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DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
29 January 2016
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1
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Hotline: +91 731 664 2300
Alternate: +91 731 664 2320
Or give us a missed call at
026 5309 0639
Our Presence
YOURMINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
APR 8020 8360 8004 8100 -1.27 10905
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
7949
SUPP. 2
7799
PIVOT
8155
Turmeric short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8305
RES. 2
8511
CORIANDER
APR 6105 6405 6105 6275 -0.82 4790
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
6118
SUPP. 2
5962
PIVOT
6262
Coriander short term
trend is bearish and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
6418
RES. 2
6562
GUARGUM
FEB 5790 5900 5760 5850 +0.34 12323
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
5773
SUPP. 2
5697
PIVOT
5837
Guargum short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
5913
RES. 2
5977
CASTORSEED
FEB - - - - - -
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
-
SUPP. 2
-
PIVOT
-
-
RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
-
RES. 2
-
Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED - - -
CHANA 4242 4255 -0.35
CORIANDER 6275 6327 -0.82
GUARGUM 5850 5830 +20
JEERA 13480 13335 +1.09
MUSTARD
SEED
3883 3865 +0.47
SOYABEAN 3794 3720 +1.99
TURMERIC 8100 8204 -1.27
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
CHANA 20-04-2016 4243.00 -17.00 -0.40%
BARLEY 20-04-2016 1417.00 -5.50 -0.39%
TURMERIC 20-04-2016 8160.00 -30.00 -0.37%
CORIANDER 20-04-2016 6311.00 -23.00 -0.36%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE CHANGE %
SOYABEAN 19-02-2016 3794.00 75.00 2.02%
JEERA 18-03-2016 13500.00 190.00 1.43%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
19-02-2016 2019.00 21.00 1.05%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED
20-04-2016 3888.00 33.00 0.86%
Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
India's mustard output is expected to grow for the first time in three years
this season, government estimates show, as falling temperatures, light rains
and the absence of crop-damaging frost raise farmers' hopes after two years
of drought.Early projections by the six biggest producing states, which
account for more than 80 per cent of the oilseed's output, indicate a gain of
about 15 per cent in output. That is not, however, expected to eat into
India's vegetable oil imports, which will continue to rise as the population
expands.Edible oil traders have been awaiting for news on India's output of
mustard - also loosely referred to as rapeseed by the government - to better
asses near-term demand, particularly after a warmer-than-average start to
the winter season had delayed sowing and threatened output.Indian futures
of mustard or rapeseed fell on Monday to their lowest level in nearly nine
months on prospects of a bumper harvest.Already, flowering of mustard is
up by 10-15 per cent this year from last year, according to the Solvent
Extractors' Association of India."The mustard crop is likely to turn out well
if there is no frost in the next 10 to 15 days," said Inderjeet Singh, a farmer
from Rajasthan, India's top mustard producing state.The western state's
output could rise 21.4 per cent to 3.5 million tonnes in the planting season
that began on Oct. 1, up from a low base the previous year when hail and
rains damaged crops.Production for other main states such as Haryana,
Uttar Pradesh and Punjab are likely to grow 7-32 per cent, according to
estimates from their agriculture departments.Central India's Madhya
Pradesh, however, is predicting a 6 per cent fall as farmers in many of its
districts delayed sowing due to a lack of soil moisture.Drought caused
India's 2014/15 mustard production to fall 23 per cent to 5 million tonnes.
This year's estimate from the top producing states alone is 6.17
million.Despite the higher mustard output, India's imports of vegetable oils
are still expected to rise.The world's biggest importer of vegetable oils
spends more than $10 billion a year on such purchases. This year the
imports may rise as much as 11 per cent to a record 16 million tonnes in the
2015/16 marketing year that started on Nov. 1, according to estimates from
a Mumbai trade body.The table below gives the estimated production of six
Indian states in tonnes.
Jeera settled up on short covering after prices dropped due to ample
stocks position following higher supply in the physical market. Further,
bumper crop this year due to good weather conditions across Gujarat
and Rajasthan limited the upside. Good weather conditions across
Gujarat and Rajasthan may help in bumper crop this year. Limited
buying by stockists and traders at higher levels also weighs on
prices.Gujarat, the top cumin producing state, has planted more cumin
until Jan 18, 2016 compared to last year sowing progress. In Gujarat,
jeera is planted about 10.7% more area at 2,95,200 hectares compared
to 2,66,700 hectares last year same time. As per data, arrivals of Jeera
in Gujarat markets for the calendar year 2015 is lower by 231 % at
about 1.28 lt compared to 4.25 lt last year.According to Dept of
Commerce data, the export of jeera during first 6 month of 2015-16
(Apr-Sep) is 44,140 tonnes, which is, lower as compared to last year
same period. Jeera (cumin) exports have been 1.55 lt in 2014-15.
