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Computational tools for drug
discovery
Akos Tarcsay
Challenges and Solutions
Motivation
Safety efficacy
https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.ijir.3901522
https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.ijir.3901522
Fate of drugs in the human body
https://doi.org/10.1038/nrd1032
Anti-targets
https://doi.org/10.1038/nrd1032
~20k non-modified (canonical) human proteins
1 target to engage with
Target, the William Tell’s challenge
https://doi.org/10.1038/nrd892
Rubik cube for medicinal chemists
- Medicinal chemistry optimization is
multi-dimensional problem
- Each chemical modification corresponds to a series
of biological activity changes
- Rubik’s cube has 43 252 003 274 489 856 000 (1019
)
different configurations
- All configurations can be solved in ~20 steps
- Druggable chemical space is ~1060
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drudis.2011.05.005
f(x)=y
The ultimate goal
Practice of in silico methods
https://doi.org/10.1038/nrd.2017.232
Challenge
https://doi.org/10.1038/nrd1549
Protein-ligand interaction
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drudis.2011.07.010
https://doi.org/10.1002/1521-3773(20020802)41:15<2644::AID-ANIE2644>3.0.CO;2-O
Protein-ligand interaction
Interactions
Scale
Ki or IC50 or EC50
M [mol/dm3] ΔG [kJ/mol] ΔG [kCal/mol] Affinity
0.1 100 mM -5,7 -1,4
Weak
0.01 10 mM -11,4 -2,7
0.001 1 mM -17,1 -4,1
0.0001 100 uM -22,8 -5,5
0.00001 10 uM -28,5 -6,8
Medium
1.00E-06 1 uM -34,2 -8,2
1.00E-07 100 nM -39,9 -9,5
Strong
1.00E-08 10 nM -45,6 -10,9
1.00E-09 1 nM -51,3 -12,3
1.00E-10 100 pM -57,0 -13,6
Very strong
1.00E-11 10 pM -62,8 -15,0
1.00E-12 1 pM -68,5 -16,4
Ki or IC50 or EC50
M [mol/dm3] ΔG [kJ/mol] ΔG [kCal/mol] Affinity
0.1 100 mM -5,7 -1,4
Weak
0.01 10 mM -11,4 -2,7
0.001 1 mM -17,1 -4,1
0.0001 100 uM -22,8 -5,5
0.00001 10 uM -28,5 -6,8
Medium
1.00E-06 1 uM -34,2 -8,2
1.00E-07 100 nM -39,9 -9,5
Strong
1.00E-08 10 nM -45,6 -10,9
1.00E-09 1 nM -51,3 -12,3
1.00E-10 100 pM -57,0 -13,6
Very strong
1.00E-11 10 pM -62,8 -15,0
1.00E-12 1 pM -68,5 -16,4
Scale
https://doi.org/10.1021/jm100112j
Ki of 1 nM.
Replacing the isopropyl group (marked in red) by hydrogen reduces the affinity to 39 μM.
