1.
CITY OF THE FUTURE
The View from 2032
Guy Dauncey, Living Future Symposium
Victoria, November 2013

2.
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6.
Guy Dauncey 2007
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7.
We’ve come a long way from this….
Guy Dauncey 2013
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8.
To this …
Guy Dauncey 2013
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9.
but…
Guy Dauncey 2013
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10.
We’ve also come to this…
Guy Dauncey 2013
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©Smithore Dreamstime.com

11.
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12.
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13.
If everyone lived the way we do,
we'd need another two Earths
Guy Dauncey 2013
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14.
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
100 million tonnes a day
= 4 million tonnes an hour
= 67,000 tonnes a minute
As we burn the fossil fuels…
= 1,000 tonnes a second
Guy Dauncey 2013
2007
www.earthfuture.com

15.
Monday
Guy Dauncey 2013
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16.
OMG!
Daddy, you’re
going to die!!!!
Monday
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17.
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18.
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23.
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24.
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25.
25 metres
18 metres
The last time the
global temperature
was 3°C warmer,
the sea-level was
25 metres higher.
10 metres
2 metres
Guy Dauncey 2013
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26.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Global CO2 in 1750 (biogenic)

27.
CO2 emissions since1750 (anthropogenic)
Guy Dauncey 2013
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28.
Maximum extra CO2 to stay below 2°C of warming
Guy Dauncey 2013
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29.
Potential CO2 in declared fossil fuel reserves
Guy Dauncey 2013
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30.
All of this must remain in the ground
Guy Dauncey 2013
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31.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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32.
"Dreams are extremely important.
You can't do it unless you can imagine it.”
- George Lucas
Guy Dauncey 2013
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33.
"Create your future from your future,
not your past.”
- Werner Erhard
Guy Dauncey 2013
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34.
"Pain pushes until vision pulls."
- Michael Beckwith
Guy Dauncey 2013
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35.
So what is our vision of
a beautiful, desirable future?
Guy Dauncey 2013
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36.
Guy Dauncey 2007
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37.
Ten Themes
Guy Dauncey 2013
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1: The Return of Nature

38.
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39.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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40.
Habitat for Urban Wildlife
Ifat Finkelman Ofer Bilik Architects, Israel

41.
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42.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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43.
Animal Wall, Cardiff Bay, Wales
Guy Dauncey 2013
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44.
London Fiel
Duncan Terrace GardensIslington,
Guy Dauncey 2013
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45.
Back to Nature
Guy Dauncey 2013
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46.
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47.
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48.
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49.
Turning THIS…
Brooklyn Public School 216 Arturo Toscanini,
New York
Guy Dauncey 2011
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50.
into THIS.
Guy Dauncey 2011
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51.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Hundertwasserhaus, Vienna

52.
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53.
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54.
Musee du Quai Branly, Paris
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Patrick Blanc, Le Mur Vegetal

55.
Patrick Blanc
Madrid’s vertical
garden is made up of
more than 15,000
plants, from 250
different species.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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56.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Athenaeum Hotel, London Patrick Blanc

57.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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ACROS building, Fukuoka, Japan
35,000 plants, 76 species

58.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Flower Tower, Paris, 2004
www.edouardfrancois.com

59.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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60.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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United Bank of Switzerland
Basel

61.
Singapore,
Editt Tower
(proposed)
Guy Dauncey 2013
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62.
Singapore,
Editt Tower
Guy Dauncey 2013
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63.
The Gherkin, London
Guy Dauncey 2013
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64.
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65.
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66.
Before…
Semiahmoo Transit Station
Surrey, BC, Canada
Guy Dauncey 2013
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67.
After…
Guy Dauncey 2013
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www.greenovergrey.com

