El miércoles y jueves 18 y 19 de abril de 2018 celebramos en la Fundación Ramón Areces un Simposio Internacional sobre la ciencia y arte ante el cambio climático inducido por la actividad humana.

1. Peter WadhamsPeter Wadhams
Professor of Ocean PhysicsProfessor of Ocean Physics
Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical PhysicsDepartment of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics
University of CambridgeUniversity of Cambridge
Reinventar el horizonte: ciencia y arte ante el cambio climático, Madrid,Reinventar el horizonte: ciencia y arte ante el cambio climático, Madrid,
April 18-19 2018April 18-19 2018
El cambio climático: un desafio para laEl cambio climático: un desafio para la
sociedad contemporáneasociedad contemporánea
Climate change: a challenge to our presentClimate change: a challenge to our present
societysociety

2. Also in Italian, Dutch, Chinese, Japanese,Also in Italian, Dutch, Chinese, Japanese, …… Spanish?…… Spanish?

3. SSG Copenhagen 24-5-07

4. The Earth has
been warming
rapidly since the
mid-19th
Century…

6. Arctic amplification

8. Median summer and winter ice limits 1972-2007Median summer and winter ice limits 1972-2007

12. Stages in summer ice retreat: 2005, 2007
2005

13. SSG Copenhagen 24-5-07

15. Single-beam upward-looking sonar profile of sea iceSingle-beam upward-looking sonar profile of sea ice

16. Sovereign October 1976 – North Pole

17. Superb May 1987 – North PoleSuperb May 1987 – North Pole
(plus USS Sea Devil)(plus USS Sea Devil)

18. EM3002 multibeam sonar
in forward sonar dome
Multibeam sonar onMultibeam sonar on HMS TirelessHMS Tireless

22. SSG Copenhagen 24-5-07
Contour maps of mean ice
drafts from Eurasian Basin,
October 1976 and May 1987
(Wadhams, Nature, 1990)
Mean drafts from April 2004
(Initial Processing)

24. UUUUPPUUUUPP

25. Multi-year ice in summer (Beaufort Sea), 1970sMulti-year ice in summer (Beaufort Sea), 1970s

26. First year ice todayFirst year ice today

27. SSG Copenhagen 24-5-07

28. Surface temperature anomaly, Nov 10 2012Surface temperature anomaly, Nov 10 2012

29. Feedbacks from ice thinning and retreatFeedbacks from ice thinning and retreat
1. Albedo feedback1. Albedo feedback impact from sea ice retreatimpact from sea ice retreat
2. Albedo feedback from2. Albedo feedback from snowline retreatsnowline retreat
3. Accelerated melt from Greenland ice sheet leading to3. Accelerated melt from Greenland ice sheet leading to
enhanced rate of globalenhanced rate of global sea level risesea level rise
4.4. Threat ofThreat of methane pulsemethane pulse
5.5. Extreme weatherExtreme weather and food productionand food production
6. Decline in strength of the Atlantic6. Decline in strength of the Atlantic thermohalinethermohaline
circulationcirculation

30. SSG Copenhagen 24-5-07

34. 20122012 Greenland surface meltGreenland surface melt

36. bb

38. SSG Copenhagen 24-5-07

41. Effect of methane outbreak on global temperaturesEffect of methane outbreak on global temperatures
Emission of 50Gt 2015-2025, three scenariosEmission of 50Gt 2015-2025, three scenarios

42. Cost of methane outbreakCost of methane outbreak
per decade – total over 100 years 60 trillion dollarsper decade – total over 100 years 60 trillion dollars

45. SSG Copenhagen 24-5-07

46. Permafrost on land: the “ticking Arctic time bomb” (Science, 2012)Permafrost on land: the “ticking Arctic time bomb” (Science, 2012)

47. Simulation of jet stream (NASA)Simulation of jet stream (NASA)

49. Crops

51. SSG Copenhagen 24-5-07

52. SSG Copenhagen 24-5-07
The large marine conveyor belt
with cold deep flow and warm
surface current. (Source: DKRZ/MPI-
Hamburg).
Annual mean surface temperature
anomalies, from NCAR data, relative
to zonal averages. There is a 5-10°C
warm anomaly over NW Europe and
the Nordic Seas (Rahmstorf, S. A.,
Ganapolski, 1999).
Thermohaline circulation is weakening

53. Greenland Sea in a
severe winter
Convective chimneys form in the
Odden ice tongue

55. Potential Temperature
Potential Density
Salinity

56. A convective chimney in the Greenland SeaA convective chimney in the Greenland Sea
Discovered by “Jan Mayen” 2001, 75N 0W, 10 km diameter (Wadhams et al, 2004)Discovered by “Jan Mayen” 2001, 75N 0W, 10 km diameter (Wadhams et al, 2004)

58. What can we do?What can we do?
• WARMING can be slowed by reducing carbon emissions, i.e.WARMING can be slowed by reducing carbon emissions, i.e.
switching to renewable energy (which includes nuclear), but can’tswitching to renewable energy (which includes nuclear), but can’t
be slowed to less than 2 C by end of this century (Paris Agreement)be slowed to less than 2 C by end of this century (Paris Agreement)
• Only real solution is taking CO2 out of atmosphere (Direct AirOnly real solution is taking CO2 out of atmosphere (Direct Air
Capture)Capture)
• METHANE OUTBREAKS can only be stopped by restoring the ArcticMETHANE OUTBREAKS can only be stopped by restoring the Arctic
sea ice; applying a technique to dispose of seabed methane; orsea ice; applying a technique to dispose of seabed methane; or
GEOENGINEERINGGEOENGINEERING

60. What can we do?What can we do?

61. Floating plastic islands
Seawater mist
Sulfur dioxide addition
Trillions of lenses
Floating plastic islands
Added iron to feed plankton
Geoengineering Proposals
from the New York
Times
Peter Fairly UEA
Geoengineering

62. MHF – title - 62
Poleward atmospheric Heat Flux and global heat balance

63. Direct air capture (DAC)Direct air capture (DAC)
• This is the only ultimate solution.This is the only ultimate solution.
• CO2 levels are already too high and emission reductions byCO2 levels are already too high and emission reductions by
themselves cannot be enough to keep warming below 2 C.themselves cannot be enough to keep warming below 2 C.
• Other carbon reduction methods have drawbacksOther carbon reduction methods have drawbacks
• Techniques so far are too expensive. Need a method costing lessTechniques so far are too expensive. Need a method costing less
than $40 per ton.than $40 per ton.
………… A new Manhattan ProjectA new Manhattan Project