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Special report-28-jan-2019-epic-research
1. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
28–JAN-2019
Global markets at a glance
The S&P 500 edged higher but the Dow closed nominally
lower on Thursday as lingering anxieties about slowing
global growth and unresolved trade disputes undercut a
spate of strong earnings, while chipmakers rallied to give
the Nasdaq a solid gain.Fourth-quarter earnings continued
to be generally positive, but U.S. Commerce Secretary
Wilbur Ross’ comments that the United States and China
were “miles and miles” from reaching a trade agreement
curbed investor enthusiasm.The Dow Jones Industrial
Average fell 22.38 points, or 0.09 percent, to 24,553.24, the
S&P 500 gained 3.63 points, or 0.14 percent, to 2,642.33
and the Nasdaq Composite added 47.70 points, or 0.68
percent, to 7,073.46.
Asian stocks inched higher on Friday, buoyed by gains in US
technology shares, but gains were capped by worries over
slowing growth in Europe and caution ahead of several key
events next week including US-China trade talks.MSCI’s
broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged
up 0.2 percent. The index was headed for a loss of 0.1
percent this week. Australian stocks climbed 0.5 percent,
South Korea’s KOSPI added 0.7 percent. Japan’s Nikkei
advanced 1 percent.Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive
opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 56.5 points
or 0.52 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,942-l
PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDOFF
Indian benchmark indices witnessed a volatile trading
session and ended the day in red after witnessing a sharp
selloff in the second half of the session.Zee Entertainment
Enterprises & DishTV saw massive short buildup with both
the stocks tumbling over 30% during today's trade. Nifty
Midcap reeled under selling pressure throughout the day,
closing ~1.5% lower, while Nifty IT gained upward
momentum, closing ~0.6% higher.The market breadth
ended in favor of declines with the advance/decline ratio at
1:3x. Nifty and Bank Nifty futures added fresh short
buildup as the indices continued to witness selling pressure
at higher levels.
Index stats
The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in
dices performed as follow; Commodities[-41.75pts],
Consumption[-111.20pts],PSE[-17.75pts],CPSE[-
11.55pts],Energy[-20.35ts],FMCG[-98.7pts],Auto[-
277.45pts],Pharma[-3.5Pts],IT[+67.45pts],Metal[-
35.95pts],Realty[-10.55pts], Fin Serv sector[-61.55pts].
World Indices
Index Value % Change
DJI 24655 -0.17
S&P500 2664 +0.85
NASDAQ 7164 +1.29
FTSE100 6809 -0.14
NIKKEI 20679 -0.46
HANG SENG 27660 +0.33
Top Gainers
Company CMP Change % Chg
Bharti Infratel 279.75 16.75 6.37
HCL Tech 969.4 22.95 2.42
Yes Bank 219.6 4.2 1.95
Bharti Airtel 307.5 5.85 1.94
Cipla 507.65 6.95 1.39
Top Losers
Company CMP Change % Chg
Zee Entertain 318.4 -115.45 -26.61
Maruti Suzuki 6,513.40 -527.2 -7.49
UltraTechCement 3,510.80 -279.9 -7.38
Hero Motocorp 2,670.15 -120.05 -4.3
Indiabulls Hsg 744.5 -29 -3.75
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
CESCVENT 548 -346.25 -40.08
DALBHARAT 995.55 47.4 5
LIQUIDETF 1,000.01 -0.02 0
SAGARDEEP 99.9 0 0
REFEX 25.9 -1.25 -4.83
Indian Indices
Company CMP Change % Chg
NIFTY 10780 -69.3 -0.64
SENSEX 36025 -169.56 -0.47
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW
Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg
21STCENMGM 21.35 0.35 1.61
ABGSHIP 1.85 -0.05 -2.63
ADVENZYMES 155 -4.5 -2.81
AIFL 19.25 -1 -4.94
AKSHOPTFBR 21.9 -0.55 -2.43
2. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
28–JAN-2019
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]
REPCOHOME
Stock has given the breakout of the neckline of the double
bottom pattern but can not sustain at upper level .we
have seen the weakness on chart We recommend sell
below 405 for the target of 400/390 with the stop loss of
415
MACRO NEWS
ď‚· India's economy is expected to grow at 7.4 percent
during 2018-19 and improve to 7.6 percent in the next
fiscal, said a UN report on Wednesday. The United
Nations' World Economic Situation and Prospects
(WESP) 2019 report also expects India's gross domestic
product (GDP) to expand by 7.4 percent in 2020-
21."Growth continues to be underpinned by robust
private consumption, a more expansionary fiscal
stance and benefits from previous reforms," said the
report.