According to govt data, exports for 2015-16 shows a decline trend
compared to last year until September.
Mustard Seed settled up on late short covering after prices dropped
earlier on oversupply woes in domestic and international market and on
weak demand in export market. Prices of rm seed were also down as
rapeseed meal export is reduced to 1/3rd of last year. Prices of mustard
seed were also under pressure as the government of Rajasthan, India's
biggest rm seed producer, has raised its mustard seed production
estimate to 3.5 million ton compared to 2.9 million ton in last
season.According to latest USDA report, global rapeseed production is
projected at 67.7 million tons, up 180,000 tons compared to last
month's forecast. Canada rapeseed production is raised 1.7 million tons
to 17.2 million tons. China rapeseed imports for 2015/16 may decline
to 4.25 million tons from 4.59 million tons. Rapeseed meal exports
from India slumped 87% on year to 16,855 tons in December on weak
demand from South Korea and Thailand, data released from Solvent
Extractors Association of India (SEA) showed.
5
Fundamental Watch : Castorseed
CASTORSEED PRICES AT KEY SPOT
MARKET
National Market Update
Yellow flowering in castor plants in Mahesana, Banskatha and other regions
have been reported by farmers and it may reduce normal yield expectation by
10 to 15 % in five to six districts and resultantly the crop size would reduce by
50,000 thousand tonne in that particular area. If weather turns rough castor
price may firms up in the season once again. Hailstorm, heavy rains and
higher than normal temperature too may damage castor yield. However, at
current condition market is likely to trade bearish. Stake holders must keep
eye on any possible weather change.
Castor oil from India decreases by 39.22 % to 4026.41tonne during the week
ended 25th Jan-2016. Average FoB quote realized during the week is lower by
4.01% from previous week at $1258.49 per tonne. The gap between the
highest and the lowest quotes is higher by $700 per tonne.
As Per Gujarat Agriculture Directorate latest update castor seed production
in Gujarat may decrease by 13 % this year to 12.66 lakh tonne. Gujarat had
produced 14.56 lakh tonne seed last year. It is second advance estimate by agri
state directorate. In first adv estimate production were pegged at14.68 lakh
tonne. Lower production estimate may hamper declining trend in seed price.
Agriculture statistics Division, DES has released its 1st Adv estimates of
Production of food-grains for 2015-16 on 16.09.2015.It has estimated 19.44
lakh tonne seed production this year. The production target for 2015-16 has
been fixed at 20.34 lakh ton. India has produced 19.63 lakh tonne castor seed
in 2014-15 as per revised 1st Adv estimate. Private trade estimate for the year
is much lower and is between 15 to 16 lakh tonne for 2015-16.However,it is
too early to talk about the final size as sowing is just over.
CENTER 28-Jan-15 27-Jan-15 Change
SUMERPUR NA NA -
PATAN 3075 3150 -75
MEHSANA 2975 3200 -225
BHABAR 3035 3100 -65
HARJI 3050 3075 -25
RAJKOT 3005 3175 -170
KADI 3025 3150 -125
Technical Outlook
6
SELL CORIANDER APR BELOW 6210 TARGET 6165 6015 SL
ABOVE 6275
SELL GUARGUM FEB BELOW 5790 TARGET 5740 5670 SL
ABOVE 5850
SELL TURMERIC APRIL BELOW 8050 TARGET 8006 7946 SL
ABOVE 8110
Disclaimer
 The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any
responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most.
 Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and
up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility.
 The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide
individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments
and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any
transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE.
