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Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Beyond Oil
Imagining the Future
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Question:
Climate Change:
A: It’s a very serious looming crisis
B: Confused; not sure wha...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Question:
Transportation without Oil:
A: Yes, I believe it’s possible
B: I don’t know if ...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Before Oil…
Remembering the Past
Four million years of walking
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Walking = 4,000,000 years
Vancouver to Kelowna/Kamloops = 400 km
10,000 years = 1 kilomet...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Petrolia, Ontario
1858
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
As we burn the fossil fuels…
Guy Dauncey 2007
www.ea...
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Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
+ 2˚C rise
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The last time the world was 3°C warmer
the sea level was 25 metres higher
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
2 metres
10 metres
18 metres
25 metres
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
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www.earthfuture.com
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German Institute for Economic Research and Watkiss et al. 2005
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Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
Tar Sands: 1.2 million barrels a day
The world is co...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
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Total carbon in the world’s fossil fuel reserves
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
The Teeny-Weeny, Ever-So-Brief
Age of Oil
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
10,000
years past
10,000
years future
The Teeny-Witz...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
10,000
years past
10,000
years future
The Teeny-Witz...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011
www.earthfuture.com
A billion years
future
Neolithic Era: 8,000 years
An...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Beyond Oil
Awakening the Future
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
BCSEA 2012
www.bcsea.org
BCSEA vision
is a sustainable
future in which
all of BC’s
energy...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
How Are We Using the Oil?
Cars & light trucks 40%
Heavy trucks 13%
Flying 8%
Shipping 2.5...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
1 5% shift to walking
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Neighbourhood Walkability Audit
www.walklive.org
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Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com Toronto Walking School Bus
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
A 5% shift to walking
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
2 15% shift to cycling
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement
is by bicycle
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
 Safe bike lanes and routes
 Good bike parking
 Cycling education in schools
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Vancouver, Howe Street
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City Bike Sharing
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Electric Bicycles
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www.earthfuture.com
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www.emcyclellc.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
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A fun cycling culture
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School at Assen, Holland
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IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
15% shift to cycling
Guy Dauncey 2013
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The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
15% sh...
Guy Dauncey 2013
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3 v15% shift to
transit and LRT
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Hasselt, Belgium
Free transit, included in city taxes
1996-2006 13-fold increase in rider...
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Real-time electronic displays
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Bus shelter in Taiwan
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas
from sewage treatment
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Umea, Sweden
Fast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day
1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electrici...
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OLEV
On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea
Guy Dauncey 2013
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www.earthfuture.com
Japan’s Future Electric Bus
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IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
15% shift to Transit & LRT
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LRT in Portland, Oregon
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www.earthfuture.com
Electric train
+ green electricity
= no climate impa...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
15% sh...
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4 5% shift to Telework
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Earthfuture.com Cisco Systems
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
5% shift to Telework
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
15% sh...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
5 v5% shift to
Ride-Sharing
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Kijiji
Craigslist
Shareyourride.net
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Real-time Ride-sharing
www.car.ma
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guaranteed emergency ride home
Cash-out parking – paid for not using employee
parking s...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
5% shift to Ridesharing
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
15% sh...
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See
650 members share 23 vehicles
www.victoriacarshare.ca
6
5% shift to Car Sharing
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Car-sharing forecast
North America 2016:
4.4 million users
David Zhao, automotive researc...
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Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing
Vehicles owners earn
up to $300 a month
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IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
5% shift to Car-sharing
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
15% sh...
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7
Better Inter-Modal
Connections
Single Smart Card for
transit, LRT, car-share,
ride-sha...
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Transport London’s Oyster Card
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Walk Bike
Food Help
Taxi
Skype
ParkRide share
Ski-lift
Maps
Ferry Fly
Car share
LRTTransi...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
Better Inter-Modal
Connections
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8 Smart Growth
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Jamestown Mall Area Plan, St. Louis County, Missouri
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Metro do Porto, Portugal
Guy Dauncey 2013
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IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
Smart Growth
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9 50% shift to Hybrid EVs
80% of average mileage on electric drive
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Chevy Volt
2,500 km on one tank of gas
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Volkswagen XL1 (1-litre) 2012
Diesel plug-in hybrid
795 kg 75km battery range
0.9 litres/...
