Guy Dauncey
October 2016
CLIMATE SOLUTIONS
ClimaCon 2016, Ottawa
Canada
This is a short version of part of my larger presentation:
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey/climate-action-now-2016
www.earthfuture.com
The Paris Climate Agreement
Great
Collapse
Great
Transition
Fossil Fuels
65%
Forests 11%
Methane 16%
N2O 6%
Industrial meat
& dairy 15%
IPCC 2014Global Emissions
Canada’s Emissions
Oil & Gas
Transport
Buildings
Electricity
Industry
Agriculture
Other
Provincial Emissions, 2014
Alberta
Ontario
Quebec
Sask
BC
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
1. Strong climate leadership, vision, engagement,
education and adaptati...
Vision…
Globally – a Huge Way To Go
Vision…
CITY OF VICTORIA
just voted to go
100% RENEWABLE
Vision…
Vision…
Oslo voted to slash emissions 95% by 2030
Vision…
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
1. Strong climate leadership, vision, engagement,
education and adaptati...
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
2. Targets, policies and regulations to achieve 100%
renewable energy fo...
100% Renewable Electricity
1. Phase out all coal-fired power by 2025
2. Phase out all gas-fired power by 2030
3. Supportiv...
100% Renewable Electricity
Regulatory policies
Fiscal Incentives and
Public Financing
Farewell and Thank
You, Fossil Fuels
Welcome,
Solar Age!
Price of
Solar Module
per Watt
1977: $77
1997: $7
2013: $0.7
Renewable Electricity Supply
330 TWh/year
Needed for 100%:
an additional 420 TWh/year
Canada’s Electrical Demand
2014: 511...
100% Renewable Electricity
1. Phase out all coal-fired power by 2025
2. Phase out all gas-fired power by 2030
3. Feed-in t...
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
3. Targets, policies and regulations to achieve a
transition to sustaina...
100% Renewable Energy
Transportation
1. Active support for pedestrian cities
2. Major investment in safe, separated cyclin...
Safe Separated Bike-Lanes
All buses in Barcelona will be electric by 2020.
Self-financing over 12 years
Electric bus in Victoria, BC
Australian-Chinese Brighsun Bus
500 km on one charge with full load
Real-time electronic bus stops
Car sharing - Car2Go
118,000 members in Vancouver
Ambitious targets and incentives
for EV uptake and charging network
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
1990
25% of new sales
1990
Almost 400,000 advance orders placed for
new US $35,000 Tesla Model 3.
320 kilometres range
The falling price of EV batteries
October 2016
April 2016: Holland’s Lower House voted
to end purchase of gas/diesel cars by 2025
I M A G I N E
An Electric Vehicles
Climate Solutions Treaty
40 nations agree to
A Zero Emissions Standard
All new cars by ...
Swiss E-Force 18 tonne electric truck
300 km range
80–110 kWh per 100 km at highway speed
Future railways
electric, 100% renewable energy
Guy Dauncey 2015
www.earthfuture.com
Railway Electrification in Canada
50,000 kilometres
14,000 jobs a year over 25 years
Norway’s Electric Ferry ZeroCat
5.7 km route, 20 minute round trip
Range will increase as batteries improve
Most air pollution – gone
Long-Distance Trucking: nothing ready yet
Long-Distance Shipping : nothing ready yet
Flying: nothing ready yet
100% Renewable Energy
Transportation
1. Active support for pedestrian cities
2. Major investment in safe, separated cyclin...
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
4. Targets, policies and regulations to achieve a
transition to sustaina...
100% renewable energy buildings
1. All new buildings Passive House design by 2021
2. Major home energy retrofit program
3....
Passive Houses, Victoria
90% reduced heat loss
Passive House, Victoria, B.C.
90% less heat energy, 15 kwh/m2, 4.4% more cost
www.bernhardtpassive.com
Brussels, Belgium
Since 2015, all new buildings and retrofits are
required to be Nearly-Zero Energy,
based on the Passive ...
Stockholm, 80,000 apartments
district heat from treated sewage
Vancouver Olympic Village
District Heat from sewage pump station
Six Sources of Renewable Heat
Air-source heat Ground-source heat Stored solar heat
Biomass/Biogas Heat exchange ventilator...
