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RISING SEAS & SOLUTIONS
.
- Paul H. Carr, Ph.D., IEEE Life Fellow
www.MirrorOfNature.org
2
British Data Echoes U.S. Climate Report
By REUTERS JAN. 26, 2015
--Last year tied with 2010 as the hottest on record, in...
Greenland’s melting glaciers are raising sea levels.
FLOOD HIGHTS FROM RECENT HURRICANES ARE ~ 10 FEET
RISING SEAS & SOLUTIONS
1. Sea levels rises are a Better Measure
of Global Warming than Air Temperature.
2. The Greenhouse...
• Melting Greenland
• Melting Antarctica
• Mountain Glaciers
• 50% Thermal
Expansion
SEA LEVEL RISES ARE A BETTER MEASURE ...
1880-1980: 0.3 C TEMP INCREASE
1980- 2012: 0.55 TEMPERATURE INCREASE
(Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K., 2010: G...
U.S. solar industry is creating new jobs at nearly 20 times
the rate of the overall economy.
19
The rate of sea
level increase
correlates with
the blue line of
the CO2 increase
that drives
Greenhouse
warming.
Sea le...
.
90% of our Planet’s Heat Content is in the Oceans
Oceanic heat sink.Evolution of the ocean heat content (OHC) at several depths of the global
ocean between 1980 and 2011.
A...
Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602)
Red: Univ. ...
GREENLAND IS MELTING: Reflecting snow replaced by absorbing
water & land. http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2010/06/viking...
Gravity Satellite Ice Sheet Mass Measurements
MELTING OF GREENLAND & ANTARCTICA IS RAISING SEA LEVELS FASTER
Greenland Ice...
16
Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State
University and an author of the last IPCC report
said, “It involves the physic...
Most recent prediction for 2100: 2 to 6 feet
A rising tide floats all boats.
Everyone should benefit
from increasing
economic prosperity.
22
“Felt Surreal” says
Jeff with his wife
Tracy in their garden
in Staines-upon-
Thames.
“Drowning World”
National Geograp...
TREADING WATER, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC, FEB 2015
CLIMATE CHANGE IS NOW A BUSINESS STORY
RISKY BUSINESS REPORT
RiskyBusiness.org is co-chaired by titans of American busines...
2. GREENHOUSE
WARMING &
AEROSOL COOLING
CORRELTAION BETWEEN TEMPAND CO2 INCREASE
1880 – 1980: CO2 increased 47 ppm.
1980 – 2010: CO2 increased 52 ppm.
Aerosols
27...
2014 CO2 levels
of 400 ppm are
120 ppm above
the pre-
industrial
average
1875
• Carbon
isotope ratios
indicate the
CO2 inc...
Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface.
2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere.
29
-Outgoing spectral radiance at the top of Earth's atmosphere showing the absorption at specific
frequencies and the princi...
1750-2005: Even if
the cloud albedo
effect is assumed to
have the maximum
cooling value, there
would still be a net
warmin...
Global Temperature Update Through 2012 by J. Hansen, M. Sato, R.
Ruedy
Aerosol pollution from coal burning in Beijing
World Health Organization safe level: 25 mg/m3
Aerosol level in Beijing: 50...
Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific
storm track using a multiscale global climate model.
By Yuan Wa...
• C02 CONCENTRATION IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS GREATER THAN THE SOUTHERN.
• TEMP. INCREASE, SINCE 1880, ...
The EXPLODING POPULATION OF 7 B IS INFLUENCING
OUR CLIMATE BY BURNING FOSSIL FUELS THAT EMIT
GREENHOUSE GASES: CARBON DIOX...
During the steepest warming, the CO2 released (dots) from the sea preceded the global
temperature rise (green line) by sev...
At present rate
of 2.5 ppm
rise per year,
humans are
increasing
CO2 at a rate
300 times
faster than
the recovery
from the ...
• Our present level of 400 ppm could reach ~ 1000 ppm by 2100.
• Arctic became ice-free 8 M years ago when CO2 = 300 to 45...
A darker Arctic is boosting global warming
From1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made
North Pole war...
