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A look ahead to the year 2032 in a green, sustainable world. Presentation to the Living Future Symposium, Victoria BC. Nov 9th, 2013, organized by the Cascadia Vancouver Island Branch and UVic Office of Campus Planning and Sustainability.
This is not the presentation based on my forthcoming book; but it is very influenced by it.
A look ahead to the year 2032 in a green, sustainable world. Presentation to the Living Future Symposium, Victoria BC. Nov 9th, 2013, organized by the Cascadia Vancouver Island Branch and UVic Office of Campus Planning and Sustainability.
This is not the presentation based on my forthcoming book; but it is very influenced by it.
13.
If everyone lived the way we do,
we'd need another two Earths
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
14.
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
100 million tonnes a day
= 4 million tonnes an hour
= 67,000 tonnes a minute
As we burn the fossil fuels…
= 1,000 tonnes a second
Guy Dauncey 2013
2007
www.earthfuture.com
25.
25 metres
18 metres
The last time the
global temperature
was 3°C warmer,
the sea-level was
25 metres higher.
10 metres
2 metres
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
26.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Global CO2 in 1750 (biogenic)
27.
CO2 emissions since1750 (anthropogenic)
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
28.
Maximum extra CO2 to stay below 2°C of warming
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
29.
Potential CO2 in declared fossil fuel reserves
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
30.
All of this must remain in the ground
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
69.
Vincent Callebaut
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
70.
Vincent Callebaut: Asian Cairns, Sustainable Megaliths for
Guy Dauncey 2013
Guy Dauncey 2007
Rural Urbanity, Shenzhen, China, 2013
www.earthfuture.c
www.earthfuture.com
71.
Is this your dream home of the future?
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
72.
Or this?
Guy Dauncey 2013
Guy Dauncey 2007
www.earthfuture.c
www.earthfuture.com
74.
Ten Themes
2: Green, Sustainable Energy
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
75.
By 2016, every new home in Britain
must be zero-carbon.
www.zerocarbonhub.org
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
76.
Zero Net Energy Housing
By 2020, every new home in California must be
zero net energy - emit no carbon
and give power back to the grid.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
77.
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
78.
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
79.
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all
permitted improvement projects above $20,000
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
80.
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all
permitted improvement projects above $20,000
2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
81.
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all
permitted improvement projects above $20,000
2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
82.
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all
permitted improvement projects above $20,000
2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades
4. Sustainability Checklists for Developers
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
83.
The Best Green Building Policies
1. Strong Climate Action legislation
2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to
be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging,
energy-labeled
1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all
permitted improvement projects above $20,000
2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and
report energy use annually (San Francisco)
3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades
4. Sustainability Checklists for Developers
5. Green building grants, education and technical services
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
84.
www.architecture2030.org
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
85.
Empire State Building
Sustainability
Retrofit
38%
reduced energy use
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
86.
The Passive House
Winter: -10 oC outside, no heat needed inside
Summer: 35 oC outside, only 26 oC inside
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
87.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com
88.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Construction costs:
4.3% more per square foot
89.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Monthly net energy savings
more than the increased mortgage
90.
LED Lighting
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
91.
LED Chandeliers
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
92.
Greenwatt Way, Slough, UK
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
63 kW solar PV, 30 kW Biomass boiler
40 kW air source heat pump
2 x 17 kW Ground source heat pumps
Energy Centre roof 20 m2 solar thermal panels
93.
BedZED
Sutton, London, UK
Super-efficient,
smart metered
CHP power and hot water
from local tree wastes
Space heat: 88% less
Hot water: 57% less
Electricity: 25% less
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
94.
Energy
Centre
Beddington Zero Energy Housing (BedZED),
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Sutton, London, UK
95.
Renewable Energy Heat Pumps
Solar-Source
Moisture-Source
Ground-Source
Water-Source
Sewer-Source
Ice-Source
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
96.
Solar (air source) Heat Pump
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
97.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Ductless Mini-Split Solar Heat Pump
98.
Solar Air Moisture Heat Pump
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
The Octopus Ice-Stick
www.octopus.tm
99.
50-75% reduced heating costs
Air moisture heat pump
50 years life span
Operates down to -25oC
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
100.
Since 1991, in Sweden, Norway, Denmark,
Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland,
Germany, Holland, Italy, Romania, Ireland.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
101.
Cruxifix
Ice-Stick
Heat Pump
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
102.
Ground-Source Solar Heat
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
112.
Solar Thermal District Heat
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta.
113.
800
solar hot water
panels
on the garages
90% of residential space
heating needs met by solar
thermal energy (40-50o C)
Reduction - 5 tonnes of
greenhouse gas emissions
per home per year.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
114.
Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year
The Energy Centre
Solar hot water
panels
Guy Dauncey 2013
2007
www.earthfuture.com
Community solar
heat panels
119.
Pre-insulated pipe used
to heat most homes and
commercial buildings in
Scandinavia.
