City of the Future: The View from 2032

1. CITY OF THE FUTURE The View from 2032 Guy Dauncey, Living Future Symposium Victoria, November 2013

2. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

7. We’ve come a long way from this…. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

8. To this … Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

9. but… Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

10. We’ve also come to this… Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com ©Smithore Dreamstime.com

13. If everyone lived the way we do, we'd need another two Earths Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

14. CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute As we burn the fossil fuels… = 1,000 tonnes a second Guy Dauncey 2013 2007 www.earthfuture.com

15. Monday Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

16. OMG! Daddy, you’re going to die!!!! Monday Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

25. 25 metres 18 metres The last time the global temperature was 3°C warmer, the sea-level was 25 metres higher. 10 metres 2 metres Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

26. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Global CO2 in 1750 (biogenic)

27. CO2 emissions since1750 (anthropogenic) Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

28. Maximum extra CO2 to stay below 2°C of warming Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

29. Potential CO2 in declared fossil fuel reserves Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

30. All of this must remain in the ground Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

32. "Dreams are extremely important. You can't do it unless you can imagine it.” - George Lucas Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

33. "Create your future from your future, not your past.” - Werner Erhard Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

34. "Pain pushes until vision pulls." - Michael Beckwith Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

35. So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future? Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

37. Ten Themes Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 1: The Return of Nature

40. Habitat for Urban Wildlife Ifat Finkelman Ofer Bilik Architects, Israel

43. Animal Wall, Cardiff Bay, Wales Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

44. London Fiel Duncan Terrace GardensIslington, Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

45. Back to Nature Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

49. Turning THIS… Brooklyn Public School 216 Arturo Toscanini, New York Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com

50. into THIS. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com

51. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Hundertwasserhaus, Vienna

54. Musee du Quai Branly, Paris Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Patrick Blanc, Le Mur Vegetal

55. Patrick Blanc Madrid’s vertical garden is made up of more than 15,000 plants, from 250 different species. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

56. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Athenaeum Hotel, London Patrick Blanc

57. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com ACROS building, Fukuoka, Japan 35,000 plants, 76 species

58. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Flower Tower, Paris, 2004 www.edouardfrancois.com

60. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com United Bank of Switzerland Basel

61. Singapore, Editt Tower (proposed) Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

62. Singapore, Editt Tower Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

63. The Gherkin, London Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

66. Before… Semiahmoo Transit Station Surrey, BC, Canada Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

67. After… Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.greenovergrey.com

69. Vincent Callebaut Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

70. Vincent Callebaut: Asian Cairns, Sustainable Megaliths for Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 Rural Urbanity, Shenzhen, China, 2013 www.earthfuture.c www.earthfuture.com

71. Is this your dream home of the future? Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

72. Or this? Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.c www.earthfuture.com

73. Or this? Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

74. Ten Themes 2: Green, Sustainable Energy Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

75. By 2016, every new home in Britain must be zero-carbon. www.zerocarbonhub.org Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

76. Zero Net Energy Housing By 2020, every new home in California must be zero net energy - emit no carbon and give power back to the grid. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

77. The Best Green Building Policies 1. Strong Climate Action legislation Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

78. The Best Green Building Policies 1. Strong Climate Action legislation 2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

79. The Best Green Building Policies 1. Strong Climate Action legislation 2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled 1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all permitted improvement projects above $20,000 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

80. The Best Green Building Policies 1. Strong Climate Action legislation 2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled 1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all permitted improvement projects above $20,000 2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and report energy use annually (San Francisco) Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

81. The Best Green Building Policies 1. Strong Climate Action legislation 2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled 1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all permitted improvement projects above $20,000 2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and report energy use annually (San Francisco) 3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

82. The Best Green Building Policies 1. Strong Climate Action legislation 2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled 1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all permitted improvement projects above $20,000 2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and report energy use annually (San Francisco) 3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades 4. Sustainability Checklists for Developers Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