PAST COLD ARCTIC PRESENT WARMER ARCTIC
Higher pressure sub-tropic constrained
the low-pressure arctic
Lower pressure diffe...
3. ADAPTATON &
NON-CO2 EMITTING
TECHNOLOGY
ADVANCES
TREADING WATER National Geographic Feb. 2015
Frank Behrens of Dutch Docklands, sees
profit not loss in climate change.
In ...
http://www.dutchdocklands.com/Development/United-States
This Dutch Docklands home could be adapted to build floating
class...
SOLUTIONS TO GOBAL
WARMING from CO2
Electric Cars powered by
• Windmills
• Solar Cells
• Nuclear Fission Power
Plants
Elec...
DECREASING COSTS
The cost of Solar PV electricity has come down to 7 cents per kWhr
The average cost of electricity in the...
Topaz Turns On 9 Million Solar Panels
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/topaz-turns-on-9-million-solar-panels
• N...
Windspire Vertical-
Axis, Grid-Tied
Wind Turbine
• Airfoils catch wind & spin the
rotor
• Whisper quiet.
• Annual output 2...
Tesla
Model S
All Electric
260 mile range.
2012 Chevy Volt:
90 miles/gal running quietly on 40 mile battery
40 miles/gal highway with gasoline generator.
2015 NISSAN
LEAF®
As low as:
$27,700*Net value
after
federal tax credit
106City MPGal
81 mi range.
®
Mitusbishi i
STORMS OF MY GRANDCHILDREN:
The Truth About the Coming Climate
Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity (2010)
By ...
The Coming Climate Crash:
Lessons for Climate Change in the 2008 Recession
By HENRY M. PAULSON Jr. Secretary of the Treasu...
RISING SEAS & SOLUTIONS
1. Sea levels rises are a Better Measure
of Global Warming than Air Temperature.
2. The Greenhouse...
Rising Seas & Solutions
Rising Seas & Solutions
Rising Seas & Solutions
Rising Seas & Solutions
Rising Seas & Solutions
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Rising Seas & Solutions

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The year 2014 tied with 2010 as the warmest year on record for the last century. The melting of Greenland, mountain glaciers, and thermal expansion is raising sea levels four times faster than in 1900. Sea level rises of 2 to 6 feet are predicted by the end of the century. Flood highs from hurricanes Sandy and Katrina were ~ 10 feet.

The article “Treading Water” in the February 2015 "National Geographic" tells how Dutch Docklands LLC sees profit not loss from rising sea levels. They are building floating homes in Miami, FL. A floating classroom could assure ASPEC’s long-term future. It would provide a place to meet in the event of flooding by the 10-foot ocean surges that accompany hurricanes.

Dr. Carr describes how increasing greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, trap the radiation that is warming our planet. Advances in non-carbon emitting energy sources can reduce global warming. Solar PV panels are now generating electricity at $0.07/kWhr, less than the national utility average of $0.12kWhr. Rising sea levels are a better measure of global warming than atmospheric temperature, as 90% of our planet’s heat content is in our oceans.

You can learn more at www.RiskyBusiness.org.

Published in: Environment
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Rising Seas & Solutions

  1. 1. RISING SEAS & SOLUTIONS . - Paul H. Carr, Ph.D., IEEE Life Fellow www.MirrorOfNature.org
  2. 2. 2 British Data Echoes U.S. Climate Report By REUTERS JAN. 26, 2015 --Last year tied with 2010 as the hottest on record, in a new sign of long-term global warming stoked by human activities, British researchers said, backing up American scientists’ findings of record-breaking heat in 2014. --With 2014, all of the 10 warmest years on record have been in this century.
  3. 3. Greenland’s melting glaciers are raising sea levels.