ď‚· Oil prices edged lower on Friday as a surprise increase
in US inventories offset support from the threat of
lower production in Venezuela. International Brent
crude oil futures were at $61.01 a barrel at 0124 GMT,
down 8 cents their last settlement. Brent futures
closed down 0.1 percent in the previous session.US
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at
$53.08 per barrel, down 6 cents from their last
settlement. WTI futures closed up 1 percent on
RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]
1. Titan [FUTURE ]
TITAN -In Titan on daily chart as well as weekly we have
seen that Buying in this stock by traders as well as investors
in last week .Reason behind that quarterly result awaited in
this week & also from technical aspect stock now moving
towards to break its previous highs.Ou recommendation is
to Buy stock target will be 1000/1030 SL below 940 .
2. SIEMENS [FUTURE]
Stock siemens near to its resistense level 1075. If resistense
level breakout we get then we expect move of 100-150
points in up side . In last week we have seen that stock is
traded in a particular range . Derivative data also suggest
that traders are bullish on this stock .Our recommendation is
to buy the stock in the range of 1010 Target 1020/1030 Sl
990
3. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
28–JAN-2019
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION
Symbol Optio
n
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
BANKNIFTY CE 27,500 67.1 4,33,611 12,05,360
BANKNIFTY CE 27,600 45 3,79,214 3,65,140
BANKNIFTY CE 27,700 31.5 3,77,611 2,86,520
YESBANK CE 230 3.4 21,560 49,94,500
YESBANK CE 240 1.95 19,536 51,85,250
RELIANCE CE 1,260 11.2 18,288 14,64,500
MARUTI CE 7,200 6.25 17,559 1,84,950
RELIANCE CE 1,280 5.4 16,348 18,21,000
MARUTI CE 9,000 111.5 5,823 2,83,500MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION
Symbol Optio
n
Type
Strike
Price
LTP Traded
Volume
(Contracts)
Open
Interest
BANKNIFTY PE 27,000 127 4,76,145 8,74,820
NIFTY PE 10,800 87.2 2,95,042 34,63,575
BANKNIFTY PE 27,200 196 2,87,790 3,05,460
YESBANK PE 220 5.9 17,874 16,94,000
MARUTI PE 7,000 552.05 17,759 1,04,025
MARUTI PE 6,500 153 17,592 57,900
RELIANCE PE 1,240 11.1 16,518 9,25,000
MARUTI PE 6,400 115 13,885 89,550
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS
BUY OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
NET AMOUNT
INDEX FUTURES 40571 2841.94 44691 3352.85 477288 37690.41 -510.9057
INDEX OPTIONS 2532804 146966.55 2513341 146042.19 940726 71021.52 924.3648
STOCK FUTURES 221190 12955.59 211091 12384.52 1440158 87180.18 571.0714
STOCK OPTIONS 155088 9148.69 154144 9095.22 197885 11532.77 53.4624
1037.9929
SELL
STOCKS IN NEWS
IDBI Bank: Bank approved in-principle, proposal to
reinitiate divestment process of IDBI stake in IDBI Federal
Life Insurance.
Automotive Stampings Q3: Loss at Rs 5.7 crore versus
loss Rs 11.8 crore; revenue rises to Rs 103.7 crore versus
Rs 94.3 crore YoY.