83. The Best Green Building Policies 1. Strong Climate Action legislation 2. New Green Building Code: All new buildings required to be zero-carbon, zero toxics, solar-ready, EV charging, energy-labeled 1. Energy upgrade required at point of sale, and for all permitted improvement projects above $20,000 2. All buildings over 10,000 sq. ft. required to track and report energy use annually (San Francisco) 3. On-Bill + PACE Financing for energy upgrades 4. Sustainability Checklists for Developers 5. Green building grants, education and technical services Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

84. www.architecture2030.org Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

85. Empire State Building Sustainability Retrofit 38% reduced energy use Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

86. The Passive House Winter: -10 oC outside, no heat needed inside Summer: 35 oC outside, only 26 oC inside Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

87. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com

88. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Construction costs: 4.3% more per square foot

89. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Monthly net energy savings more than the increased mortgage

90. LED Lighting Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

91. LED Chandeliers Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

92. Greenwatt Way, Slough, UK Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 63 kW solar PV, 30 kW Biomass boiler 40 kW air source heat pump 2 x 17 kW Ground source heat pumps Energy Centre roof 20 m2 solar thermal panels

93. BedZED Sutton, London, UK Super-efficient, smart metered CHP power and hot water from local tree wastes Space heat: 88% less Hot water: 57% less Electricity: 25% less Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

94. Energy  Centre Beddington Zero Energy Housing (BedZED), Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Sutton, London, UK

95. Renewable Energy Heat Pumps Solar-Source Moisture-Source Ground-Source Water-Source Sewer-Source Ice-Source Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

96. Solar (air source) Heat Pump Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

97. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Ductless Mini-Split Solar Heat Pump

98. Solar Air Moisture Heat Pump Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com The Octopus Ice-Stick www.octopus.tm

99. 50-75% reduced heating costs Air moisture heat pump 50 years life span Operates down to -25oC Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

100. Since 1991, in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, Holland, Italy, Romania, Ireland. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

101. Cruxifix Ice-Stick Heat Pump Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

102. Ground-Source Solar Heat Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

104. Geothermal Radial Drilling, Austria Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com http://geothermic.tracto-technik.com

106. Water-Source Solar Heat Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

107. Ice-Source Heat Richmond Olympic Skating Oval Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

108. Solar Hot Water on a restaurant in Sweden Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan

109. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Rizhao, China

110. www.solarbc.ca Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com A project of the BCSEA

112. Solar Thermal District Heat Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta.

113. 800 solar hot water panels on the garages 90% of residential space heating needs met by solar thermal energy (40-50o C) Reduction - 5 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions per home per year. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

114. Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year The Energy Centre Solar hot water panels Guy Dauncey 2013 2007 www.earthfuture.com Community solar heat panels

116. Sorce: Solvis Solar Thermal Housing, Rostock, Germany Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

117. In Sweden, Stockholm sends heat from treated sewage effluent to 80,000 apartments Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

119. Pre-insulated pipe used to heat most homes and commercial buildings in Scandinavia. Insulation allows delivery of hot water at 200o C up to 24 km, with only a few degrees loss of heat. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

120. Solar PV Rolf Disch Solar Architecture Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

121. Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.c www.earthfuture.com

122. Taiwan Solar Stadium, 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com

123. Data from Stephen O'Rourke, senior analyst for semiconductor equipment and materials, Deutsche Bank Securities, via www.energyandcapital.com, February 2008 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

124. Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000 100,000 GW in 2012 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

127. 3 kW PV System $15,000 in Victoria $12,000 if bulk 30 houses $9,000 at IKEA, UK 3,300 kWh year Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

128. Solar Economics in Victoria, BC (No Feed-in Tariff) 3 kW, 3% financing, 3% pa BC Hydro inflation 2013 Cost per kW $5,000 Cost of 3 kW system $15,000 $25 yr 3% mortgage $21,300 2020 $3,000 $9,000 $12,780 kWh per year 25 years + 3% pa 3,300 kWh $12,009 3,300 kWh $14,768 Profit (Loss) (-$9,291) $1,988 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

