RISING SEAS & SOLUTIONS
.
- Paul H. Carr, Ph.D., IEEE Life Fellow
www.MirrorOfNature.org

2
British Data Echoes U.S. Climate Report
By REUTERS JAN. 26, 2015
--Last year tied with 2010 as the hottest on record, in
a new sign of long-term global warming stoked by
human activities, British researchers said, backing up
American scientists’ findings of record-breaking heat in
2014.
--With 2014, all of the 10 warmest years on record
have been in this century.

Greenland’s melting glaciers are raising sea levels.

FLOOD HIGHTS FROM RECENT HURRICANES ARE ~ 10 FEET

RISING SEAS & SOLUTIONS
1. Sea levels rises are a Better Measure
of Global Warming than Air Temperature.
2. The Greenhouse Effect Drives the
Warming.
3. Advances in non-carbon emitting
energy sources can reduce global warming

• Melting Greenland
• Melting Antarctica
• Mountain Glaciers
• 50% Thermal
Expansion
SEA LEVEL RISES ARE A BETTER MEASURE OF GLOBAL WARMING THAN AIR TEMPERATURE.
EARTH WILL CROSS DANGER TRESHOLD BY 2036
M. Mann. Scientific American, vol 310, April 2014
Faux Pause
6

1880-1980: 0.3 C TEMP INCREASE
1980- 2012: 0.55 TEMPERATURE INCREASE
(Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K., 2010: Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004.)
LONG TERM CLIMATE AVERAGES REMOVE
THE SHORT TERM WEATHER FLUCTUATIONS
IS THE “FAUX PAUSE” STATISTICALLY AND CLIMACTICALLY SIGNIFICANT?
OUR PRESENT DECADE HAS BEEN THE WARMEST IN CENTRURIES

U.S. solar industry is creating new jobs at nearly 20 times
the rate of the overall economy.

19
The rate of sea
level increase
correlates with
the blue line of
the CO2 increase
that drives
Greenhouse
warming.
Sea level rise is a proxy for
global temperature, since
it is due to thermal
expansion (50%) and the
melting of ice (50%)
SEA LEVEL RISE
IS A BETTER MEASURE OF
GLOBAL WARMING
THAN TEMPERATURE

.
90% of our Planet’s Heat Content is in the Oceans

Oceanic heat sink.Evolution of the ocean heat content (OHC) at several depths of the global
ocean between 1980 and 2011.
A Clement, and P DiNezio Science 2014;343:976-978
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6174/976.full
Published by AAAS
20
Most of the heat and temperature increase is 100 -700 meters below the surface

Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602)
Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/).
Present Sea level rise rate is 4 times that of 1900. Why?
1 ft./100
years.
7.5 in./100 years
3 in. /100 years

GREENLAND IS MELTING: Reflecting snow replaced by absorbing
water & land. http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2010/06/viking-weather/essick-photography

Gravity Satellite Ice Sheet Mass Measurements
MELTING OF GREENLAND & ANTARCTICA IS RAISING SEA LEVELS FASTER
Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet
Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009
Greenland’s largest glacier is now flowing faster towards the
sea 4 times faster than in the 1990s..
Since Sandy, 2012, Federal Coastal Flood Insurance is up 2X - 10X

16

Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State
University and an author of the last IPCC report
said, “It involves the physics of ice fracture that
we really don’t understand. If the Thwaites
Glacier breaks free from its rocky berth, that
would liberate enough ice to raise sea level by
three meters—nearly ten feet. The odds are in
our favor that it won’t put three meters in the
ocean in the next century,” says Alley. “But we
can’t absolutely guarantee that. There’s at least
some chance that something very nasty will
happen.”
17

Most recent prediction for 2100: 2 to 6 feet

A rising tide floats all boats.
Everyone should benefit
from increasing
economic prosperity.

22
“Felt Surreal” says
Jeff with his wife
Tracy in their garden
in Staines-upon-
Thames.
“Drowning World”
National Geographic
February 2015
INCREASED
WEATHER
EXTREMES
WET AREAS
ARE GETTING
WETTER

TREADING WATER, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC, FEB 2015

CLIMATE CHANGE IS NOW A BUSINESS STORY
RISKY BUSINESS REPORT
RiskyBusiness.org is co-chaired by titans of American business and
former government officials, including Michael Bloomberg, former
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and hedge-fund billionaire Tom
Steyer.
The Risky Business report talked relatively little about science and
more about what this whole threat is going to cost us. With its emphasis
on the economic impact of climate change, it broke down each region
and endangered economic sectors to assess the looming damage. And
with this shift in focus — from the physics of climate change to its
financial consequences — came a subtle yet perhaps significant change
in media coverage.