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IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
50% shift to Hybrid EVs
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
15% sh...
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10 v50% shift to
Electric Vehicles
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Low Price: Renault Twizy EV
 2 seats, 100 km range, made in Spain
 80 kph top speed, 3....
Guy Dauncey 2013
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In UK: $10,600 + $65 monthly battery lease charge
Top
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Mid-price: Mitsubishi MiEV
 5 seats
 Top speed 130 kph
 150 km range
 $25,000 after r...
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Smart Electric – 135 km range
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Toyota RAV4 EV
148 km range
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Top price: Tesla EV Model-X
 7 seats. Spacious luggage capacity front & rear
 0-90 kph ...
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Top
The KIA Pop: yet to be released
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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STELLA
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Made by Dutch students, Eindhoven University
Family size, 4-seater
Roadworthy, legal in H...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Electric cars,
running on green electricity
= no cli...
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Honda solar electric car charging
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Electric car fast charging
Guy Dauncey 2013
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50% fuel reduction
Mercedes Biome concept car
Ultra-lights
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Average car 2,000 kg
Toyota Prius V 1,485 kg
Evonik Elise EV 950 kg
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
1.5 kW of solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year
Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km
10,000 km = 1,500 kWh...
Guy Dauncey 2013
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1.5 kW solar PV
$7,500
3.5% 25 year mortgage on $7.5k = $37/month
Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80...
Guy Dauncey 2013
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IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
50% shift to Electric Vehicles
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
The Journey Beyond Oil
Cars & light trucks
5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
15% sh...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
IS IT POSSIBLE?
YES
NO
MAYBE
100% shift to Beyond Oil
for cars & light trucks
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Integrated Governance
Cycling
Transit
Highways
Rail
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Integrated Cost Analysis
$
Cycling
Transit
Highways
Rail
$
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Cost of a new traffic lane
$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Cost of a new traffic lane
$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
Cost of a 1....
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Cost of a new traffic lane
$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
Cost of a 1....
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Cost of a new traffic lane
$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
Cost of a 1....
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
 Carbon Taxes
 Feebates
 Road tolls
 Utility Public
Service Charges
How can we pay fo...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Electronic Road Pricing
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Road-pricing
on the Malahat
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
30,000 vehicles a day
$2 one-way toll = $60,000 a day
= 250 luxury coaches
= up to 10,000...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Electric Freight
Renault Radiance Dutch concept electric truck
 Average 18-wheeler 6.5 m...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Cargohopper
 3 tonnes max
 60 km range
 20 kph top speed
 Urban deliveries
 Holland
...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Freight Solutions - Trucking
 Super-efficient designs save 35%
 Electric plug-in to eli...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Solar Electric
Freight Tube
Vancouver – San Diego
5 hours
1994 US Federal Highway
Adminis...
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Shipping Solutions
2.5% of global oil use
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Solar Sailor www.solarsailor.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
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The Maltese Falcon: Advanced Square Rigger Sail Design
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
B9 Shipping: 100% renewably powered commercially and
technically viable sailing hybrid ca...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
9 MW of solar panels
Retractable sails between each cargo bay
Self-unloading cargo bays
S...
Guy Dauncey 2013
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 Slowing from 25 to 20 knots – saves 50%
 Slowing from 23.5 to 20 knots - saves 25%
 S...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Flying Solutions
8% of global oil use
Latest designs save 20%
But a 20% increased demand ...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Proposed EADS VoltAir lithium-air battery aircraft
Superconducting electric motors
Paris ...
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Renewable Electricity
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Renewable Fuel
Biofuel made from…
 Farm and forest wastes
 Sewage and urban organic was...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Renewable Fuel
Will there be enough?
Rocky Mountain Institute:
with 84% fuel-saving poten...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Stronger Local Economies
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
So what’s
The Secret
to make it all happen?
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Community engagement
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Special Discount
$20
Signed copies
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
BCSEA 2012
www.bcsea.org
Together, we can change the world.
To become a BCSEA Member
www....