100% renewable energy buildings
1. All new buildings Passive House design by 2021
2. Major home energy retrofit program
3....
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
5. Balance an annually increasing
price on carbon with the use of flexib...
FLEXIBLE
REGULATIONS
CARBON
PRICING
GREENHOUSE
GASES
FLEXIBLE
REGULATIONS
GREENHOUSE
GASES
Fewer Flex-Regs = Higher Price on Carbon
Needs $200 a tonne by 2030 to meet Paris
(I...
CARBON
PRICING
GREENHOUSE
GASES
More Flex-Regs = Lower Price on Carbon
Take your pick:
• Revenue-neutral carbon tax, balanced by tax reductions
• Revenue positive carbon tax, income to climate ...
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
5. Balance an annually increasing
price on carbon with the use of flexib...
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
6. Build a green, cooperative, entrepreneurial
economy for the 21st cent...
Mark Carney,
Governor, Bank of England
“Climate change initiatives offer a
$5-7 trillion funding opportunity
for capital m...
Almost Twice as Many
Green Jobs in Canada
By Guy Dauncey
800,000 fossil fuel jobs lost
1,000,000 green energy jobs gained
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
6. Build a green, cooperative, entrepreneurial
economy for the 21st cent...
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
7. Targets, policies and regulations
to reduce fossil fuel industry emis...
ALBERTA OIL SANDS
Plan Zero by 2040 into all NEB decisions.
Freeze production at an agreed level.
Question licenses for al...
The Scientifically Needed Solution
That’s Not Happening Yet
1. Each nation is allocated a cap, based on the
climate maths....
Fossil fuels imported
Fossil fuels extracted
An Annual Fossil Fuel Permits Auction
Each year, 25 Mt CO2 fewer permits
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Every year
5-10% CO2 reduction
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Every year
5-10% renewable energy
increase
The Scientifically Needed Solution
That’s Not Happening Yet
1. Each nation is allocated a cap, based on the
climate maths....
Carbon rationing
for individuals and businesses
Carbon rationing
for individuals and businesses
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
7. Targets, policies and regulations
to reduce fossil fuel industry emis...
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
8. Direct Action to ensure no new
fossil fuel expansion projects
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
8. Direct Action to ensure no new
fossil fuel expansion projects
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
9. Targets, policies and regulations to help Canada’s
emissions-intensiv...
INDUSTRY
Improve energy efficiency
Replace coal and gas with biomass/hydrogen
R&D for future green heat
Industrial Heat: No coal substitutes yet
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
9. Targets, policies and regulations to help Canada’s
emissions-intensiv...
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
10. Targets, policies and regulations
to help Canada’s farmers, ranchers...
End Deforestation
Globally and in Canada
1.5
Gigatonnes of carbon
a year globally
Current logging practices in BC
The livestock industry – meat & dairy –
is causing 15% of global warming
Who,
- me?
Me?
Why so big?
N2O from manure
Methane from manure
Methane from
anaerobic digestion
(burping)US Data
Each molecule of methane...
Under discussion in Denmark
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
10. Targets, policies and regulations
to help Canada’s farmers, ranchers...
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
11. Strengthen efforts to eco-sequestrate the excess
carbon out of the a...
Atmospheric carbon
1850 2016
560 Gt 807 Gt
260 ppm 400 ppm
Atmospheric carbon
807 Gt
700 GT
350 ppm
Sustainable
ForestryOrganic
Farming
New
Ranching
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
11. Strengthen efforts to eco-sequestrate the excess
carbon out of the a...
LEARN
EDUCATE
ACT
DREAM
INNOVATION
NEW
SUPPORT
POLICIES
INCENTIVES
R& D
ECO-INVESTMENT
ECONOMY
JOBS
PUBLIC, YOU & ME,
SCHO...
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
12. Work with other nations
to accelerate global progress
Denmark
Denmark
“Since Sweden accounts for less than 0.2% of
total global emissions, the country could easily
have gone unnoticed in the c...
“Sweden’s goals to reduce GHG emissions
compared with 1990 by 40% by 2020, and to
have a vehicle fleet completely rid of f...
