of the same thickness;
5.5 times more than a rammed earth wall.
Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

106. Guy Dauncey 2014
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WE CAN ACHIEVE
90%
HEAT ENERGY
REDUCTION
IN NEW HOMES
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

107. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com

108. Guy Dauncey 2014
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109. Guy Dauncey 2014
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110. Guy Dauncey 2014
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www.earthfuture.com
16" foam insulation under slab and
outside foundation walls
8” studs, 24” OC with plywood and OSB
EuroLine Windows fiberglass/UPVC
triple-glazed U= 0.73
Air tightness 0.6 ACH at 50 pa.
(1.6 for R2000; up to 10 older homes)
Blown cellulose insulation
Heat recovery ventilation: 90% exhaust
heat transferred to incoming fresh air
Natural gas hot water, space heat

111. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
= 4.3% more www.earthfuture.com

112. Solar Thermal District Heating
Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta
Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

113. Guy Dauncey 2014
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800
solar hot water
panels
on the garages
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
90% of residential space
heating needs met by solar
thermal energy (40-50o C)
Reduction - 5 tonnes of
greenhouse gas emissions
per home per year.

114. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Solar Thermal Heating
12 months a year
The Energy Centre
Community
solar heat
panels
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Solar hot water
panels

115. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

116. Year-round solar thermal heating
Guy Dauncey 2014
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Germany
www.wagner-solar.com

117. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Sweden, Stockholm
Treated sewage effluent heats 80,000 apartments

118. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
Vancouver False Creek Sewage-Based Dwwwis.eatrrthifuctutre .Hcome at

119. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com Planned District Energy Centres, Vancouver
Guy Dauncey 2014
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120. POLICY – WHAT’S NEEDED?
Current Policy:
Building Code. Small energy conservation
incentives. That’s it.
What’s needed:
•All houses to upgrade to new energy code at
point of sale (as Berkeley, San Francisco)
•All apartment buildings and condos to audit
for energy efficiency every ten years
•Major incentives for zero carbon upgrades
•By 2020, all new buildings to be zero carbon
(as UK, California)
Guy Dauncey 2014
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121. Could
B.C.
Become
a 100%
Renewable
Energy
Region?
PART 3:
TRANSPORTATION
Guy Dauncey 2014
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122. Guy Dauncey 2014
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For all Light Transport,
100% Renewable Energy is Possible

123. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com 5% shift of trips to walking

124. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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125. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Istanbul,
Turkey

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130. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Seoul, South Korea

131. Guy Dauncey 2014
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The Highline Converted Railway, Nwweww.ea rtYhfuoturre.kcom

132. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Brooklyn Bridge Remix/Redux
Terreform and Michael Sorkin Studio

133. London: a Garden Bridge across the Thames
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Thomas Heatherwick

134. Guy Dauncey 2014
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135. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com 15% trip shift to cycling

136. In Holland, cycling is the main mode of
Guy Dauncey 2014
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transport for 31% of the people

137. Guy Dauncey 2014
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138. Guy Dauncey 2014
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139. Guy Dauncey 2014
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140. Guy Dauncey 2014
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141. Guy Dauncey 2014
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146. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Granville Street Bridge
Vancouver’s Imagined Future

147. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Electric Bikes

148. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

149. Guy Dauncey 2014
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150. Guy Dauncey 2014
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151. Guy Dauncey 2014
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www.earthfuture.com

152. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com 15% Trip Shift to Transit and LRT

153. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com Curitiba, Brazil

154. Guy Dauncey 2014
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OLEV
On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

155. Electric Light Trail Transit
Mulhouse, Germany
Guy Dauncey 2014
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156. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com Shift to Telework

157. Four people in Beijing
Five people in Vancouver
Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com Cisco Systems

158. 5% Trip Shift to Ride-Sharing
Guy Dauncey 2014
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159. See
Guy Dauncey 2014
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Shift to Car Sharing

160. Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing
Guy Dauncey 2014
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Vehicle owners earn up to
$300 a month

161. North America car-sharing forecast
4.4 million users by 2016
Guy Dauncey 2014
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David Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan

162. Sustainable urban design for walking,
Guy Dauncey 2014
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cycling and transit

163. Guy Dauncey 2014
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164. Guy Dauncey 2014
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165. Suburban streets being calmed and reclaimed
Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

166. Suburban streets being calmed and reclaimed
Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

167. Fast, dangerous streets being slowed
Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com www.restreets.org

168. Fast, dangerous streets being slowed
Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com www.restreets.org

169. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com Interim Shift to Plug-In Hybrids

170. By 2030, 100% Electric Cars
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and Light Trucks

171. Top
Guy Dauncey 2014
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Hiroko EV

172. Top
Guy Dauncey 2014
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173. Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range
Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

174. Tesla Model X: 300-400 km range
Guy Dauncey 2014
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175. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Nissan 2014 e-NV200

176. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Nissan Leaf Electric Pick-Up
D-I-Y Conversion

177. Honda solar electric car charging
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

178. Guy Dauncey 2014
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179. No tax, saving $4,000.
Annual driving fee 7 x cheaper than a regular car.
No parking charges anywhere in Norway.
No ferry charges, no road tolls around Oslo.
Allowed to drive in the bus lanes.
Free municipal EV recharging.
Electricity $10 a week vs $55 for a regular car.
Overall savings $369 a month.
21 models to choose from.
Guy Dauncey 2014
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180. The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries
Guy Dauncey 2014
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181. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Interim: Hybrid Trucks
VIA Motors V-Trux