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
This whole presentation is available on
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
How can we make it happen?
Questions
Discussion
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous?
W...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Voyager 1 photo of
Earth from 6 billion
kilometers.
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
The Universe has taken
13 billion years
to create us
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of stars in the Universe
1024: 1 trillion tri...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of
atoms in your
body:
1027: 1000 trillion
tr...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Every atom in your body was either made in the Big B...
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of stars in our galaxy
100 trillion
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Number of synapses in your brain
100 trillion
All se...
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
We are all conscious
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Do you have free will to choose your future?
Or is e...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
You have free will
We can make a difference
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
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Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
This is about us, our planet,
and our future.
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Taken together,
our efforts to make a better world
are like drops of dew
that slowly accu...
Guy Dauncey 2013
Earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013
www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com
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Beyond Oil: Imagining the Future

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A Public Lecture by Guy Dauncey, given in Kelowna and Kamloops, Sept 10/11th, 2013

Published in: Technology, Business

Beyond Oil: Imagining the Future

  1. 1. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Beyond Oil Imagining the Future
  2. 2. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Question: Climate Change: A: It’s a very serious looming crisis B: Confused; not sure what to make of it C: It’s overblown. Earth’s climate has always been variable
  3. 3. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Question: Transportation without Oil: A: Yes, I believe it’s possible B: I don’t know if it’s possible C: No, it’s not possible.
  4. 4. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Before Oil… Remembering the Past Four million years of walking
  5. 5. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Walking = 4,000,000 years Vancouver to Kelowna/Kamloops = 400 km 10,000 years = 1 kilometre The last 100 years = 10 metres
  6. 6. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Petrolia, Ontario 1858
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  24. 24. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.co CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second
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  28. 28. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com + 2˚C rise
  29. 29. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The last time the world was 3°C warmer the sea level was 25 metres higher
  30. 30. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  31. 31. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 2 metres 10 metres 18 metres 25 metres
  32. 32. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
  33. 33. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
  34. 34. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net
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  40. 40. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  41. 41. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  42. 42. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com German Institute for Economic Research and Watkiss et al. 2005
  43. 43. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  44. 44. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  45. 45. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  46. 46. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  47. 47. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  48. 48. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com Tar Sands: 1.2 million barrels a day The world is consuming 89 million barrels a day
  49. 49. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
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  51. 51. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  52. 52. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  53. 53. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  54. 54. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  55. 55. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  56. 56. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Total carbon in the world’s fossil fuel reserves
  57. 57. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  58. 58. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  59. 59. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  60. 60. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  61. 61. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com The Teeny-Weeny, Ever-So-Brief Age of Oil
  62. 62. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com 10,000 years past 10,000 years future The Teeny-Witzy, Ever-So-Brief Age of Oil Neolithic Era: 8,000 years Ancient Egypt: 3,000 years Roman Empire: 1,000 years Islamic Golden Age: 600 years Era of Oil: 100 years
  63. 63. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com 10,000 years past 10,000 years future The Teeny-Witzy, Ever-So-Brief Age of Oil Neolithic Era: 8,000 years Ancient Egypt: 3,000 years Roman Empire: 1,000 years Islamic Golden Age: 600 years Age of Oil: 100 years What happens here?
  64. 64. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com A billion years future Neolithic Era: 8,000 years Ancient Egypt: 3,000 years Roman Empire: 1,000 years Islamic Golden Age: 600 years Age of Oil: 100 years The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant for a billion years. That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years
  65. 65. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  66. 66. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  67. 67. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Beyond Oil Awakening the Future
  68. 68. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com BCSEA 2012 www.bcsea.org BCSEA vision is a sustainable future in which all of BC’s energy is green and renewable.