2. GREENHOUSE
WARMING &
AEROSOL COOLING

CORRELTAION BETWEEN TEMPAND CO2 INCREASE
1880 – 1980: CO2 increased 47 ppm.
1980 – 2010: CO2 increased 52 ppm.
Aerosols
27
CAUSES

2014 CO2 levels
of 400 ppm are
120 ppm above
the pre-
industrial
average
1875
• Carbon
isotope ratios
indicate the
CO2 increase
since1750 is
from burning
~300 million yr
old fossil
fuels.
1. HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING
28
Little Ice Age

Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface.
2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere.
29

-Outgoing spectral radiance at the top of Earth's atmosphere showing the absorption at specific
frequencies and the principle absorber CO2 at 16 microns.
-The red curve shows the flux from a classic "blackbody" at
294°K (≈31°C≈69.5°F). Schmidt, G.A., 2010 J. Geophys. Res.,115, D20106, doi:10.1029/2010JD014287.
30

1750-2005: Even if
the cloud albedo
effect is assumed to
have the maximum
cooling value, there
would still be a net
warming of the
climate due to
human activities.
(UN Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change,
IPCC, 2007Report)
Solar Irradiance
increased by only 0.2%
since 1750.
31

Global Temperature Update Through 2012 by J. Hansen, M. Sato, R.
Ruedy

Aerosol pollution from coal burning in Beijing
World Health Organization safe level: 25 mg/m3
Aerosol level in Beijing: 505 mg/m3
http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/news/10.1063/PT.5.4009?utm_source=Physics+Today&utm_medium=e
mail&utm_campaign=5229780_Physics+Today%3a+The+week+in+Physics+12-
16+January&utm_content=$LINK_KEYWORD$&dm_i=1Y69,343BO,E1O2I6,B5VQT,1

Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific
storm track using a multiscale global climate model.
By Yuan Wanga, et al.
http://www.pnas.org/content/111/19/6894.abstract April 19, 2014
We demonstrate long-range transport of the Asian
pollution, large resulting variations in the aerosol
optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration,
and cloud and ice water paths; enhanced shortwave
and longwave cloud radiative forcings; and increased
precipitation and poleward heat transport.
The overall increased precipitation frlm intensification
of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols.

• C02 CONCENTRATION IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS GREATER THAN THE SOUTHERN.
• TEMP. INCREASE, SINCE 1880, OF NORTHERN = 1.1 deg. C
• TEMP. INCREASE OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE = 0.4 deg C
HUMAN CO2 FOOTPRINT
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Aboard NASA’s Aquilla Satellite.
35

The EXPLODING POPULATION OF 7 B IS INFLUENCING
OUR CLIMATE BY BURNING FOSSIL FUELS THAT EMIT
GREENHOUSE GASES: CARBON DIOXIDE, CO2.
1. THE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING
Emissions of the greenhouse gas, CO2, are increasing at a
rate of 2.5 ppm per year.
2. CONTRAST THIS WITH SLOWER NATURAL PROCESSES
18K – 10K years ago, C02 increased at a rate 1/300th slower.
3. THE IMPACT OF CONTINUING CLIMATE CHANGE
Melting of the Arctic is increasing our winter climate extremes.
36

During the steepest warming, the CO2 released (dots) from the sea preceded the global
temperature rise (green line) by several centuries. CO2 RATE OF
CHANGE is 1/300 of the PRESENT RISE.
CO2 greenhouse effect drove the 3.5 C increase in average global temperature.
Sea levels rose ~ 100 meters (~ 328 feet). Flood stories
4 M PEOPLE 7 B
Ice Age
Nature, 484, 49-54 (05 Apr 2012)
CHANGES IN THE EARTH’S TILT & ORBIT TRIGGERD THE ICE AGE WARMING
37

At present rate
of 2.5 ppm
rise per year,
humans are
increasing
CO2 at a rate
300 times
faster than
the recovery
from the ice
age 18,000 -
10,000 years
ago.
CO2 CONCENTRATIONS, HIGHEST (33%) IN 800,000 YRS,
COULD REACH ~1000 PPM BY 21OO.
Ice
Age
38