 The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all
estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the
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Epic research daily agri report 29 jan 2016

  • 1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT 29 January 2016 HNI & NRI Sales Contact Australia Mintara Road, Tarneit, Victoria. Post Code 3029 Phone.: +61 422 063855 HNI & NRI Sales Contact USA 2117 Arbor Vista Dr. Charlotte (NC) Cell: +1 704 249 2315 Toll Free Number 1-800-200-9454 All queries should be directed to Info@epicresearch.co 1 Epic Research India 411 Milinda Manor (Suites 409- 417) 2 RNT Marg. Opp Central Mall Indore (M.P.) Hotline: +91 731 664 2300 Alternate: +91 731 664 2320 Or give us a missed call at 026 5309 0639 Our Presence YOURMINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
  • 2. Market Views 2 MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL TURMERIC APR 8020 8360 8004 8100 -1.27 10905 INTRADAY LEVELS SUPPORT SUPP. 1 7949 SUPP. 2 7799 PIVOT 8155 Turmeric short term trend is bearish and May continue in coming days.RESISTAN CE RES. 1 8305 RES. 2 8511 CORIANDER APR 6105 6405 6105 6275 -0.82 4790 INTRADAY LEVELS SUPPORT SUPP.1 6118 SUPP. 2 5962 PIVOT 6262 Coriander short term trend is bearish and May continue in coming days.RESISTAN CE RES. 1 6418 RES. 2 6562 GUARGUM FEB 5790 5900 5760 5850 +0.34 12323 INTRADAY LEVELS SUPPORT SUPP. 1 5773 SUPP. 2 5697 PIVOT 5837 Guargum short term trend is bearish and May continue in coming days.RESISTAN CE RES. 1 5913 RES. 2 5977 CASTORSEED FEB - - - - - - INTRADAY LEVELS SUPPORT SUPP. 1 - SUPP. 2 - PIVOT - - RESISTAN CE RES. 1 - RES. 2 -
  • 3. Most Active Contract 3 NCDEX INDICES Index Value Pre. Close % Change CASTORSEED - - - CHANA 4242 4255 -0.35 CORIANDER 6275 6327 -0.82 GUARGUM 5850 5830 +20 JEERA 13480 13335 +1.09 MUSTARD SEED 3883 3865 +0.47 SOYABEAN 3794 3720 +1.99 TURMERIC 8100 8204 -1.27 TOP LOSERS SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE CURRENT PRICE CHANGE CHANGE % CHANA 20-04-2016 4243.00 -17.00 -0.40% BARLEY 20-04-2016 1417.00 -5.50 -0.39% TURMERIC 20-04-2016 8160.00 -30.00 -0.37% CORIANDER 20-04-2016 6311.00 -23.00 -0.36% TOP GAINERS SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE CURRENT PRICE CHANGE CHANGE % SOYABEAN 19-02-2016 3794.00 75.00 2.02% JEERA 18-03-2016 13500.00 190.00 1.43% COTTON SEED OIL CAKE AKOLA 19-02-2016 2019.00 21.00 1.05% RAPESEED-MUSTARD SEED 20-04-2016 3888.00 33.00 0.86%
  • 4. Commodities In News 4 ECONOMIC NEWS India's mustard output is expected to grow for the first time in three years this season, government estimates show, as falling temperatures, light rains and the absence of crop-damaging frost raise farmers' hopes after two years of drought.Early projections by the six biggest producing states, which account for more than 80 per cent of the oilseed's output, indicate a gain of about 15 per cent in output. That is not, however, expected to eat into India's vegetable oil imports, which will continue to rise as the population expands.Edible oil traders have been awaiting for news on India's output of mustard - also loosely referred to as rapeseed by the government - to better asses near-term demand, particularly after a warmer-than-average start to the winter season had delayed sowing and threatened output.Indian futures of mustard or rapeseed fell on Monday to their lowest level in nearly nine months on prospects of a bumper harvest.Already, flowering of mustard is up by 10-15 per cent this year from last year, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India."The mustard crop is likely to turn out well if there is no frost in the next 10 to 15 days," said Inderjeet Singh, a farmer from Rajasthan, India's top mustard producing state.The western state's output could rise 21.4 per cent to 3.5 million tonnes in the planting season that began on Oct. 1, up from a low base the previous year when hail and rains damaged crops.Production for other main states such as Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab are likely to grow 7-32 per cent, according to estimates from their agriculture departments.Central India's Madhya Pradesh, however, is predicting a 6 per cent fall as farmers in many of its districts delayed sowing due to a lack of soil moisture.Drought caused India's 2014/15 mustard production to fall 23 per cent to 5 million tonnes. This year's estimate from the top producing states alone is 6.17 million.Despite the higher mustard output, India's imports of vegetable oils are still expected to rise.The world's biggest importer of vegetable oils spends more than $10 billion a year on such purchases. This year the imports may rise as much as 11 per cent to a record 16 million tonnes in the 2015/16 marketing year that started on Nov. 1, according to estimates from a Mumbai trade body.The table below gives the