129. The Human Journey 5,000,000 years past 5,000,000 years future This tiny slither of time is the Age of Fossil FuelsGuy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c

130. If we act as we should, we will make the 200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for a billion Solar Years Firewood Solar 500,000 years Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

131. If we act as we should, we will make the 200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for a billion Solar Years Firewood Solar 500,000 years Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Fossil Solar 200 years

132. If we act as we should, we will make the 200 Carbon Years the launch ramp for a billion Solar Years Renewable Solar 1.75 billion years Firewood Solar 500,000 years Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Fossil Solar 200 years

133. Ten Themes 3: Sustainable Watersheds Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

136. Restoring urban creeks and streams Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

137. Still Creek, Vancouver. Chum Salmon restored after 80 years Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

138. Home Water Conservation: Dual Flush Toilets Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

139. Composting Toilets Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

140. Rainwater Storage Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

143. Bioswale to capture rainwater SEA Street, Seattle Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

144. SEA Street, Seattle Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

145. Water Conservation Credits in 2032 1. Builder seeks building permit for new house 2. Water conserving actions in existing houses earn conservation credits 3. Water conserving companies retrofit existing houses, collect credits. 4. Builder buys credits to qualify for building permit 5. Net increase in water-use = ZERO Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

146. Ten Themes Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 4: Reclaimed Streets

147. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Re-imagine Re-design Re-claim

152. ‘What a Thrill’ Street, San Antonio, Texas Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

153. In 2012, San Antonio’s City Center Development Office contracted Team Better Block of Dallas with the Project for Public Spaces in New York City to develop a site plan that narrowed a segment of West Commerce Street from 4 lanes to 3 to create a more inviting pedestrian experience. Guy Dauncey 2013 Just for one day… www.earthfuture.com

158. Team Better Block San Antonio, Texas www.betterblock.org Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

159. Proyecto Urbano Integral, Medellin, Colombia Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

160. Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea Before and After Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

161. Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

163. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com The Highline Converted Railway, New York

164. Proposed Drexel City Campus, New York, with the Highline running through it Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

165. Brooklyn Bridge Remix/Redux Terreform and Michael Sorkin Studio Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com

166. London: a Garden Bridge across the Thames Thomas Heatherwick Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

168. Rua Gonçalo de Carvalho, Porto Allegro, Brazil Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

170. Berge de Seine, Paris Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

177. Place de la Republique, Paris, 1850s

178. Place de la Republique, 2006

179. stephanekirkland.com Place de la Republique, 2013

180. Ten Themes 5: Thriving Neighborhoods Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

181. Portland, Oregon Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.c www.earthfuture.com www.CityRepair.org

185. EarthSong Eco-Neigbourhood, Auckland, New Zealand Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

186. Pioneer Valley Cohousing, Massachusetts Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

188. Jamestown Mall, St. Louis County, Missouri Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

189. Possible Future: Jamestown Mall, Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

190. Namba Parks Osaka, Japan Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

191. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Hundertwasser's Waldspirale, Darmstadt, Germany

192. Ten Themes 6: Healthy Urban Organic Food Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

193. www.talkgreentous.ca Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

194. Moss Street Market, Victoria Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

200. Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com Fulham Palace Allotment Gardens, London

205. Valencia, Spain Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com

207. Ten Themes 7: Sustainable Transportation without Fossil Fuels Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

208. Walking

209. Graben Street, Vienna

210. Times Square, New York

211. Toronto Walking School Bus

212. Neighbourhood Walkability Audit www.walklive.org

213. Cycling Amsterdam

214. Amsterdam

215. Vancouver

217. Bike Path in Cambridge, UK Starpath is a sprayable coating of light-absorbing particles that harvests UV rays from the sun during the day and lights up like a starry sky at night. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.pro-teqsurfacing.com