• Our present level of 400 ppm could reach ~ 1000 ppm by 2100.
• Arctic became ice-free 8 M years ago when CO2 = 300 to 450 ppm.
• Antarctic melted ~ 40 M years ago, CO2 ~ 700 ppm
-Earth was ice-free, sea levels 100s meters (~300 ft) higher.
Dinosaur Extinction 65M Yr. BP Figure from Dr. James Hansen, NASA GISS
39

A darker Arctic is boosting global warming
From1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made
North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth.
http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract
Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014.
ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS
SATELITE PHOTO
40

PAST COLD ARCTIC PRESENT WARMER ARCTIC
Higher pressure sub-tropic constrained
the low-pressure arctic
Lower pressure difference allows
waves of arctic air to invade the
South: Warmer & Colder Winters.
Cold Air Oscillates South from the Arctic
The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of our earth.
Therefore the temperature and the accompanying pressure difference that used to keep
arctic air up North comes South, bringing cold air to Atlanta & New Orleans.
The Winters of our Discontent Charles H. Green, Scientific American, pgs 51-55, Dec.2012
41

3. ADAPTATON &
NON-CO2 EMITTING
TECHNOLOGY
ADVANCES

TREADING WATER National Geographic Feb. 2015
Frank Behrens of Dutch Docklands, sees
profit not loss in climate change.
In Miami, he is promoting a floating village
with 20 private artificial islands, each with a
sleek four bedroom villa, a sandy beach, a pool,
palm trees and a dock large enough for a 80 ft
yacht. The cost $12.5 million apiece.
Each island island would be anchored to the
bottom with a telescoping tether, similar to
those that enable floating oil rigs to ride out the
toughest hurricanes.

http://www.dutchdocklands.com/Development/United-States
This Dutch Docklands home could be adapted to build floating
classrooms at Eckerd College that would avoid the ~10 foot hurricane
flooding.

SOLUTIONS TO GOBAL
WARMING from CO2
Electric Cars powered by
• Windmills
• Solar Cells
• Nuclear Fission Power
Plants
Electric cars get
the equivalent of
100 miles per
gallon.

DECREASING COSTS
The cost of Solar PV electricity has come down to 7 cents per kWhr
The average cost of electricity in the US is 12 cents/ kWhr, 19 cents in NH

Topaz Turns On 9 Million Solar Panels
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewables/topaz-turns-on-9-million-solar-panels
• New grid-scale solar plants now deliver at
$0.072/ kWh to $0.086/kWh when subsidies are excluded.
• Efficient natural-gas-fired plants, costs
$0.061/kWh to $0.127/kWh (with the higher end including the
cost of CO2 capture).
-160 kilometers NW of Los Angeles.
-550 Megawatts, Cadmium-
Telluride thin- film panels made by
First Solar.
-Warren Buffet financing

Windspire Vertical-
Axis, Grid-Tied
Wind Turbine
• Airfoils catch wind & spin the
rotor
• Whisper quiet.
• Annual output 2,000+ kWh
• http://www.nelsonsmall.com/
alternative_energy/windspire.
asp

Tesla
Model S
All Electric
260 mile range.

2012 Chevy Volt:
90 miles/gal running quietly on 40 mile battery
40 miles/gal highway with gasoline generator.

2015 NISSAN
LEAF®
As low as:
$27,700*Net value
after
federal tax credit
106City MPGal
81 mi range.
®
Mitusbishi i

STORMS OF MY GRANDCHILDREN:
The Truth About the Coming Climate
Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity (2010)
By James Hansen
Legacy to our
children and
grandchildren.

The Coming Climate Crash:
Lessons for Climate Change in the 2008 Recession
By HENRY M. PAULSON Jr. Secretary of the Treasury under Pres. George W. Bush.
Co-Author of www.RiskyBusiness.org JUNE 21, 2014
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/22/opinion/sunday/lessons-for-climate-change-in-the-
2008-recession.html
“We’re staring down a climate bubble that poses enormous risks to
both our environment and economy. The warning signs are clear and
growing more urgent as the risks go unchecked.
A tax on carbon emissions will unleash a wave of innovation to
develop technologies, lower the costs of clean energy and create jobs
as we and other nations develop new energy products and
infrastructure.
Climate change is the challenge of our time. We’ve seen and felt the
costs of underestimating the financial bubble. Let’s not ignore the
climate bubble.”

RISING SEAS & SOLUTIONS
1. Sea levels rises are a Better Measure
of Global Warming than Air Temperature.
2. The Greenhouse Effect Drives the
Warming.
3. Advances in non-carbon emitting
energy sources can reduce global warming