Hansen29 June2007

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James Hansen, NASA GISS live at the Zero Emissions Conference, Melbourne Australia
Sun, 2007-07-01 11:17 — matthew
James Hansen opened the Zero Emissions Conference to a full house at RMIT University yesterday in Melbourne, Australia

The Zero Emission Network and Beyond Zero Emissions have brought together a program of guest speakers from around the world on climate change science, zero emission renewable energy and successful campaigning methods at the Zero Emissions Conference in Melbourne.

James Hansen, speaking via conference link from Sweden, spoke about the latest scientific predictions on climate change.

Dr Hansen's slideshow

Audio now available

"This conference has been very successful, in educating many community leaders on the dangerous levels of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere now," said Matthew Wright, lead spokesman for Beyond Zero Emissions.

"It was fantastic to hear from energy experts from around the world," said Adrian Whitehead, covenor of Zero Emissions Network. "We need to raise awareness of the environmental crisis the human race is facing, and this weekend was a great start."

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Hansen29 June2007

  1. 2. <ul><li>Status of the Matter </li></ul><ul><li>1. A Knowledge Gap </li></ul><ul><li>- What is Understood (scientists) </li></ul><ul><li>- What is Known (public/policymakers) </li></ul><ul><li>2. The Climate Crisis </li></ul><ul><li>- Positive Feedbacks Predominate </li></ul><ul><li>- Climate Inertia  Pipeline Effect </li></ul><ul><li>Danger:Tipping Point  Different Planet </li></ul>
  2. 6. 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Time (Ma) 5 Global deep-sea foraminifera 18 O isotope records from 40 sites.  Temperatures apply to ice-free state, i.e., before Antarctic glaciation (~35 Mybp). Dashed blue bars are times of ephemeral ice or ice sheets smaller than at present. Solid bar indicates ice sheets of modern or greater size.
  3. 7. Proxy record of Plio-Pleistocene (3.5 million years) temperature and ice volume. Based on oxygen isotope preserved in shells of benthic (deep ocean dwelling) foraminifera.
  4. 9. CO 2 , CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, &quot;New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction&quot;, Earth and Planetary Science Letters , 203 , 829-843.
  5. 13. Proxy record of Plio-Pleistocene (3.5 million years) temperature and ice volume. Based on oxygen isotope preserved in shells of benthic (deep ocean dwelling) foraminifera.
  6. 14. CO 2 ,CH 4 and estimated global temperature (Antarctic Δ T/2 in ice core era) 0 = 1880-1899 mean. Source: Hansen, Clim. Change , 68 , 269, 2005.
  7. 16. 21 st Century Global Warming <ul><li>Climate Simulations for IPCC 2007 Report </li></ul><ul><li>► Climate Model Sensitivity 2.7-2.9ºC for 2xCO 2 </li></ul><ul><li>(consistent with paleoclimate data & other models) </li></ul><ul><li>► Simulations Consistent with 1880-2003 Observations </li></ul><ul><li>(key test = ocean heat storage) </li></ul><ul><li>► Simulated Global Warming < 1ºC in Alternative Scenario </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusion : Warming < 1ºC if additional forcing ~ 1.5 W/m 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Source: Hansen et al., to be submitted to J. Geophys. Res. </li></ul>
  8. 18. <ul><li>Metrics for “Dangerous” Change </li></ul><ul><li>Ice Sheet Disintegration: Global Sea Level </li></ul><ul><li>1. Long-Term Change from Paleoclimate Data </li></ul><ul><li>2. Ice Sheet Response Time </li></ul><ul><li>Extermination of Animal & Plant Species </li></ul><ul><li>1. Extinction of Polar and Alpine Species </li></ul><ul><li>2. Unsustainable Migration Rates </li></ul><ul><li>Regional Climate Disruptions </li></ul><ul><li>1. Increase of Extreme Events </li></ul><ul><li>2. Shifting Zones/Freshwater Shortages </li></ul>
  9. 19. SST in Pacific Warm Pool (ODP site 806B, 0°N, 160°E) in past millennium. Time scale expanded in recent periods. Data after 1880 is 5-year mean. Source: Medina-Elizalde and Lea, ScienceExpress, 13 October 2005;data for 1880-1981 based on Rayner et al., JGR , 108 , 2003, after 1981 on Reynolds and Smith, J. Climate , 7 , 1994. kyr Before Present Date
  10. 20. Increasing Melt Area on Greenland Satellite-era record melt of 2002 was exceeded in 2005. Source: Waleed Abdalati, Goddard Space Flight Center <ul><li>2002 all-time record melt area </li></ul><ul><li>Melting up to elevation of 2000 m </li></ul><ul><li>16% increase from 1979 to 2002 </li></ul>70 meters thinning in 5 years
  11. 21. Surface Melt on Greenland Melt descending into a moulin, a vertical shaft carrying water to ice sheet base. Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
  12. 22. Jakobshavn Ice Stream in Greenland Discharge from major Greenland ice streams is accelerating markedly. Source: Prof. Konrad Steffen, Univ. of Colorado
  13. 23. Greenland Mass Loss – From Gravity Satellite
  14. 24. Areas Under Water: Four Regions
  15. 26. Mt. Graham Red Squirrel
  16. 27. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Sources: Claire Parkinson and Robert Taylor
  17. 30. Outline of Solution <ul><li>1. Coal only in Powerplants w Sequestration </li></ul><ul><li>Phase-out old technology. Timetable TBD </li></ul><ul><li>2. Stretch Conventional Oil & Gas </li></ul><ul><li>Via Incentives (Carbon tax) & Standards </li></ul><ul><li>No Unconventional F.F. (Tar Shale, etc.) </li></ul><ul><li>3. Reduce non-CO 2 Climate Forcings </li></ul><ul><li>Methane, Black Soot, Nitrous Oxide </li></ul><ul><li>4. Draw Down Atmospheric CO 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural & Forestry Practices </li></ul><ul><li>Biofuel-Powered Power-Plants </li></ul>
  18. 32. Responsibility for CO 2 Emissions and Climate Change
  19. 33. <ul><li>Summary: Is There Still Time? </li></ul><ul><li>Yes, But: </li></ul><ul><li>Alternative Scenario is Feasible, </li></ul><ul><li>But It Is Not Being Pursued </li></ul><ul><li>Action needed now. </li></ul><ul><li> A decade of Business-as-Usual eliminates Alternative Scenario </li></ul>

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