  4. 4. FLOOD HIGHTS FROM RECENT HURRICANES ARE ~ 10 FEET
  5. 5. RISING SEAS & SOLUTIONS 1. Sea levels rises are a Better Measure of Global Warming than Air Temperature. 2. The Greenhouse Effect Drives the Warming. 3. Advances in non-carbon emitting energy sources can reduce global warming
  6. 6. • Melting Greenland • Melting Antarctica • Mountain Glaciers • 50% Thermal Expansion SEA LEVEL RISES ARE A BETTER MEASURE OF GLOBAL WARMING THAN AIR TEMPERATURE. EARTH WILL CROSS DANGER TRESHOLD BY 2036 M. Mann. Scientific American, vol 310, April 2014 Faux Pause 6
  7. 7. 1880-1980: 0.3 C TEMP INCREASE 1980- 2012: 0.55 TEMPERATURE INCREASE (Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K., 2010: Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004.) LONG TERM CLIMATE AVERAGES REMOVE THE SHORT TERM WEATHER FLUCTUATIONS IS THE “FAUX PAUSE” STATISTICALLY AND CLIMACTICALLY SIGNIFICANT? OUR PRESENT DECADE HAS BEEN THE WARMEST IN CENTRURIES
  8. 8. U.S. solar industry is creating new jobs at nearly 20 times the rate of the overall economy.
  9. 9. 19 The rate of sea level increase correlates with the blue line of the CO2 increase that drives Greenhouse warming. Sea level rise is a proxy for global temperature, since it is due to thermal expansion (50%) and the melting of ice (50%) SEA LEVEL RISE IS A BETTER MEASURE OF GLOBAL WARMING THAN TEMPERATURE
  10. 10. . 90% of our Planet’s Heat Content is in the Oceans
  11. 11. Oceanic heat sink.Evolution of the ocean heat content (OHC) at several depths of the global ocean between 1980 and 2011. A Clement, and P DiNezio Science 2014;343:976-978 http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6174/976.full Published by AAAS 20 Most of the heat and temperature increase is 100 -700 meters below the surface
  12. 12. Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602) Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/). Present Sea level rise rate is 4 times that of 1900. Why? 1 ft./100 years. 7.5 in./100 years 3 in. /100 years
  13. 13. GREENLAND IS MELTING: Reflecting snow replaced by absorbing water & land. http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2010/06/viking-weather/essick-photography
  14. 14. Gravity Satellite Ice Sheet Mass Measurements MELTING OF GREENLAND & ANTARCTICA IS RAISING SEA LEVELS FASTER Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009 Greenland’s largest glacier is now flowing faster towards the sea 4 times faster than in the 1990s.. Since Sandy, 2012, Federal Coastal Flood Insurance is up 2X - 10X
  15. 15. 16
  16. 16. Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University and an author of the last IPCC report said, “It involves the physics of ice fracture that we really don’t understand. If the Thwaites Glacier breaks free from its rocky berth, that would liberate enough ice to raise sea level by three meters—nearly ten feet. The odds are in our favor that it won’t put three meters in the ocean in the next century,” says Alley. “But we can’t absolutely guarantee that. There’s at least some chance that something very nasty will happen.” 17
  17. 17. Most recent prediction for 2100: 2 to 6 feet
  18. 18. A rising tide floats all boats. Everyone should benefit from increasing economic prosperity.
  19. 19. 22 “Felt Surreal” says Jeff with his wife Tracy in their garden in Staines-upon- Thames. “Drowning World” National Geographic February 2015 INCREASED WEATHER EXTREMES WET AREAS ARE GETTING WETTER
  20. 20. TREADING WATER, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC, FEB 2015
  21. 21. CLIMATE CHANGE IS NOW A BUSINESS STORY RISKY BUSINESS REPORT RiskyBusiness.org is co-chaired by titans of American business and former government officials, including Michael Bloomberg, former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and hedge-fund billionaire Tom Steyer. The Risky Business report talked relatively little about science and more about what this whole threat is going to cost us. With its emphasis on the economic impact of climate change, it broke down each region and endangered economic sectors to assess the looming damage. And with this shift in focus — from the physics of climate change to its financial consequences — came a subtle yet perhaps significant change in media coverage.
