February 2015 U.S. employment update and outlook

U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
January starts 2015 off strong with
257,000 new jobs
U.S. employment situation: January 2015 February 6, 2015

January 2015 employment summary
• After a resurgent November and December, the U.S. labor market reverted back to its 2014 rate of growth in January and added 257,000
net new jobs, bringing the 12-month running average to 267,250.
- Unemployment increased by 10 basis points to 5.7 percent. A 20-basis-point increase in labor force participation to 62.9 percent was a
contributor in pushing up unemployment, increasing the number of people looking for work.
- Total unemployment also rose by 10 basis points 11.3 percent, pushed up by the increase in labor force participation as well.
- Unemployment for college and high-school grads remains near cyclical lows (2.8 and 5.4 percent, respectively), but labor force
participation for both groups is at record lows with little sign of increase.
• Like total non-farm employment, the office-using industries reverted back to normal levels of growth in December, adding 71,000 jobs over
the course of the month.
- Due to strong performance in education, health, leisure and construction, the office-using industries contributed only 27.6 percent of
December’s job creation.
• Consumer confidence is back up and surpassed 100 points for the first time during the recovery. This has had a positive effect on other
indicators: personal consumption expenditures increased by 3.2 percent year-on-year in December to $442.9 billion.
• Texas, the Sunbelt and the West Coast continue to lead job growth: Dallas, Denver, Houston, Jacksonville, Orlando and Silicon Valley,
among other markets, all posted in excess of 3.0 percent year-on-year job creation.
• Improvements in the labor market have finally had a significant effect on the office sector. Over the course of 2014, occupancy growth has
surpassed 54.7 million square feet (highest in more than five years), pushing vacancy to 15.6 percent and placing upward pressure on
rents across markets.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

January starts off 2015 strong with 257,000 new jobs, while
revisions push November to highest monthly gain yet
360,000
226,000
243,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
106,000
122,000
221,000
183,000
164,000
196,000
360,000
226,000
243,000
96,000
110,000
88,000
160,000
150,000
161,000
225,000
203,000
214,000
197,000
280,000
141,000
203,000
199,000
201,000
149,000
202,000
164,000
237,000
274,000
84,000
166,000
188,000
225,000
330,000
236,000
286,000
249,000
213,000
250,000
221,000
423,000
329,000
257,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
1-monthnetchange
3

Unemployment up slightly to 5.7 percent, in part due to an
increase in the number of people looking for jobs
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
Unemploymentrate(%)
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
4

Job openings continue to rise and are consistently above pre-
recession peaks, approaching 5.0 million
5
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jobopenings(thousands)

-10.0
-8.6
-4.1
-3.0
0.5
4.0
4.0
6.0
6.7
12.7
18.0
22.0
26.0
37.0
39.0
39.0
45.9
46.0
49.7
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Government
Transportation and warehousing
Temporary help services
Mining and logging
Utilities
Other services
Nondurable goods
Information
Motor vehicles and parts
Wholesale trade
Durable goods
Manufacturing
Financial activities
Leisure and hospitality
Construction
Professional and business services
Retail trade
Education and health services
Health care and social assistance
1-month net change (thousands)
Industry gains much more uneven in January than in previous
months; education, health and retail lead
6
Education and health
Retail trade
PBS
All other subsectors
Top three
subsectors
responsible for
50.9 percent of
monthly
growth.

9.2
18.0
36.0
47.0
66.9
78.0
80.0
105.9
155.8
159.0
179.5
210.0
228.0
293.3
308.0
456.9
482.0
509.0
715.0
0 200 400 600 800
Utilities
Nondurable goods
Mining and logging
Information
Motor vehicles and parts
Other services
Government
Wholesale trade
Transportation and warehousing
Temporary help services
Durable goods
Manufacturing
Retail trade
Construction
Health care and social assistance
Education and health services
Professional and business services
12-month net change (thousands)
PBS
Education and health
Retail trade
Manufacturing
All other jobs
Year-over-year growth has been more consistent, with office-
using industries alone adding 921,000 jobs
7
Core subsectors added 74.4 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.

-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Change in '000s jobs
The private sector continues to drive job growth, with more
than 5.5 million jobs created over the past two years
Private sector hiring up 5.5
million since January 2013
Public sector hiring up 14,000
workers since January 2013
8

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Unemployment(%)
Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college
White-collar and high school-graduate unemployment stable;
white-collar essentially at saturation
2.8%
5.4%
9

Labor force participation in both segments has remained
largely flat and at record lows
10
54.0%
55.0%
56.0%
57.0%
58.0%
59.0%
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
70.0%
71.0%
72.0%
73.0%
74.0%
75.0%
76.0%
77.0%
78.0%
79.0%
80.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Highschoolgraduatelaborforceparticipationrate(%)
Collegegraduatelaborforceparticipationrate(%)
Bachelor's degree High school, no college

Goods-producing industries post 13th consecutive month of
aggregate job growth in January
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1-monthnetchange(thousands)
Goods-producing Service-providing
11

Tech rises to 7.1 percent at the end of 2014, while energy
employment is falling in line with decreasing oil prices
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through December 2014.
12
12-month%change(jobs)

Tech still leading; energy demonstrating first signs of decline in
response to falling prices
Year-on-year percent employment growth
13

For the first five weeks of 2015, the four-week moving average
of initial claims has remained at or below 300,000
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
14
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Claims
Initial claims 4-week moving average

0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Unemploymentrate(%)
Consumerconfidenceindex
Consumer confidence index
Unemployment rate
Consumer confidence surpassed 100 points for the first time in
January on the back of sustained improvements in fundamentals
Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics
15

0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Hiresandquits(thousands)
Hires Quits
Both hires and quits are on an upward trajectory, signaling
improved employee confidence in the labor market

Texas, Florida and West Coast markets continue to post fastest
job growth, led by Dallas
17
Denver
3.3%
Silicon Valley
4.0%
Jacksonville
3.7%
Orlando
4.3%
Dallas
4.4%
Houston
4.2%

Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still posting
job growth below 1.0 percent year-on-year, however
18
Washington,
DC
0.7%
Pittsburgh
1.1%
Westchester
County
0.2%
Philadelphia
0.8%
New Jersey
0.7%
Chicago
0.9%
Detroit
1.1%

Labor force participation rose by 20 basis points in January to
62.9 percent, pushing up unemployment
19
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
65.0%
66.0%
67.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Laborforceparticipationrate(%)

Similar to the official unemployment rate, total unemployment
nudged upward by 10 basis points to 11.3 percent
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
20

Strong performance in construction, education, health and leisure
pushed down office-using industries’ share of monthly growth
21

Previously lagging, financial services is becoming an
increasingly important contributor to office-using job growth
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
PBS represented 78.2 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.
In January 2015, it represented 54.9 of monthly growth.
22

For the first time in more than a year, temporary help services
registered a monthly contraction
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
1,800.0
2,000.0
2,200.0
2,400.0
2,600.0
2,800.0
3,000.0
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Monthlynetchangeinjobs(ths)
Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment
Temporaryemployment(ths)
23

©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
For more information, please contact:
Ben Breslau
Managing Director - Americas Research
Benjamin.Breslau@am.jll.com
John Sikaitis
Managing Director - Office and Local Markets Research
John.Sikaitis@am.jll.com
Phil Ryan
Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research
Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com
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February 2015 U.S. employment update and outlook

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