The Twelve Most Important
Climate Action Clusters
12. Work with other nations
to accelerate global progress
The vision of a future in which we have
achieved a great transition,
avoided collapse,
and live in harmony with Nature.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com
Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey
Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey
Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey
Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey
Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey
Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey
Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey
Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey
Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey
Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey
Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey
Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey
Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey
Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey
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Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey

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My presentation to the 2016 Ottawa ClimaCon conference. A 20-minute, comprehensive narrated presentation on Canada's best climate solutions.

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Canada Climate Solutions, with narration, by Guy Dauncey

  1. 1. Guy Dauncey October 2016 CLIMATE SOLUTIONS ClimaCon 2016, Ottawa Canada
  2. 2. This is a short version of part of my larger presentation: www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey/climate-action-now-2016
  3. 3. www.earthfuture.com
  4. 4. The Paris Climate Agreement Great Collapse Great Transition
  5. 5. Fossil Fuels 65% Forests 11% Methane 16% N2O 6% Industrial meat & dairy 15% IPCC 2014Global Emissions
  6. 6. Canada’s Emissions Oil & Gas Transport Buildings Electricity Industry Agriculture Other
  7. 7. Provincial Emissions, 2014 Alberta Ontario Quebec Sask BC
  8. 8. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 1. Strong climate leadership, vision, engagement, education and adaptation
  9. 9. Vision…
  10. 10. Globally – a Huge Way To Go
  11. 11. Vision…
  12. 12. CITY OF VICTORIA just voted to go 100% RENEWABLE Vision…
  13. 13. Vision…
  14. 14. Oslo voted to slash emissions 95% by 2030 Vision…
  15. 15. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 1. Strong climate leadership, vision, engagement, education and adaptation Individual NGO Municipal Business College Organization Province Canada Who can act on this solution?
  16. 16. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 2. Targets, policies and regulations to achieve 100% renewable energy for electricity
  17. 17. 100% Renewable Electricity 1. Phase out all coal-fired power by 2025 2. Phase out all gas-fired power by 2030 3. Supportive policies for solar, wind & renewables 4. Policy & finance supports for geothermal power 5. R & D investment in grid, DSM, energy storage
  18. 18. 100% Renewable Electricity Regulatory policies Fiscal Incentives and Public Financing
  19. 19. Farewell and Thank You, Fossil Fuels Welcome, Solar Age!
  20. 20. Price of Solar Module per Watt 1977: $77 1997: $7 2013: $0.7
  21. 21. Renewable Electricity Supply 330 TWh/year Needed for 100%: an additional 420 TWh/year Canada’s Electrical Demand 2014: 511 TWh 2040: 750 TWh Assumes transition to 100% renewables by 2040
  22. 22. 100% Renewable Electricity 1. Phase out all coal-fired power by 2025 2. Phase out all gas-fired power by 2030 3. Feed-in tariffs for solar, wind & renewables 4. Policy & finance supports for geothermal power 5. R & D investment in energy storage
  23. 23. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 3. Targets, policies and regulations to achieve a transition to sustainable transportation
  24. 24. 100% Renewable Energy Transportation 1. Active support for pedestrian cities 2. Major investment in safe, separated cycling 3. Major investment in transit, LRT 4. Zero emissions for all cars/light trucks by 2025/30 5. Solar electrification of railways 6. R&D Investment in trucking, shipping, flying
  25. 25. Safe Separated Bike-Lanes
  26. 26. All buses in Barcelona will be electric by 2020. Self-financing over 12 years
  27. 27. Electric bus in Victoria, BC
  28. 28. Australian-Chinese Brighsun Bus 500 km on one charge with full load
  29. 29. Real-time electronic bus stops
  30. 30. Car sharing - Car2Go 118,000 members in Vancouver
  31. 31. Ambitious targets and incentives for EV uptake and charging network