NIFTY FUTURE NIFTY -On daily & weekly chart we have
identify that Head & Shoulder pattern is forming at the
top . Head & shoulder & for a short term forming
Raising wedge pattern in technical term bearish reversal
pattern .Nifty struggling from many weeks to breach the
resistense level of 11000.Closing of nifty in this week
below 200 EMA & 100 EMA & RSI also showing
downwards movement . Our Recommendation is to sell
nifty for targets 10570/10500 Sl 10920 .Upcoming week
is so important for the market because Govermnent is
going to present Interium Budget on FEB,1
INDICES R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2
NIFTY 10998 10889 10822 10714 10647
BANKNIFTY 27586 27350 27198 26962 26809
4. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
28–JAN-2019
COMMODITY ROUNDUP
Gold struggled to build on the overnight attempted rebound
and remained under some selling pressure for the second
consecutive session.The precious metal failed to capitalize
on the early uptick to the $1285 area, with a combination of
negative forces contributing to the prevalent weaker
sentiment for the fifth session in the previous six.After
yesterday's volatile swing in the US equities, signs of
stability returning back to the global financial markets
dented demand for traditional safe-haven assets and
prompting some selling around the precious metal.This
coupled with some buying seen around the US Dollar,
despite a weaker tone around the US Treasury bond yields,
exerted some additional downward pressure on the dollar-
denominated commodity.However, the partial US
government shutdown and dovish Fed expectations might
keep a lid on any runaway rally for the greenback and
should help limit any sharp downfall for the non-yielding
yellow metal.Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a
strong follow-through selling before confirming that the
commodity might have already topped out near the key
$1300 psychological mark and positioning for any further
depreciating move.
Oil prices declined on Thursday on lingering concerns that
slowing global economic growth may limit fuel demand and
after a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories.International
Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $60.90 a barrel at
0745 GMT, down 24 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last
settlement.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude
futures CLc1 were at $52.44 per barrel, 18 cents lower from
their last close."The crude market is now focussing on
global growth concerns primarily ... It looks to be viewing
inventory readings (as) secondary," said Hue Frame,
portfolio manager at Frame Funds in Sydney."The IMF
downgrading 2019/20 and the continued rhetoric from
Davos reiterating that they expect global growth to slow
down over the next two years is providing selling pressure
in oil," Frame said.Earlier this week, the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its world economic growth
forecasts for 2019 and 2020, due to weakness in Europe and
some emerging markets. leaders and top executives are
meanwhile meeting in Davos, Switzerland, to discuss how to
steer policy amid worries of slowing economic growth,
damaging trade wars and Brexit. market sentiment was also
weakened by a surprise increase in U.S. crude inventories
after refineries cut output, data from industry group the
American Petroleum Institute showed on Wednesday.
RECOMMENDATIONS
GOLD
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GOLD ABOVE 32200 TGT 32250/32300 SL BELOW
32100
SELL GOLD BELOW 32000 TGT 31950/31900 SL ABOVE
32100
SILVER
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY SILVER ABOVE 39200 TGT 39250/39300 SL BELOW
39050
SELL SILVER BELOW 39000 TGT 38900/38700 SL ABOVE
39200
5. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
28–JAN-2019
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value % Change
Barley 1941 -1.27
Castor Seed 5348 1.44
Chana 4198 -1.85
Coriander 6167 -2.74
Cotton Seed Oilcake 1930 -1.43
Guar Seed 10 MT 4348 0.24
Jeera 17490 -0.51
Mustardseed 3959 0.61
Soy Bean 3466 0.7
Turmeric 6626 0.18
RECOMMENDATIONS
GUARGUM5
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GUARGUM FEB ABOVE 8650 TARGET 8665/8685/8710
SL 8490
SELL GUARGUM FEB BELOW 8600 TARGET
8585/8560/8540 SL 8660
DHANIYA
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY DHANIYA APR ABOVE 6680 TARGET 6665/6640/6620
SL 6740
SELL DHANIYA APR BELOW 6620 TARGET 6605/6580/6560
SL 6680
The government is planning to link 22,000 mandis across
the country with the National Agriculture Market (e-NAM),
an online trading platform for agricultural commodities by
2021-22, Union Agriculture Minister said. Already 585
mandis have been linked with e-NAM.The minister said that
the government is implementing several programs to
develop the agricultural sector.The budgetary outlay of the
Agriculture Ministry has been increased to Rs 2,11,694
crore during 2014-19, to develop and implement schemes
to improve the farmers' situation in the countryPradhan
Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana' is one such scheme which aims to
reduce the risks associated with agriculture, is being
implemented across the country.