https://doi.org/10.1021/jm100112j
Ki or IC50 or EC50
M [mol/dm3] ΔG [kJ/mol] ΔG [kCal/mol] Affinity
0.1 100 mM -5,7 -1,4
Weak
0.01 10 mM -11,4 -2,7
0.001 1 mM -17,1 -4,1
0.0001 100 uM -22,8 -5,5
0.00001 10 uM -28,5 -6,8
Medium
1.00E-06 1 uM -34,2 -8,2
1.00E-07 100 nM -39,9 -9,5
Strong
1.00E-08 10 nM -45,6 -10,9
1.00E-09 1 nM -51,3 -12,3
1.00E-10 100 pM -57,0 -13,6
Very strong
1.00E-11 10 pM -62,8 -15,0
1.00E-12 1 pM -68,5 -16,4
Scale
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3209665/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3209665/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3209665/
Non-additivity
https://doi.org/10.1021/jm100112j
Molecules are chameleons
https://pixabay.com/photos/chameleon-mimicry-green-557367/
The Nature of Chemistry
Environment: pH, solvent, …
Impacts:
- Tautomerism
- Ionization, microspecies
- Solubility
- Lipophilicity
By IconMark, PH from the Noun Project
Histidine, a simple amino acid
Strongest basic pKa: 9.44
Strongest acidic pKa: 1.85
Histidine, a simple amino acid
Basic pKa: 9.44, 6.61
Acidic pKa: 1.85, 12.94
Histidine, a simple amino acid
https://disco.chemaxon.com/calculators/demo/playground/
https://disco.chemaxon.com/calculators/demo/plugins/tautomers/
Tautomerization
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.jcim.0c00232
Tautomerization
effect
CBR14->CBR18: QM-based rule update
Calculated phys-chem properties
„The fundamental laws necessary for the
mathematical treatment of a large part of physics and
the whole of chemistry are thus completely known
„The fundamental laws necessary for the
mathematical treatment of a large part of physics and
the whole of chemistry are thus completely known, and
the difficulty lies only in the fact that application of
these laws leads to equations that are too complex to
be solved. „
(Paul Dirac, 1929)
Physics based approach
- Ligand only
QM: ESP, torsional scan, tautomers, interactions
MM: flexible-rigid alignment
- Flexible ligand and rigid protein
Docking, scoring functions
Levels of approximations
QM application: Halogen bond
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/jm3012068
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/jm3012068
QM application: Halogen bond
B3LYP, 6-311++ G(2d,2p) https://doi.org/10.1021/ml100016x
QM application: Site of metabolism prediction:SMARTCyp
https://doi.org/10.1021/ml100016x
QM application: Site of metabolism prediction:SMARTCyp
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/ci100436p
Docking
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12539-019-00327-w
Scoring
Validation
https://doi.org/10.1021/ci600426e
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10822-015-9883-y
Docking into MD frames: 5HT6
- Flexible ligand flexible protein
Induced fit docking
MD - Ensemble docking
Free energy perturbation
Free energy perturbation
Thermodynamic cycle https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-9608-7
Alchemical transformation
FEP +
- Hamiltonian replica exchange method
- region surrounding the protein binding pocket is “heated up”
- the rest of the system stays “cold”
- GPU calculation involving ~6000 atoms requires ~6h (4/day)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-9608-7
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-9608-7
FEP+ results
1. Availability of at least one high-quality crystal structure with
co-crystallized series ligand.
2. A reasonable expectation of a conserved binding mode across the
series.
3. Minimal tautomeric, ionization state, and stereochemistry uncertainties
across the series.
4. High reliability experimental binding data from the same assay for all
compounds.
5. Assay data and crystal structures are for the same protein construct.
Constraints
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-9608-7
Data driven approach
In God we trust, all others bring data.
William Edwards Deming
Trevor Hastie, Robert Tibshirani, Jerome Friedman
The Elements of Statistical Learning Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction
Drug discovery data is expensive
https://doi.org/10.1038/nrd4128
Drug discovery data is expensive
Matched Molecular Pairs
https://doi.org/10.1038/nrd4128
https://doi.org/10.1021/ci100258p
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjBRNeqaDJA
http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/acs.jmedchem.7b00935
Sharing confidential data via MMP
https://doi.org/10.1038/nrd4128
The formula
f(D)=y
Validation and error prediction
https://doi.org/10.1021/ci400084k
Model validation
Random
Time
Neighbor
Prospective
https://doi.org/10.1021/ci400084k
https://www.kaggle.com/alexisbcook/cross-validation
Cross validation
Z = (z1 , z2 , . . . , zN ) where zi = (xi , yi )
B times producing B bootstrap datasets with
replacement
S(Z) is any quantity computed from the data Z
Bootstrap methods
https://yashuseth.blog/2017/12/02/bootstrapping-a-resampling-method-in-statistics/
Conformal prediction
Proper
Training Set
Model Error model
Calibration
set
Error Prediction
Training Set
P(80%)
calibration
factor (ɑ)
Classification validation: confusion matrix
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12864-019-6413-7
P(A|B)=P(B|A)xP(A)/P(B)
99% sensitivity
99% specificity
Bayes theorem
P(A|B)=P(B|A)xP(A)/P(B)
99% sensitivity
99% specificity
0.5% positive cases
Bayes theorem
P(A|B)=P(B|A)xP(A)/P(B)
99% sensitivity
99% specificity
0.5% positive cases
P(TP|+)=0.99*0.005/[0.99*0.005+0.01*0.995]=33.2%
If the test is positive, still there is only 33.2% chance to be true positive.