  32. 32. 1990
  33. 33. 1990
  34. 34. 1990
  35. 35. 1990
  36. 36. 1990
  37. 37. 1990
  38. 38. 1990
  39. 39. 1990 25% of new sales
  40. 40. 1990
  41. 41. Almost 400,000 advance orders placed for new US $35,000 Tesla Model 3. 320 kilometres range
  42. 42. The falling price of EV batteries
  43. 43. October 2016
  44. 44. April 2016: Holland’s Lower House voted to end purchase of gas/diesel cars by 2025
  45. 45. I M A G I N E An Electric Vehicles Climate Solutions Treaty 40 nations agree to A Zero Emissions Standard All new cars by 2030 All light trucks by 2032
  46. 46. Swiss E-Force 18 tonne electric truck 300 km range 80–110 kWh per 100 km at highway speed
  47. 47. Future railways electric, 100% renewable energy
  48. 48. Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Railway Electrification in Canada 50,000 kilometres 14,000 jobs a year over 25 years
  49. 49. Norway’s Electric Ferry ZeroCat 5.7 km route, 20 minute round trip Range will increase as batteries improve
  50. 50. Most air pollution – gone
  51. 51. Long-Distance Trucking: nothing ready yet
  52. 52. Long-Distance Shipping : nothing ready yet
  53. 53. Flying: nothing ready yet
  54. 54. 100% Renewable Energy Transportation 1. Active support for pedestrian cities 2. Major investment in safe, separated cycling 3. Major investment in transit, LRT 4. Zero emissions for all cars/light trucks by 2025/30 5. Solar electrification of railways 6. R&D Investment in trucking, shipping, flying
  55. 55. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 4. Targets, policies and regulations to achieve a transition to sustainable buildings
  56. 56. 100% renewable energy buildings 1. All new buildings Passive House design by 2021 2. Major home energy retrofit program 3. Condos energy retrofit program 4. Commercial & Industrial energy retrofit programs 5. Urban Centres District Heat programs
  57. 57. Passive Houses, Victoria 90% reduced heat loss
  58. 58. Passive House, Victoria, B.C. 90% less heat energy, 15 kwh/m2, 4.4% more cost www.bernhardtpassive.com
  59. 59. Brussels, Belgium Since 2015, all new buildings and retrofits are required to be Nearly-Zero Energy, based on the Passive House Standard.
  60. 60. Stockholm, 80,000 apartments district heat from treated sewage
  61. 61. Vancouver Olympic Village District Heat from sewage pump station
  62. 62. Six Sources of Renewable Heat Air-source heat Ground-source heat Stored solar heat Biomass/Biogas Heat exchange ventilator Dog-source heat
  63. 63. 100% renewable energy buildings 1. All new buildings Passive House design by 2021 2. Major home energy retrofit program 3. Condos energy retrofit program 4. Commercial & Industrial energy retrofit programs 5. Urban Centres District Heat programs
  64. 64. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 5. Balance an annually increasing price on carbon with the use of flexible regulations
  65. 65. FLEXIBLE REGULATIONS CARBON PRICING GREENHOUSE GASES
  66. 66. FLEXIBLE REGULATIONS GREENHOUSE GASES Fewer Flex-Regs = Higher Price on Carbon Needs $200 a tonne by 2030 to meet Paris (Is Win-Win Possible? Mark Jaccard et al, 2016)
  67. 67. CARBON PRICING GREENHOUSE GASES More Flex-Regs = Lower Price on Carbon
  68. 68. Take your pick: • Revenue-neutral carbon tax, balanced by tax reductions • Revenue positive carbon tax, income to climate solutions • Carbon fee and dividend, everyone gets annual cheque • Carbon cap-and-trade, caps for industry, trading for carbon allowances
  69. 69. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 5. Balance an annually increasing price on carbon with the use of flexible regulations
  70. 70. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 6. Build a green, cooperative, entrepreneurial economy for the 21st century
  71. 71. Mark Carney, Governor, Bank of England “Climate change initiatives offer a $5-7 trillion funding opportunity for capital markets.”
  72. 72. Almost Twice as Many Green Jobs in Canada By Guy Dauncey 800,000 fossil fuel jobs lost 1,000,000 green energy jobs gained
  73. 73. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 6. Build a green, cooperative, entrepreneurial economy for the 21st century
  74. 74. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 7. Targets, policies and regulations to reduce fossil fuel industry emissions
  75. 75. ALBERTA OIL SANDS Plan Zero by 2040 into all NEB decisions. Freeze production at an agreed level. Question licenses for all new pipelines. Close down the last oil sands operation by 2040. Firm up requirements for boreal forest restoration.