68.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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69.
Vincent Callebaut
Guy Dauncey 2013
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70.
Vincent Callebaut: Asian Cairns, Sustainable Megaliths for
Guy Dauncey 2013
Guy Dauncey 2007
Rural Urbanity, Shenzhen, China, 2013
www.earthfuture.c
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71.
Is this your dream home of the future?
Guy Dauncey 2013
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72.
Or this?
Guy Dauncey 2013
Guy Dauncey 2007
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73.
Or this?
Guy Dauncey 2013
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74.
Ten Themes
2: Green, Sustainable Energy
Guy Dauncey 2013
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75.
By 2016, every new home in Britain
must be zero-carbon.
www.zerocarbonhub.org
Guy Dauncey 2013
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76.
Zero Net Energy Housing
By 2020, every new home in California must be
zero net energy - emit no carbon
and give power back to the grid.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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77.
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
Guy Dauncey 2013
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78.
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

79.
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all
permitted improvement projects above $20,000
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

80.
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all
permitted improvement projects above $20,000
2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

81.
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all
permitted improvement projects above $20,000
2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

82.
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all
permitted improvement projects above $20,000
2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades
4. Sustainability Checklists for Developers
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

83.
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all
permitted improvement projects above $20,000
2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades
4. Sustainability Checklists for Developers
5. Green building grants, education and technical services
Guy Dauncey 2013
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84.
www.architecture2030.org
Guy Dauncey 2013
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85.
Empire State Building
Sustainability
Retrofit
38%
reduced energy use
Guy Dauncey 2013
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86.
The Passive House
Winter: -10 oC outside, no heat needed inside
Summer: 35 oC outside, only 26 oC inside
Guy Dauncey 2013
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87.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com

88.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Construction costs:
4.3% more per square foot

89.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Monthly net energy savings
more than the increased mortgage

90.
LED Lighting
Guy Dauncey 2013
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91.
LED Chandeliers
Guy Dauncey 2013
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92.
Greenwatt Way, Slough, UK
Guy Dauncey 2013
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63 kW solar PV, 30 kW Biomass boiler
40 kW air source heat pump
2 x 17 kW Ground source heat pumps
Energy Centre roof 20 m2 solar thermal panels

93.
BedZED
Sutton, London, UK
Super-efficient,
smart metered
CHP power and hot water
from local tree wastes
Space heat: 88% less
Hot water: 57% less
Electricity: 25% less
Guy Dauncey 2013
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94.
Energy
 Centre
Beddington Zero Energy Housing (BedZED),
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Sutton, London, UK

95.
Renewable Energy Heat Pumps
Solar-Source
Moisture-Source
Ground-Source
Water-Source
Sewer-Source
Ice-Source
Guy Dauncey 2013
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96.
Solar (air source) Heat Pump
Guy Dauncey 2013
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97.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Ductless Mini-Split Solar Heat Pump

98.
Solar Air Moisture Heat Pump
Guy Dauncey 2013
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The Octopus Ice-Stick
www.octopus.tm

99.
50-75% reduced heating costs
Air moisture heat pump
50 years life span
Operates down to -25oC
Guy Dauncey 2013
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100.
Since 1991, in Sweden, Norway, Denmark,
Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland,
Germany, Holland, Italy, Romania, Ireland.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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101.
Cruxifix
Ice-Stick
Heat Pump
Guy Dauncey 2013
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102.
Ground-Source Solar Heat
Guy Dauncey 2013
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103.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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104.
Geothermal Radial Drilling, Austria
Guy Dauncey 2013
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http://geothermic.tracto-technik.com

105.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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106.
Water-Source Solar Heat
Guy Dauncey 2013
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107.
Ice-Source Heat
Richmond Olympic Skating Oval
Guy Dauncey 2013
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108.
Solar Hot Water
on a restaurant in
Sweden
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan

109.
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Rizhao, China

110.
www.solarbc.ca
Guy Dauncey 2013
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A project of the BCSEA

111.
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112.
Solar Thermal District Heat
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Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta.