218. City Bike Sharing, Washington DC

219. Electric Bicycles Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

223. School at Assen, Holland

225. Transit

226. In Stockholm, 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment (Stephen Salter)

227. Umea, Sweden Fast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day 1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electricity to go 10 km www.opbrid.com

228. OLEV On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

229. Japan’s Future Electric Bus Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

230. Real-time electronic timetable

231. Bus shelter in Taiwan

232. LRT in Portland, Oregon

233. LRT in Mulhouse, France

234. Proyecto Urbano Integral, Medellin, Colombia Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

235. Real-time Ride-sharing www.car.ma

236. Car Sharing Victoria Carshare Coop 650 members share 23 vehicles See www.victoriacarshare.ca

237. Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing Vehicles owners earn up to $300 a month

238. Chevy Volt 2,500 km on one tank of gas Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

239. Volkswagen XL1 (1-litre) 2012 Diesel plug-in hybrid 75 km battery range 0.9 litres/100 km 312 mpg

240. Renault Twizy EV 2 seats, 100 km range, 3.5 hours recharge $9,700 + $60/month battery lease

242. Smart Electric – 135 km range Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

243. Tesla EV Model-X 7 seats 350 kilometers range

244. Honda solar electric car charging Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

245. PV for EV 1.5 kW solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year = 10,000 km

246. PV for EV 1.5 kW PV = $7,500 25 year PV loan 3.5% = $37/month Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month

247. Electric car fast charging Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

248. www.cargohopper.com Cargohopper 3 tonnes max 60 km range 20 kph top speed Urban deliveries Holland

249. EVs + Bikes = less urban noise Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

250. No fossil fuel pollution = clear skies Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

251. Ten Themes Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 8: A Strong Green Local Economy

257. Community Economic Education Affordable Housing Initiatives 1 Benefit Corporations 1 8 8 The Community Economy in 2032 7 7 Community Welfare Basic Income 2 2 Green Business Certification 3 3 Village Business Networks 4 Coop Network 4 6 6 5 5 Values-Based Banking

258. 1 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Benefit Corporations

259. 2 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Green Business Certification

260. 3 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Village Business Networks

261. 4 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Cooperatives Network

262. 5 Values-Based Banking Interest-free banking Debt Circles Community currencies Microfinance Local business lending Credit Unions Bank of BC Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

263. 6 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Community Welfare and Basic Income

264. 7 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Affordable Housing Initiatives

266. 7 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Affordable Housing Initiatives LoftCube

268. 8 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Community Economic Education

270. Ten Themes 9: A Thriving Artistic Culture Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

284. THE ELECTRONIC SIDEWALK YOUR POEM HERE

285. wake up your senses walk with a dog in the rain then roll on the rug Kim Pearson

286. A violin plays as the common space becomes a place of beauty. Jenny Gerbasi

287. Ten Themes Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 10: A Strong Participatory Democracy

288. Community engagement

289. Engaging Young People www.leadingchangenetwork.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

290. Electronic ballots Voting aged reduced to 16 Transferable Voting for City Hall $100 tax credit for voting (revenue neutral) Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

291. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Design the Future Community Meetings

292. The Happy, Resilient City More walking, biking, bus, carsharing Lower transport costs More urban food gardens Cheaper and healthier eating Innovative affordable housing Lower housing costs Stronger neighbourhoods More friends, more real community More urban greenery More inner space, and peace Stronger community economy More financial security Green, energy-efficient homes Lower energy costs No more fossil fuels Clean air, clear sky, quiet city More civic engagement Healthier political realm Basic Income Less poverty, fear and homelessness More arts, music and neighbourhood celebration More friends, more happiness, more love Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

293. BUT… Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

296. To reduce the risk of this … Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

298. We must do this … Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

306. A Green, Sustainable Future is not an Option It is an Absolute Necessity in which we must all become engaged Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

309. Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com