estimated production of six Indian states in tonnes. Jeera settled up on short covering after prices dropped due to ample stocks position following higher supply in the physical market. Further, bumper crop this year due to good weather conditions across Gujarat and Rajasthan limited the upside. Good weather conditions across Gujarat and Rajasthan may help in bumper crop this year. Limited buying by stockists and traders at higher levels also weighs on prices.Gujarat, the top cumin producing state, has planted more cumin until Jan 18, 2016 compared to last year sowing progress. In Gujarat, jeera is planted about 10.7% more area at 2,95,200 hectares compared to 2,66,700 hectares last year same time. As per data, arrivals of Jeera in Gujarat markets for the calendar year 2015 is lower by 231 % at about 1.28 lt compared to 4.25 lt last year.According to Dept of Commerce data, the export of jeera during first 6 month of 2015-16 (Apr-Sep) is 44,140 tonnes, which is, lower as compared to last year same period. Jeera (cumin) exports have been 1.55 lt in 2014-15. According to govt data, exports for 2015-16 shows a decline trend compared to last year until September. Mustard Seed settled up on late short covering after prices dropped earlier on oversupply woes in domestic and international market and on weak demand in export market. Prices of rm seed were also down as rapeseed meal export is reduced to 1/3rd of last year. Prices of mustard seed were also under pressure as the government of Rajasthan, India's biggest rm seed producer, has raised its mustard seed production estimate to 3.5 million ton compared to 2.9 million ton in last season.According to latest USDA report, global rapeseed production is projected at 67.7 million tons, up 180,000 tons compared to last month's forecast. Canada rapeseed production is raised 1.7 million tons to 17.2 million tons. China rapeseed imports for 2015/16 may decline to 4.25 million tons from 4.59 million tons. Rapeseed meal exports from India slumped 87% on year to 16,855 tons in December on weak demand from South Korea and Thailand, data released from Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) showed.
  • 5. 5 Fundamental Watch : Castorseed CASTORSEED PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKET National Market Update Yellow flowering in castor plants in Mahesana, Banskatha and other regions have been reported by farmers and it may reduce normal yield expectation by 10 to 15 % in five to six districts and resultantly the crop size would reduce by 50,000 thousand tonne in that particular area. If weather turns rough castor price may firms up in the season once again. Hailstorm, heavy rains and higher than normal temperature too may damage castor yield. However, at current condition market is likely to trade bearish. Stake holders must keep eye on any possible weather change. Castor oil from India decreases by 39.22 % to 4026.41tonne during the week ended 25th Jan-2016. Average FoB quote realized during the week is lower by 4.01% from previous week at $1258.49 per tonne. The gap between the highest and the lowest quotes is higher by $700 per tonne. As Per Gujarat Agriculture Directorate latest update castor seed production in Gujarat may decrease by 13 % this year to 12.66 lakh tonne. Gujarat had produced 14.56 lakh tonne seed last year. It is second advance estimate by agri state directorate. In first adv estimate production were pegged at14.68 lakh tonne. Lower production estimate may hamper declining trend in seed price. Agriculture statistics Division, DES has released its 1st Adv estimates of Production of food-grains for 2015-16 on 16.09.2015.It has estimated 19.44 lakh tonne seed production this year. The production target for 2015-16 has been fixed at 20.34 lakh ton. India has produced 19.63 lakh tonne castor seed in 2014-15 as per revised 1st Adv estimate. Private trade estimate for the year is much lower and is between 15 to 16 lakh tonne for 2015-16.However,it is too early to talk about the final size as sowing is just over. CENTER 28-Jan-15 27-Jan-15 Change SUMERPUR NA NA - PATAN 3075 3150 -75 MEHSANA 2975 3200 -225 BHABAR 3035 3100 -65 HARJI 3050 3075 -25 RAJKOT 3005 3175 -170 KADI 3025 3150 -125
  • 6. Technical Outlook 6 SELL CORIANDER APR BELOW 6210 TARGET 6165 6015 SL ABOVE 6275 SELL GUARGUM FEB BELOW 5790 TARGET 5740 5670 SL ABOVE 5850 SELL TURMERIC APRIL BELOW 8050 TARGET 8006 7946 SL ABOVE 8110
  • 7. Disclaimer  The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most.  Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility.  The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE.  The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for. Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved.  Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks.  We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.