182. Guy Dauncey 2014
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More Hybrid Trucks
GM Silverado
GM Sierra

183. POLICY – WHAT’S NEEDED?
Current Policy:
•BC follows California low carbon fuel
standard
•Plug-In BC incentives for electric vehicles &
charging posts. Now ended.
What’s needed:
•Major incentives for electric vehicles
•New vehicles: 95 grams CO2 per kilometre by
2020; 50g/km by 2025; 0g/km by 2030
•Major investments in walking, transit, bike-lanes
Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com

184. Could
B.C.
Become
a 100%
Renewable
Energy
Region?
PART 4:
TRUCKING,
SHIPS & PLANES
Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com

185. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com Electric trucks on the market today

186. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com PACCAR Plug-In Hybrid Trucks

187. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Peterbilt Plug-In Hybrid
Garbage Truck

188. Long Distance Electric Freight
Guy Dauncey 2014
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Dutch concept electric truck
Average 18-wheeler 6.5 mpg
Super-efficient designs 9 mpg

189. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Long Distance Freight
?
2032
Electric Hydrogen Biofuel

190. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Long Distance Freight
2032
EV Trucks not ready
Biofuels questionable
Hydrogen not happening

191. With difficulty: and a long way off
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Ocean Shipping

192. With difficulty: and a long way off
Future Boeing Liquid Hydrogwewwn.ear thPfutulrae.conm e
Guy Dauncey 2014
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Guy Dauncey 2013
Flying

193. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Possible Future Freight
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

194. Could
B.C.
Become
a 100%
Renewable
Energy
Region?
PART 5:
WHAT WILL IT
TAKE?
Guy Dauncey 2014
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195. Guy Dauncey 2014
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WHAT WILL IT TAKE
TO CLIMB THE MOUNTAIN?

196. Guy Dauncey 2014
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ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
WORKING TOGETHER

197. Guy Dauncey 2014
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ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
Visionary NGO Leaders
WORKING TOGETHER

198. Guy Dauncey 2014
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ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
Visionary NGO Leaders
Visionary Municipal Leaders
WORKING TOGETHER

199. Guy Dauncey 2014
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ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
Visionary NGO Leaders
Visionary Municipal Leaders
Visionary Business Leaders
WORKING TOGETHER

200. Guy Dauncey 2014
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ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
Visionary NGO Leaders
Visionary Municipal Leaders
Visionary Business Leaders
Visionary Financial Leaders
WORKING TOGETHER

201. Guy Dauncey 2014
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ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
Visionary NGO Leaders
Visionary Municipal Leaders
Visionary Business Leaders
Visionary Financial Leaders
Visionary Academic Leaders
WORKING TOGETHER

202. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com
ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
Visionary NGO Leaders
Visionary Municipal Leaders
Visionary Business Leaders
Visionary Financial Leaders
Visionary Academic Leaders
Visionary Provincial Leaders
WORKING TOGETHER

203. Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com
ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
Visionary NGO Leaders
Visionary Municipal Leaders
Visionary Business Leaders
Visionary Financial Leaders
Visionary Academic Leaders
Visionary Provincial Leaders
Visionary Federal Leaders
WORKING TOGETHER

204. Guy Dauncey 2014
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ALL OF US
Visionary Individual Leaders
Visionary NGO Leaders
Visionary Municipal Leaders
Visionary Business Leaders
Visionary Financial Leaders
Visionary Academic Leaders
Visionary Provincial Leaders
Visionary Federal Leaders
Visionary Voters
WORKING TOGETHER

205. Guy Dauncey 2014
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206. Action Sheet Available at the BCSEA Booth
Guy Dauncey 2014
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207. THE CLIMATE CRISIS…
Guy Dauncey 2014
Earthfuture.com
Think Globally,
VOTE
LOCALLY
On November 15th, in BC’s Civic Elections
BRING IT HOME

208. Guy Dauncey 2014
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209. www.bcsea.org/SmallTownClimateSoluti
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ons

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Local Municipal Elections
November 2015

211. Richard Atwell Colin Plant Fred Haynes Shawn Newby
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Local Municipal Elections
November 2015

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Local Municipal Elections
November 2015

214. Guy Dauncey 2014
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Coming Soon

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Coming Soon

217. BEYOND CAPITALISM…
A Flourishing Green Co-operative Economy
Benefit Corporations
Green Business Certification
Public Banking
Basic Income
Values-Based Banking
Microlending
Community Currencies
An Entrepreneurial State
Green Bonds
The Sharing Economy
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Carbon Taxes
Genuine Progress Indicators
Local Business Synergy
Cooperatives
Youth Businesses & Coops
First Nations Businesses
Minority Businesses
Serious Tax Reform
Closure of Tax Havens
Targeted Growth vs no-growth

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$5
Special
Price

219. Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
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Fall
2014

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221. Together, we can change the world
If you feel inspired, join the BCSEA
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www.bcsea.org/join

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HOW SOON
Do you think it is possible?
1. By 2025
2. By 2035
3. By 2050
4. Never

223. www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
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Dream it
Wish it
Do it

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Josephine Wall
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www.josephinewall.co.uk

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231. If you want to make a difference,
now would be a great time to do so.
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232. www.earthfuture.com
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