Insulation allows delivery
of hot water at 200o C up
to 24 km, with only a few
degrees loss of heat.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
120.
Solar PV
Rolf Disch Solar Architecture
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
121.
Guy Dauncey 2013
Guy Dauncey 2007
www.earthfuture.c
www.earthfuture.com
122.
Taiwan Solar Stadium, 2013
Guy Dauncey 2007
www.earthfuture.com
123.
Data from Stephen O'Rourke, senior analyst for semiconductor equipment and materials,
Deutsche Bank Securities, via www.energyandcapital.com, February 2008
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
124.
Solar PV
7000% increase
since 2000
100,000
GW in
2012
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
127.
3 kW PV System
$15,000 in Victoria
$12,000 if bulk 30 houses
$9,000 at IKEA, UK
3,300 kWh year
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
128.
Solar Economics in Victoria, BC
(No Feed-in Tariff)
3 kW, 3% financing, 3% pa BC Hydro inflation
2013
Cost per kW
$5,000
Cost of 3 kW system $15,000
$25 yr 3% mortgage $21,300
2020
$3,000
$9,000
$12,780
kWh per year
25 years + 3% pa
3,300 kWh
$12,009
3,300 kWh
$14,768
Profit (Loss)
(-$9,291)
$1,988
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
129.
The Human Journey
5,000,000
years past
5,000,000
years future
This tiny slither of time is
the Age of Fossil FuelsGuy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.c
130.
If we act as we should, we will make the
200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for
a billion Solar Years
Firewood Solar
500,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
131.
If we act as we should, we will make the
200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for
a billion Solar Years
Firewood Solar
500,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Fossil Solar
200 years
132.
If we act as we should, we will make the
200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for
a billion Solar Years
Renewable Solar
1.75 billion years
Firewood Solar
500,000 years
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Fossil Solar
200 years
133.
Ten Themes
3: Sustainable Watersheds
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
143.
Bioswale to capture rainwater
SEA Street, Seattle
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
144.
SEA Street, Seattle
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
145.
Water Conservation Credits in 2032
1. Builder seeks building permit for new house
2. Water conserving actions in existing houses
earn conservation credits
3. Water conserving companies retrofit existing
houses, collect credits.
4. Builder buys credits to qualify for building
permit
5. Net increase in water-use = ZERO
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
146.
Ten Themes
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
4: Reclaimed Streets
147.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Re-imagine
Re-design
Re-claim
152.
‘What a Thrill’ Street, San Antonio, Texas
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
153.
In 2012, San Antonio’s City Center Development Office
contracted Team Better Block of Dallas with the Project for
Public Spaces in New York City to develop a site plan that
narrowed a segment of West Commerce Street from 4 lanes
to 3 to create a more inviting pedestrian experience.
Guy Dauncey 2013
Just for one day…
www.earthfuture.com
217.
Bike Path in Cambridge, UK
Starpath is a sprayable coating of light-absorbing
particles that harvests UV rays from the sun during
the day and lights up like a starry sky at night.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
www.pro-teqsurfacing.com
257.
Community
Economic
Education
Affordable
Housing
Initiatives
1 Benefit Corporations
1
8
8
The
Community
Economy
in 2032
7
7
Community
Welfare
Basic
Income
2
2
Green Business
Certification
3
3
Village
Business
Networks
4 Coop Network
4
6
6
5
5
Values-Based Banking
258.
1
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Benefit Corporations
259.
2
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Green Business
Certification
260.
3
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Village Business
Networks
261.
4
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Cooperatives
Network
262.
5
Values-Based
Banking
Interest-free banking
Debt Circles
Community currencies
Microfinance
Local business lending
Credit Unions
Bank of BC
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
263.
6
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Community Welfare
and
Basic Income
264.
7
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Affordable
Housing
Initiatives
265.
7
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Affordable
Housing
Initiatives
266.
7
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Affordable
Housing
Initiatives
LoftCube
267.
7
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Affordable
Housing
Initiatives
268.
8
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Community
Economic
Education
289.
Engaging Young People
www.leadingchangenetwork.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
290.
Electronic ballots
Voting aged reduced to 16
Transferable Voting for City Hall
$100 tax credit for voting (revenue neutral)
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
291.
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Design the Future
Community Meetings
292.
The Happy, Resilient City
More walking, biking, bus, carsharing
Lower transport costs
More urban food gardens
Cheaper and healthier eating
Innovative affordable housing
Lower housing costs
Stronger neighbourhoods
More friends, more real community
More urban greenery
More inner space, and peace
Stronger community economy
More financial security
Green, energy-efficient homes
Lower energy costs
No more fossil fuels
Clean air, clear sky, quiet city
More civic engagement
Healthier political realm
Basic Income
Less poverty, fear and homelessness
More arts, music and neighbourhood
celebration
More friends, more happiness,
more love
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com