  22. 22. 2. GREENHOUSE WARMING & AEROSOL COOLING
  23. 23. CORRELTAION BETWEEN TEMPAND CO2 INCREASE 1880 – 1980: CO2 increased 47 ppm. 1980 – 2010: CO2 increased 52 ppm. Aerosols 27 CAUSES
  24. 24. 2014 CO2 levels of 400 ppm are 120 ppm above the pre- industrial average 1875 • Carbon isotope ratios indicate the CO2 increase since1750 is from burning ~300 million yr old fossil fuels. 1. HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING 28 Little Ice Age
  25. 25. Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface. 2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere. 29
  26. 26. -Outgoing spectral radiance at the top of Earth's atmosphere showing the absorption at specific frequencies and the principle absorber CO2 at 16 microns. -The red curve shows the flux from a classic "blackbody" at 294°K (≈31°C≈69.5°F). Schmidt, G.A., 2010 J. Geophys. Res.,115, D20106, doi:10.1029/2010JD014287. 30
  27. 27. 1750-2005: Even if the cloud albedo effect is assumed to have the maximum cooling value, there would still be a net warming of the climate due to human activities. (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2007Report) Solar Irradiance increased by only 0.2% since 1750. 31
  28. 28. Global Temperature Update Through 2012 by J. Hansen, M. Sato, R. Ruedy
  29. 29. Aerosol pollution from coal burning in Beijing World Health Organization safe level: 25 mg/m3 Aerosol level in Beijing: 505 mg/m3 http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/news/10.1063/PT.5.4009?utm_source=Physics+Today&utm_medium=e mail&utm_campaign=5229780_Physics+Today%3a+The+week+in+Physics+12- 16+January&utm_content=$LINK_KEYWORD$&dm_i=1Y69,343BO,E1O2I6,B5VQT,1
  30. 30. Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model. By Yuan Wanga, et al. http://www.pnas.org/content/111/19/6894.abstract April 19, 2014 We demonstrate long-range transport of the Asian pollution, large resulting variations in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths; enhanced shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcings; and increased precipitation and poleward heat transport. The overall increased precipitation frlm intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols.
  31. 31. • C02 CONCENTRATION IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS GREATER THAN THE SOUTHERN. • TEMP. INCREASE, SINCE 1880, OF NORTHERN = 1.1 deg. C • TEMP. INCREASE OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE = 0.4 deg C HUMAN CO2 FOOTPRINT Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Aboard NASA’s Aquilla Satellite. 35
  32. 32. The EXPLODING POPULATION OF 7 B IS INFLUENCING OUR CLIMATE BY BURNING FOSSIL FUELS THAT EMIT GREENHOUSE GASES: CARBON DIOXIDE, CO2. 1. THE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING Emissions of the greenhouse gas, CO2, are increasing at a rate of 2.5 ppm per year. 2. CONTRAST THIS WITH SLOWER NATURAL PROCESSES 18K – 10K years ago, C02 increased at a rate 1/300th slower. 3. THE IMPACT OF CONTINUING CLIMATE CHANGE Melting of the Arctic is increasing our winter climate extremes. 36
  33. 33. During the steepest warming, the CO2 released (dots) from the sea preceded the global temperature rise (green line) by several centuries. CO2 RATE OF CHANGE is 1/300 of the PRESENT RISE. CO2 greenhouse effect drove the 3.5 C increase in average global temperature. Sea levels rose ~ 100 meters (~ 328 feet). Flood stories 4 M PEOPLE 7 B Ice Age Nature, 484, 49-54 (05 Apr 2012) CHANGES IN THE EARTH’S TILT & ORBIT TRIGGERD THE ICE AGE WARMING 37
  34. 34. At present rate of 2.5 ppm rise per year, humans are increasing CO2 at a rate 300 times faster than the recovery from the ice age 18,000 - 10,000 years ago. CO2 CONCENTRATIONS, HIGHEST (33%) IN 800,000 YRS, COULD REACH ~1000 PPM BY 21OO. Ice Age 38
  35. 35. • Our present level of 400 ppm could reach ~ 1000 ppm by 2100. • Arctic became ice-free 8 M years ago when CO2 = 300 to 450 ppm. • Antarctic melted ~ 40 M years ago, CO2 ~ 700 ppm -Earth was ice-free, sea levels 100s meters (~300 ft) higher. Dinosaur Extinction 65M Yr. BP Figure from Dr. James Hansen, NASA GISS 39
  36. 36. A darker Arctic is boosting global warming From1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth. http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014. ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS SATELITE PHOTO 40
  37. 37. PAST COLD ARCTIC PRESENT WARMER ARCTIC Higher pressure sub-tropic constrained the low-pressure arctic Lower pressure difference allows waves of arctic air to invade the South: Warmer & Colder Winters. Cold Air Oscillates South from the Arctic The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of our earth. Therefore the temperature and the accompanying pressure difference that used to keep arctic air up North comes South, bringing cold air to Atlanta & New Orleans. The Winters of our Discontent Charles H. Green, Scientific American, pgs 51-55, Dec.2012 41
  38. 38. 3. ADAPTATON & NON-CO2 EMITTING TECHNOLOGY ADVANCES
  39. 39. TREADING WATER National Geographic Feb. 2015 Frank Behrens of Dutch Docklands, sees profit not loss in climate change. In Miami, he is promoting a floating village with 20 private artificial islands, each with a sleek four bedroom villa, a sandy beach, a pool, palm trees and a dock large enough for a 80 ft yacht. The cost $12.5 million apiece. Each island island would be anchored to the bottom with a telescoping tether, similar to those that enable floating oil rigs to ride out the toughest hurricanes.