1000 cases, 995 negative, 5 positive
995*0.01 = 10 false positive
5*0.99~5
Sum positive 15, true positive = 5 (33%)
Bayes theorem
Drug discovery data is expensive
Generating models on confidential data
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1610.05755.pdf
The formula
f(D)=y
Phys-chem: lipophilicity (logP/logD), pka,
solubility, donors, acceptors
Topological: polar surface are, ring count, bond
counts, fsp3, graph distance indices, donor count,
acceptor count
Descriptors
Linear fingerprint
Radial fingerprint
https://doi.org/10.1021/ci100050t
T= AND(A,B)/OR(A,B)
A=24, B:21, A&B:19
T=0.73
T>0.85 similar
A=40, B=30, A&B=30
T=0.75 (can be a substructure)
Similarity definitions: Tanimoto
https://doi.org/10.1021/ci100062n
Fingerprint comparison methods
CFP (linear)
Tanimoto
CFP (linear)
Euclidean
https://disco.chemaxon.com/madfast-demo
CFP (linear)
Tanimoto
CFP (linear)
Manhattan
https://disco.chemaxon.com/madfast-demo
CFP (linear)
Tanimoto
ECFP (raidal)
Tanimoto
https://disco.chemaxon.com/madfast-demo
808 x 977 M ~ 8 x 1011
dissimilarity
data points
https://chemaxon.com/poster/similarity-implicated-
exploration-of-the-fragment-galaxy
https://disco.chemaxon.com/products/madfast/latest//doc/basic-search-workflow.html
https://doi.org/10.1038/nchem.1243
- Linear regression (PLS, LASSO)
- Decision tree (CART) and Random forest
- Support Vector Machine
- Neural Network (Deep, Convolutional Neural
Network)
Model building
Decision tree (CART)
Decision tree (CART)
Depth
Node size
Random Forest
https://doi.org/10.1038/nmeth.4438
https://doi.org/10.1038/nmeth.4438
Support vector machine (SVM)
https://doi.org/10.1517/17460441.2014.866943
2D not separable problem
https://doi.org/10.1517/17460441.2014.866943
SVR
Neural networks
https://mattmazur.com/2015/03/17/a-step-by-step-backpropagation-example/, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drudis.2019.07.006
https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2015.00080
https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2015.00080
Hierarchical composition of complex features.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2015.00080
Feature Construction by Deep Learning.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2015.00080
https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2015.00080
ToxCast 21 challenge
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drudis.2020.07.001
Workflow overview
Training data
(sdf, with labelled
data)
Training
module
Build
- Descriptor generation
- Model building
- Validation
Model management
- Persistence
- Execution
New model
Icon by Aficons from Noun Project
https://disco.chemaxon.com/calculators/trainer-engine/
- Feature engineering
ChemAxon descriptors
User defined descriptors
- Model building
Type: regression, classification
Models: RF, SVR, GB, GC
Hyperparameter optimization: pre-optimized preset, optimizer
Precise automatic models: under the hood
Icon by modgekar from Noun Project
- Validation statistics and report
Training test set split
Retrospective accuracy
- Reliability
- Applicability domain: most similar structures
- Prediction error: Conformal prediction
- Overfitting
- Scramble Y
Quality assessment
Application Study on ChEMBL
Dataset: Journal of Cheminformatics volume 9, Article number: 45 (2017)
https://jcheminf.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13321-017-0232-0
- 163 ChEMBL targets
- Data points in range: 500-4703 per target
- 10-90% test-training set split
