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1. DAILYAGRI COMMODITY REPORT
02 Feb 2015
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
DHANIYA
APR 7784 7855 7700 7845 +0.49 13040
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
7745
SUPP. 2
7645
PIVOT
7800
Dhaniya short term
trend is down, further
more downside is
expected in comimg
days.
RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
7900
RES. 2
7955
CASTORSEED
FEB 4111 4150 4076 4145 +0.73 28770
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
4097
SUPP. 2
4050
PIVOT
4124
Castorseed short term
trend is down, Prices
expected to go down in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
4071
RES. 2
4098
TURMERIC
APR 8290 8300 7966 7978 -3.58 31975
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
7863
SUPP. 2
7747
PIVOT
8081
Turmeric short term
trend is down and may
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8197
RES. 2
8415
GUARGUM
FEB 10350 10350 9980 10150 -2.31 8057
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
9970
SUPP. 2
9790
PIVOT
10160
Guargum Short term
trend is Down,
Expecting price may go
Down in coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
10340
RES. 2
10530

3. Most Active Contract
3
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
CHANA 20-02-2015 3497.00 81.00 2.37%
SOYABEAN 20-02-2015 3404.00 71.00 2.13%
REFINED SOY OIL 20-02-2015 617.50 8.40 1.38%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED
20-04-2015 3339.00 27.00 0.82%
CASTOR SEED NEW 20-02-2015 4145.00 30.00 0.73%
CORIANDER 20-04-2015 7845.00 38.00 0.49%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
20-02-2015 1442.00 5.00 0.35%
BARLEY 20-04-2015 1235.00 1.50 0.12%
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
TURMERIC 20-04-2015 7978.00 -296.00 -3.58%
V 797 KAPAS 27-02-2015 700.00 -17.00 -2.37%
JEERA 20-02-2015 14440.00 -170.00 -1.16%
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 4145 4115 +0.73
CHANA 3497 3416 +2.37
CORIANDER 7845 7807 +0.49
GUARGUM 10150 10390 -2.31
JEERA 14440 14610 -1.16
MUSTARD SEED 3339 3312 +0.82
SOYABEAN 3404 3333 +2.13
TURMERIC 8048 8328 -3.36

4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
 The world sugar market is poised for the first of what could be
several years of production shortfall, as the poor finances of many
mills finally hits home, Green Pool said. The Australia-based analysis
group, the day after lifting its forecast for the global sugar output
surplus in 2014-15 to 1.73m tonnes, said in its first forecast for next
season that the market faces a deficit of 5.02m tonnes.The forecast,
one of the first industry estimates for 2015-16, reflected in part an
expectation of a further rise in consumption, which Green Pool sees
rising by 1.7% to 181.6m tonnes. India, the second-ranked producing
country, will see a drop of some 800,000 tonnes to 234.7m tonnes in
output, weighed by the pressure on mills' margins from elevated cane
prices, set by the state, and falling sugar values. Green Pool
highlighted the poor financial state of mills, for which prospects may
only deteriorate if the government fails to deliver on an idea of
subsidising sugar exports. Meanwhile China will see a 100,000-tonne
drop to 11.6m tonnes in output, lifting its domestic production deficit
to 4.2m tonnes, again against a backdrop of cash-strapped mills.
Beijing efforts to underpine cane prices for producers, while
depressing sugar prices for consumers, has resulted in mills facing
bankruptcy”. In sugar beet, Associated British Foods earlier this
month unveiled the closure of a further two processing plants in
northern China. Government is likely to produce 26 million tonnes of
sugar in the current season ending on September 30, as much as 4 per
cent higher than an earlier estimate, the head of an industry body said
on Friday. Higher production in the western state of Maharashtra and
southern Karnataka state prompted an upward revision in output, A
Vellayan, president of the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) The
ISMA had earlier forecast output of 25 million tonnes to 25.5 million
tonnes for the current season. The Maharashtra government has given
'no objection certificate' for field trial of five genetically modified
(GM) crops - brinjal, maize, rice, chickpea and cotton - in the state. .
 Guar gum for February delivery was trading down on Friday as
higher arrivals amidst low demand pressurized prices. At NCDEX
.With Guar being used for oil drilling purpose, export demand from US
is expected to rise on a rise in Crude Oil prices. Absence of a rise in
Crude Oil rates is affecting Guar prices.Guar gum exports during
ongoing fiscal year 2014-15 is expected to decline 25% to 4 lakh to 4.5
lakh tons because there is weak demand for guar gum in the
International market due to slump in crude prices . India’s guar gum
export was near 6 lakh tons during the last year. Poor quality stocks
with farmers too resulted in prices falling. As per Rajasthan Agri
Department’s 2nd advance projection, during 2014-15, production of
guar is expected nearly 27.95 lakh ton in the state while earlier
expectation was of 14-15 lakh ton. India exported more than 6 lakh MT
Guargum vs nearly 4 lakh MT in the previous year due to a significant
fall in rates. However this also en-sured a fall in Export realization
which fell by 45% in reterms.
 NCDEX Chana February futures traded up by 2.37 per cent to 3497
levels on Friday India's NCDEX . Clear weather in producing area and
improved demand supported the trend as sentiments remain firm.
Prospects of drier weather in the growing states in coming days
supported the market sentiments further. The recent rains in growing
areas in Rajasthan, MP and UP are reportedly beneficial for the
standing crop.However, lower sowing reports and expectations of a
pick up in demand at the lower levels are likely to support the prices in
coming weeks. But a fall in Rabi sowing area for Rabi Pulses and
lower International production prospects could support prices in
medium to long term.As per USDA, expected pulses production in
USA is up by 8% to 2,232,630 metric tonne during 2014 from last year.
indicates Rabi Pulses sowing down 6% from 6.43 lakh ha as on
24.12.2013 to 6.02 lakh ha as on 24.12.2014.