  40. 40. http://www.dutchdocklands.com/Development/United-States This Dutch Docklands home could be adapted to build floating classrooms at Eckerd College that would avoid the ~10 foot hurricane flooding.
  41. 41. SOLUTIONS TO GOBAL WARMING from CO2 Electric Cars powered by • Windmills • Solar Cells • Nuclear Fission Power Plants Electric cars get the equivalent of 100 miles per gallon.
  42. 42. DECREASING COSTS The cost of Solar PV electricity has come down to 7 cents per kWhr The average cost of electricity in the US is 12 cents/ kWhr, 19 cents in NH
  43. 43. Topaz Turns On 9 Million Solar Panels http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/topaz-turns-on-9-million-solar-panels • New grid-scale solar plants now deliver at $0.072/ kWh to $0.086/kWh when subsidies are excluded. • Efficient natural-gas-fired plants, costs $0.061/kWh to $0.127/kWh (with the higher end including the cost of CO2 capture). -160 kilometers NW of Los Angeles. -550 Megawatts, Cadmium- Telluride thin- film panels made by First Solar. -Warren Buffet financing
  44. 44. Windspire Vertical- Axis, Grid-Tied Wind Turbine • Airfoils catch wind & spin the rotor • Whisper quiet. • Annual output 2,000+ kWh • http://www.nelsonsmall.com/ alternative_energy/windspire. asp
  45. 45. Tesla Model S All Electric 260 mile range.
  46. 46. 2012 Chevy Volt: 90 miles/gal running quietly on 40 mile battery 40 miles/gal highway with gasoline generator.
  47. 47. 2015 NISSAN LEAF® As low as: $27,700*Net value after federal tax credit 106City MPGal 81 mi range. ® Mitusbishi i
  48. 48. STORMS OF MY GRANDCHILDREN: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity (2010) By James Hansen Legacy to our children and grandchildren.
  49. 49. The Coming Climate Crash: Lessons for Climate Change in the 2008 Recession By HENRY M. PAULSON Jr. Secretary of the Treasury under Pres. George W. Bush. Co-Author of www.RiskyBusiness.org JUNE 21, 2014 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/22/opinion/sunday/lessons-for-climate-change-in-the- 2008-recession.html “We’re staring down a climate bubble that poses enormous risks to both our environment and economy. The warning signs are clear and growing more urgent as the risks go unchecked. A tax on carbon emissions will unleash a wave of innovation to develop technologies, lower the costs of clean energy and create jobs as we and other nations develop new energy products and infrastructure. Climate change is the challenge of our time. We’ve seen and felt the costs of underestimating the financial bubble. Let’s not ignore the climate bubble.”
  50. 50. RISING SEAS & SOLUTIONS 1. Sea levels rises are a Better Measure of Global Warming than Air Temperature. 2. The Greenhouse Effect Drives the Warming. 3. Advances in non-carbon emitting energy sources can reduce global warming

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