113.
800
solar hot water
panels
on the garages
90% of residential space
heating needs met by solar
thermal energy (40-50o C)
Reduction - 5 tonnes of
greenhouse gas emissions
per home per year.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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114.
Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year
The Energy Centre
Solar hot water
panels
Guy Dauncey 2013
2007
www.earthfuture.com
Community solar
heat panels

115.
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116.
Sorce: Solvis
Solar Thermal Housing, Rostock, Germany
Guy Dauncey 2013
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117.
In Sweden, Stockholm sends heat
from treated sewage effluent to 80,000 apartments
Guy Dauncey 2013
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118.
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119.
Pre-insulated pipe used
to heat most homes and
commercial buildings in
Scandinavia.
Insulation allows delivery
of hot water at 200o C up
to 24 km, with only a few
degrees loss of heat.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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120.
Solar PV
Rolf Disch Solar Architecture
Guy Dauncey 2013
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121.
Guy Dauncey 2013
Guy Dauncey 2007
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122.
Taiwan Solar Stadium, 2013
Guy Dauncey 2007
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123.
Data from Stephen O'Rourke, senior analyst for semiconductor equipment and materials,
Deutsche Bank Securities, via www.energyandcapital.com, February 2008
Guy Dauncey 2013
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124.
Solar PV
7000% increase
since 2000
100,000
GW in
2012
Guy Dauncey 2013
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125.
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126.
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127.
3 kW PV System
$15,000 in Victoria
$12,000 if bulk 30 houses
$9,000 at IKEA, UK
3,300 kWh year
Guy Dauncey 2013
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128.
Solar Economics in Victoria, BC
(No Feed-in Tariff)
3 kW, 3% financing, 3% pa BC Hydro inflation
2013
Cost per kW
$5,000
Cost of 3 kW system $15,000
$25 yr 3% mortgage $21,300
2020
$3,000
$9,000
$12,780
kWh per year
25 years + 3% pa
3,300 kWh
$12,009
3,300 kWh
$14,768
Profit (Loss)
(-$9,291)
$1,988
Guy Dauncey 2013
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129.
The Human Journey
5,000,000
years past
5,000,000
years future
This tiny slither of time is
the Age of Fossil FuelsGuy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c

130.
If we act as we should, we will make the
200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for
a billion Solar Years
Firewood Solar
500,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2013
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131.
If we act as we should, we will make the
200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for
a billion Solar Years
Firewood Solar
500,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Fossil Solar
200 years

132.
If we act as we should, we will make the
200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for
a billion Solar Years
Renewable Solar
1.75 billion years
Firewood Solar
500,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Fossil Solar
200 years

133.
Ten Themes
3: Sustainable Watersheds
Guy Dauncey 2013
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134.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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135.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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136.
Restoring urban creeks and streams
Guy Dauncey 2013
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137.
Still Creek, Vancouver.
Chum Salmon restored after 80 years
Guy Dauncey 2013
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138.
Home Water Conservation:
Dual Flush Toilets
Guy Dauncey 2013
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139.
Composting Toilets
Guy Dauncey 2013
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140.
Rainwater
Storage
Guy Dauncey 2013
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141.
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142.
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143.
Bioswale to capture rainwater
SEA Street, Seattle
Guy Dauncey 2013
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144.
SEA Street, Seattle
Guy Dauncey 2013
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145.
Water Conservation Credits in 2032
1. Builder seeks building permit for new house
2. Water conserving actions in existing houses
earn conservation credits
3. Water conserving companies retrofit existing
houses, collect credits.
4. Builder buys credits to qualify for building
permit
5. Net increase in water-use = ZERO
Guy Dauncey 2013
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146.
Ten Themes
Guy Dauncey 2013
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4: Reclaimed Streets

147.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Re-imagine
Re-design
Re-claim

148.
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149.
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150.
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151.
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152.
‘What a Thrill’ Street, San Antonio, Texas
Guy Dauncey 2013
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153.
In 2012, San Antonio’s City Center Development Office
contracted Team Better Block of Dallas with the Project for
Public Spaces in New York City to develop a site plan that
narrowed a segment of West Commerce Street from 4 lanes
to 3 to create a more inviting pedestrian experience.
Guy Dauncey 2013
Just for one day…
www.earthfuture.com