- Target pAct
- Pearson, RMSE
Test set results
Pearson (R) RMSE (pAct)
Average 0.804 0.671
Median 0.817 0.672
Count 163 163
STDev 0.071 0.100
Min 0.569 0.421
Max 0.936 1.030
Test set results
hERG Random Forest model
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41573-019-0024-5
Challenge of data volume
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drudis.2019.02.013
Fast similarity search
Specs:
- Using MadFast dev version
- machine: a single Amazon EC2 x1.16xlarge instance
(976 GiB RAM, 64 cores, 2T SSD, $6.7 / h on-demand)
- dataset: Enamine Real 2019q34, 1.2B molecules,
- fingerprint: CFP7, 512 bit
Importing:
- importing time was 6h 16m (ran concurrently with an
ECFP import, using half of the cores)
- result binary blob: 167 GiB
Server startup
- 448 s (~7.5 min) to read 167 GiB to memory (~380 MB/s
throughput)
- Of which 169 s for mols, 74 s for ids, 203 s for fingerprints
Fast similarity search Dissim limit Hit count limit Runs Avg search time
0.4 1 500 0.45 s
0.4 9 500 0.96 s
0.4 81 500 1.16 s
0.4 729 500 1.25 s
0.4 2187 500 1.26 s
0.4 6561 500 1.42 s
0.4 15000 500 1.89 s
1.0 1 50 0.61 s
1.0 9 50 0.98 s
1.0 81 50 1.29 s
1.0 729 50 1.39 s
1.0 2187 50 1.65 s
1.0 6561 50 3.22 s
1.0 15000 50 9.67 s
- Pre-screen
Fingerprint match all query bits present in target
Descriptor screen (Mw, counts)
- Graph isomorph check
A graph S is a subgraph of a graph G if S is isomorphic to a
subgraph of G (Ullmann, VF2, VF2+)
Substructure search
Tutorials in Chemoinformatics, 395-448 John Wiley & Sons Ltd, Chichester, UK, 2017; https://doi.org/10.1186/1758-2946-4-13
● Data set: The Enamine library containing 1.2 billion structures was imported in the database cluster.
● Hardware:
○ Citus cluster was set up in AWS to use a distributed PostgreSQL database.
○ The cluster included one coordinator node and 20 worker nodes.
■ Coordinator node was installed on a t2.xlarge type EC2 instance was used (4 cores, 16 GiB memory)
■ Worker nodes were installed on c5a.4xlarge type instances (16 cores and 32 GiB memory per instance)
● Data upload and chemical indexing:
○ Upload of the data took ~12h;
○ Chemical index creation with JChem PostgreSQL Cartridge: 19.3h
● Search types:
○ Full structure, substructure and similarity search, as well as different combined queries were used with one, two or
three additional properties.
○ The number of records returned by the queries was limited to return only the top 100 results.
JChem PostgreSQL cartridge test runs
Drug design
Array of services
- Data access
- Preprocessed data
MMPA
- Derived models
QSAR
Docking, AI, Machine Learning
Gather information
Dynamic
Design Hub
Gather information
Design Hub
Design cockpit
Summary
● Complexity of the human body
○ Single target to interact
○ Multiple targets to avoid
● Complexity of the binding interactions
○ Influence of small structural changes
○ Balancing speed and accuracy
○ Need for structural information
● Pitfalls of machine learning
○ Validation strategy
○ Overfitting
● Size of chemical space
○ Searching in the (multi)billion chemical space
● Accessibility
○ Connecting all the models with designers and medicinal chemists
Challenges
„ Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful. ”
Box, G. E. P., and Draper, N. R., (1987), Empirical Model Building and Response Surfaces
John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY.
Akos Tarcsay
atarcsay@chemaxon.com

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