5. 5
Fundamental Watch :Castorseed
CASTORSEED ARRIVALS AT KEY SPOT
MARKET
National Market Update
 Castor seed market continues to trade under pressure on higher carryout for
the season and weak demand from planters end. Despite lower crop estimate
availability for seed would be higher than expectation this year. Futures
market may trade below 4000 as arrival pressure is expected from Feb end .
Some farmers (around 20 % ) may retain stock and would prefer to sell cumin
and mustard stock retained from last year. They are getting better price for
these commodities at this point of time. However,80 percent farmers would
sell castor crop and they would sell 60 percent of their produce in March and
April. It would pressurise cash market. Cash market price may touch
3700/3800 per qtl. in March -April Stock is said to be more than assumed
trade estimate. Total stock of seed could be over 6.5 lakh tones at this point of
time. Market experts assume that this year total crushing up to December has
not been more than 9 lakh tones as export demand for oil was seen lower than
normal expectation. Despite various estimates of lower crop size ranging from
12.5 to 14.5 lakh tonne, outlook remains bearish for seed in the medium term.
Arrivals from old crop in various markets of Gujarat have increased in the
month of January and would continue to increase till April. FOB quote at
Kandla decreased considerably from $1440 per tonne to $1410 per tonne
during the week under review. It is likely to rule in the range of $1390 to
$1400 in the month of February. Demand from China, EU, US and Japan is
expected to remain weak till January and February. realised on Jan-2014. It is
traded at Rs 7700 per tonne at Kandla.
Some fresh inquiry has been reported at $1410 per tonne for castor oil at
Kandla Port.Buyers are interested to buy at $1400 per tonne.As seed is under
pressure dip in oil price seems to be on card.Castor meal demand is likely to
decrease further as prices are ruling higher. It is being traded at $133 per tonne
at kandla.Only need based buying is on the card. Bulk buying is expected in
March –April, the peak arrival season and likely lower price.
CENTER 30-Jan-15 29-Jan-15 Change
SUMERPUR 80 80 UNCH
JODHPUR 40 NA -
RAJKOT 470 430 +40
PATAN 1350 1200 +150
GONDAL 163 127 +36
DEESA 780 800 -20
KADI 1440 720 +720

6. Technical Outlook
6
BUY DHANIYA APR ABOVE 7855 TGTS 7885,7935 SL 7815 SELL GUARGUM FEB BELOW 10040 TGTS 9990,9890 SL 10130
SELL CASTORSEED FEB BELOW 4130 TGTS 4090,4040 SL 4180 SELL TMC BELOW 7960 TGTS 7910,7810 SL ABOVE 8050

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