154.
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155.
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156.
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157.
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158.
Team Better Block
San Antonio, Texas
www.betterblock.org
Guy Dauncey 2013
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159.
Proyecto Urbano Integral, Medellin, Colombia
Guy Dauncey 2013
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160.
Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea
Before and After
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161.
Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea
Guy Dauncey 2013
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162.
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163.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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The Highline
Converted Railway,
New York

164.
Proposed Drexel City Campus, New York,
with the Highline running through it
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

165.
Brooklyn Bridge Remix/Redux
Terreform and Michael Sorkin Studio
Guy Dauncey 2007
www.earthfuture.com

166.
London: a Garden Bridge across the Thames
Thomas Heatherwick
Guy Dauncey 2013
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167.
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168.
Rua Gonçalo de Carvalho, Porto Allegro, Brazil
Guy Dauncey 2013
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169.
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170.
Berge de Seine, Paris
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171.
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172.
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173.
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174.
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175.
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176.
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177.
Place de la Republique, Paris, 1850s

178.
Place de la Republique, 2006

179.
stephanekirkland.com
Place de la Republique, 2013

180.
Ten Themes
5: Thriving Neighborhoods
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181.
Portland, Oregon
Guy Dauncey 2013
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www.CityRepair.org

182.
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183.
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184.
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185.
EarthSong Eco-Neigbourhood, Auckland, New Zealand
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

186.
Pioneer Valley Cohousing, Massachusetts
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

187.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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188.
Jamestown Mall, St. Louis County, Missouri
Guy Dauncey 2013
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189.
Possible Future: Jamestown Mall,
Guy Dauncey 2013
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190.
Namba Parks
Osaka, Japan
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

191.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Hundertwasser's Waldspirale, Darmstadt, Germany

192.
Ten Themes
6: Healthy Urban Organic Food
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

193.
www.talkgreentous.ca
Guy Dauncey 2013
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194.
Moss Street Market, Victoria
Guy Dauncey 2013
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195.
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196.
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197.
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198.
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199.
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200.
Guy Dauncey 2007
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Fulham Palace Allotment Gardens, London

201.
Guy Dauncey 2007
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202.
Guy Dauncey 2007
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203.
Guy Dauncey 2007
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204.
Guy Dauncey 2007
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205.
Valencia, Spain
Guy Dauncey 2007
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206.
Guy Dauncey 2013
Guy Dauncey 2007
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207.
Ten Themes
7: Sustainable Transportation
without Fossil Fuels
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com

208.
Walking

209.
Graben Street, Vienna

210.
Times Square, New York

211.
Toronto Walking School Bus

212.
Neighbourhood Walkability Audit
www.walklive.org

213.
Cycling
Amsterdam

214.
Amsterdam

215.
Vancouver

216.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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217.
Bike Path in Cambridge, UK
Starpath is a sprayable coating of light-absorbing
particles that harvests UV rays from the sun during
the day and lights up like a starry sky at night.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
www.pro-teqsurfacing.com

218.
City Bike Sharing, Washington DC

219.
Electric Bicycles
Guy Dauncey 2013
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220.
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221.
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222.
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223.
School at Assen, Holland

224.
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225.
Transit

226.
In Stockholm, 200 buses run on biogas
from sewage treatment (Stephen Salter)

227.
Umea, Sweden
Fast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day
1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electricity to go 10 km
www.opbrid.com

228.
OLEV
On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

229.
Japan’s Future Electric Bus
Guy Dauncey 2013
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230.
Real-time electronic timetable

231.
Bus shelter in Taiwan

232.
LRT in Portland, Oregon

233.
LRT in Mulhouse, France

234.
Proyecto Urbano
Integral,
Medellin, Colombia
Guy Dauncey 2013
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235.
Real-time Ride-sharing
www.car.ma

236.
Car Sharing
Victoria Carshare Coop
650 members share 23 vehicles
See
www.victoriacarshare.ca

237.
Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing
Vehicles owners earn
up to $300 a month

238.
Chevy Volt
2,500 km on one tank of gas
Guy Dauncey 2013
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239.
Volkswagen XL1 (1-litre) 2012
Diesel plug-in hybrid
75 km battery range
0.9 litres/100 km
312 mpg