  69. 69. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com How Are We Using the Oil? Cars & light trucks 40% Heavy trucks 13% Flying 8% Shipping 2.5% Asphalt 3% Rail freight 1% Recreational 1% Military 1.5% TOTAL TRANSPORT 71% Non-transport uses 29%
  70. 70. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1 5% shift to walking
  71. 71. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  72. 72. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Neighbourhood Walkability Audit www.walklive.org
  73. 73. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  74. 74. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  75. 75. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  76. 76. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  77. 77. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  78. 78. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  79. 79. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Toronto Walking School Bus
  80. 80. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE A 5% shift to walking
  81. 81. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Journey Beyond Oil Cars & light trucks 5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand
  82. 82. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 2 15% shift to cycling
  83. 83. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle
  84. 84. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com  Safe bike lanes and routes  Good bike parking  Cycling education in schools
  85. 85. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Vancouver, Howe Street
  86. 86. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  87. 87. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  88. 88. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  89. 89. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com City Bike Sharing
  90. 90. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electric Bicycles
  91. 91. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  92. 92. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  93. 93. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  94. 94. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  95. 95. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com www.emcyclellc.com
  96. 96. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com A fun cycling culture
  97. 97. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  98. 98. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  99. 99. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com School at Assen, Holland
  100. 100. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  101. 101. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE 15% shift to cycling
  102. 102. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Journey Beyond Oil Cars & light trucks 5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand 15% shift to cycling = 80% …
  103. 103. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 3 v15% shift to transit and LRT
  104. 104. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Hasselt, Belgium Free transit, included in city taxes 1996-2006 13-fold increase in ridership
  105. 105. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Real-time electronic displays
  106. 106. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Bus shelter in Taiwan
  107. 107. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment
  108. 108. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Umea, Sweden Fast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day 1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electricity to go 10 km www.opbrid.com
  109. 109. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com OLEV On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea
  110. 110. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  111. 111. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Japan’s Future Electric Bus
  112. 112. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE 15% shift to Transit & LRT
  113. 113. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com LRT in Portland, Oregon
  114. 114. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  115. 115. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electric train + green electricity = no climate impact
  116. 116. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Journey Beyond Oil Cars & light trucks 5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand 15% shift to cycling = 80% … 15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …
  117. 117. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 4 5% shift to Telework
  118. 118. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  119. 119. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  120. 120. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cisco Systems
  121. 121. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE 5% shift to Telework
  122. 122. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Journey Beyond Oil Cars & light trucks 5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand 15% shift to cycling = 80% … 15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% … 5% shift to telework = 60% …
  123. 123. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 5 v5% shift to Ride-Sharing
  124. 124. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Kijiji Craigslist Shareyourride.net
  125. 125. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  126. 126. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Real-time Ride-sharing www.car.ma
  127. 127. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guaranteed emergency ride home Cash-out parking – paid for not using employee parking space Rideshare Plus Rewards Book
  128. 128. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE 5% shift to Ridesharing
  129. 129. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Journey Beyond Oil Cars & light trucks 5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand 15% shift to cycling = 80% … 15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% … 5% shift to telework = 60% … 5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …
  130. 130. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com See 650 members share 23 vehicles www.victoriacarshare.ca 6 5% shift to Car Sharing
  131. 131. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Car-sharing forecast North America 2016: 4.4 million users David Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan,
  132. 132. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing Vehicles owners earn up to $300 a month
  133. 133. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  134. 134. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  135. 135. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE 5% shift to Car-sharing
  136. 136. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Journey Beyond Oil Cars & light trucks 5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand 15% shift to cycling = 80% … 15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% … 5% shift to telework = 60% … 5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% … 5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …
  137. 137. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 7 Better Inter-Modal Connections Single Smart Card for transit, LRT, car-share, ride-share, ferries, rail Good transit-ferry connections Good bike-parking at every transit station
  138. 138. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Transport London’s Oyster Card
  139. 139. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Walk Bike Food Help Taxi Skype ParkRide share Ski-lift Maps Ferry Fly Car share LRTTransit Rail
  140. 140. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE Better Inter-Modal Connections
  141. 141. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 8 Smart Growth
  142. 142. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  143. 143. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  144. 144. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  145. 145. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Jamestown Mall Area Plan, St. Louis County, Missouri
  146. 146. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Metro do Porto, Portugal
  147. 147. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE Smart Growth
  148. 148. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 9 50% shift to Hybrid EVs 80% of average mileage on electric drive
  149. 149. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Chevy Volt 2,500 km on one tank of gas
  150. 150. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Volkswagen XL1 (1-litre) 2012 Diesel plug-in hybrid 795 kg 75km battery range 0.9 litres/100 km (260 mpg US)
  151. 151. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE 50% shift to Hybrid EVs
  152. 152. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Journey Beyond Oil Cars & light trucks 5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand 15% shift to cycling = 80% … 15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% … 5% shift to telework = 60% … 5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% … 5% shift to car-sharing = 50% … 50% of vehicles hybrid electric = 30% 80% of mileage electric
  153. 153. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 10 v50% shift to Electric Vehicles
  154. 154. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  155. 155. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Low Price: Renault Twizy EV  2 seats, 100 km range, made in Spain  80 kph top speed, 3.5 hours recharge  $9,700 + $60/month battery lease
  156. 156. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com In UK: $10,600 + $65 monthly battery lease charge Top
  157. 157. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Mid-price: Mitsubishi MiEV  5 seats  Top speed 130 kph  150 km range  $25,000 after rebates
  158. 158. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range
  159. 159. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Smart Electric – 135 km range
  160. 160. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Toyota RAV4 EV 148 km range
  161. 161. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Top price: Tesla EV Model-X  7 seats. Spacious luggage capacity front & rear  0-90 kph in 4.4 seconds  300-400 kilomertes range  $67,000 plus incentives  Delivery in 2014
  162. 162. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Top The KIA Pop: yet to be released
  163. 163. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  164. 164. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com STELLA
  165. 165. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  166. 166. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Made by Dutch students, Eindhoven University Family size, 4-seater Roadworthy, legal in Holland Weight: 380 kg (1120 kg for normal EV) Range: 400 km no sunshine, 600 km full sunshine Solar PV cost $4,000 10 months a year it produces more energy than it uses Excess power back into the grid
  167. 167. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electric cars, running on green electricity = no climate impact
  168. 168. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Honda solar electric car charging
  169. 169. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electric car fast charging
  170. 170. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  171. 171. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 50% fuel reduction Mercedes Biome concept car Ultra-lights
  172. 172. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Average car 2,000 kg Toyota Prius V 1,485 kg Evonik Elise EV 950 kg
  173. 173. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1.5 kW of solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km 10,000 km = 1,500 kWh PV for EV
  174. 174. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 1.5 kW solar PV $7,500 3.5% 25 year mortgage on $7.5k = $37/month Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month
  175. 175. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE 50% shift to Electric Vehicles
  176. 176. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Journey Beyond Oil Cars & light trucks 5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand 15% shift to cycling = 80% … 15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% … 5% shift to telework = 60% … 5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% … 5% shift to car-sharing = 50% … 50% vehicles hybrid EV 80% = 30% … 50% of vehicles are electric = 5% … Lightweight design saves 50% = 2.5% … If all vehicles EVs = 0.0% … = Beyond Oil
  177. 177. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com IS IT POSSIBLE? YES NO MAYBE 100% shift to Beyond Oil for cars & light trucks
  178. 178. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Integrated Governance Cycling Transit Highways Rail
  179. 179. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Integrated Cost Analysis $ Cycling Transit Highways Rail $
  180. 180. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cost of a new traffic lane $300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour
  181. 181. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cost of a new traffic lane $300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane $5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping 2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective
  182. 182. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cost of a new traffic lane $300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane $5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping 2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective $35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required = 5 to 35 times more cost-effective Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996.
  183. 183. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cost of a new traffic lane $300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane $5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping 2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective $35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required = 5 to 35 times more cost-effective Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996. Cost of a new separated bike lane $100,000 per km = 7 to 12 times more cost-effective
  184. 184. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com  Carbon Taxes  Feebates  Road tolls  Utility Public Service Charges How can we pay for it all?