  76. 76. The Scientifically Needed Solution That’s Not Happening Yet 1. Each nation is allocated a cap, based on the climate maths. 2. Every producer or importer of fossil fuels bids for a permit in an annual national auction. A Global Carbon Cap
  77. 77. Fossil fuels imported Fossil fuels extracted An Annual Fossil Fuel Permits Auction Each year, 25 Mt CO2 fewer permits
  78. 78. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Every year 5-10% CO2 reduction
  79. 79. 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Every year 5-10% renewable energy increase
  80. 80. The Scientifically Needed Solution That’s Not Happening Yet 1. Each nation is allocated a cap, based on the climate maths. 2. Every producer or importer of fossil fuels bids for a permit in an annual national auction. A Global Carbon Cap
  81. 81. Carbon rationing for individuals and businesses
  82. 82. Carbon rationing for individuals and businesses
  83. 83. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 7. Targets, policies and regulations to reduce fossil fuel industry emissions
  84. 84. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 8. Direct Action to ensure no new fossil fuel expansion projects
  85. 85. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 8. Direct Action to ensure no new fossil fuel expansion projects
  86. 86. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 9. Targets, policies and regulations to help Canada’s emissions-intensive industries reduce their emissions and shift to 100% renewable energy
  87. 87. INDUSTRY Improve energy efficiency Replace coal and gas with biomass/hydrogen R&D for future green heat
  88. 88. Industrial Heat: No coal substitutes yet
  89. 89. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 9. Targets, policies and regulations to help Canada’s emissions-intensive industries reduce their emissions and shift to 100% renewable energy
  90. 90. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 10. Targets, policies and regulations to help Canada’s farmers, ranchers and foresters reduce their emissions
  91. 91. End Deforestation Globally and in Canada 1.5 Gigatonnes of carbon a year globally
  92. 92. Current logging practices in BC
  93. 93. The livestock industry – meat & dairy – is causing 15% of global warming
  94. 94. Who, - me?
  95. 95. Me?
  96. 96. Why so big? N2O from manure Methane from manure Methane from anaerobic digestion (burping)US Data Each molecule of methane traps 34 x more heat than CO2 over 100 years; 84 x more over 20 years.
  97. 97. Under discussion in Denmark
  98. 98. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 10. Targets, policies and regulations to help Canada’s farmers, ranchers and foresters reduce their emissions
  99. 99. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 11. Strengthen efforts to eco-sequestrate the excess carbon out of the atmosphere
  100. 100. Atmospheric carbon 1850 2016 560 Gt 807 Gt 260 ppm 400 ppm
  101. 101. Atmospheric carbon 807 Gt 700 GT 350 ppm
  102. 102. Sustainable ForestryOrganic Farming New Ranching
  103. 103. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 11. Strengthen efforts to eco-sequestrate the excess carbon out of the atmosphere
  104. 104. LEARN EDUCATE ACT DREAM INNOVATION NEW SUPPORT POLICIES INCENTIVES R& D ECO-INVESTMENT ECONOMY JOBS PUBLIC, YOU & ME, SCHOOLS, NGOs GOVERNMENTS BUSINESS GREENHOUSE GASES CARBON PRICING FLEXIBLE REGULATIONS Climate Action - Putting it all together
  105. 105. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 12. Work with other nations to accelerate global progress
  106. 106. Denmark
  107. 107. Denmark
  108. 108. “Since Sweden accounts for less than 0.2% of total global emissions, the country could easily have gone unnoticed in the climate debate. Instead, Sweden has chosen to do more than many other countries on issues regarding energy and the climate.”
  109. 109. “Sweden’s goals to reduce GHG emissions compared with 1990 by 40% by 2020, and to have a vehicle fleet completely rid of fossil fuels by 2030, are stepping stones to the overarching goal of a society with no net GHG emissions by 2050.”
  110. 110. The Twelve Most Important Climate Action Clusters 12. Work with other nations to accelerate global progress
  111. 111. The vision of a future in which we have achieved a great transition, avoided collapse, and live in harmony with Nature.
  112. 112. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com

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