With an expected 10% shortfall in the production of Pulses
this year, the prices are likely to shoot up. Retail prices of
Moong and Tur have already jumped Rs 4-10 a kg in the
past 15 days.In 2018-19, the production is likely to be 22
million tonnes, just enough to meet India’s requirement of
25 million tonnes, with a buffer stock of 36 lakh
tonnes.Area under cultivation of kharif Pulses (October-
March) has dropped from 157 lakh hectares to 149 lakh
hectares till last week. Ground reports also suggest a
downfall in the production of rabi (June-September) Pulses.
Cold waves and untimely rains may further damage the
standing crop.There had been a bumper crop of Pulses in
the past two seasons which prompted India to cut down on
imports as well as export the excess quantity. In 2016-17,
India produced 23.13 million tonnes of Pulses, followed by
an even better crop size of 25.23 million tonnes in 2017-18.
India's crude oil production declined 4.3% to 2.86 million
tonnes in December 2018 over December 2017.
Crude oil output of ONGC fell 5.4% to 1.76 million tonnes,
while that of Oil India declined 4.7% to 0.27 million tonnes.
6. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
28–JAN-2019
RBI Reference Rate
Currency Rate Currency Rate
Rupee- $ 71.09 Yen 64.8
Euro 80.6425 GBP 92.5775
USD/INR
TRADING STRATEGY:
USD/INR
BUY USDINR FUTURE ABOVE 71.20 TARGET 71.30 71.4 SL 71
SELL USDINR FUTURE BELOW 69.95 TARGET 69.85 69.75 SL
71.15
GBP/INR
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GBPINR FUTURE ABOVE 92.8 TARGET 92.9 93 SL 92.6
SELL GBPINR FUTURE BELOW 92.75 TARGET 92.65 92.55 SL
92.95
The euro fell on Thursday ahead of a European Central
Bank meeting in which policymakers may express caution
about slowing economic growth.The ECB is expected to
reaffirm its plan to raise interest rates by the end of the
year but traders will focus on how explicitly, if at all, the
central bank acknowledges the slow-downThe euro has
lost around 1.6 percent of its value over the last two weeks
as investors bet the ECB will keep monetary policy
accommodative for an extended period.If recent weaker-
than-expected economic activity in Germany and France
leads ECB President Mario Draghi to point to a potentially
longer lasting slowdown, that could hurt the euro."We see
a risk of modest dovish bias from Draghi today given the
long stream of the soft euro zone data and look for the
euro to test $1.1310," said ING FX strategist Petr Krpata.At
0830 the euro was down 0.2 percent at
$1.1355 EUR=EBS .Germany, France and Italy, the euro
zone's biggest economies, barely grew in the fourth
quarter and French business activity fell unexpectedly this
month, a survey showed on Thursday. ECB holds its first
meeting of the year at a time when concerns are also
growing about global trade tensions and Brexit.Sterling
traded marginally lower at $1.3043, hovering near highs
last seen in mid-November in a sign traders expect Britain
to avoid a chaotic exit from the European Union.Some
analysts expect limited upside for sterling. Philip Wee,
currency strategist at DBS says that most of the gains in the
pound are due to the unwinding of short positions. He sees
sterling capped in the range of $1.3170-1.3240
The U.S. dollar pushed higher against a basket of its rivals
on Thursday but gains were held in check amid concerns
over global growth, the U.S. government shutdown and
the ongoing U.S.-China trade war."Trade tensions are the
most dominant factor for investor sentiment right now and
will drive market flows," said Nick Twidale, chief operating
officer at Rakuten Securities.Twidale added that investor
risk appetite will only improve once concerns over the
partial U.S. government shutdown and trade tensions fade.
7. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
28–JAN-2019
Date
Commodity/
Currency Pairs
Contract Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
25/1/19 NCDEX DHANIYA APR BUY 6700
6715/6740/67
60
6640 NOT EXECUTED
25/1/19 NCDEX DHANIYA APR Sell 6620
6605/6580/65
60
66680 TARGET
25/1/19
NCDEX
GUARGUM5
FEB BUY 8750
8765/8785/88
10
8690 NOT EXECUTED
25/1/19
NCDEX
GUARGUM5
FEB SELL 8700
8685/8660/86
40
88760 NOT EXECUTED
25/1/19 MCX GOLD FEB BUY 32200 32250/32300 32100 NOT EXECUTED
25/1/19 MCX GOLD FEB SELL 32000 31950/31900 32100 NOT EXECUTED
25/1/19 MCX SILVER MAR BUY 39200 39250/39300 39050 NOT EXECUTED
25/1/19 MCX SILVER MAR SELL 39000 38900/38800 39200 TARGET HIT
Date Scrip
CASH/
FUTURE/
OPTION
Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark
25/1/19 NIFTY FUTURE BUY 10850 10920/10970 10750 OPEN
25/1/19 BIOCON FUTURE BUY 670 675/680 660 OPEN
25/1/19 SIEMENS FUTURE BUY 1055 1065/1070 1030 NOT EXECUTED
25/1/19 REPOHOME CASH SELL 405 400/395 415 OPEN
8. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Special Report
28–JAN-2019
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Disclaimer
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
9:45 am Markit manufacturing index flash Nov. -- 55.7
9:45 am Markit services index flash Nov. -- 54.8
TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS
THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN COULD DELAY THE RELEASE OF SOME DATA THIS WEEK
MONDAY, JAN. 28
8:30 am Chicago Fed national activity index Dec. -- 0.22
TUESDAY, JAN. 29
8:30 am Advance trade in goods* Dec. -- N/A
9 am Case-Shiller house prices Nov. -- 5.5%
10 am Consumer confidence index Jan. 124.0 128.1
10 am Homeownership rate -- 64.4%
WEDNESDAY, JAN. 30
8:15 am ADP employment Jan. -- 271,000
8:30 am Gross domestic product* Q4 2.6% 3.4%
10 am Pending home sales Dec. -- -0.7%
2 pm FOMC announcement 2.25-2.5% 2.25-2.5%
2:30 pm Jerome Powell press conference
THURSDAY, JAN. 31
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 1/1926 214,000 199,000
8:30 am Employment cost index Q4 0.8% 0.8%
8:30 am Personal income* Dec. 0.5% 0.2%
8:30 am Consumer spending* Dec. 0.3% 0.4%
8:30 am Core inflation* Dec. 0.2% 0.1%
9:45 am Chicago PMI Jan. -- 65.4
FRIDAY, FEB. 1
8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls Jan. 177,000 312,000
8:30 am Unemployment rate Jan. 3.9% 3.9%
8:30 am Average hourly earnings Jan. 0.2% 0.4%
9:45 am Markit manufacturing PMI Jan. -- 54.9
10 am ISM manufacturing index Jan. 54.3% 54.1%
10 am Construction spending* Dec. -- N/A
10 am Consumer sentiment index Jan. 90.8 90.7
Varies Motor vehicle sales Jan. 17.2 mln 17.5 mln