240.
Renault Twizy EV
2 seats, 100 km range,
3.5 hours recharge
$9,700 + $60/month battery lease

241.
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242.
Smart Electric – 135 km range
Guy Dauncey 2013
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243.
Tesla EV Model-X
7 seats
350 kilometers range

244.
Honda solar electric car charging
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245.
PV for EV
1.5 kW solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year
= 10,000 km

246.
PV for EV
1.5 kW PV = $7,500
25 year PV loan 3.5% = $37/month
Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month

247.
Electric car fast charging
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248.
www.cargohopper.com
Cargohopper
3 tonnes max
60 km range
20 kph top speed
Urban deliveries
Holland

249.
EVs + Bikes = less urban noise
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250.
No fossil fuel pollution = clear skies
Guy Dauncey 2013
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251.
Ten Themes
Guy Dauncey 2013
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8: A Strong Green
Local Economy

252.
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253.
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254.
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255.
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256.
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257.
Community
Economic
Education
Affordable
Housing
Initiatives
1 Benefit Corporations
1
8
8
The
Community
Economy
in 2032
7
7
Community
Welfare
Basic
Income
2
2
Green Business
Certification
3
3
Village
Business
Networks
4 Coop Network
4
6
6
5
5
Values-Based Banking

258.
1
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Benefit Corporations

259.
2
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Green Business
Certification

260.
3
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Village Business
Networks

261.
4
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Cooperatives
Network

262.
5
Values-Based
Banking
Interest-free banking
Debt Circles
Community currencies
Microfinance
Local business lending
Credit Unions
Bank of BC
Guy Dauncey 2013
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263.
6
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Community Welfare
and
Basic Income

264.
7
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Affordable
Housing
Initiatives

265.
7
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Affordable
Housing
Initiatives

266.
7
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Affordable
Housing
Initiatives
LoftCube

267.
7
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Affordable
Housing
Initiatives

268.
8
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Community
Economic
Education

269.
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270.
Ten Themes
9: A Thriving Artistic Culture
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271.
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272.
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273.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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274.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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275.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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276.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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277.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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278.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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279.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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280.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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281.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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282.
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283.
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284.
THE ELECTRONIC SIDEWALK
YOUR POEM HERE

285.
wake up your senses
walk with a dog in the rain
then roll on the rug
Kim Pearson

286.
A violin plays
as the common space becomes
a place of beauty.
Jenny Gerbasi

287.
Ten Themes
Guy Dauncey 2013
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10: A Strong Participatory
Democracy

288.
Community engagement

289.
Engaging Young People
www.leadingchangenetwork.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
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290.
Electronic ballots
Voting aged reduced to 16
Transferable Voting for City Hall
$100 tax credit for voting (revenue neutral)
Guy Dauncey 2013
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291.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Design the Future
Community Meetings

292.
The Happy, Resilient City
More walking, biking, bus, carsharing
Lower transport costs
More urban food gardens
Cheaper and healthier eating
Innovative affordable housing
Lower housing costs
Stronger neighbourhoods
More friends, more real community
More urban greenery
More inner space, and peace
Stronger community economy
More financial security
Green, energy-efficient homes
Lower energy costs
No more fossil fuels
Clean air, clear sky, quiet city
More civic engagement
Healthier political realm
Basic Income
Less poverty, fear and homelessness
More arts, music and neighbourhood
celebration
More friends, more happiness,
more love
Guy Dauncey 2013
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293.
BUT…
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294.
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295.
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296.
To reduce the risk
of this …
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297.
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298.
We must do this …
Guy Dauncey 2013
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299.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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300.
To reduce the risk
of this …
Guy Dauncey 2013
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301.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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302.
We must do this …
Guy Dauncey 2013
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303.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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304.
To reduce the risk
of this …
Guy Dauncey 2013
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305.
We must do this …
Guy Dauncey 2013
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306.
A Green, Sustainable Future
is not an Option
It is an Absolute Necessity
in which we must all
become engaged
Guy Dauncey 2013
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307.
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308.
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309.
Guy Dauncey
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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