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Epic research daily agri report 13th april 2016
1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
13 April 2016
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
MAY 8452 8452 8222 8284 -2.47 14610
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8187
SUPP. 2
8089
PIVOT
8319
Turmeric short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8471
RES. 2
8549
CORIANDER
MAY 6946 6946 6664 6664 -3.00 9310
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
6570
SUPP. 2
6476
PIVOT
6758
Coriander short term
trend is bearish and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
6852
RES. 2
7040
GUARGUM
MAY 5950 5960 5750 5750 -3.85 19013
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
5680
SUPP. 2
5610
PIVOT
5820
Guargum short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
5890
RES. 2
6030
CASTORSEED
- - - - - - -
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
-
SUPP. 2
-
PIVOT
-
-
RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
-
RES. 2
-
3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED - - -
CHANA 4927 5028 -2.01
CORIANDER 6879 7090 -2.98
GUARGUM 5740 5910 -2.88
JEERA 15640 16145 -3.13
MUSTARD
SEED
4340 4378 -0.87
SOYABEAN 4093 4086 +0.17
TURMERIC 5480 8566 -1.00
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
CORIANDER 20-04-2016 6879.00 -211.00 -2.98%
JEERA 20-04-2016 15640.00 -480.00 -2.98%
GUAR GUM 20-04-2016 5740.00 -170.00 -2.88%
BARLEY 20-04-2016 1472.00 -29.00 -1.93%
CHANA 20-04-2016 4927.00 -85.00 -1.70%
TURMERIC 20-04-2016 8480.00 -46.00 -0.54%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE CHANGE %
SOY BEAN 20-04-2016 4093.00 7.00 0.17%
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
India's annual monsoon rains are likely to be 105 percent above a long-
term average, the country's only private weather forecaster said on
Monday, snapping two straight years of drought that cut farm output and
hit farmers' income.The July-September monsoon delivers nearly 70
percent of annual rains and waters half of India's farmlands that lack
irrigation facilities.There is a 35 percent probability of above average
rainfall, Skymet said in a statement.Good monsoon rains play a key role in
boosting demand for an array of consumer goods. Agriculture accounts for
about 14 percent of India's $2 trillion economy, Asia's third-biggest, but
supports two-thirds of India's 1.25 billion population.State-run India
Meteorological Department is soon expected to issue its forecast for this
year's monsoon rains.Agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh has said
that the government will not allow companies such as Monsanto to exploit
farmers and it will continue to regulate the prices of seeds and
pharmaceuticals."Monsanto is a good company. It has knowledge, but it
doesn't mean you loot farmers and charge any price," Singh said while
addressing a two-day conference in Delhi on kharif sowing season. The
minister asked government officials to keep a check on the prices of seeds
and any monopolistic activity which impacts farmers' lives. "We will have
to ensure that whether it is price of seed or pharmaceuticals, no one fixes
prices as they want it. We will continue to regulate prices,whenever
required," he said.There should be competition between companies to sell
products, Singh said. The spokesperson of American company Monsanto
declined to comment on the matter.In December, the government had
issued an order to control cotton seed prices, including trait or royalty
value, effective from 2016-17 crop year (July-June).As the arrivals picks
up, maize prices in Bihar and other centres, including Maharashtra, have
become stable during last week with good availability, according to the US
Grains Council (USGC).It is the beginning of the season and as there was
no unseasonal rainfall, the quality of maize being delivered is expected to
be good, according to USGC Representative for India, Bangladesh and Sri
Lanka Amit Sachdev.
Turmeric on NCDEX settled flat on profit booking after gaining due
to good domestic demand and export demand on good quality arrivals
from the producing belts. Prices also seen supported because of poor
output and insufficient arrivals of the new crop in main producing
centres such as Erode and Nizamabad. Though overall arrivals in
Nizamabad are stated to be marginally higher till date, the quantity of
new crop is lower.During the Apr-Dec 2015, India exported 68,500 ton
turmeric as against 64,785 ton a year ago because of increased demand
from Gulf countries. Sources also stated that total daily arrivals
of28000 bags have been reported in Nizamabad mandi. However, the
total production in the coming year is expected to be around 68 lakh
bags, up 20 lakh bags from the last year.Turmeric prices expected to
look up in the coming week because of fears of weak output caused by
lower rains of 2015. Steady buying from traders will support the market
sentiments to trade higher. Expectations of fresh demand ahead of
festive and marriage season may also support the prices in the futures
market.
Chana on NCDEX settled up amid expectations of lower output from
the major producing belts. The sources stated that total production will
witness some decline due to weak crop in Rajasthan and Madhya
Pradesh. The daily arrivals have also been reduced sharply from last
few days. The country who is the second largest producer of Chickpea
is set to produce record Chana in 2015-16 at 1.01 million
tons.Rajasthan is the second largest Chana producing state and
according to the State Department of Agriculture, chana yields are
estimated to be higher this year. According to the State Department of
Agriculture, production of chana is estimated to be 1.20 million tons in
Rajasthan this year while it was 9.11 million tons in the previous year.
According to FCI sources, purchasing of Rabi pulses has just started
and till Sunday from all over country around 58.5 tons of chana and
13.9 tons of masoor have been purchased. Government has asked to
buy Rabi pulses from Mar 7 onwards but due to un-seasonal rain it has
been delayed.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Cotton
COTTON PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKETNational Market Update
Drought in parts of Southern States is likely to affect the production of
cotton. According to official sources, the production of cotton is likely to
decline by 40% in Tamil Nadu compared to 5-6 lakh bales during previous
year.
The government is expediting its work to bring out a local genetically-
modified version of cotton seed by next year. The Central Institute for Cotton
Research (CICR) has been doing research in GM cotton for quite some time
now. In a recent meeting, the issue was discussed and CICR has been asked to
expedite research work and come out with GM cotton as soon as by next year.
The government has decided to promote cultivation of indigenous cotton
varieties this season. In 2015-16 crop year (July-June), there was a significant
damage to cotton crop because of whitefly and pink bollworm pest attack in
states like Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh.
According to a recent forecast by the weather office, summer planting of
cotton is likely to be delayed as above normal heat wave conditions is likely to
prevail over central and northwest India from April to June this year.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has estimated cotton production at
345 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) in the 2015/16 season that started on October
01, 2015 lower by 37.75 lakh bales from earlier estimate. With carryover stock
of about 73.60 lakh bales and imports of about 14 lakh bales, the total
availability is estimated at around 432.60 lakh bales. However, CAI has
pegged the total consumption at around 304 lakh bales, of which 270 lakh
bales is estimated to be consumed by mills, 24 lakh bales by small scale units,
while 10 lakh bales is likely to be non-mill consumption.
CENTER 12-Apr-15 11-Apr-15 Change
RAJKOT Closed 5095 -
BHIWANI 5100 5100 UNCH
ADAMPUR 5050 5010 +40
AHMEDABAD 5000 5000 UNCH
GONDAL 5065 4945 +120
GUNTUR NA NA -
RAICHUR 5150 5080 +70
6. Technical Outlook
6
SELL CORIANDER MAY BELOW 6660 TARGET 6615 6515 SL
ABOVE 6725
SELL GUARGUM MAY BELOW 5800 TARGET 5750 5680 SL
ABOVE 5860
SELL TURMERIC MAY BELOW 8250 TARGET 8206 8146 SL
ABOVE 8310
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