  185. 185. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Electronic Road Pricing
  186. 186. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Road-pricing on the Malahat
  187. 187. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 30,000 vehicles a day $2 one-way toll = $60,000 a day = 250 luxury coaches = up to 10,000 passengers a day
  188. 188. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Electric Freight Renault Radiance Dutch concept electric truck  Average 18-wheeler 6.5 mpg  Super-efficient designs 9 mpg
  189. 189. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cargohopper  3 tonnes max  60 km range  20 kph top speed  Urban deliveries  Holland www.cargohopper.com
  190. 190. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Freight Solutions - Trucking  Super-efficient designs save 35%  Electric plug-in to eliminate idling saves 8%  Slower driving saves 8%  ‘Empty miles’ shipping saves 5-15%  Combined innovations could save 60% But 60% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.
  191. 191. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Solar Electric Freight Tube Vancouver – San Diego 5 hours 1994 US Federal Highway Administration study
  192. 192. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  193. 193. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  194. 194. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  195. 195. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Shipping Solutions 2.5% of global oil use
  196. 196. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Solar Sailor www.solarsailor.com
  197. 197. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  198. 198. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com The Maltese Falcon: Advanced Square Rigger Sail Design
  199. 199. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com B9 Shipping: 100% renewably powered commercially and technically viable sailing hybrid cargo ships. www.b9energy.com
  200. 200. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com 9 MW of solar panels Retractable sails between each cargo bay Self-unloading cargo bays Superconducting power link Modular LNG hydrogen fuel cells Sleek, low wind resistance design
  201. 201. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com  Slowing from 25 to 20 knots – saves 50%  Slowing from 23.5 to 20 knots - saves 25%  Skysails on slow boats (10 knots) - saves 20%  Ecospeed coating and underwater cleaning – saves 20%  Underwater propellor polishing – saves 2%  Black carbon elimination through cleaner fuel But 50% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.
  202. 202. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Flying Solutions 8% of global oil use Latest designs save 20% But a 20% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.
  203. 203. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Proposed EADS VoltAir lithium-air battery aircraft Superconducting electric motors Paris Airshow, 2011 Up to Mach 4, Paris – Tokyo in 2.5 hours
  204. 204. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Renewable Electricity
  205. 205. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Renewable Fuel Biofuel made from…  Farm and forest wastes  Sewage and urban organic wastes  Cultivated algae using waste CO2  Cultivated seaweed Renewable fuel made from…  Carbon monoxide and industrial wastes  Green hydrogen  Green methanol (hydrogen and waste CO2)
  206. 206. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Renewable Fuel Will there be enough? Rocky Mountain Institute: with 84% fuel-saving potential US demand = 3.1 million barrels a day USDA-DOE analysis: US farmland could sustainably provide dry collectable biomass wastes = 3 million barrels a day.
  207. 207. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Stronger Local Economies
  208. 208. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  209. 209. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com So what’s The Secret to make it all happen?
  210. 210. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Community engagement
  211. 211. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Special Discount $20 Signed copies
  212. 212. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com BCSEA 2012 www.bcsea.org Together, we can change the world. To become a BCSEA Member www.bcsea.org/join
  213. 213. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com This whole presentation is available on www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
  214. 214. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com How can we make it happen? Questions Discussion
  215. 215. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous? Where Do We Come From? What Are We? Where Are We Going??
  216. 216. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Voyager 1 photo of Earth from 6 billion kilometers.
  217. 217. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  218. 218. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com The Universe has taken 13 billion years to create us
  219. 219. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Number of stars in the Universe 1024: 1 trillion trillion
  220. 220. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Number of atoms in your body: 1027: 1000 trillion trillion All self-organized into one amazing whole
  221. 221. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Every atom in your body was either made in the Big Bang or in a later Supernova explosion
  222. 222. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Number of stars in our galaxy 100 trillion
  223. 223. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Number of synapses in your brain 100 trillion All self-organized into one amazing whole
  224. 224. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars
  225. 225. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com We are all conscious
  226. 226. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Do you have free will to choose your future? Or is everything predetermined?
  227. 227. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com You have free will We can make a difference
  228. 228. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  229. 229. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com
  230. 230. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
  231. 231. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com This is about us, our planet, and our future.
  232. 232. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Taken together, our efforts to make a better world are like drops of dew that slowly accumulate in the soul of the world. They hasten the day when the whole Earth, With all its peoples and all its many creatures, will enjoy harmony, fulfillment and peace.
  233. 233. Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com

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